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Prediction Model

Yamato Buff/Nerf Watch

This page is the hero-side version of the item prediction screen. The target is whether a hero looks more likely to be buffed, nerfed, or left alone in a future patch. This first page is Yamato-only so the predictors can be reviewed before expanding to every hero.

Best read: this is now a three-stage experiment. It first asks whether Yamato is likely to change, then which broad mechanic would be selected, then the direction of that selected mechanic. Later stages are conditional and must not be read as standalone certainty.

Stage 1: Will Yamato receive any balance change in the next patch?
Stage 2: If Yamato changes, which mechanic family is most likely to be selected?
Stage 3: If that family is selected, does its patch direction look like buff, nerf, or mixed/rework?
Future learning: Weekly snapshots preserve hero stats and ability values over time. They are enabled as model features only after changed and unchanged patches both have adequate coverage.

Three-Stage Next-Patch Forecast

1

Will Yamato change?

53.0%

Estimated chance of any Yamato balance change. No-change estimate: 47.0%.

Disclaimer: Experimental. This is based on one hero's patch history and has not been proven accurate — Stage 1 and Stage 2 don't yet beat a simple "no change" guess on holdout data. Treat every number on this page as a rough signal, not a confirmed forecast.

Stages 2 and 3: target and direction if Yamato changes

Mechanic	Selected if changed	Direction	Buff if selected	Nerf if selected	Mixed/rework if selected	Combined priority
Flying Slash	43.8%	Nerf	2.8%	63.5%	33.7%	23.2%
Crimson Slash	8.9%	Mixed Or Rework	14.5%	39.5%	46.0%	4.7%
Power Slash	7.1%	Nerf	8.3%	49.4%	42.3%	3.7%
Shadow Transformation	3.7%	Mixed Or Rework	20.9%	39.5%	39.6%	2.0%
Weapon	3.7%	Mixed Or Rework	19.0%	33.7%	47.3%	1.9%
Spirit	2.0%	Mixed Or Rework	14.0%	33.3%	52.7%	1.1%
Vitality	0.9%	Mixed Or Rework	18.7%	35.9%	45.4%	0.5%

Combined priority multiplies Stage 1 by Stage 2 to help sort the watchlist. It is not a calibrated probability that the named mechanic will change.

Validation and Data Readiness

Every stage uses older patches for training and newer patches for testing. The current patch calendar contains 147 update dates through 2026-08-02.

Stage	Test rows	Balanced accuracy	Macro F1
Stage 1 - hero changedWhether Yamato receives any balance change.	30	50.0%	0.455
Stage 2 - mechanic selectedWhich mechanic family is selected if Yamato changes.	210	50.0%	0.484
Stage 3 - conditional directionBuff, nerf, or mixed/rework after a mechanic is selected.	2	0.0%	0.000

Performance feature gate: withheld. Historical pre-patch win-rate coverage is 6.1%; the required coverage is 80.0%. Performance features are withheld because missingness is too sparse or too strongly associated with whether Yamato changed.

The weekly collector now stores all hero performance, base stats, and ability properties without overwriting prior snapshots. Once enough unchanged and changed patches have comparable coverage, performance and ability-strength features can enter training without leaking the answer.

Yamato Patch Changes

49 Yamato patch-change rows are included from the recent patch window.

Patch	Predictor	Direction	Before	After	Notes
2026-07-28	flying_slash_t2ability:flying_slash	Nerf	+40 Spirit Power	+35	Flying Slash T2 reduced from +40 Spirit Power to +35
2026-07-28	flying_slash_t3_charge_timeability:flying_slash	Buff	4s	5s	Flying Slash T3 Charge Time increased from 4s to 5s
2026-07-28	flying_slash_t3_charges_from_2_to_1ability:flying_slash	Rework	+2	+1	Flying Slash T3 charges from +2 to +1
2026-07-09	flying_slash_rangeability:flying_slash	Nerf	28m	26m	Flying Slash range reduced from 28m to 26m
2026-07-09	flying_slash_t3_ally_targetingability:flying_slash	Rework			Flying Slash T3 Ally Targeting now requires alt cast input
2026-07-09	flying_slash_t3_charge_delayability:flying_slash	Buff	3s	4s	Flying Slash T3 Charge Delay increased from 3s to 4s
2026-05-31	flying_slash_cast_rangeability:flying_slash	Nerf	30m	28m	Flying Slash cast range reduced from 30m to 28m
2026-05-31	power_slash_spirit_scalingability:power_slash	Nerf	2.1	1	Power Slash spirit scaling reduced from 2.1 to 1.85
2026-05-22	fixed_crimson_slash_not_being_able_to_hit_anything_if_the_player_is_aimed_too_hiability:crimson_slash	Rework			Fixed Crimson Slash not being able to hit anything if the player is aimed too high or low
2026-05-22	flying_slash_rangeability:flying_slash	Buff	25m	30m	Flying Slash range increased from 25m to 30m
2026-05-22	flying_slash_t2ability:flying_slash	Nerf			Flying Slash T2 no longer grants +20m Cast Range
2026-05-22	flying_slash_t3ability:flying_slash	Buff			Flying Slash T3 now also grants +15m Cast Range
2026-05-22	flying_slash_t3ability:flying_slash	Buff	+1 Charge	+2	Flying Slash T3 increased from +1 Charge to +2
2026-05-22	power_slash_post_cast_timeability:power_slash	Nerf	0.4s	0	Power Slash post cast time reduced from 0.4s to 0.2s
2026-05-22	power_slash_spirit_scalingability:power_slash	Buff	1.86s	2	Power Slash spirit scaling increased from 1.86s to 2.1
2026-05-22	shadow_transformation_t1ability:shadow_transformation	Buff	+5 Weapon Damage	+7	Shadow Transformation T1 increased from +5 Weapon Damage to +7
2026-03-06	crimson_slash_cooldownability:crimson_slash	Buff	15s	16s	Crimson Slash cooldown increased from 15s to 16s
2026-03-06	crimson_slash_fire_rate_reductionability:crimson_slash	Buff	-18%	-30%	Crimson Slash Fire Rate reduction increased from -18% to -30%
2026-03-06	crimson_slash_t1ability:crimson_slash	Rework	"-26% Fire Rate"	"On Hit: +30% Melee Damage for 4s"	Crimson Slash T1 changed from "-26% Fire Rate" to "On Hit: +30% Melee Damage for 4s"
2026-03-06	crimson_slash_t3ability:crimson_slash	Buff			Crimson Slash T3 now also increases spirit scaling (+0.6)
2026-03-06	crimson_slash_t3ability:crimson_slash	Buff	-9s Cooldown	-10s	Crimson Slash T3 increased from -9s Cooldown to -10s
2026-03-06	fixed_flying_slash_t3_ally_cast_stopping_too_soon_before_reaching_the_playerability:flying_slash	Rework			Fixed Flying Slash T3 ally cast stopping too soon before reaching the player
2026-03-06	flying_slash_cooldownability:flying_slash	Buff	21s	36s	Flying Slash cooldown increased from 21s to 36s
2026-03-06	flying_slash_isability:flying_slash	Rework			Flying Slash is now light melee damage rather than spirit
2026-03-06	flying_slash_rangeability:flying_slash	Buff	20m	25m	Flying Slash range increased from 20m to 25m
2026-03-06	flying_slash_slowability:flying_slash	Buff	-30%	-50%	Flying Slash slow increased from -30% to -50%
2026-03-06	flying_slash_t1ability:flying_slash	Rework	"25% Slow"	"-18s Cooldown"	Flying Slash T1 changed from "25% Slow" to "-18s Cooldown"
2026-03-06	flying_slash_t2ability:flying_slash	Rework	"+20m Cast Range"	"+20m Cast Range and gain +40 Spirit for 6s"	Flying Slash T2 changed from "+20m Cast Range" to "+20m Cast Range and gain +40 Spirit for 6s"
2026-03-06	flying_slash_t3ability:flying_slash	Rework	"Can Grapple	ally heroes and +6 Weapon Damage for 10s" to "Can Grapple to ally heroes	Flying Slash T3 changed from "Can Grapple to ally heroes and +6 Weapon Damage for 10s" to "Can Grapple to ally heroes. Becomes Charged and grants +2 charges (3s between charges)."
2026-03-06	flying_strike_renamed_to_flying_slashability:flying_slash	Rework			Flying Strike renamed to Flying Slash
2026-03-06	power_slash_base_abilityability:power_slash	Rework			Power Slash base ability now has +60% Bullet Resist while channeling
2026-03-06	power_slash_being_held_downability:power_slash	Nerf			Power Slash being held down no longer automatically fires it
2026-03-06	power_slash_cooldownability:power_slash	Buff	10.5s	12s	Power Slash cooldown increased from 10.5s to 12s
2026-03-06	power_slash_slash_lengthability:power_slash	Nerf	25m	22m	Power Slash Slash Length reduced from 25m to 22m
2026-03-06	power_slash_t1ability:power_slash	Rework	"+60% Bullet Resist while channeling"	"40% Slow for 3s"	Power Slash T1 changed from "+60% Bullet Resist while channeling" to "40% Slow for 3s"
2026-03-06	power_slash_t2ability:power_slash	Rework	"-2s Cooldown and 40% slow for 3s"	"-4s Cooldown"	Power Slash T2 changed from "-2s Cooldown and 40% slow for 3s" to "-4s Cooldown"
2026-03-06	power_slash_t3ability:power_slash	Buff			Power Slash T3 now also grants +8m Range
2026-03-06	you_canability:power_slash	Rework			You can now cast Parry directly while channeling Power Slash to fire the Power Slash and parry
2026-03-06	shadow_transformation_bullet_and_spirit_resistability:shadow_transformation	Nerf	40%	30%	Shadow Transformation Bullet and Spirit Resist reduced from 40% to 30%
2026-03-06	shadow_transformation_cooldownability:shadow_transformation	Buff	110s	130s	Shadow Transformation cooldown increased from 110s to 130s
2026-03-06	shadow_transformation_t1ability:shadow_transformation	Rework	"+14% Fire Rate"	"+5 Weapon Damage"	Shadow Transformation T1 changed from "+14% Fire Rate" to "+5 Weapon Damage"
2026-03-06	shadow_transformation_t2ability:shadow_transformation	Buff			Shadow Transformation T2 now also reduces cooldown by 25s
2026-03-06	shadow_transformation_t3ability:shadow_transformation	Buff	+20% Bullet and Spirit Resist	+30%	Shadow Transformation T3 increased from +20% Bullet and Spirit Resist to +30%
2026-03-06	fixed_flying_strike_triggering_heavy_melee_procs_rather_than_light_melee_damageweapon	Rework			Fixed Flying Strike triggering heavy melee procs rather than light melee (damage amount was light melee still)
2025-11-21	crimson_slash_cooldownability:crimson_slash	Buff	11.5s	15s	Crimson Slash cooldown increased from 11.5s to 15s
2025-11-21	crimson_slash_t3ability:crimson_slash	Buff	-5.75s Cooldown	-9s	Crimson Slash T3 increased from -5.75s Cooldown to -9s
2025-11-21	power_slash_low_charge_damage_from_40_to_30ability:power_slash	Rework	40%	30%	Power Slash low charge damage from 40% to 30%
2025-11-21	power_slash_medium_charge_damage_from_60_to_50ability:power_slash	Rework	60%	50%	Power Slash medium charge damage from 60% to 50%
2025-11-21	base_regenvitality	Nerf	2.0	1	Base regen reduced from 2.0 to 1.0