Deadlock Item Balance Predictions
Experimental model table for all current items
Generated from the current item change database and Deadlock API item stats.
Prediction Model

What this page is trying to do

This table is an experimental balance watch list, not a forecast. It does not know Valve's plans. It looks at item history, item type, cost, API item stats, win-rate movement, and usage signals to produce an exploratory model score, not a calibrated probability.

Read this first: the "no balance change" group has very few historical examples compared to the "balance change" group, and in validation the model did not reliably tell the two groups apart. A high experimental score mostly reflects that most items in the training data eventually changed — it is not yet a demonstrated forecast of a future patch. Treat every row as exploratory until the model is retrained and validated on dated, held-out patches.
Best read: use a high experimental score plus high bootstrap stability as the more interesting rows, and treat "Disagreement" rows as unreliable. Bootstrap stability comes from a separate resampled re-run of the models, not the same run behind the score and direction above — low stability means a model changed its mind when the data was resampled, or that Random Forest and Gradient Boosting's re-run did not land on the same label.
Source file dates for this build:
  • Random Forest change/direction predictions: 2026-09-26
  • Gradient Boosting change/direction predictions: 2026-09-26
  • Random Forest bootstrap stability: 2026-09-26
  • Gradient Boosting bootstrap stability: 2026-09-26
Experimental score
Random Forest's training-set score for "belongs in the balance-change group," not a calibrated probability of a future change. See the warning above.
Direction
Gradient Boosting guess for the likely direction if the item is changed.
Direction confidence
How strongly the direction model leans toward buff or nerf. Also a training-set score, not a calibrated probability.
Bootstrap stability
From a separate resampled re-run of the models (not the same run behind the score and direction above): how often that re-run landed on the same final prediction, and whether Random Forest and Gradient Boosting's re-run agreed on a label. Shows "Disagreement" when they don't — a sign the headline call is shaky, not a recheck of that exact call.
Notes
A plain-English warning label generated from the model scores and bootstrap stability.
Lasso Predictor Screen

The L1 logistic screen is the lasso-style step. It tries to zero out weaker predictors before the tree models run. Stage 1 predicts whether an item changes. Stage 2 only looks at changed items and predicts buff versus nerf.

Stage 1 only Stage 2 only Both stages use the default text color.

Kept predictors

  • current_cost
  • days_since_last_change
  • avg_days_between_change_patches
  • unknown_change_count
  • first_change_date_ordinal
  • last_change_date_ordinal
  • item_id
  • api_global_wins
  • api_global_losses
  • api_global_matches
  • api_global_players
  • api_global_avg_buy_time_s
  • api_global_avg_sell_time_s
  • api_hero_matches_total
  • api_hero_avg_players
  • api_hero_max_players
  • api_hero_avg_buy_time_s
  • api_daily_bucket_count
  • api_daily_matches_total
  • api_daily_avg_players
  • api_daily_avg_buy_time_s
  • buff_change_count
  • nerf_change_count
  • api_global_avg_sell_time_relative

Dropped predictors

  • is_current_item_guess
  • current_tier
  • current_default_stat_count
  • current_enhanced_stat_count
  • has_enhanced
  • change_row_count
  • unique_patch_count
  • buff_change_count
  • nerf_change_count
  • rework_change_count
  • fix_change_count
  • added_change_count
  • removed_change_count
  • changes_last_30_days
  • changes_last_60_days
  • changes_last_90_days
  • changes_last_180_days
  • api_global_win_rate
  • api_global_loss_rate
  • api_global_avg_buy_time_relative
  • api_global_avg_sell_time_relative
  • api_hero_bucket_count
  • api_hero_avg_win_rate
  • api_hero_min_win_rate
  • api_hero_max_win_rate
  • api_daily_avg_win_rate
  • api_daily_min_win_rate
  • api_daily_max_win_rate
  • api_daily_last_win_rate
  • api_daily_first_win_rate
  • api_daily_win_rate_change
  • api_daily_win_rate_slope
  • wiki_categories_Items|Tier 1 items|Spirit Items
  • wiki_categories_Items|Tier 1 items|Vitality Items
  • wiki_categories_Items|Tier 1 items|Weapon Items
  • wiki_categories_Items|Tier 2 items|Spirit Items
  • wiki_categories_Items|Tier 2 items|Vitality Items
  • wiki_categories_Items|Tier 2 items|Weapon Items
  • wiki_categories_Items|Tier 3 items|Spirit Items
  • wiki_categories_Items|Tier 3 items|Vitality Items
  • wiki_categories_Items|Tier 3 items|Weapon Items
  • wiki_categories_Items|Tier 4 items|Spirit Items
  • wiki_categories_Items|Tier 4 items|Vitality Items
  • wiki_categories_Items|Tier 4 items|Weapon Items
  • item_type_Spirit
  • item_type_Vitality
  • item_type_Weapon
  • item_name_infrequent_sklearn
  • api_item_type_upgrade
  • unknown_change_count
  • last_change_date_ordinal
  • item_id
Item Prediction Table

156 items are included. The table is sorted by highest experimental score first, then bootstrap stability.

Item Experimental score Direction Direction confidence Bootstrap stability Notes
Silence Wave 98% Nerf 68% 60% Moderate nerf signal. Review with patch context.
Rescue Beam 98% Buff 67% 78% Strong stable buff signal.
Disarming Hex 98% Buff 75% 97% Strong stable buff signal.
Dispel Magic 97% Buff 54% 85% Change signal is present, but buff versus nerf direction is unclear.
Spirit Sap 97% Buff 74% 87% Strong stable buff signal.
Spirit Snatch 97% Buff 73% 100% Strong stable buff signal.
Rusted Barrel 97% Buff 74% 92% Strong stable buff signal.
Unstoppable 97% Nerf 56% 78% Change signal is present, but buff versus nerf direction is unclear.
Restorative Locket 97% Buff 55% 68% Change signal is present, but buff versus nerf direction is unclear.
Titanic Magazine 97% Buff 73% 97% Strong stable buff signal.
Slowing Hex 97% Nerf 75% 92% Strong stable nerf signal.
Colossus 97% Nerf 58% 78% Change signal is present, but buff versus nerf direction is unclear.
Escalating Resilience 97% Buff 70% 82% Strong stable buff signal.
Metal Skin 96% Nerf 64% 77% Strong stable nerf signal.
Decay 96% Buff 51% 62% Change signal is present, but buff versus nerf direction is unclear.
Majestic Leap 96% Buff 76% 100% Strong stable buff signal.
Duration Extender 96% Buff 58% 82% Change signal is present, but buff versus nerf direction is unclear.
Suppressor 95% Buff 55% 77% Change signal is present, but buff versus nerf direction is unclear.
Toxic Bullets 95% Buff 88% 98% Strong stable buff signal.
Burst Fire 95% Buff 84% 98% Strong stable buff signal.
Kinetic Dash 95% Nerf 75% 82% Strong stable nerf signal.
Juggernaut 95% Buff 58% 85% Change signal is present, but buff versus nerf direction is unclear.
Return Fire 95% Buff 69% 77% Strong stable buff signal.
Hunter's Aura 95% Buff 79% 93% Strong stable buff signal.
Spirit Shredder Bullets 95% Nerf 63% 90% Strong stable nerf signal.
Battle Vest 95% Buff 81% 92% Strong stable buff signal.
Superior Duration 95% Buff 66% 77% Strong stable buff signal.
Mystic Vulnerability 95% Buff 76% 70% Moderate buff signal. Review with patch context.
Bullet Resist Shredder 95% Nerf 68% 77% Strong stable nerf signal.
Cultist Sacrifice 95% Buff 73% 92% Strong stable buff signal.
Counterspell 95% Buff 53% 57% Unstable prediction. Treat this as a watch-list item, not a call.
Alchemical Fire 95% Buff 66% 97% Strong stable buff signal.
Greater Expansion 94% Nerf 80% 97% Strong stable nerf signal.
Spirit Rend 94% Nerf 73% 95% Strong stable nerf signal.
Weighted Shots 94% Buff 62% 63% Moderate buff signal. Review with patch context.
Vampiric Burst 94% Buff 68% 87% Strong stable buff signal.
Inhibitor 94% Buff 53% 80% Change signal is present, but buff versus nerf direction is unclear.
Spellslinger 94% Nerf 73% 78% Strong stable nerf signal.
Tesla Bullets 94% Nerf 69% 83% Strong stable nerf signal.
Fleetfoot 93% Buff 70% 77% Strong stable buff signal.
Weapon Shielding 93% Buff 68% 60% Moderate buff signal. Review with patch context.
Tankbuster 93% Nerf 54% 72% Change signal is present, but buff versus nerf direction is unclear.
Berserker 93% Nerf 63% 93% Strong stable nerf signal.
Surge of Power 93% Buff 86% 98% Strong stable buff signal.
Bullet Resilience 93% Buff 62% 78% Strong stable buff signal.
Mystic Shot 93% Nerf 72% 72% Moderate nerf signal. Review with patch context.
Express Shot 93% Buff 55% 68% Change signal is present, but buff versus nerf direction is unclear.
Fortitude 93% Buff 87% 98% Strong stable buff signal.
Mystic Slow 93% Buff 86% 92% Strong stable buff signal.
Knockdown 92% Nerf 74% 90% Strong stable nerf signal.
Split Shot 92% Buff 52% 63% Change signal is present, but buff versus nerf direction is unclear.
Swift Striker 92% Buff 87% 95% Strong stable buff signal.
Radiant Regeneration 92% Buff 81% 92% Strong stable buff signal.
Hollow Point 92% Nerf 72% 92% Strong stable nerf signal.
Point Blank 92% Buff 70% 92% Strong stable buff signal.
Plated Armor 92% Buff 61% 72% Moderate buff signal. Review with patch context.
Guardian Ward 92% Buff 61% 83% Strong stable buff signal.
Mystic Burst 92% Nerf 51% 70% Change signal is present, but buff versus nerf direction is unclear.
Witchmail 92% Buff 80% 65% Moderate buff signal. Review with patch context.
Rebuttal 92% Nerf 58% 62% Change signal is present, but buff versus nerf direction is unclear.
Intensifying Magazine 92% Nerf 73% 100% Strong stable nerf signal.
Healbane 92% Buff 55% 62% Change signal is present, but buff versus nerf direction is unclear.
Armor Piercing Rounds 92% Nerf 79% 68% Moderate nerf signal. Review with patch context.
Recharging Rush 91% Buff 72% 98% Strong stable buff signal.
Crushing Fists 91% Buff 81% 95% Strong stable buff signal.
Refresher 91% Nerf 87% 90% Strong stable nerf signal.
Healing Rite 91% Buff 83% 97% Strong stable buff signal.
Ethereal Shift 91% Buff 70% 72% Moderate buff signal. Review with patch context.
Divine Barrier 91% Buff 77% 88% Strong stable buff signal.
Diviner's Kevlar 91% Buff 70% 87% Strong stable buff signal.
Torment Pulse 90% Buff 77% 98% Strong stable buff signal.
Close Quarters 90% Buff 79% 88% Strong stable buff signal.
Reactive Barrier 90% Nerf 55% 73% Change signal is present, but buff versus nerf direction is unclear.
Phantom Strike 90% Nerf 66% 72% Moderate nerf signal. Review with patch context.
Bullet Lifesteal 90% Buff 90% 98% Strong stable buff signal.
Restorative Shot 90% Buff 88% 98% Strong stable buff signal.
Spirit Shielding 90% Nerf 70% 52% Unstable prediction. Treat this as a watch-list item, not a call.
Heroic Aura 90% Buff 80% 100% Strong stable buff signal.
Silencer 90% Nerf 53% 78% Change signal is present, but buff versus nerf direction is unclear.
Boundless Spirit 90% Nerf 73% 98% Strong stable nerf signal.
Lucky Shot 89% Nerf 81% 98% Strong stable nerf signal.
Spirit Resilience 89% Buff 83% 88% Strong stable buff signal.
Arcane Surge 89% Buff 72% 85% Strong stable buff signal.
Glass Cannon 89% Nerf 81% 98% Strong stable nerf signal.
Focus Lens 88% Buff 80% 82% Strong stable buff signal.
Rapid Recharge 88% Buff 73% 68% Moderate buff signal. Review with patch context.
Long Range 88% Nerf 57% 62% Change signal is present, but buff versus nerf direction is unclear.
Headhunter 88% Nerf 73% 92% Strong stable nerf signal.
Cursed Relic 88% Buff 55% 63% Change signal is present, but buff versus nerf direction is unclear.
Veil Walker 88% Buff 85% 100% Strong stable buff signal.
Monster Rounds 88% Buff 79% 85% Strong stable buff signal.
Transcendent Cooldown 88% Nerf 81% 95% Strong stable nerf signal.
Debuff Reducer 88% Buff 64% 78% Strong stable buff signal.
Stamina Mastery 87% Nerf 69% 73% Moderate nerf signal. Review with patch context.
Healing Nova 87% Nerf 69% 82% Strong stable nerf signal.
Melee Charge 87% Nerf 86% 90% Strong stable nerf signal.
Ricochet 87% Nerf 70% 90% Strong stable nerf signal.
Enchanter's Emblem 87% Nerf 50% 58% Unstable prediction. Treat this as a watch-list item, not a call.
Fury Trance 87% Buff 81% 95% Strong stable buff signal.
Extra Spirit 87% Nerf 59% 78% Change signal is present, but buff versus nerf direction is unclear.
Extra Charge 87% Nerf 58% 53% Unstable prediction. Treat this as a watch-list item, not a call.
Mystic Regeneration 86% Buff 84% 92% Strong stable buff signal.
Golden Goose Egg 86% Buff 86% 98% Strong stable buff signal.
Superior Cooldown 86% Nerf 62% 93% Strong stable nerf signal.
Indomitable 86% Buff 85% 90% Strong stable buff signal.
Spellbreaker 86% Buff 81% 75% Strong stable buff signal.
Compress Cooldown 86% Nerf 89% 90% Strong stable nerf signal.
Headshot Booster 86% Buff 77% 88% Strong stable buff signal.
Spirit Burn 85% Nerf 73% 62% Moderate nerf signal. Review with patch context.
Extra Health 85% Buff 76% 80% Strong stable buff signal.
Cold Front 85% Buff 65% 62% Moderate buff signal. Review with patch context.
Mystic Expansion 84% Nerf 67% 78% Strong stable nerf signal.
Leech 84% Buff 82% 90% Strong stable buff signal.
Rapid Rounds 84% Nerf 57% 65% Change signal is present, but buff versus nerf direction is unclear.
Opening Rounds 84% Nerf 51% 72% Change signal is present, but buff versus nerf direction is unclear.
Extended Magazine 83% Buff 83% 88% Strong stable buff signal.
Extra Stamina 82% Nerf 65% 80% Strong stable nerf signal.
Extra Regen 81% Nerf 52% 58% Unstable prediction. Treat this as a watch-list item, not a call.
Warp Stone 80% Nerf 68% 95% Strong stable nerf signal.
Capacitor 80% Nerf 70% 93% Strong stable nerf signal.
Lightning Scroll 80% Buff 68% 75% Strong stable buff signal.
Cheat Death 79% Nerf 60% 80% Strong stable nerf signal.
Slowing Bullets 78% Nerf 68% 77% Strong stable nerf signal.
Spiritual Overflow 77% Buff 65% 68% Moderate buff signal. Review with patch context.
Shadow Weave 77% Buff 71% 82% Strong stable buff signal.
Spirit Lifesteal 76% Buff 81% 68% Moderate buff signal. Review with patch context.
Infuser 75% Buff 59% 62% Change signal is present, but buff versus nerf direction is unclear.
Scourge 74% Nerf 51% 75% Change signal is present, but buff versus nerf direction is unclear.
Active Reload 74% Buff 66% 88% Moderate buff signal. Review with patch context.
Mercurial Magnum 74% Buff 86% 98% Moderate buff signal. Review with patch context.
Mystic Reverb 70% Nerf 61% 73% Moderate nerf signal. Review with patch context.
Improved Spirit 45% Nerf 82% Disagreement Random Forest and Gradient Boosting's bootstrap re-run land on different final labels. This doesn't directly contradict the score above, but treat this row as unreliable.
Frenzy 38% Nerf 55% Disagreement Random Forest and Gradient Boosting's bootstrap re-run land on different final labels. This doesn't directly contradict the score above, but treat this row as unreliable.
Sharpshooter 37% Buff 50% Disagreement Random Forest and Gradient Boosting's bootstrap re-run land on different final labels. This doesn't directly contradict the score above, but treat this row as unreliable.
Lifestrike 36% Buff 72% Disagreement Random Forest and Gradient Boosting's bootstrap re-run land on different final labels. This doesn't directly contradict the score above, but treat this row as unreliable.
Escalating Exposure 34% Buff 77% Disagreement Random Forest and Gradient Boosting's bootstrap re-run land on different final labels. This doesn't directly contradict the score above, but treat this row as unreliable.
Quicksilver Reload 34% Buff 60% 48% Unstable prediction. Treat this as a watch-list item, not a call.
Spirit Strike 34% Nerf 85% Disagreement Random Forest and Gradient Boosting's bootstrap re-run land on different final labels. This doesn't directly contradict the score above, but treat this row as unreliable.
High-Velocity Rounds 34% Buff 65% Disagreement Random Forest and Gradient Boosting's bootstrap re-run land on different final labels. This doesn't directly contradict the score above, but treat this row as unreliable.
Stalker 33% Nerf 84% Disagreement Random Forest and Gradient Boosting's bootstrap re-run land on different final labels. This doesn't directly contradict the score above, but treat this row as unreliable.
Ballistic Enchantment 33% Buff 65% Disagreement Random Forest and Gradient Boosting's bootstrap re-run land on different final labels. This doesn't directly contradict the score above, but treat this row as unreliable.
Enduring Speed 33% Nerf 79% Disagreement Random Forest and Gradient Boosting's bootstrap re-run land on different final labels. This doesn't directly contradict the score above, but treat this row as unreliable.
Blood Tribute 32% Buff 56% Disagreement Random Forest and Gradient Boosting's bootstrap re-run land on different final labels. This doesn't directly contradict the score above, but treat this row as unreliable.
Melee Lifesteal 31% Buff 89% Disagreement Random Forest and Gradient Boosting's bootstrap re-run land on different final labels. This doesn't directly contradict the score above, but treat this row as unreliable.
Magic Carpet 31% Buff 83% Disagreement Random Forest and Gradient Boosting's bootstrap re-run land on different final labels. This doesn't directly contradict the score above, but treat this row as unreliable.
Crippling Headshot 29% Nerf 53% Disagreement Random Forest and Gradient Boosting's bootstrap re-run land on different final labels. This doesn't directly contradict the score above, but treat this row as unreliable.
Grit 28% Buff 87% Disagreement Random Forest and Gradient Boosting's bootstrap re-run land on different final labels. This doesn't directly contradict the score above, but treat this row as unreliable.
Weakening Headshot 28% Buff 58% Disagreement Random Forest and Gradient Boosting's bootstrap re-run land on different final labels. This doesn't directly contradict the score above, but treat this row as unreliable.
Healing Booster 27% Buff 83% Disagreement Random Forest and Gradient Boosting's bootstrap re-run land on different final labels. This doesn't directly contradict the score above, but treat this row as unreliable.
Healing Tempo 26% Nerf 80% Disagreement Random Forest and Gradient Boosting's bootstrap re-run land on different final labels. This doesn't directly contradict the score above, but treat this row as unreliable.
Siphon Bullets 26% Nerf 78% Disagreement Random Forest and Gradient Boosting's bootstrap re-run land on different final labels. This doesn't directly contradict the score above, but treat this row as unreliable.
Echo Shard 26% Nerf 57% Disagreement Random Forest and Gradient Boosting's bootstrap re-run land on different final labels. This doesn't directly contradict the score above, but treat this row as unreliable.
Trophy Collector 26% Buff 56% Disagreement Random Forest and Gradient Boosting's bootstrap re-run land on different final labels. This doesn't directly contradict the score above, but treat this row as unreliable.
Arctic Blast 25% Buff 77% Disagreement Random Forest and Gradient Boosting's bootstrap re-run land on different final labels. This doesn't directly contradict the score above, but treat this row as unreliable.
Vortex Web 24% Buff 86% Disagreement Random Forest and Gradient Boosting's bootstrap re-run land on different final labels. This doesn't directly contradict the score above, but treat this row as unreliable.
Sprint Boots 24% Nerf 73% Disagreement Random Forest and Gradient Boosting's bootstrap re-run land on different final labels. This doesn't directly contradict the score above, but treat this row as unreliable.