Deadlock Hero Balance Predictions
Wraith buff/nerf predictor prototype
Generated from the Wraith predictor DuckDB, recent patch history, and a three-stage prediction model.
Prediction Model
Wraith Buff/Nerf Watch
This page is the hero-side version of the item prediction screen. The target is whether a hero looks more likely to be buffed, nerfed, or left alone in a future patch. This first page is Wraith-only so the predictors can be reviewed before expanding to every hero.
Best read: this is now a three-stage experiment. It first asks whether Wraith is likely to change, then which broad mechanic would be selected, then the direction of that selected mechanic. Later stages are conditional and must not be read as standalone certainty.
- Stage 1
- Will Wraith receive any balance change in the next patch?
- Stage 2
- If Wraith changes, which mechanic family is most likely to be selected?
- Stage 3
- If that family is selected, does its patch direction look like buff, nerf, or mixed/rework?
- Future learning
- Weekly snapshots preserve hero stats and ability values over time. They are enabled as model features only after changed and unchanged patches both have adequate coverage.
Three-Stage Next-Patch Forecast
1
Will Wraith change?
8.5%
Estimated chance of any Wraith balance change. No-change estimate: 91.5%.
Disclaimer: Experimental. This is based on one hero's patch history and has not been proven accurate — Stage 1 and Stage 2 don't yet beat a simple "no change" guess on holdout data. Treat every number on this page as a rough signal, not a confirmed forecast.
Stages 2 and 3: target and direction if Wraith changes
| Mechanic | Selected if changed | Direction | Buff if selected | Nerf if selected | Mixed/rework if selected | Combined priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Project Mind | 1.9% | Mixed Or Rework | 12.1% | 17.9% | 69.9% | 0.2% |
| Full Auto | 1.8% | Mixed Or Rework | 13.0% | 15.7% | 71.3% | 0.1% |
| Telekinesis | 1.8% | Mixed Or Rework | 13.0% | 15.7% | 71.3% | 0.1% |
| Weapon | 1.5% | Mixed Or Rework | 15.3% | 16.2% | 68.4% | 0.1% |
| Vitality | 1.5% | Mixed Or Rework | 15.3% | 16.2% | 68.4% | 0.1% |
| Spirit | 1.3% | Mixed Or Rework | 15.3% | 16.2% | 68.4% | 0.1% |
| Card Trick | 1.2% | Mixed Or Rework | 16.8% | 14.7% | 68.5% | 0.1% |
Combined priority multiplies Stage 1 by Stage 2 to help sort the watchlist. It is not a calibrated probability that the named mechanic will change.
Validation and Data Readiness
Every stage uses older patches for training and newer patches for testing. The current patch calendar contains 138 update dates through 2026-06-12.
| Stage | Test rows | Balanced accuracy | Macro F1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stage 1 - hero changedWhether Wraith receives any balance change. | 28 | 50.0% | 0.491 |
| Stage 2 - mechanic selectedWhich mechanic family is selected if Wraith changes. | 196 | 50.0% | 0.495 |
| Stage 3 - conditional directionBuff, nerf, or mixed/rework after a mechanic is selected. | 4 | 0.0% | 0.000 |
Performance feature gate: withheld. Historical pre-patch win-rate coverage is 0.0%; the required coverage is 80.0%. Performance features are withheld because missingness is too sparse or too strongly associated with whether Wraith changed.
The weekly collector now stores all hero performance, base stats, and ability properties without overwriting prior snapshots. Once enough unchanged and changed patches have comparable coverage, performance and ability-strength features can enter training without leaking the answer.
Wraith Patch Changes
52 Wraith patch-change rows are included from the recent patch window.
| Patch | Predictor | Direction | Before | After | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-06 | card_trickability:card_trick | Rework | Card Trick now randomly pulls cards out of a 2 deck stack (lowers overall variance. Gets a new 2 deck stack after that is depleted) | ||
| 2026-03-06 | card_trickability:card_trick | Rework | Card Trick now highlights the card that will be throw next. | ||
| 2026-03-06 | card_trickability:card_trick | Rework | Card Trick now has unique sounds for each card suite that is summoned. | ||
| 2026-03-06 | card_trick_base_charge_countability:card_trick | Buff | 1 | 2 | Card Trick base charge count increased from 1 to 2 |
| 2026-03-06 | card_trick_base_damageability:card_trick | Nerf | 60 | 45 | Card Trick base damage reduced from 60 to 45 |
| 2026-03-06 | card_trick_buildupability:card_trick | Rework | Card Trick buildup now takes 20% longer | ||
| 2026-03-06 | card_trick_canability:card_trick | Rework | Card Trick can now be alt casted to fire from the inverse order | ||
| 2026-03-06 | card_trick_cardsability:card_trick | Rework | Card Trick cards now have specific suites with special bonuses. | ||
| 2026-03-06 | card_trick_cooldownability:card_trick | Buff | 0.5s | 0 | Card Trick cooldown increased from 0.5s to 0.6s |
| 2026-03-06 | card_trick_cooldownability:card_trick | Nerf | 0.75s | 0 | Card Trick cooldown reduced from 0.75s to 0.5s |
| 2026-03-06 | card_trick_gaining_charges_ap_or_shopability:card_trick | Nerf | Card Trick gaining charges (AP or shop) no longer automatically builds them up | ||
| 2026-03-06 | card_trick_heartability:card_trick | Rework | Card Trick heart now only heals for half the amount for secondary targets in the area | ||
| 2026-03-06 | card_trick_heart_scalingability:card_trick | Nerf | 1.25 | 1 | Card Trick Heart scaling reduced from 1.25 to 1.0 |
| 2026-03-06 | card_trick_jokerability:card_trick | Nerf | Card Trick Joker no longer bounces to other targets | ||
| 2026-03-06 | card_trick_post_cast_timeability:card_trick | Nerf | 0.2s | 0 | Card Trick post cast time reduced from 0.2s to 0.1 |
| 2026-03-06 | card_trick_spadeability:card_trick | Nerf | +70% | +60% | Card Trick Spade reduced from +70% to +60% |
| 2026-03-06 | card_trick_spirit_scalingability:card_trick | Nerf | 1.0 | 0 | Card Trick spirit scaling reduced from 1.0 to 0.55 |
| 2026-03-06 | card_trick_t1ability:card_trick | Buff | "+1 Charges" | "+2 Charges" | Card Trick T1 increased from "+1 Charges" to "+2 Charges" |
| 2026-03-06 | card_trick_t2ability:card_trick | Buff | "+35 Damage" | "+40 Damage and increased spirit scaling (+0 | Card Trick T2 changed from "+35 Damage" to "+40 Damage and increased spirit scaling (+0.4)" |
| 2026-03-06 | card_trick_t2ability:card_trick | Buff | "+50% Card Summon Rate and 30% slow for 1s" | "Improves Card Suites and increased joker chances" (new totals are Spades: 2 | Card Trick T2 changed from "+50% Card Summon Rate and 30% slow for 1s" to "Improves Card Suites and increased joker chances" (new totals are Spades: 2.5x, Diamond: -13%, Heal: 150/2.0, Clubs: 50%, Joker: 1/5th chance) |
| 2026-03-06 | card_trick_t3_heart_healing_scaleability:card_trick | Nerf | +0.75 | +0 | Card Trick T3 Heart healing scale reduced from +0.75 to +0.5 |
| 2026-03-06 | card_trick_t3_heart_scalingability:card_trick | Buff | 0.5 | 0 | Card Trick T3 Heart scaling increased from 0.5 to 0.75 |
| 2026-03-06 | card_trick_t3_spade_bonusability:card_trick | Nerf | +50% | +40% | Card Trick T3 Spade bonus reduced from +50% to +40% |
| 2026-03-06 | fixed_card_trick_heart_heal_doing_full_value_for_non_heroes_instead_of_halfability:card_trick | Rework | Fixed Card Trick Heart heal doing full value for non-heroes (instead of half) | ||
| 2026-03-06 | full_autoability:full_auto | Nerf | Full Auto no longer affects allies (previously gave half fire rate to allies) | ||
| 2026-03-06 | full_auto_base_abilityability:full_auto | Rework | Full Auto base ability now deals +2 Spirit Damage Per Bullet (0.03 Spirit Scaling) | ||
| 2026-03-06 | full_auto_cooldownability:full_auto | Nerf | 48s | 45s | Full Auto cooldown reduced from 48s to 45s |
| 2026-03-06 | full_auto_durationability:full_auto | Nerf | Full Auto duration no longer scales with Spirit Power | ||
| 2026-03-06 | full_auto_t1ability:full_auto | Buff | -14s Cooldown | -20s | Full Auto T1 increased from -14s Cooldown to -20s |
| 2026-03-06 | full_auto_t2ability:full_auto | Rework | "2.52 Spirit Damage per Bullet" | "+10% Fire Rate and +3s Duration" | Full Auto T2 changed from "2.52 Spirit Damage per Bullet" to "+10% Fire Rate and +3s Duration" |
| 2026-03-06 | full_auto_t3ability:full_auto | Buff | "+15% Bullet and Spirit Lifesteal and increased spirit scaling" | "Unlimited Ammo and increased spirit scaling (+0 | Full Auto T3 changed from "+15% Bullet and Spirit Lifesteal and increased spirit scaling" to "Unlimited Ammo and increased spirit scaling (+0.06)" |
| 2026-03-06 | full_auto_t3ability:full_auto | Rework | Full Auto T3 now interrupts/finishes an ongoing reload | ||
| 2026-03-06 | fixed_project_mind_interaction_with_stunsability:project_mind | Rework | Fixed Project Mind interaction with stuns | ||
| 2026-03-06 | project_mind_cooldownability:project_mind | Buff | 42s | 46s | Project Mind cooldown increased from 42s to 46s |
| 2026-03-06 | project_mind_t3_cooldownability:project_mind | Buff | -28s | -32s | Project Mind T3 cooldown increased from -28s to -32s |
| 2026-03-06 | telekinesisability:telekinesis | Nerf | Telekinesis no longer has a projectile, it now instantly lifts the target for 0.75s and gives you a location target on the ground. After the 0.75s is over, it'll throw the hero towards that location up to 15m away. The target will take 100 Damage, 40% move slow and prevent stamina/movement-item and ability usage for 3s. | ||
| 2026-03-06 | telekinesis_cast_delayability:telekinesis | Buff | 0.3s | 0 | Telekinesis cast delay increased from 0.3s to 0.35s |
| 2026-03-06 | telekinesis_cast_rangeability:telekinesis | Nerf | 13m | 10m | Telekinesis cast range reduced from 13m to 10m |
| 2026-03-06 | telekinesis_cast_rangeability:telekinesis | Nerf | 14m | 13m | Telekinesis cast range reduced from 14m to 13m |
| 2026-03-06 | telekinesis_cast_rangeability:telekinesis | Nerf | 20m | 14m | Telekinesis cast range reduced from 20m to 14m |
| 2026-03-06 | telekinesis_cast_timeability:telekinesis | Buff | 0.1s | 0 | Telekinesis cast time increased from 0.1s to 0.3s |
| 2026-03-06 | telekinesis_cast_timeability:telekinesis | Buff | 0.35s | 0 | Telekinesis cast time increased from 0.35s to 0.45s |
| 2026-03-06 | telekinesis_cooldownability:telekinesis | Buff | 110s | 120s | Telekinesis cooldown increased from 110s to 120s |
| 2026-03-06 | telekinesis_cooldownability:telekinesis | Buff | 120s | 130s | Telekinesis cooldown increased from 120s to 130s |
| 2026-03-06 | telekinesis_debuff_durationability:telekinesis | Nerf | 3s | 2 | Telekinesis debuff duration reduced from 3s to 2.75s |
| 2026-03-06 | telekinesis_debuff_durationability:telekinesis | Nerf | 2.75s | 2 | Telekinesis debuff duration reduced from 2.75s to 2.25s |
| 2026-03-06 | telekinesis_t1ability:telekinesis | Rework | "-25s Cooldown" | "+100 Damage" | Telekinesis T1 changed from "-25s Cooldown" to "+100 Damage" |
| 2026-03-06 | telekinesis_t2ability:telekinesis | Rework | "+0.75s Silence and Disarm Duration" | "-50s Cooldown" | Telekinesis T2 changed from "+0.75s Silence and Disarm Duration" to "-50s Cooldown" |
| 2026-03-06 | telekinesis_t3ability:telekinesis | Rework | "Bounces | nearby target" to "+1 | Telekinesis T3 changed from "Bounces to nearby target" to "+1.5s Debuff duration and +6m Throw and Cast Range |
| 2026-03-06 | telekinesis_throw_rangeability:telekinesis | Nerf | 14m | 13m | Telekinesis throw range reduced from 14m to 13m |
| 2025-11-21 | card_trick_base_damageability:card_trick | Buff | 55 | 60 | Card Trick base damage increased from 55 to 60 |
| 2025-11-21 | project_mind_cooldownability:project_mind | Nerf | 48s | 42s | Project Mind cooldown reduced from 48s to 42s |
Hero Balance Predictions
Wraith buff/nerf prototype
Forecasts whether Wraith is likely to change next patch, using recent patch history and the Wraith predictor DuckDB.