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Prediction Model

Warden Buff/Nerf Watch

This page is the hero-side version of the item prediction screen. The target is whether a hero looks more likely to be buffed, nerfed, or left alone in a future patch. This first page is Warden-only so the predictors can be reviewed before expanding to every hero.

Best read: this is now a three-stage experiment. It first asks whether Warden is likely to change, then which broad mechanic would be selected, then the direction of that selected mechanic. Later stages are conditional and must not be read as standalone certainty.

Stage 1: Will Warden receive any balance change in the next patch?
Stage 2: If Warden changes, which mechanic family is most likely to be selected?
Stage 3: If that family is selected, does its patch direction look like buff, nerf, or mixed/rework?
Future learning: Weekly snapshots preserve hero stats and ability values over time. They are enabled as model features only after changed and unchanged patches both have adequate coverage.

Three-Stage Next-Patch Forecast

1

Will Warden change?

19.9%

Estimated chance of any Warden balance change. No-change estimate: 80.1%.

Disclaimer: Experimental. This is based on one hero's patch history and has not been proven accurate — Stage 1 and Stage 2 don't yet beat a simple "no change" guess on holdout data. Treat every number on this page as a rough signal, not a confirmed forecast.

Stages 2 and 3: target and direction if Warden changes

Mechanic	Selected if changed	Direction	Buff if selected	Nerf if selected	Mixed/rework if selected	Combined priority
Binding Word	11.0%	Nerf	26.8%	63.5%	9.7%	2.2%
Last Stand	10.3%	Buff	42.6%	40.0%	17.4%	2.0%
Weapon	10.2%	Nerf	28.7%	63.1%	8.1%	2.0%
Willpower	9.6%	Buff	42.4%	40.1%	17.5%	1.9%
Alchemical Flask	9.4%	Buff	42.8%	26.9%	30.3%	1.9%
Vitality	7.7%	Nerf	29.5%	46.7%	23.8%	1.5%
Spirit	5.9%	Mixed Or Rework	31.9%	20.5%	47.6%	1.2%

Combined priority multiplies Stage 1 by Stage 2 to help sort the watchlist. It is not a calibrated probability that the named mechanic will change.

Validation and Data Readiness

Every stage uses older patches for training and newer patches for testing. The current patch calendar contains 138 update dates through 2026-06-12.

Stage	Test rows	Balanced accuracy	Macro F1
Stage 1 - hero changedWhether Warden receives any balance change.	28	50.0%	0.472
Stage 2 - mechanic selectedWhich mechanic family is selected if Warden changes.	196	50.0%	0.483
Stage 3 - conditional directionBuff, nerf, or mixed/rework after a mechanic is selected.	5	33.3%	0.190

Performance feature gate: withheld. Historical pre-patch win-rate coverage is 0.0%; the required coverage is 80.0%. Performance features are withheld because missingness is too sparse or too strongly associated with whether Warden changed.

The weekly collector now stores all hero performance, base stats, and ability properties without overwriting prior snapshots. Once enough unchanged and changed patches have comparable coverage, performance and ability-strength features can enter training without leaking the answer.

Warden Patch Changes

44 Warden patch-change rows are included from the recent patch window.

Patch	Predictor	Direction	Before	After	Notes
2026-06-12	alchemical_flask_spirit_scalingability:alchemical_flask	Nerf	0.73	0	Alchemical Flask spirit scaling reduced from 0.73 to 0.63
2026-06-12	alchemical_flask_t2ability:alchemical_flask	Nerf	+40 Damage	+35	Alchemical Flask T2 reduced from +40 Damage to +35
2026-06-12	alchemical_flask_t2ability:alchemical_flask	Buff	-20% Weapon Damage	-25%	Alchemical Flask T2 increased from -20% Weapon Damage to -25%
2026-06-12	binding_word_t3ability:binding_word	Nerf	-18s Cooldown	-14s	Binding Word T3 reduced from -18s Cooldown to -14s
2026-06-12	last_stand_lifestealability:last_stand	Buff	65%	75%	Last Stand lifesteal increased from 65% to 75%
2026-06-12	last_stand_t2ability:last_stand	Buff	-30s Cooldown	-35s	Last Stand T2 increased from -30s Cooldown to -35s
2026-06-12	last_stand_t3ability:last_stand	Buff	+3s Duration	+4s	Last Stand T3 increased from +3s Duration to +4s
2026-06-12	willpower_spirit_scalingability:willpower	Buff	+0.5	+0	Willpower spirit scaling increased from +0.5 to +0.8
2026-06-12	bullet_falloffweapon	Nerf	20m->58m	18m->47m	Bullet falloff reduced from 20m->58m to 18m->47m
2026-05-22	binding_word_t2ability:binding_word	Nerf			Binding Word T2 no longer increases cast range by +12m
2026-05-22	willpower_t3_debuff_resistanceability:willpower	Rework			Willpower T3 debuff resistance now retroactively applies to existing debuffs when cast
2026-05-22	bullet_damage_per_boonweapon	Nerf	0.38	0	Bullet damage per boon reduced from 0.38 to 0.34
2026-03-06	alchemical_flask_t2ability:alchemical_flask	Buff			Alchemical Flask T2 now also increases Weapon Damage Reduction by -20%
2026-03-06	alchemical_flask_t2ability:alchemical_flask	Nerf			Alchemical Flask T2 no longer increases radius by 1m
2026-03-06	alchemical_flask_t2_damageability:alchemical_flask	Buff	+36	+40	Alchemical Flask T2 damage increased from +36 to +40
2026-03-06	alchemical_flask_t3ability:alchemical_flask	Buff			Alchemical Flask T3 now also increases radius by 2m
2026-03-06	alchemical_flask_t3_cooldownability:alchemical_flask	Buff	-6.5s	-7s	Alchemical Flask T3 cooldown increased from -6.5s to -7s
2026-03-06	alchemical_flask_weapon_damage_reductionability:alchemical_flask	Nerf	-30%	-25%	Alchemical Flask Weapon Damage reduction reduced from -30% to -25%
2026-03-06	binding_word_cast_rangeability:binding_word	Nerf	20m	15m	Binding Word cast range reduced from 20m to 15m
2026-03-06	binding_word_cooldownability:binding_word	Nerf	37s	34s	Binding Word cooldown decreased from 37s to 34s
2026-03-06	binding_word_t1ability:binding_word	Rework	"+1s Immobilize Duration"	"+20% Bullet Damage to Trapped heroes for 5s"	Binding Word T1 changed from "+1s Immobilize Duration" to "+20% Bullet Damage to Trapped heroes for 5s"
2026-03-06	binding_word_t2ability:binding_word	Rework	"-19s Cooldown"	"+0	Binding Word T2 changed from "-19s Cooldown" to "+0.75s Duration and +12m Cast Range"
2026-03-06	binding_word_t2ability:binding_word	Rework			Binding Word T2 now increases trap duration by 0.75s
2026-03-06	binding_word_t3ability:binding_word	Rework	"+20% Bullet Damage"	"-18s Cooldown and Silences enemies until they escape or are trapped"	Binding Word T3 changed from "+20% Bullet Damage" to "-18s Cooldown and Silences enemies until they escape or are trapped"
2026-03-06	last_stand_bullet_and_spirit_resist_while_channelingability:last_stand	Nerf	60%	50%	Last Stand Bullet and Spirit Resist while channeling reduced from 60% to 50%
2026-03-06	last_stand_channeling_bullet_and_spirit_resistability:last_stand	Buff	30%	60%	Last Stand Channeling bullet and spirit resist increased from 30% to 60%
2026-03-06	last_stand_radiusability:last_stand	Nerf	13m	12m	Last Stand radius reduced from 13m to 12m
2026-03-06	last_stand_t1ability:last_stand	Buff	+3m Radius	+4m	Last Stand T1 increased from +3m Radius to +4m
2026-03-06	last_stand_t3ability:last_stand	Buff			Last Stand T3 now also increases Bullet and Spirit Resist while channeling by +30%
2026-03-06	last_stand_t3ability:last_stand	Nerf			Last Stand T3 no longer grants +50% Bullet and Spirit Resist
2026-03-06	last_stand_t3ability:last_stand	Buff			Last Stand T3 now also grants you Unstoppable while channeling
2026-03-06	last_stand_t3_durationability:last_stand	Buff	+2.5s	+3s	Last Stand T3 duration increased from +2.5s to +3s
2026-03-06	willpower_barrierability:willpower	Rework			Willpower barrier now scales with spirit power in the base ability (+0.5)
2026-03-06	willpower_cooldownability:willpower	Nerf	42s	40	Willpower cooldown reduced from 42s to 40
2026-03-06	willpower_durationability:willpower	Nerf	7s	5s	Willpower duration reduced from 7s to 5s
2026-03-06	willpower_t2ability:willpower	Buff			Willpower T2 now also increases duration by +2s
2026-03-06	willpower_t2_cooldown_from_19s_to_22sability:willpower	Rework	-19s	-22s	Willpower T2 cooldown from -19s to -22s
2026-03-06	willpower_t3ability:willpower	Buff	"+150 Barrier Health and improved scaling (3.7)"	"+40% Debuff Resistance and improved scaling (2	Willpower T3 changed from "+150 Barrier Health and improved scaling (3.7)" to "+40% Debuff Resistance and improved scaling (2.5)"
2026-03-06	bullet_growth_per_boonweapon	Nerf	0.44	0	Bullet growth per boon reduced from 0.44 to 0.38
2025-11-21	alchemical_flask_radiusability:alchemical_flask	Nerf	6.5m	5	Alchemical Flask radius reduced from 6.5m to 5.5m
2025-11-21	alchemical_flask_t2ability:alchemical_flask	Buff			Alchemical Flask T2 now also grants +1m
2025-11-21	health_regenvitality	Nerf	3	2	Health regen reduced from 3 to 2
2025-11-21	bullet_damageweapon	Buff	16.2	16	Bullet damage increased from 16.2 to 16.6
2025-11-21	bullet_damage_growthweapon	Buff	0.44	0	Bullet damage growth increased from 0.44 to 0.48