Deadlock Hero Balance Predictions
Vyper buff/nerf predictor prototype
Generated from the Vyper predictor DuckDB, recent patch history, and a three-stage prediction model.
Prediction Model
Vyper Buff/Nerf Watch
This page is the hero-side version of the item prediction screen. The target is whether a hero looks more likely to be buffed, nerfed, or left alone in a future patch. This first page is Vyper-only so the predictors can be reviewed before expanding to every hero.
Best read: this is now a three-stage experiment. It first asks whether Vyper is likely to change, then which broad mechanic would be selected, then the direction of that selected mechanic. Later stages are conditional and must not be read as standalone certainty.
- Stage 1
- Will Vyper receive any balance change in the next patch?
- Stage 2
- If Vyper changes, which mechanic family is most likely to be selected?
- Stage 3
- If that family is selected, does its patch direction look like buff, nerf, or mixed/rework?
- Future learning
- Weekly snapshots preserve hero stats and ability values over time. They are enabled as model features only after changed and unchanged patches both have adequate coverage.
Three-Stage Next-Patch Forecast
1
Will Vyper change?
29.7%
Estimated chance of any Vyper balance change. No-change estimate: 70.3%.
Disclaimer: Experimental. This is based on one hero's patch history and has not been proven accurate — Stage 1 and Stage 2 don't yet beat a simple "no change" guess on holdout data. Treat every number on this page as a rough signal, not a confirmed forecast.
Stages 2 and 3: target and direction if Vyper changes
| Mechanic | Selected if changed | Direction | Buff if selected | Nerf if selected | Mixed/rework if selected | Combined priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Petrifying Bola | 18.2% | Buff | 48.1% | 40.8% | 11.1% | 5.4% |
| Slither | 11.6% | Buff | 46.2% | 43.0% | 10.7% | 3.4% |
| Screwjab Dagger | 10.5% | Buff | 44.8% | 42.2% | 13.0% | 3.1% |
| Lethal Venom | 6.1% | Buff | 47.3% | 36.2% | 16.5% | 1.8% |
| Spirit | 5.1% | Buff | 53.9% | 24.9% | 21.3% | 1.5% |
| Weapon | 4.7% | Buff | 53.9% | 24.9% | 21.3% | 1.4% |
| Vitality | 4.1% | Buff | 46.8% | 35.7% | 17.5% | 1.2% |
Combined priority multiplies Stage 1 by Stage 2 to help sort the watchlist. It is not a calibrated probability that the named mechanic will change.
Validation and Data Readiness
Every stage uses older patches for training and newer patches for testing. The current patch calendar contains 151 update dates through 2026-09-16.
| Stage | Test rows | Balanced accuracy | Macro F1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stage 1 - hero changedWhether Vyper receives any balance change. | 31 | 50.0% | 0.456 |
| Stage 2 - mechanic selectedWhich mechanic family is selected if Vyper changes. | 217 | 50.0% | 0.491 |
| Stage 3 - conditional directionBuff, nerf, or mixed/rework after a mechanic is selected. | 3 | 50.0% | 0.400 |
Performance feature gate: withheld. Historical pre-patch win-rate coverage is 8.6%; the required coverage is 80.0%. Performance features are withheld because missingness is too sparse or too strongly associated with whether Vyper changed.
The weekly collector now stores all hero performance, base stats, and ability properties without overwriting prior snapshots. Once enough unchanged and changed patches have comparable coverage, performance and ability-strength features can enter training without leaking the answer.
Vyper Patch Changes
13 Vyper patch-change rows are included from the recent patch window.
| Patch | Predictor | Direction | Before | After | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | petrifying_bola_cooldownability:petrifying_bola | Buff | 105s | 115s | Petrifying Bola cooldown increased from 105s to 115s |
| 2026-09-16 | slither_t3_barrier_durationability:slither | Nerf | 5s | 4s | Slither T3 barrier duration reduced from 5s to 4s |
| 2026-08-12 | petrifying_bola_petrify_durationability:petrifying_bola | Buff | 2s | 2 | Petrifying Bola petrify duration increased from 2s to 2.2s |
| 2026-08-12 | petrifying_bola_radiusability:petrifying_bola | Buff | 8m | 12m | Petrifying Bola radius increased from 8m to 12m |
| 2026-06-30 | screwjab_dagger_t3ability:screwjab_dagger | Buff | 4s | 2s | Screwjab Dagger T3 now also reduces charge delay from 4s to 2s |
| 2026-06-30 | slither_t3_spirit_scalingability:slither | Buff | 0.6 | 0 | Slither T3 spirit scaling increased from 0.6 to 0.8 |
| 2026-05-22 | screwjab_dagger_t2_bullet_resist_per_stack_from_5_to_6ability:screwjab_dagger | Rework | -5% | -6% | Screwjab Dagger T2 bullet resist per stack from -5% to -6% |
| 2026-05-22 | screwjab_dagger_t3ability:screwjab_dagger | Buff | Screwjab Dagger T3 now also increases max stacks by 2 | ||
| 2026-04-30 | lethal_venom_cast_rangeability:lethal_venom | Nerf | 15m | 10m and now scales with boons (0 | Lethal Venom cast range reduced from 15m to 10m and now scales with boons (0.2) |
| 2026-04-30 | lethal_venom_cooldownability:lethal_venom | Buff | 24s | 28s | Lethal Venom cooldown increased from 24s to 28s |
| 2026-04-30 | lethal_venom_t2ability:lethal_venom | Buff | -8s Cooldown | -12s | Lethal Venom T2 increased from -8s Cooldown to -12s |
| 2026-04-30 | fixed_armor_piercing_rounds_doing_damage_through_petrifyvitality | Rework | Fixed Armor Piercing Rounds doing damage through Petrify | ||
| 2025-11-21 | health_per_boonvitality | Buff | 33 | 35 | Health per boon increased from 33 to 35 |
Hero Balance Predictions
Vyper buff/nerf prototype
Forecasts whether Vyper is likely to change next patch, using recent patch history and the Vyper predictor DuckDB.