Deadlock Hero Balance Predictions
Viscous buff/nerf predictor prototype
Generated from the Viscous predictor DuckDB, recent patch history, and a three-stage prediction model.
Prediction Model
Viscous Buff/Nerf Watch
This page is the hero-side version of the item prediction screen. The target is whether a hero looks more likely to be buffed, nerfed, or left alone in a future patch. This first page is Viscous-only so the predictors can be reviewed before expanding to every hero.
Best read: this is now a three-stage experiment. It first asks whether Viscous is likely to change, then which broad mechanic would be selected, then the direction of that selected mechanic. Later stages are conditional and must not be read as standalone certainty.
- Stage 1
- Will Viscous receive any balance change in the next patch?
- Stage 2
- If Viscous changes, which mechanic family is most likely to be selected?
- Stage 3
- If that family is selected, does its patch direction look like buff, nerf, or mixed/rework?
- Future learning
- Weekly snapshots preserve hero stats and ability values over time. They are enabled as model features only after changed and unchanged patches both have adequate coverage.
Three-Stage Next-Patch Forecast
1
Will Viscous change?
16.7%
Estimated chance of any Viscous balance change. No-change estimate: 83.3%.
Disclaimer: Experimental. This is based on one hero's patch history and has not been proven accurate — Stage 1 and Stage 2 don't yet beat a simple "no change" guess on holdout data. Treat every number on this page as a rough signal, not a confirmed forecast.
Stages 2 and 3: target and direction if Viscous changes
| Mechanic | Selected if changed | Direction | Buff if selected | Nerf if selected | Mixed/rework if selected | Combined priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puddle Punch | 6.7% | Buff | 66.9% | 15.9% | 17.3% | 1.1% |
| Splatter | 5.9% | Buff | 60.3% | 14.5% | 25.2% | 1.0% |
| The Cube | 5.1% | Buff | 48.8% | 11.0% | 40.2% | 0.9% |
| Goo Ball | 4.9% | Buff | 65.2% | 21.4% | 13.4% | 0.8% |
| Spirit | 1.4% | Mixed Or Rework | 37.6% | 9.0% | 53.3% | 0.2% |
| Vitality | 1.1% | Mixed Or Rework | 37.6% | 9.0% | 53.3% | 0.2% |
| Weapon | 1.0% | Mixed Or Rework | 37.6% | 9.0% | 53.3% | 0.2% |
Combined priority multiplies Stage 1 by Stage 2 to help sort the watchlist. It is not a calibrated probability that the named mechanic will change.
Validation and Data Readiness
Every stage uses older patches for training and newer patches for testing. The current patch calendar contains 138 update dates through 2026-06-12.
| Stage | Test rows | Balanced accuracy | Macro F1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stage 1 - hero changedWhether Viscous receives any balance change. | 28 | 50.0% | 0.462 |
| Stage 2 - mechanic selectedWhich mechanic family is selected if Viscous changes. | 196 | 50.0% | 0.488 |
| Stage 3 - conditional directionBuff, nerf, or mixed/rework after a mechanic is selected. | 2 | 0.0% | 0.000 |
Performance feature gate: withheld. Historical pre-patch win-rate coverage is 0.0%; the required coverage is 80.0%. Performance features are withheld because missingness is too sparse or too strongly associated with whether Viscous changed.
The weekly collector now stores all hero performance, base stats, and ability properties without overwriting prior snapshots. Once enough unchanged and changed patches have comparable coverage, performance and ability-strength features can enter training without leaking the answer.
Viscous Patch Changes
52 Viscous patch-change rows are included from the recent patch window.
| Patch | Predictor | Direction | Before | After | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-12 | goo_ball_t2ability:goo_ball | Buff | Goo Ball T2 now also increases Bullet and Spirit Resist by +10% | ||
| 2026-06-12 | puddle_punch_t2ability:puddle_punch | Buff | +40% Lifesteal | +60% | Puddle Punch T2 increased from +40% Lifesteal to +60% |
| 2026-05-22 | puddle_punch_t1ability:puddle_punch | Buff | Puddle Punch T1 now also increases damage by +20 | ||
| 2026-05-22 | puddle_punch_t2ability:puddle_punch | Nerf | Puddle Punch T2 no longer increases damage by +30 | ||
| 2026-05-22 | puddle_punch_t2ability:puddle_punch | Buff | Puddle Punch T2 now also grants +40% Lifesteal (1/4th against non-heroes) | ||
| 2026-04-30 | goo_ball_lockout_period_from_being_affected_againability:goo_ball | Nerf | being affected again reduced from 1.35 | 1 | Goo Ball lockout period from being affected again reduced from 1.35 to 1.2 (a previous bug with increased debuff resistance for subsequent CC not working correctly on this ability was fixed recently) |
| 2026-04-30 | fixed_various_locations_where_splatter_didn_t_bounce_properlyability:splatter | Rework | Fixed various locations where Splatter didn't bounce properly | ||
| 2026-03-06 | goo_ballability:goo_ball | Nerf | Goo Ball no longer can carry Urn | ||
| 2026-03-06 | goo_ball_bullet_and_spirit_resistability:goo_ball | Nerf | 60% | 35% | Goo Ball Bullet and Spirit resist reduced from 60% to 35% |
| 2026-03-06 | goo_ball_canability:goo_ball | Rework | Goo Ball can now use abilities and items (rather than being locked behind T3) | ||
| 2026-03-06 | goo_ball_cooldownability:goo_ball | Buff | 115s | 130s | Goo Ball cooldown increased from 115s to 130s |
| 2026-03-06 | goo_ball_durationability:goo_ball | Buff | 10s | 11s | Goo Ball duration increased from 10s to 11s |
| 2026-03-06 | goo_ball_durationability:goo_ball | Buff | 9s | 10s | Goo Ball duration increased from 9s to 10s |
| 2026-03-06 | goo_ball_lockout_period_from_being_affected_againability:goo_ball | Buff | being affected again increased from 1.25s | 1 | Goo Ball lockout period from being affected again increased from 1.25s to 1.35s |
| 2026-03-06 | goo_ball_stun_durationability:goo_ball | Nerf | 0.7s | 0 | Goo Ball stun duration reduced from 0.7s to 0.5s |
| 2026-03-06 | goo_ball_t1ability:goo_ball | Rework | "+5s Duration" | "-30s Cooldown" | Goo Ball T1 changed from "+5s Duration" to "-30s Cooldown" |
| 2026-03-06 | goo_ball_t2ability:goo_ball | Nerf | +72 Damage | +70 | Goo Ball T2 reduced from +72 Damage to +70 |
| 2026-03-06 | goo_ball_t3ability:goo_ball | Rework | "Can now use abilities and items" | "+6s duration and +0 | Goo Ball T3 changed from "Can now use abilities and items" to "+6s duration and +0.3s Stun Duration" |
| 2026-03-06 | goo_ball_turn_rate_improved_a_bitability:goo_ball | Buff | Goo Ball turn rate improved a bit | ||
| 2026-03-06 | fixed_puddle_punch_t3_giving_an_extra_60_melee_damage_released_a_couple_days_aability:puddle_punch | Rework | Fixed Puddle Punch T3 giving an extra +60 melee damage (released a couple days ago) | ||
| 2026-03-06 | puddle_punchability:puddle_punch | Buff | Puddle Punch now grants +30% Air Control when affecting yourself or allies | ||
| 2026-03-06 | puddle_punchability:puddle_punch | Rework | Puddle Punch now acts as if its close range with respect to item procs (like Point Blank) | ||
| 2026-03-06 | puddle_punchability:puddle_punch | Rework | Puddle Punch now has +20 bonus damage | ||
| 2026-03-06 | puddle_punch_charge_timeability:puddle_punch | Buff | 1.5s | 1 | Puddle Punch Charge Time increased from 1.5s to 1.7s |
| 2026-03-06 | puddle_punch_displacement_durationability:puddle_punch | Nerf | 0.8s | 0 | Puddle Punch displacement duration reduced from 0.8s to 0.6s |
| 2026-03-06 | puddle_punch_radiusability:puddle_punch | Nerf | 4.5m | 4m | Puddle Punch radius reduced from 4.5m to 4m |
| 2026-03-06 | puddle_punch_scalingability:puddle_punch | Nerf | 1.1 | 1 | Puddle Punch scaling reduced from 1.1 to 1.0 |
| 2026-03-06 | puddle_punch_scalingability:puddle_punch | Nerf | 1 | 0 | Puddle Punch scaling reduced from 1 to 0.8 |
| 2026-03-06 | puddle_punch_scalingability:puddle_punch | Nerf | 0.8 | 0 | Puddle Punch scaling reduced from 0.8 to 0.6 |
| 2026-03-06 | puddle_punch_slowability:puddle_punch | Buff | 15% | 20% | Puddle Punch Slow increased from 15% to 20% |
| 2026-03-06 | puddle_punch_t2ability:puddle_punch | Rework | "+27 Damage and -15% Move Slow" | "+1 | Puddle Punch T2 changed from "+27 Damage and -15% Move Slow" to "+1.5m Radius and +30 Damage" |
| 2026-03-06 | puddle_punch_wind_up_timeability:puddle_punch | Buff | 0.15s | 0 | Puddle Punch wind up time increased from 0.15s to 0.2s |
| 2026-03-06 | splatter_bounces_once_by_defaultability:splatter | Rework | Splatter bounces once by default | ||
| 2026-03-06 | splatter_cooldownability:splatter | Nerf | 30s | 26 | Splatter cooldown reduced from 30s to 26 |
| 2026-03-06 | splatter_ground_effectability:splatter | Rework | Splatter ground effect now increases slide distance by 60% for you and your allies | ||
| 2026-03-06 | splatter_multiple_hit_damage_valueability:splatter | Nerf | 50% | 50/38/26% | Splatter multiple hit damage value reduced from 50% to 50/38/26% |
| 2026-03-06 | splatter_spirit_scalingability:splatter | Nerf | 1.77 | 0 | Splatter spirit scaling reduced from 1.77 to 0.8 |
| 2026-03-06 | splatter_t1_radiusability:splatter | Buff | +1m | +2m | Splatter T1 radius increased from +1m to +2m |
| 2026-03-06 | splatter_t2_cooldownability:splatter | Buff | -12s | -14s | Splatter T2 cooldown increased from -12s to -14s |
| 2026-03-06 | splatter_t3_spirit_scalingability:splatter | Nerf | 1.3 | 1 | Splatter T3 spirit scaling reduced from 1.3 to 1.1 |
| 2026-03-06 | splatter_t3_spirit_scalingability:splatter | Buff | +0.4 | +1 | Splatter T3 spirit scaling increased from +0.4 to +1.3 |
| 2026-03-06 | splatter_t3_still_adds_2_bouncesability:splatter | Rework | Splatter T3 still adds 2 bounces | ||
| 2026-03-06 | the_cubeability:the_cube | Rework | The Cube now has a very brief period where allies cannot cancel to prevent accidental cancels | ||
| 2026-03-06 | the_cube_healing_spirit_scalingability:the_cube | Buff | 0.14 | 0 | The Cube healing spirit scaling increased from 0.14 to 0.3 |
| 2026-03-06 | the_cube_t3ability:the_cube | Buff | -21s Cooldown | -25s | The Cube T3 increased from -21s Cooldown to -25s |
| 2025-11-21 | splatter_cooldownability:splatter | Buff | 21s | 30s | Splatter cooldown increased from 21s to 30s |
| 2025-11-21 | splatter_t1ability:splatter | Rework | "-6s Cooldown" | "+40 Damage and +1m Radius" | Splatter T1 changed from "-6s Cooldown" to "+40 Damage and +1m Radius" |
| 2025-11-21 | splatter_t2ability:splatter | Rework | "+45 Damage and +1m Radius" | "-12s Cooldown" | Splatter T2 changed from "+45 Damage and +1m Radius" to "-12s Cooldown" |
| 2025-11-21 | splatter_t3ability:splatter | Buff | Splatter T3 now also increases spirit scaling by 0.4 | ||
| 2025-11-21 | the_cube_durationability:the_cube | Nerf | 4s | 3s | The Cube duration reduced from 4s to 3s |
| 2025-11-21 | the_cube_regenability:the_cube | Buff | 30 | 40 | The Cube regen increased from 30 to 40 |
| 2025-11-21 | the_cube_t2ability:the_cube | Buff | The Cube T2 now also increases duration by +1s |
Hero Balance Predictions
Viscous buff/nerf prototype
Forecasts whether Viscous is likely to change next patch, using recent patch history and the Viscous predictor DuckDB.