Deadlock Hero Balance Predictions
Vindicta buff/nerf predictor prototype
Generated from the Vindicta predictor DuckDB, recent patch history, and a three-stage prediction model.
Prediction Model
Vindicta Buff/Nerf Watch
This page is the hero-side version of the item prediction screen. The target is whether a hero looks more likely to be buffed, nerfed, or left alone in a future patch. This first page is Vindicta-only so the predictors can be reviewed before expanding to every hero.
Best read: this is now a three-stage experiment. It first asks whether Vindicta is likely to change, then which broad mechanic would be selected, then the direction of that selected mechanic. Later stages are conditional and must not be read as standalone certainty.
- Stage 1
- Will Vindicta receive any balance change in the next patch?
- Stage 2
- If Vindicta changes, which mechanic family is most likely to be selected?
- Stage 3
- If that family is selected, does its patch direction look like buff, nerf, or mixed/rework?
- Future learning
- Weekly snapshots preserve hero stats and ability values over time. They are enabled as model features only after changed and unchanged patches both have adequate coverage.
Three-Stage Next-Patch Forecast
1
Will Vindicta change?
42.1%
Estimated chance of any Vindicta balance change. No-change estimate: 57.9%.
Disclaimer: Experimental. This is based on one hero's patch history and has not been proven accurate — Stage 1 and Stage 2 don't yet beat a simple "no change" guess on holdout data. Treat every number on this page as a rough signal, not a confirmed forecast.
Stages 2 and 3: target and direction if Vindicta changes
| Mechanic | Selected if changed | Direction | Buff if selected | Nerf if selected | Mixed/rework if selected | Combined priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Assassinate | 23.6% | Mixed Or Rework | 34.8% | 0.0% | 65.2% | 9.9% |
| Crow Familiar | 18.4% | Mixed Or Rework | 28.7% | 0.0% | 71.3% | 7.7% |
| Flight | 18.0% | Mixed Or Rework | 28.7% | 0.0% | 71.3% | 7.6% |
| Stake | 15.7% | Mixed Or Rework | 28.7% | 0.0% | 71.3% | 6.6% |
| Vitality | 15.3% | Mixed Or Rework | 28.7% | 0.0% | 71.3% | 6.4% |
| Weapon | 14.1% | Mixed Or Rework | 28.7% | 0.0% | 71.3% | 5.9% |
| Spirit | 9.6% | Mixed Or Rework | 28.7% | 0.0% | 71.3% | 4.0% |
Combined priority multiplies Stage 1 by Stage 2 to help sort the watchlist. It is not a calibrated probability that the named mechanic will change.
Validation and Data Readiness
Every stage uses older patches for training and newer patches for testing. The current patch calendar contains 138 update dates through 2026-06-12.
| Stage | Test rows | Balanced accuracy | Macro F1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stage 1 - hero changedWhether Vindicta receives any balance change. | 28 | 50.0% | 0.481 |
| Stage 2 - mechanic selectedWhich mechanic family is selected if Vindicta changes. | 196 | 50.0% | 0.491 |
| Stage 3 - conditional directionBuff, nerf, or mixed/rework after a mechanic is selected. | 1 | 0.0% | 0.000 |
Performance feature gate: withheld. Historical pre-patch win-rate coverage is 0.0%; the required coverage is 80.0%. Performance features are withheld because missingness is too sparse or too strongly associated with whether Vindicta changed.
The weekly collector now stores all hero performance, base stats, and ability properties without overwriting prior snapshots. Once enough unchanged and changed patches have comparable coverage, performance and ability-strength features can enter training without leaking the answer.
Vindicta Patch Changes
34 Vindicta patch-change rows are included from the recent patch window.
| Patch | Predictor | Direction | Before | After | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-12 | assassinate_max_bonus_damage_spirit_scalingability:assassinate | Buff | 1.7 | 2 | Assassinate Max Bonus Damage spirit scaling increased from 1.7 to 2.0 |
| 2026-03-06 | assassinateability:assassinate | Rework | Assassinate now has a 4s buffer on impact for bonus credit | ||
| 2026-03-06 | assassinate_weapon_damage_bonusability:assassinate | Buff | 5% | 6% | Assassinate weapon damage bonus increased from 5% to 6% |
| 2026-03-06 | assassinate_while_scopedability:assassinate | Rework | Assassinate while scoped now plays a sound for you when the it is fully charged | ||
| 2026-03-06 | assassinate_while_scopedability:assassinate | Nerf | Assassinate while scoped no longer un-scopes when using items | ||
| 2026-03-06 | crow_familiarability:crow_familiar | Rework | Crow Familiar now releases a swarm of crows in a cone forward, hitting all enemies along the path | ||
| 2026-03-06 | crow_familiar_bleed_damageability:crow_familiar | Nerf | 2.7% | 2 | Crow Familiar bleed damage reduced from 2.7% to 2.2% |
| 2026-03-06 | crow_familiar_cooldownability:crow_familiar | Buff | 28s | 32s | Crow Familiar cooldown increased from 28s to 32s |
| 2026-03-06 | crow_familiar_damageability:crow_familiar | Buff | 37 | 40 | Crow Familiar damage increased from 37 to 40 |
| 2026-03-06 | crow_familiar_debuff_durationability:crow_familiar | Buff | 4s | 5s | Crow Familiar debuff duration increased from 4s to 5s |
| 2026-03-06 | crow_familiar_debuff_durationability:crow_familiar | Nerf | Crow Familiar debuff duration no longer scales with spirit power | ||
| 2026-03-06 | crow_familiar_t1ability:crow_familiar | Rework | "Ricochet up | 2 times" to "Reduces healing by -35%" | Crow Familiar T1 changed from "Ricochet up to 2 times" to "Reduces healing by -35%" |
| 2026-03-06 | crow_familiar_t2ability:crow_familiar | Buff | Crow Familiar T2 now also increase bleed damage by +0.5% | ||
| 2026-03-06 | crow_familiar_t3ability:crow_familiar | Buff | Crow Familiar T3 now also increases debuff duration by 2s | ||
| 2026-03-06 | flightability:flight | Rework | Flight now allows parry to be used | ||
| 2026-03-06 | flightability:flight | Rework | Flight now allows you to use melee | ||
| 2026-03-06 | flightability:flight | Buff | Flight now grants you +50% Item Cast Range | ||
| 2026-03-06 | flight_durationability:flight | Nerf | 15s | 13s | Flight duration reduced from 15s to 13s |
| 2026-03-06 | flight_spirit_damage_scalingability:flight | Nerf | 0.22 | 0 | Flight spirit damage scaling reduced from 0.22 to 0.18 |
| 2026-03-06 | flight_t2_durationability:flight | Buff | +8s | +10s | Flight T2 duration increased from +8s to +10s |
| 2026-03-06 | flight_t3ability:flight | Rework | Flight T3 now increases spirit scaling by 0.1 | ||
| 2026-03-06 | flight_t3ability:flight | Buff | Flight T3 now also refreshes duration on hero kill | ||
| 2026-03-06 | flight_t3_spirit_damage_per_bulletability:flight | Nerf | 12.6 | 10 | Flight T3 Spirit Damage Per Bullet reduced from 12.6 to 10 |
| 2026-03-06 | stake_damageability:stake | Nerf | 55 | 40 | Stake damage reduced from 55 to 40 |
| 2026-03-06 | stake_damage_spirit_scalingability:stake | Buff | 0.37 | 0 | Stake damage spirit scaling increased from 0.37 to 0.5 |
| 2026-03-06 | stake_projectile_speedability:stake | Buff | 20m/s | 25m/s | Stake projectile speed increased from 20m/s to 25m/s |
| 2026-03-06 | stake_t1ability:stake | Rework | "-35% Fire Rate" | "+65 Damage" | Stake T1 changed from "-35% Fire Rate" to "+65 Damage" |
| 2026-03-06 | stake_t3_capture_radiusability:stake | Buff | +1m | +2m | Stake T3 capture radius increased from +1m to +2m |
| 2026-03-06 | stake_t3_tether_durationability:stake | Buff | +0.5s | +0 | Stake T3 Tether Duration increased from +0.5s to +0.75s |
| 2026-03-06 | fixed_not_gaining_bonus_damage_if_a_proc_bonus_was_the_killing_blowvitality | Rework | Fixed not gaining bonus damage if a proc bonus was the killing blow | ||
| 2026-03-06 | ammoweapon | Nerf | 22 | 19 | Ammo reduced from 22 to 19 |
| 2026-03-06 | bullet_damageweapon | Rework | Bullet damage now scales with spirit power (0.022) | ||
| 2026-03-06 | bullet_velocityweapon | Buff | 557 | 660 | Bullet Velocity increased from 557 to 660 |
| 2026-03-06 | fire_rateweapon | Nerf | Fire Rate no longer scales with Spirit Power |
Hero Balance Predictions
Vindicta buff/nerf prototype
Forecasts whether Vindicta is likely to change next patch, using recent patch history and the Vindicta predictor DuckDB.