Deadlock Hero Balance Predictions
Victor buff/nerf predictor prototype
Generated from the Victor predictor DuckDB, recent patch history, and a three-stage prediction model.
Prediction Model

Victor Buff/Nerf Watch

This page is the hero-side version of the item prediction screen. The target is whether a hero looks more likely to be buffed, nerfed, or left alone in a future patch. This first page is Victor-only so the predictors can be reviewed before expanding to every hero.

Best read: this is now a three-stage experiment. It first asks whether Victor is likely to change, then which broad mechanic would be selected, then the direction of that selected mechanic. Later stages are conditional and must not be read as standalone certainty.
Stage 1
Will Victor receive any balance change in the next patch?
Stage 2
If Victor changes, which mechanic family is most likely to be selected?
Stage 3
If that family is selected, does its patch direction look like buff, nerf, or mixed/rework?
Future learning
Weekly snapshots preserve hero stats and ability values over time. They are enabled as model features only after changed and unchanged patches both have adequate coverage.
Three-Stage Next-Patch Forecast
1

Will Victor change?

38.6%

Estimated chance of any Victor balance change. No-change estimate: 61.4%.

Disclaimer: Experimental. This is based on one hero's patch history and has not been proven accurate — Stage 1 and Stage 2 don't yet beat a simple "no change" guess on holdout data. Treat every number on this page as a rough signal, not a confirmed forecast.

Stages 2 and 3: target and direction if Victor changes

Mechanic Selected if changed Direction Buff if selected Nerf if selected Mixed/rework if selected Combined priority
Shocking Reanimation 24.9% Nerf 10.0% 54.9% 35.1% 9.6%
Aura Of Suffering 13.2% Mixed Or Rework 26.3% 33.4% 40.3% 5.1%
Jumpstart 4.7% Nerf 19.5% 51.7% 28.7% 1.8%
Spirit 3.8% Mixed Or Rework 19.8% 32.1% 48.1% 1.5%
Weapon 2.5% Nerf 20.9% 44.4% 34.7% 1.0%
Pain Battery 1.4% Nerf 36.1% 37.4% 26.4% 0.6%
Vitality 0.9% Nerf 35.4% 38.0% 26.6% 0.3%

Combined priority multiplies Stage 1 by Stage 2 to help sort the watchlist. It is not a calibrated probability that the named mechanic will change.

Validation and Data Readiness

Every stage uses older patches for training and newer patches for testing. The current patch calendar contains 147 update dates through 2026-08-02.

Stage Test rows Balanced accuracy Macro F1
Stage 1 - hero changedWhether Victor receives any balance change. 30 50.0% 0.444
Stage 2 - mechanic selectedWhich mechanic family is selected if Victor changes. 210 50.0% 0.481
Stage 3 - conditional directionBuff, nerf, or mixed/rework after a mechanic is selected. 3 0.0% 0.000
Performance feature gate: withheld. Historical pre-patch win-rate coverage is 6.1%; the required coverage is 80.0%. Performance features are withheld because missingness is too sparse or too strongly associated with whether Victor changed.

The weekly collector now stores all hero performance, base stats, and ability properties without overwriting prior snapshots. Once enough unchanged and changed patches have comparable coverage, performance and ability-strength features can enter training without leaking the answer.

Victor Patch Changes

57 Victor patch-change rows are included from the recent patch window.

Patch Predictor Direction Before After Notes
2026-07-09 shocking_reanimation_cooldownability:shocking_reanimation Nerf 275s 240s Shocking Reanimation cooldown reduced from 275s to 240s
2026-06-12 aura_of_suffering_radiusability:aura_of_suffering Nerf 9m 8m Aura of Suffering radius reduced from 9m to 8m
2026-06-12 aura_of_suffering_t3ability:aura_of_suffering Buff Aura of Suffering T3 now also increases radius by +1m
2026-06-12 fixed_some_client_performance_issues_when_using_aura_of_sufferingability:aura_of_suffering Rework Fixed some client performance issues when using Aura of Suffering
2026-06-12 shocking_reanimation_cooldownability:shocking_reanimation Buff 230s 240s Shocking Reanimation cooldown increased from 230s to 240s
2026-06-12 shocking_reanimation_t3ability:shocking_reanimation Nerf -120s Cooldown -110s Shocking Reanimation T3 reduced from -120s Cooldown to -110s
2026-06-12 shocking_reanimation_t3ability:shocking_reanimation Buff +150 Damage +175 Shocking Reanimation T3 increased from +150 Damage to +175
2026-05-31 shocking_reanimation_t3ability:shocking_reanimation Nerf -130s Cooldown -120s Shocking Reanimation T3 reduced from -130s Cooldown to -120s
2026-05-22 aura_of_sufferingability:aura_of_suffering Rework Aura of Suffering now does 50% damage to objectives
2026-05-22 jumpstart_t3_spirit_scalingability:jumpstart Buff +0.6 +0 Jumpstart T3 spirit scaling increased from +0.6 to +0.9
2026-05-22 bullet_damageweapon Nerf 13+0.3135 12+0 Bullet damage reduced from 13+0.3135 to 12+0.26
2026-04-30 aura_of_suffering_t2ability:aura_of_suffering Buff +28 Max DPS +34 Aura of Suffering T2 increased from +28 Max DPS to +34
2026-04-30 shocking_reanimation_t3ability:shocking_reanimation Buff -100s Cooldown -130s Shocking Reanimation T3 increased from -100s Cooldown to -130s
2026-03-06 aura_of_suffering_base_and_t2_max_dps_and_scalingability:aura_of_suffering Nerf Aura of Suffering Base and T2 Max DPS and scaling reduced by 10%
2026-03-06 aura_of_suffering_canability:aura_of_suffering Rework Aura of Suffering can now be activated on the zipline
2026-03-06 aura_of_suffering_max_dpsability:aura_of_suffering Nerf 70 54 Aura of Suffering Max DPS reduced from 70 to 54
2026-03-06 aura_of_suffering_max_dps_spirit_scalingability:aura_of_suffering Nerf 0.9 0 Aura of Suffering Max DPS spirit scaling reduced from 0.9 to 0.67
2026-03-06 aura_of_suffering_min_dpsability:aura_of_suffering Nerf 16 12 Aura of Suffering Min DPS reduced from 16 to 12
2026-03-06 aura_of_suffering_min_dps_spirit_scalingability:aura_of_suffering Nerf 0.18 0 Aura of Suffering Min DPS spirit scaling reduced from 0.18 to 0.135
2026-03-06 aura_of_suffering_radiusability:aura_of_suffering Nerf 10m 9 Aura of Suffering radius reduced from 10m to 9.5m
2026-03-06 aura_of_suffering_radiusability:aura_of_suffering Buff 7.7m 10m Aura of Suffering radius increased from 7.7m to 10m
2026-03-06 aura_of_suffering_t2_min_max_dpsability:aura_of_suffering Nerf 8/36 6/26 Aura of Suffering T2 Min/Max DPS reduced from 8/36 to 6/26
2026-03-06 aura_of_suffering_t3ability:aura_of_suffering Nerf +13% Damage +15% Aura of Suffering T3 reduced from +13% Damage to +15%
2026-03-06 aura_of_suffering_text_progress_bar_indicates_time_to_max_dpsability:aura_of_suffering Rework Aura of Suffering Text Progress bar indicates time to Max DPS
2026-03-06 aura_of_suffering_time_to_max_dpsability:aura_of_suffering Nerf 10s 6s Aura of Suffering time to max DPS reduced from 10s to 6s
2026-03-06 aura_of_suffering_toggle_cooldownability:aura_of_suffering Nerf 2.5s 2s Aura of Suffering toggle cooldown reduced from 2.5s to 2s
2026-03-06 jumpstart_cooldownability:jumpstart Buff 23s 30s Jumpstart cooldown increased from 23s to 30s
2026-03-06 jumpstart_move_speedability:jumpstart Nerf 4m 3m Jumpstart Move Speed reduced from 4m to 3m
2026-03-06 jumpstart_spirit_scalingability:jumpstart Nerf 1.8 1 Jumpstart spirit scaling reduced from 1.8 to 1.2
2026-03-06 jumpstart_t1ability:jumpstart Buff +1.5m +3m Move Speed Jumpstart T1 increased from +1.5m to +3m Move Speed
2026-03-06 jumpstart_t2ability:jumpstart Buff Jumpstart T2 now also reduces cooldown by -8s
2026-03-06 jumpstart_t3ability:jumpstart Buff Jumpstart T3 now also provides +1 Charge
2026-03-06 jumpstart_t3ability:jumpstart Nerf Jumpstart T3 no longer reduces cooldown
2026-03-06 jumpstart_t3ability:jumpstart Buff Jumpstart T3 now also increases spirit scaling by 0.8
2026-03-06 jumpstart_t3_spirit_scalingability:jumpstart Nerf 0.8 0 Jumpstart T3 spirit scaling reduced from 0.8 to 0.6
2026-03-06 pain_batteryability:pain_battery Rework Pain Battery now starts charged
2026-03-06 pain_batteryability:pain_battery Nerf Pain Battery reduced randomness on the projectile paths
2026-03-06 pain_battery_bolt_count_from_5_to_7ability:pain_battery Rework 5 7 Pain Battery bolt count from 5 to 7
2026-03-06 pain_battery_rangeability:pain_battery Buff 20m 28m Pain Battery range increased from 20m to 28m
2026-03-06 pain_battery_t2ability:pain_battery Buff +36 +50 Pain Battery T2 increased from +36 to +50
2026-03-06 pain_battery_t3ability:pain_battery Buff Pain Battery T3 now also increases spirit scaling by +0.6
2026-03-06 pain_battery_t3ability:pain_battery Nerf 18% Missing Health 15% Pain Battery T3 reduced from 18% Missing Health to 15%
2026-03-06 shocking_reanimation_cooldownability:shocking_reanimation Buff 190s 210s Shocking Reanimation cooldown increased from 190s to 210s
2026-03-06 shocking_reanimation_cooldownability:shocking_reanimation Buff 210s 230s Shocking Reanimation cooldown increased from 210s to 230s
2026-03-06 shocking_reanimation_radiusability:shocking_reanimation Nerf 13m 12m Shocking Reanimation radius reduced from 13m to 12m
2026-03-06 shocking_reanimation_radiusability:shocking_reanimation Buff 12m 18m Shocking Reanimation radius increased from 12m to 18m
2026-03-06 shocking_reanimation_rebirth_healthability:shocking_reanimation Nerf 60% 50% Shocking Reanimation rebirth health reduced from 60% to 50%
2026-03-06 shocking_reanimation_t1ability:shocking_reanimation Rework "+3m Radius and +90 Damage" "While on Cooldown: +15% Fire Rate and +6 Spirit Damage Per Bullet (0 Shocking Reanimation T1 changed from "+3m Radius and +90 Damage" to "While on Cooldown: +15% Fire Rate and +6 Spirit Damage Per Bullet (0.06 scaling)"
2026-03-06 shocking_reanimation_t2_rebirth_healthability:shocking_reanimation Buff 40% 50% Shocking Reanimation T2 rebirth health increased from 40% to 50%
2026-03-06 shocking_reanimation_t3ability:shocking_reanimation Rework "While on Cooldown: +18% Fire Rate and +9 Spirit Damage Per Bullet (0.06 scaling)" "+6m Radius, +1s Stun and -50s Cooldown" Shocking Reanimation T3 changed from "While on Cooldown: +18% Fire Rate and +9 Spirit Damage Per Bullet (0.06 scaling)" to "+6m Radius, +1s Stun and -50s Cooldown"
2026-03-06 shocking_reanimation_t3ability:shocking_reanimation Buff Shocking Reanimation T3 now also deals +150 Damage
2026-03-06 shocking_reanimation_t3ability:shocking_reanimation Buff -50s Cooldown -70s Shocking Reanimation T3 increased from -50s Cooldown to -70s
2026-03-06 shocking_reanimation_t3ability:shocking_reanimation Nerf Shocking Reanimation T3 no longer increases radius by 6m
2026-03-06 shocking_reanimation_t3_cooldown_from_70s_to_100sability:shocking_reanimation Rework -70s -100s Shocking Reanimation T3 cooldown from -70s to -100s
2026-03-06 health_per_boonvitality Buff 46 50 Health per boon increased from 46 to 50
2026-03-06 now_has_30_less_effectiveness_from_lifesteal_lifesteal_effectiveness_stat_addevitality Rework lifesteal (Lifesteal Effectiveness stat added Vitality tooltip) Now has 30% less effectiveness from lifesteal (Lifesteal Effectiveness stat added to Vitality tooltip)
2026-03-06 bullet_damageweapon Buff 12.3 12 Bullet damage increased from 12.3 to 12.5
Deadlock
Hero Balance Predictions
Victor buff/nerf prototype
Forecasts whether Victor is likely to change next patch, using recent patch history and the Victor predictor DuckDB.