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Prediction Model

Venator Buff/Nerf Watch

This page is the hero-side version of the item prediction screen. The target is whether a hero looks more likely to be buffed, nerfed, or left alone in a future patch. This first page is Venator-only so the predictors can be reviewed before expanding to every hero.

Best read: this is now a three-stage experiment. It first asks whether Venator is likely to change, then which broad mechanic would be selected, then the direction of that selected mechanic. Later stages are conditional and must not be read as standalone certainty.

Stage 1: Will Venator receive any balance change in the next patch?
Stage 2: If Venator changes, which mechanic family is most likely to be selected?
Stage 3: If that family is selected, does its patch direction look like buff, nerf, or mixed/rework?
Future learning: Weekly snapshots preserve hero stats and ability values over time. They are enabled as model features only after changed and unchanged patches both have adequate coverage.

Three-Stage Next-Patch Forecast

1

Will Venator change?

25.2%

Estimated chance of any Venator balance change. No-change estimate: 74.8%.

Disclaimer: Experimental. This is based on one hero's patch history and has not been proven accurate — Stage 1 and Stage 2 don't yet beat a simple "no change" guess on holdout data. Treat every number on this page as a rough signal, not a confirmed forecast.

Stages 2 and 3: target and direction if Venator changes

Mechanic	Selected if changed	Direction	Buff if selected	Nerf if selected	Mixed/rework if selected	Combined priority
Ira Domini	17.9%	Mixed Or Rework	21.3%	31.2%	47.5%	4.5%
Vitality	9.6%	Nerf	26.7%	37.8%	35.5%	2.4%
Hex Lined Snap Trap	8.5%	Nerf	25.2%	37.7%	37.1%	2.1%
Weapon	8.2%	Nerf	26.2%	37.6%	36.3%	2.1%
Spirit	3.7%	Nerf	31.0%	34.9%	34.1%	0.9%
Gutshot	3.7%	Nerf	26.2%	37.6%	36.3%	0.9%
Consecrating Grenade	2.9%	Nerf	31.0%	34.9%	34.1%	0.7%

Combined priority multiplies Stage 1 by Stage 2 to help sort the watchlist. It is not a calibrated probability that the named mechanic will change.

Validation and Data Readiness

Every stage uses older patches for training and newer patches for testing. The current patch calendar contains 151 update dates through 2026-09-16.

Stage	Test rows	Balanced accuracy	Macro F1
Stage 1 - hero changedWhether Venator receives any balance change.	31	50.0%	0.466
Stage 2 - mechanic selectedWhich mechanic family is selected if Venator changes.	217	50.0%	0.492
Stage 3 - conditional directionBuff, nerf, or mixed/rework after a mechanic is selected.	1	0.0%	0.000

Performance feature gate: withheld. Historical pre-patch win-rate coverage is 8.6%; the required coverage is 80.0%. Performance features are withheld because missingness is too sparse or too strongly associated with whether Venator changed.

The weekly collector now stores all hero performance, base stats, and ability properties without overwriting prior snapshots. Once enough unchanged and changed patches have comparable coverage, performance and ability-strength features can enter training without leaking the answer.

Venator Patch Changes

11 Venator patch-change rows are included from the recent patch window.

Patch	Predictor	Direction	Before	After	Notes
2026-09-16	ira_dominiability:ira_domini	Rework			Ira Domini now works with Ricochet, all the shots will bounce
2026-09-16	ira_domini_canability:ira_domini	Rework			Ira Domini can now split shot (releases 1 extra bolt on each side, 3 total)
2026-07-28	ira_domini_blessed_stakes_damageability:ira_domini	Buff	100	115	Ira Domini blessed stakes damage increased from 100 to 115
2026-07-28	ira_domini_cooldownability:ira_domini	Nerf			Ira Domini cooldown no longer starts after the conclusion of the ability, now starts immediately
2026-07-28	sprint_speedvitality	Nerf	1.5m	1m	Sprint speed reduced from 1.5m to 1m
2026-07-28	bullet_falloff_rangeweapon	Nerf	20m-51m	18m-47m	Bullet falloff range reduced from 20m-51m to 18m-47m
2026-05-22	hex_lined_snap_trap_t3ability:hex_lined_snap_trap	Buff	+25% Damage Against Revealed Targets	+30%	Hex-Lined Snap Trap T3 increased from +25% Damage Against Revealed Targets to +30%
2026-05-22	hex_lined_snap_trap_t3ability:hex_lined_snap_trap	Buff			Hex-Lined Snap Trap T3 now also grants +1 Charge
2026-05-22	healthvitality	Buff	790+43/boon	830+48/boon	Health increased from 790+43/boon to 830+48/boon
2026-04-30	gutshot_damage_scalingability:gutshot	Nerf	0.8	0	Gutshot damage scaling reduced from 0.8 to 0.7
2026-04-30	gutshot_wall_hit_damage_scalingability:gutshot	Nerf	0.9	0	Gutshot wall hit damage scaling reduced from 0.9 to 0.8