Venator Buff/Nerf Watch
This page is the hero-side version of the item prediction screen. The target is whether a hero looks more likely to be buffed, nerfed, or left alone in a future patch. This first page is Venator-only so the predictors can be reviewed before expanding to every hero.
- Stage 1
- Will Venator receive any balance change in the next patch?
- Stage 2
- If Venator changes, which mechanic family is most likely to be selected?
- Stage 3
- If that family is selected, does its patch direction look like buff, nerf, or mixed/rework?
- Future learning
- Weekly snapshots preserve hero stats and ability values over time. They are enabled as model features only after changed and unchanged patches both have adequate coverage.
Will Venator change?
Estimated chance of any Venator balance change. No-change estimate: 59.6%.
Stages 2 and 3: target and direction if Venator changes
| Mechanic | Selected if changed | Direction | Buff if selected | Nerf if selected | Mixed/rework if selected | Combined priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hex Lined Snap Trap | 20.0% | Nerf | 31.7% | 43.3% | 24.9% | 8.1% |
| Spirit | 18.1% | Nerf | 30.1% | 39.4% | 30.5% | 7.3% |
| Consecrating Grenade | 17.2% | Nerf | 30.1% | 39.4% | 30.5% | 6.9% |
| Ira Domini | 8.0% | Nerf | 31.7% | 43.3% | 24.9% | 3.2% |
| Vitality | 7.7% | Nerf | 33.1% | 43.3% | 23.6% | 3.1% |
| Gutshot | 5.2% | Nerf | 31.7% | 43.3% | 24.9% | 2.1% |
| Weapon | 3.1% | Nerf | 31.7% | 43.3% | 24.9% | 1.3% |
Combined priority multiplies Stage 1 by Stage 2 to help sort the watchlist. It is not a calibrated probability that the named mechanic will change.
Every stage uses older patches for training and newer patches for testing. The current patch calendar contains 147 update dates through 2026-08-02.
| Stage | Test rows | Balanced accuracy | Macro F1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stage 1 - hero changedWhether Venator receives any balance change. | 30 | 50.0% | 0.474 |
| Stage 2 - mechanic selectedWhich mechanic family is selected if Venator changes. | 210 | 50.0% | 0.493 |
| Stage 3 - conditional directionBuff, nerf, or mixed/rework after a mechanic is selected. | 3 | 0.0% | 0.000 |
The weekly collector now stores all hero performance, base stats, and ability properties without overwriting prior snapshots. Once enough unchanged and changed patches have comparable coverage, performance and ability-strength features can enter training without leaking the answer.
9 Venator patch-change rows are included from the recent patch window.
| Patch | Predictor | Direction | Before | After | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | ira_domini_blessed_stakes_damageability:ira_domini | Buff | 100 | 115 | Ira Domini blessed stakes damage increased from 100 to 115 |
| 2026-07-28 | ira_domini_cooldownability:ira_domini | Nerf | Ira Domini cooldown no longer starts after the conclusion of the ability, now starts immediately | ||
| 2026-07-28 | sprint_speedvitality | Nerf | 1.5m | 1m | Sprint speed reduced from 1.5m to 1m |
| 2026-07-28 | bullet_falloff_rangeweapon | Nerf | 20m-51m | 18m-47m | Bullet falloff range reduced from 20m-51m to 18m-47m |
| 2026-05-22 | hex_lined_snap_trap_t3ability:hex_lined_snap_trap | Buff | +25% Damage Against Revealed Targets | +30% | Hex-Lined Snap Trap T3 increased from +25% Damage Against Revealed Targets to +30% |
| 2026-05-22 | hex_lined_snap_trap_t3ability:hex_lined_snap_trap | Buff | Hex-Lined Snap Trap T3 now also grants +1 Charge | ||
| 2026-05-22 | healthvitality | Buff | 790+43/boon | 830+48/boon | Health increased from 790+43/boon to 830+48/boon |
| 2026-04-30 | gutshot_damage_scalingability:gutshot | Nerf | 0.8 | 0 | Gutshot damage scaling reduced from 0.8 to 0.7 |
| 2026-04-30 | gutshot_wall_hit_damage_scalingability:gutshot | Nerf | 0.9 | 0 | Gutshot wall hit damage scaling reduced from 0.9 to 0.8 |
