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Prediction Model

The Doorman Buff/Nerf Watch

This page is the hero-side version of the item prediction screen. The target is whether a hero looks more likely to be buffed, nerfed, or left alone in a future patch. This first page is The Doorman-only so the predictors can be reviewed before expanding to every hero.

Best read: this is now a three-stage experiment. It first asks whether The Doorman is likely to change, then which broad mechanic would be selected, then the direction of that selected mechanic. Later stages are conditional and must not be read as standalone certainty.

Stage 1: Will The Doorman receive any balance change in the next patch?
Stage 2: If The Doorman changes, which mechanic family is most likely to be selected?
Stage 3: If that family is selected, does its patch direction look like buff, nerf, or mixed/rework?
Future learning: Weekly snapshots preserve hero stats and ability values over time. They are enabled as model features only after changed and unchanged patches both have adequate coverage.

Three-Stage Next-Patch Forecast

Will The Doorman change?

58.0%

Estimated chance of any The Doorman balance change. No-change estimate: 42.0%.

Disclaimer: Experimental. This is based on one hero's patch history and has not been proven accurate — Stage 1 and Stage 2 don't yet beat a simple "no change" guess on holdout data. Treat every number on this page as a rough signal, not a confirmed forecast.

Stages 2 and 3: target and direction if The Doorman changes

Mechanic	Selected if changed	Direction	Buff if selected	Nerf if selected	Mixed/rework if selected	Combined priority
Weapon	37.5%	Mixed Or Rework	18.9%	20.7%	60.4%	21.8%
Luggage Cart	31.5%	Mixed Or Rework	30.9%	18.9%	50.2%	18.2%
Doorway	30.7%	Buff	55.7%	14.6%	29.7%	17.8%
Call Bell	21.7%	Buff	55.1%	23.2%	21.8%	12.6%
Vitality	21.2%	Mixed Or Rework	23.5%	28.3%	48.2%	12.3%
Hotel Guest	19.3%	Buff	58.0%	13.6%	28.4%	11.2%
Spirit	4.7%	Mixed Or Rework	14.9%	16.8%	68.3%	2.7%

Combined priority multiplies Stage 1 by Stage 2 to help sort the watchlist. It is not a calibrated probability that the named mechanic will change.

Validation and Data Readiness

Every stage uses older patches for training and newer patches for testing. The current patch calendar contains 147 update dates through 2026-08-02.

Stage	Test rows	Balanced accuracy	Macro F1
Stage 1 - hero changedWhether The Doorman receives any balance change.	30	50.0%	0.434
Stage 2 - mechanic selectedWhich mechanic family is selected if The Doorman changes.	210	50.0%	0.478
Stage 3 - conditional directionBuff, nerf, or mixed/rework after a mechanic is selected.	7	25.0%	0.222

Performance feature gate: withheld. Historical pre-patch win-rate coverage is 6.1%; the required coverage is 80.0%. Performance features are withheld because missingness is too sparse or too strongly associated with whether The Doorman changed.

The weekly collector now stores all hero performance, base stats, and ability properties without overwriting prior snapshots. Once enough unchanged and changed patches have comparable coverage, performance and ability-strength features can enter training without leaking the answer.

The Doorman Patch Changes

75 The Doorman patch-change rows are included from the recent patch window.

Patch	Predictor	Direction	Before	After	Notes
2026-07-28	call_bell_charge_timeability:call_bell	Buff	6s	7s	Call Bell Charge Time increased from 6s to 7s
2026-07-28	doorway_durationability:doorway	Nerf	20s	15s	Doorway duration reduced from 20s to 15s
2026-07-28	doorway_t1_durationability:doorway	Buff	+15s	+20s	Doorway T1 duration increased from +15s to +20s
2026-07-28	doorway_t3_rangeability:doorway	Nerf	+45m	+40m	Doorway T3 range reduced from +45m to +40m
2026-07-28	luggage_cart_damageability:luggage_cart	Nerf	80	60	Luggage Cart damage reduced from 80 to 60
2026-07-28	luggage_cart_rangeability:luggage_cart	Nerf	25m	20m	Luggage Cart range reduced from 25m to 20m
2026-07-28	luggage_cart_t1ability:luggage_cart	Buff	+60 Damage	+80	Luggage Cart T1 increased from +60 Damage to +80
2026-07-28	luggage_cart_t2ability:luggage_cart	Buff	+20m Cast Range	+25m	Luggage Cart T2 increased from +20m Cast Range to +25m
2026-07-28	bullet_damage_rescaled_from_26_1_19_boon_to_24_1_25weapon	Rework	26 + 1.19/boon	24 + 1	Bullet damage rescaled from 26 + 1.19/boon to 24 + 1.25
2026-07-09	hotel_guest_t3ability:hotel_guest	Buff	13s Cooldown on Failure	Check Out to 15s	Hotel Guest T3 increased from 13s Cooldown on Failure to Check Out to 15s
2026-07-09	crit_scalingvitality	Nerf	-25%	-30%	Crit scaling reduced from -25% to -30%
2026-07-09	bullet_damage_rescaled_from_29_26_1_1_boon_to_26_1_19weapon	Rework	29.26 + 1.1/boon	26 + 1	Bullet damage rescaled from 29.26 + 1.1/boon to 26 + 1.19
2026-06-30	doorway_cooldownability:doorway	Buff	40s	45s	Doorway cooldown increased from 40s to 45s
2026-06-12	call_bell_explosion_damage_spirit_scalingability:call_bell	Nerf	1.3	1	Call Bell explosion damage spirit scaling reduced from 1.3 to 1.2
2026-06-12	call_bell_t3_spirit_scalingability:call_bell	Nerf	0.4	0	Call Bell T3 spirit scaling reduced from 0.4 to 0.35
2026-05-22	call_bell_explosion_damage_spirit_scalingability:call_bell	Nerf	1.4	1	Call Bell explosion damage spirit scaling reduced from 1.4 to 1.3
2026-05-22	call_bell_inaccuracy_debuffability:call_bell	Nerf	100%	0% over 1 second (the rest of the debuff is 4s)	Call Bell inaccuracy debuff no longer diminishes from 100% to 0% over 1 second (the rest of the debuff is 4s)
2026-05-22	call_bell_inaccuracy_debuffability:call_bell	Nerf	-100%	-40% (lasts the full duration)	Call Bell inaccuracy debuff reduced from -100% to -40% (lasts the full duration)
2026-05-22	call_bell_radiusability:call_bell	Nerf	6m	5	Call Bell radius reduced from 6m to 5.5m
2026-05-22	call_bell_t3_radiusability:call_bell	Buff	+4m	+4	Call Bell T3 radius increased from +4m to +4.5m
2026-05-22	doorway_isability:doorway	Nerf			Doorway is no longer unsilenceable
2026-05-22	doorways_close_sub_abilityability:doorway	Rework			Doorways close sub ability now starts on cooldown for 8s
2026-05-22	fixed_recent_bug_causing_luggage_cart_not_being_dispelledability:luggage_cart	Rework			Fixed recent bug causing Luggage Cart not being dispelled
2026-04-30	fixed_a_bug_that_could_allow_you_to_bring_the_urn_through_a_doorwayability:doorway	Rework			Fixed a bug that could allow you to bring the Urn through a doorway
2026-03-06	call_bellability:call_bell	Rework			Call Bell now has Impact Damage (40+1) and Explosion Damage (55+1.7) as separate components again (previous values for impact/explosion)
2026-03-06	call_bellability:call_bell	Nerf			Call Bell no longer has Impact Damage (was 40 with 1.0 scaling)
2026-03-06	call_bellability:call_bell	Rework			Call Bell now continuously emits slow
2026-03-06	call_bell_explosion_damageability:call_bell	Buff	55	85	Call Bell explosion damage increased from 55 to 85
2026-03-06	call_bell_explosion_damage_spirit_scalingability:call_bell	Nerf	1.7	1	Call Bell explosion damage spirit scaling reduced from 1.7 to 1.4
2026-03-06	call_bell_explosion_damage_spirit_scalingability:call_bell	Nerf	1.7	1	Call Bell explosion damage spirit scaling reduced from 1.7 to 1.4
2026-03-06	call_bell_impact_damage_spirit_scalingability:call_bell	Nerf	1	0	Call Bell impact damage spirit scaling reduced from 1 to 0.7
2026-03-06	call_bell_t1ability:call_bell	Buff	+2m	+2	Call Bell T1 increased from +2m to +2.5m
2026-03-06	call_bell_t1ability:call_bell	Rework	"+3m Radius"	"+1 Charge"	Call Bell T1 changed from "+3m Radius" to "+1 Charge"
2026-03-06	call_bell_t2ability:call_bell	Nerf			Call Bell T2 no longer has Impact Damage
2026-03-06	call_bell_t2ability:call_bell	Rework			Call Bell T2 now increases spirit scaling by +0.6
2026-03-06	call_bell_t2_explosion_damageability:call_bell	Buff	40	75	Call Bell T2 Explosion Damage increased from 40 to 75
2026-03-06	call_bell_t2_isability:call_bell	Rework			Call Bell T2 is now "+30 Impact Damage and +40 Explosion Damage"
2026-03-06	call_bell_t3ability:call_bell	Buff			Call Bell T3 now also increases spirit scaling by +0.4
2026-03-06	call_bell_t3ability:call_bell	Rework	"Impact causes half radius explosions"	"+1 Charge and +22s Lifetime	Call Bell T3 changed from "Impact causes half radius explosions" to "+1 Charge and +22s Lifetime. Causes the radius to continuously apply it's slow"
2026-03-06	call_bell_t3ability:call_bell	Nerf			Call Bell T3 no longer increases slow by -15%
2026-03-06	call_bell_t3ability:call_bell	Buff			Call Bell T3 now also grants +4m Radius
2026-03-06	call_bell_t3ability:call_bell	Nerf			Call Bell T3 no longer grants +1 Charge
2026-03-06	call_bell_t3ability:call_bell	Buff			Call Bell T3 now also increases slow by 15%
2026-03-06	call_bell_t3_durationability:call_bell	Buff	+22s	+26s	Call Bell T3 duration increased from +22s to +26s
2026-03-06	call_bell_time_between_chargesability:call_bell	Buff	4s	6s	Call Bell time between charges increased from 4s to 6s
2026-03-06	doorwayability:doorway	Rework			Doorway now has a timer icon above the ability
2026-03-06	doorwayability:doorway	Rework			Doorway now shows the range of where the second door can be placed on the minimap.
2026-03-06	doorway_t1_durationability:doorway	Buff	+10s	+15s	Doorway T1 duration increased from +10s to +15s
2026-03-06	doorway_t2_barrier_durationability:doorway	Buff	8s	12s	Doorway T2 barrier duration increased from 8s to 12s
2026-03-06	doorway_t3ability:doorway	Nerf	+50m	+45m	Doorway T3 reduced from +50m to +45m
2026-03-06	doorway_t3_distance_spirit_scalingability:doorway	Nerf	0.25	0	Doorway T3 distance spirit scaling reduced from 0.25 to 0.15
2026-03-06	doorway_t3_doorway_distanceability:doorway	Buff			Doorway T3 doorway distance now also scales with Spirit Power (0.25)
2026-03-06	fixed_luggage_cart_moving_targets_with_unstoppable_if_it_goes_through_a_doorwayability:doorway	Rework			Fixed Luggage Cart moving targets with Unstoppable if it goes through a Doorway
2026-03-06	hotel_guestability:hotel_guest	Rework			Hotel Guest now supports instant cast settings
2026-03-06	hotel_guestability:hotel_guest	Rework			Hotel Guest fixed enemies not always landing in the correct spot on return
2026-03-06	hotel_guestability:hotel_guest	Nerf			Hotel Guest no longer goes on cooldown if the target dies during the cast
2026-03-06	hotel_guest_cast_rangeability:hotel_guest	Buff	6m	7m	Hotel Guest cast range increased from 6m to 7m
2026-03-06	hotel_guest_cost_of_stay_damageability:hotel_guest	Nerf	150	75	Hotel Guest cost of stay damage reduced from 150 to 75
2026-03-06	hotel_guest_failure_to_check_out_damageability:hotel_guest	Nerf	250	125	Hotel Guest failure to check-out damage reduced from 250 to 125
2026-03-06	hotel_guest_returning_guestability:hotel_guest	Rework			Hotel Guest returning guest now has a 100% time slow that decays to 0% over 1s
2026-03-06	hotel_guest_t1ability:hotel_guest	Rework	"+2m Cast Range"	"-1 Stamina and -25s Cooldown"	Hotel Guest T1 changed from "+2m Cast Range" to "-1 Stamina and -25s Cooldown"
2026-03-06	hotel_guest_t2ability:hotel_guest	Rework	"Unstoppable while channeling"	"+1	Hotel Guest T2 changed from "Unstoppable while channeling" to "+1.5s Stun On Failure To Checkout and 150 Damage"
2026-03-06	hotel_guest_t3ability:hotel_guest	Rework	"-50s Cooldown"	"Unstoppable while Hotel is occupied	Hotel Guest T3 changed from "-50s Cooldown" to "Unstoppable while Hotel is occupied. 10s Cooldown on Failure to Check Out"
2026-03-06	hotel_guest_t3_late_checkout_cooldownability:hotel_guest	Buff	10s	13s	Hotel Guest T3 late checkout cooldown increased from 10s to 13s
2026-03-06	luggage_cart_isability:luggage_cart	Rework			Luggage Cart is now 20% larger (20% wider hitbox as well)
2026-03-06	luggage_cart_t1ability:luggage_cart	Rework	"-8s Cooldown"	"+60 Damage"	Luggage Cart T1 changed from "-8s Cooldown" to "+60 Damage"
2026-03-06	luggage_cart_t2ability:luggage_cart	Buff	+15m Cast Range	+20m	Luggage Cart T2 increased from +15m Cast Range to +20m
2026-03-06	luggage_cart_t3ability:luggage_cart	Rework	"+45 Cart Damage and 117 Wall Damage and 1.2s Wall Stun"	"+1	Luggage Cart T3 changed from "+45 Cart Damage and 117 Wall Damage and 1.2s Wall Stun" to "+1.5s Wall Stun and -15s Cooldown"
2026-03-06	fixed_issues_where_the_cart_would_hit_a_target_coming_out_of_the_hotel_before_thvitality	Rework			Fixed issues where the cart would hit a target coming out of the hotel before they were supposed to be allowed to be hit, causing the cart to not properly drag the target
2026-03-06	gunvitality	Nerf			Gun now pierces through targets at 50% reduced damage
2025-11-21	call_bell_explosion_damageability:call_bell	Nerf	60	55	Call Bell explosion damage reduced from 60 to 55
2025-11-21	call_bell_impact_damage_spirit_scalingability:call_bell	Buff	0.7	1	Call Bell impact damage spirit scaling increased from 0.7 to 1.0
2025-11-21	call_bell_t2_explosion_damageability:call_bell	Nerf	+50	+45	Call Bell T2 explosion damage reduced from +50 to +45
2025-11-21	base_regen_from_2_to_1vitality	Rework	2	1	Base regen from 2 to 1
2025-11-21	bullet_damage_falloff_and_effectivenessweapon	Rework			Bullet damage falloff and effectiveness now use the actual distance traveled, rather than the distance between the starting position and end position. This fixes shooting through portals not using the right distance for falloff.