Deadlock Hero Balance Predictions
Sinclair buff/nerf predictor prototype
Generated from the Sinclair predictor DuckDB, recent patch history, and a three-stage prediction model.
Prediction Model
Sinclair Buff/Nerf Watch
This page is the hero-side version of the item prediction screen. The target is whether a hero looks more likely to be buffed, nerfed, or left alone in a future patch. This first page is Sinclair-only so the predictors can be reviewed before expanding to every hero.
Best read: this is now a three-stage experiment. It first asks whether Sinclair is likely to change, then which broad mechanic would be selected, then the direction of that selected mechanic. Later stages are conditional and must not be read as standalone certainty.
- Stage 1
- Will Sinclair receive any balance change in the next patch?
- Stage 2
- If Sinclair changes, which mechanic family is most likely to be selected?
- Stage 3
- If that family is selected, does its patch direction look like buff, nerf, or mixed/rework?
- Future learning
- Weekly snapshots preserve hero stats and ability values over time. They are enabled as model features only after changed and unchanged patches both have adequate coverage.
Three-Stage Next-Patch Forecast
1
Will Sinclair change?
8.9%
Estimated chance of any Sinclair balance change. No-change estimate: 91.1%.
Disclaimer: Experimental. This is based on one hero's patch history and has not been proven accurate — Stage 1 and Stage 2 don't yet beat a simple "no change" guess on holdout data. Treat every number on this page as a rough signal, not a confirmed forecast.
Stages 2 and 3: target and direction if Sinclair changes
| Mechanic | Selected if changed | Direction | Buff if selected | Nerf if selected | Mixed/rework if selected | Combined priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spirit | 3.6% | Nerf | 9.0% | 50.8% | 40.2% | 0.3% |
| Vexing Bolt | 1.1% | Nerf | 6.9% | 50.4% | 42.7% | 0.1% |
| Weapon | 0.7% | Mixed Or Rework | 5.6% | 44.1% | 50.3% | 0.1% |
| Rabbit Hex | 0.6% | Mixed Or Rework | 5.6% | 44.1% | 50.3% | 0.1% |
| Audience Participation | 0.5% | Mixed Or Rework | 6.0% | 45.5% | 48.6% | 0.0% |
| Spectral Assistant | 0.5% | Mixed Or Rework | 11.4% | 42.0% | 46.7% | 0.0% |
| Vitality | 0.3% | Mixed Or Rework | 5.2% | 46.3% | 48.5% | 0.0% |
Combined priority multiplies Stage 1 by Stage 2 to help sort the watchlist. It is not a calibrated probability that the named mechanic will change.
Validation and Data Readiness
Every stage uses older patches for training and newer patches for testing. The current patch calendar contains 167 update dates through 2026-11-05.
| Stage | Test rows | Balanced accuracy | Macro F1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stage 1 - hero changedWhether Sinclair receives any balance change. | 34 | 50.0% | 0.493 |
| Stage 2 - mechanic selectedWhich mechanic family is selected if Sinclair changes. | 238 | 50.0% | 0.494 |
| Stage 3 - conditional directionBuff, nerf, or mixed/rework after a mechanic is selected. | 6 | 50.0% | 0.400 |
Performance feature gate: withheld. Historical pre-patch win-rate coverage is 17.4%; the required coverage is 80.0%. Performance features are withheld because missingness is too sparse or too strongly associated with whether Sinclair changed.
The weekly collector now stores all hero performance, base stats, and ability properties without overwriting prior snapshots. Once enough unchanged and changed patches have comparable coverage, performance and ability-strength features can enter training without leaking the answer.
Sinclair Patch Changes
13 Sinclair patch-change rows are included from the recent patch window.
| Patch | Predictor | Direction | Before | After | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 | audience_participation_copied_cooldownability:audience_participation | Buff | 40% | 60% | Audience Participation - Copied cooldown increased from 40% to 60% |
| 2026-10-05 | audience_participation_copy_durationability:audience_participation | Nerf | 12s | 9s | Audience Participation - Copy duration reduced from 12s to 9s |
| 2026-10-05 | rabbit_hex_radiusability:rabbit_hex | Nerf | 6.5m | 6m | Rabbit Hex - Radius reduced from 6.5m to 6m |
| 2026-10-05 | rabbit_hex_t3ability:rabbit_hex | Nerf | +3m Radius | +2m | Rabbit Hex - T3 reduced from +3m Radius to +2m |
| 2026-10-05 | spectral_assistant_gun_falloff_rangeability:spectral_assistant | Nerf | 25-61 | 20-60 | Spectral Assistant - Gun falloff range reduced from 25-61 to 20-60 |
| 2026-10-05 | vexing_boltability:vexing_bolt | Rework | Vexing Bolt - Now does half damage to objectives | ||
| 2026-10-05 | base_hp_regenvitality | Nerf | 2 | 1 | Base HP Regen reduced from 2 to 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | gun_falloff_rangevitality | Nerf | 25-61 | 20-60 | Gun - Falloff range reduced from 25-61 to 20-60 |
| 2026-10-05 | gunweapon | Nerf | 17.76 | 16 | Gun - Reduced bullet base damage from 17.76 to 16.5 |
| 2025-11-21 | audience_participation_cooldownability:audience_participation | Nerf | 50% | 40% | Audience Participation cooldown reduced from 50% to 40% |
| 2025-11-21 | spectral_assistant_total_swaps_allowedability:spectral_assistant | Buff | 1 | 2 | Spectral Assistant total swaps allowed increased from 1 to 2 |
| 2025-11-21 | healthvitality | Nerf | 700 | 650 | Health reduced from 700 to 650 |
| 2025-11-21 | regenvitality | Nerf | 3 | 2 | Regen reduced from 3 to 2 |
Hero Balance Predictions
Sinclair buff/nerf prototype
Forecasts whether Sinclair is likely to change next patch, using recent patch history and the Sinclair predictor DuckDB.