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Prediction Model

Silver Buff/Nerf Watch

This page is the hero-side version of the item prediction screen. The target is whether a hero looks more likely to be buffed, nerfed, or left alone in a future patch. This first page is Silver-only so the predictors can be reviewed before expanding to every hero.

Best read: this is now a three-stage experiment. It first asks whether Silver is likely to change, then which broad mechanic would be selected, then the direction of that selected mechanic. Later stages are conditional and must not be read as standalone certainty.

Stage 1: Will Silver receive any balance change in the next patch?
Stage 2: If Silver changes, which mechanic family is most likely to be selected?
Stage 3: If that family is selected, does its patch direction look like buff, nerf, or mixed/rework?
Future learning: Weekly snapshots preserve hero stats and ability values over time. They are enabled as model features only after changed and unchanged patches both have adequate coverage.

Three-Stage Next-Patch Forecast

1

Will Silver change?

22.6%

Estimated chance of any Silver balance change. No-change estimate: 77.4%.

Disclaimer: Experimental. This is based on one hero's patch history and has not been proven accurate — Stage 1 and Stage 2 don't yet beat a simple "no change" guess on holdout data. Treat every number on this page as a rough signal, not a confirmed forecast.

Stages 2 and 3: target and direction if Silver changes

Mechanic	Selected if changed	Direction	Buff if selected	Nerf if selected	Mixed/rework if selected	Combined priority
Lycan Curse	9.7%	Nerf	22.6%	48.3%	29.0%	2.2%
Slam Fire	7.5%	Nerf	14.5%	65.3%	20.1%	1.7%
Weapon	4.9%	Nerf	22.6%	43.9%	33.5%	1.1%
Entangling Bola	2.5%	Nerf	30.8%	45.0%	24.2%	0.6%
Vitality	1.3%	Nerf	26.9%	41.6%	31.5%	0.3%
Spirit	1.0%	Nerf	24.0%	38.8%	37.2%	0.2%
Boot Kick	0.8%	Nerf	28.4%	39.8%	31.8%	0.2%

Combined priority multiplies Stage 1 by Stage 2 to help sort the watchlist. It is not a calibrated probability that the named mechanic will change.

Validation and Data Readiness

Every stage uses older patches for training and newer patches for testing. The current patch calendar contains 138 update dates through 2026-06-12.

Stage	Test rows	Balanced accuracy	Macro F1
Stage 1 - hero changedWhether Silver receives any balance change.	28	50.0%	0.451
Stage 2 - mechanic selectedWhich mechanic family is selected if Silver changes.	196	50.0%	0.481
Stage 3 - conditional directionBuff, nerf, or mixed/rework after a mechanic is selected.	1	0.0%	0.000

Performance feature gate: withheld. Historical pre-patch win-rate coverage is 0.0%; the required coverage is 80.0%. Performance features are withheld because missingness is too sparse or too strongly associated with whether Silver changed.

The weekly collector now stores all hero performance, base stats, and ability properties without overwriting prior snapshots. Once enough unchanged and changed patches have comparable coverage, performance and ability-strength features can enter training without leaking the answer.

Silver Patch Changes

38 Silver patch-change rows are included from the recent patch window.

Patch	Predictor	Direction	Before	After	Notes
2026-06-12	lycan_curse_cooldownability:lycan_curse	Buff	40s	70s	Lycan Curse cooldown increased from 40s to 70s
2026-06-12	lycan_curse_t3ability:lycan_curse	Nerf			Lycan Curse T3 no longer heals
2026-05-31	entangling_bola_cooldownability:entangling_bola	Buff	20s	23s	Entangling Bola cooldown increased from 20s to 23s
2026-05-31	entangling_bola_t2ability:entangling_bola	Buff	-5s Cooldown	-8s	Entangling Bola T2 increased from -5s Cooldown to -8s
2026-05-31	lycan_curse_fire_rateability:lycan_curse	Nerf	65%	60%	Lycan Curse Fire Rate reduced from 65% to 60%
2026-05-31	slam_fire_current_health_as_damageability:slam_fire	Nerf	3%	2	Slam Fire Current Health as Damage reduced from 3% to 2.5%
2026-05-31	slam_fire_t3ability:slam_fire	Nerf	8% Current Health as Damage	7%	Slam Fire T3 reduced from 8% Current Health as Damage to 7%
2026-05-22	entangling_bolaability:entangling_bola	Nerf			Entangling Bola no longer prevents you from jumping and mantling
2026-05-22	entangling_bola_t2ability:entangling_bola	Rework	"+0.75s Duration"	"-5s Cooldown"	Entangling Bola T2 changed from "+0.75s Duration" to "-5s Cooldown"
2026-05-22	entangling_bola_t3ability:entangling_bola	Rework	"-5s Cooldown and Ricochet	2 additional targets" to "+0	Entangling Bola T3 changed from "-5s Cooldown and Ricochet to 2 additional targets" to "+0.75s Duration and Ricochet to 2 additional targets"
2026-05-22	lycan_curse_fire_rateability:lycan_curse	Nerf	80%	65%	Lycan Curse Fire Rate reduced from 80% to 65%
2026-05-22	lycan_curse_fire_rate_spirit_scalingability:lycan_curse	Buff	0.25	0	Lycan Curse Fire Rate spirit scaling increased from 0.25 to 0.45
2026-05-22	bullet_cycle_timeweapon	Nerf	0.9s	0	Bullet Cycle Time reduced from 0.9s to 0.85s (overall DPS adjusted to remain the same)
2026-04-30	slam_fire_current_health_as_damageability:slam_fire	Nerf	4%	3%	Slam Fire Current Health As Damage reduced from 4% to 3%
2026-04-30	fixed_tail_whack_applying_12_bullet_resist_for_the_disarm_durationweapon	Rework			Fixed Tail Whack applying -12% Bullet Resist for the Disarm duration
2026-03-06	boot_kickability:boot_kick	Rework			Boot Kick now uses a break-off angle when grounded, allowing upward movement if looking up enough
2026-03-06	go_for_the_throat_boot_kick_and_mauling_leapability:boot_kick	Rework			Go For The Throat, Boot Kick and Mauling Leap now benefit from range increases
2026-03-06	lycan_curseability:lycan_curse	Nerf			Lycan Curse no longer grants +2m Move Speed
2026-03-06	lycan_curseability:lycan_curse	Buff			Lycan Curse now grants 1.5m Move Speed
2026-03-06	lycan_curseability:lycan_curse	Nerf			Lycan Curse no longer grants +14% Bullet and Spirit Resistance
2026-03-06	lycan_curse_base_health_bonusability:lycan_curse	Nerf	100	75	Lycan Curse base health bonus reduced from 100 to 75
2026-03-06	lycan_curse_base_health_bonusability:lycan_curse	Buff	+75	+125	Lycan Curse base health bonus increased from +75 to +125
2026-03-06	lycan_curse_cooldownability:lycan_curse	Nerf	50s	40s	Lycan Curse cooldown reduced from 50s to 40s
2026-03-06	lycan_curse_cooldownability:lycan_curse	Buff	35s	50s	Lycan Curse cooldown increased from 35s to 50s
2026-03-06	lycan_curse_t1ability:lycan_curse	Buff	15% Resists	18%	Lycan Curse T1 increased from 15% Resists to 18%
2026-03-06	lycan_curse_t1ability:lycan_curse	Buff	+18% Resists	+20%	Lycan Curse T1 increased from +18% Resists to +20%
2026-03-06	lycan_curse_t1_resistability:lycan_curse	Buff	+14%	+15%	Lycan Curse T1 resist increased from +14% to +15%
2026-03-06	lycan_curse_t2ability:lycan_curse	Buff	+3m	+4m	Lycan Curse T2 increased from +3m to +4m
2026-03-06	lycan_curse_t2ability:lycan_curse	Buff	+150 Bonus Health	+200	Lycan Curse T2 increased from +150 Bonus Health to +200
2026-03-06	lycan_curse_t2_bonus_healthability:lycan_curse	Buff	125	150	Lycan Curse T2 bonus health increased from 125 to 150
2026-03-06	lycan_curse_t3ability:lycan_curse	Rework			Lycan Curse T3 now has a 1.5s buffer for kill credit
2026-03-06	slam_fire_weapon_accuracyability:slam_fire	Nerf	-25%	-30%	Slam Fire Weapon Accuracy reduced from -25% to -30%
2026-03-06	tail_whack_spirit_scalingspirit	Buff	1	1	Tail Whack spirit scaling increased from 1 to 1.5
2026-03-06	fixed_tail_whack_being_considered_a_movement_abilityvitality	Rework			Fixed Tail Whack being considered a movement ability
2026-03-06	mauling_leap_damage_scalingvitality	Nerf	1.9	1	Mauling Leap damage scaling reduced from 1.9 to 1.5
2026-03-06	tail_whack_disarm_durationvitality	Nerf	2.5s	2s	Tail Whack disarm duration reduced from 2.5s to 2s
2026-03-06	tail_whack_slow_durationvitality	Buff	1.5s	2s	Tail Whack slow duration increased from 1.5s to 2s
2026-03-06	tail_whack_t3vitality	Rework	"+1s Disarm Duration"	"1	Tail Whack T3 changed from "+1s Disarm Duration" to "1.5s Debuff Duration"