Deadlock Hero Balance Predictions
Shiv buff/nerf predictor prototype
Generated from the Shiv predictor DuckDB, recent patch history, and a three-stage prediction model.
Prediction Model

Shiv Buff/Nerf Watch

This page is the hero-side version of the item prediction screen. The target is whether a hero looks more likely to be buffed, nerfed, or left alone in a future patch. This first page is Shiv-only so the predictors can be reviewed before expanding to every hero.

Best read: this is now a three-stage experiment. It first asks whether Shiv is likely to change, then which broad mechanic would be selected, then the direction of that selected mechanic. Later stages are conditional and must not be read as standalone certainty.
Stage 1
Will Shiv receive any balance change in the next patch?
Stage 2
If Shiv changes, which mechanic family is most likely to be selected?
Stage 3
If that family is selected, does its patch direction look like buff, nerf, or mixed/rework?
Future learning
Weekly snapshots preserve hero stats and ability values over time. They are enabled as model features only after changed and unchanged patches both have adequate coverage.
Three-Stage Next-Patch Forecast
1

Will Shiv change?

53.0%

Estimated chance of any Shiv balance change. No-change estimate: 47.0%.

Disclaimer: Experimental. This is based on one hero's patch history and has not been proven accurate — Stage 1 and Stage 2 don't yet beat a simple "no change" guess on holdout data. Treat every number on this page as a rough signal, not a confirmed forecast.

Stages 2 and 3: target and direction if Shiv changes

Mechanic Selected if changed Direction Buff if selected Nerf if selected Mixed/rework if selected Combined priority
Killing Blow 19.5% Nerf 13.0% 53.3% 33.6% 10.3%
Vitality 17.7% Nerf 24.4% 46.2% 29.4% 9.4%
Bloodletting 15.4% Nerf 12.5% 58.2% 29.3% 8.1%
Weapon 14.5% Nerf 12.9% 55.6% 31.4% 7.7%
Slice And Dice 11.2% Nerf 15.6% 55.3% 29.1% 6.0%
Serrated Knives 10.7% Nerf 19.0% 54.4% 26.6% 5.7%
Spirit 4.0% Mixed Or Rework 41.5% 8.8% 49.7% 2.1%

Combined priority multiplies Stage 1 by Stage 2 to help sort the watchlist. It is not a calibrated probability that the named mechanic will change.

Validation and Data Readiness

Every stage uses older patches for training and newer patches for testing. The current patch calendar contains 147 update dates through 2026-08-02.

Stage Test rows Balanced accuracy Macro F1
Stage 1 - hero changedWhether Shiv receives any balance change. 30 50.0% 0.423
Stage 2 - mechanic selectedWhich mechanic family is selected if Shiv changes. 210 50.0% 0.467
Stage 3 - conditional directionBuff, nerf, or mixed/rework after a mechanic is selected. 6 50.0% 0.452
Performance feature gate: withheld. Historical pre-patch win-rate coverage is 6.1%; the required coverage is 80.0%. Performance features are withheld because missingness is too sparse or too strongly associated with whether Shiv changed.

The weekly collector now stores all hero performance, base stats, and ability properties without overwriting prior snapshots. Once enough unchanged and changed patches have comparable coverage, performance and ability-strength features can enter training without leaking the answer.

Shiv Patch Changes

74 Shiv patch-change rows are included from the recent patch window.

Patch Predictor Direction Before After Notes
2026-07-28 killing_blow_recast_windowability:killing_blow Nerf 20s 16s Killing Blow recast window reduced from 20s to 16s
2026-07-28 stamina_regenvitality Buff 5.5s 6s Stamina regen increased from 5.5s to 6s
2026-07-09 bloodletting_cooldownability:bloodletting Nerf 20s 25s Bloodletting cooldown increased from 20s to 25s
2026-07-09 bloodletting_damage_clearedability:bloodletting Nerf 35% 30% Bloodletting Damage Cleared reduced from 35% to 30%
2026-07-09 bloodletting_t1ability:bloodletting Buff -10s Cooldown -15s Bloodletting T1 increased from -10s Cooldown to -15s
2026-07-09 bloodletting_t2_damage_clearedability:bloodletting Buff 35% 40% Bloodletting T2 Damage Cleared increased from 35% to 40%
2026-07-09 killing_blow_health_thresholdability:killing_blow Nerf 20% 18% Killing Blow Health Threshold reduced from 20% to 18%
2026-07-09 killing_blow_t3_health_thresholdability:killing_blow Buff +8% +10% Killing Blow T3 Health Threshold increased from +8% to +10%
2026-07-09 serrated_knives_t3_spirit_scalingability:serrated_knives Nerf +0.09 +0 Serrated Knives T3 spirit scaling reduced from +0.09 to +0.07
2026-07-09 slice_and_dice_spirit_scalingability:slice_and_dice Nerf 1.44 1 Slice and Dice spirit scaling reduced from 1.44 to 1.2
2026-07-09 slice_and_dice_t2ability:slice_and_dice Nerf -6% Spirit Resist -4% Slice and Dice T2 reduced from -6% Spirit Resist to -4%
2026-07-01 killing_blow_t3ability:killing_blow Nerf +10% Enemy Health Threshold +8% Killing Blow T3 reduced from +10% Enemy Health Threshold to +8%
2026-07-01 slice_and_dice_damageability:slice_and_dice Buff 60 75 Slice and Dice damage increased from 60 to 75
2026-07-01 slice_and_dice_isability:slice_and_dice Rework Slice and Dice is now back to doing spirit damage and reducing Spirit Resistance from enemies
2026-07-01 alt_fire_ammo_costweapon Nerf 5 4 Alt Fire ammo cost reduced from 5 to 4
2026-07-01 weaponweapon Rework Weapon now has fixed pellet spread
2026-06-30 bloodletting_t2ability:bloodletting Rework "+15% Incoming Damage Deferred" "+35% Deferred Damage Cleared" Bloodletting T2 changed from "+15% Incoming Damage Deferred" to "+35% Deferred Damage Cleared"
2026-06-30 bloodletting_t3ability:bloodletting Rework "+50% Deferred Damage Cleared" "+15% Incoming Damage Deferred" Bloodletting T3 changed from "+50% Deferred Damage Cleared" to "+15% Incoming Damage Deferred"
2026-06-30 killing_blowability:killing_blow Buff Killing Blow now deals damage to troopers and neutrals along the way
2026-06-30 killing_blowability:killing_blow Rework Killing Blow now has the T3 "recast within 20s on a hero kill" as part of the base ability
2026-06-30 killing_blow_executing_a_heroability:killing_blow Rework Killing Blow executing a hero now instantly fills the rage bar
2026-06-30 killing_blow_full_rage_damage_bonusability:killing_blow Nerf +12% +8% Killing Blow Full Rage Damage Bonus reduced from +12% to +8%
2026-06-30 killing_blow_rangeability:killing_blow Nerf 18m 12m Killing Blow range reduced from 18m to 12m
2026-06-30 killing_blow_t1ability:killing_blow Buff Killing Blow T1 now also increases range by +6m
2026-06-30 killing_blow_t2ability:killing_blow Buff +10% Full Rage Bonus Damage +16% Killing Blow T2 increased from +10% Full Rage Bonus Damage to +16%
2026-06-30 killing_blow_t3ability:killing_blow Buff +5% Enemy health Threshold +10% Killing Blow T3 increased from +5% Enemy health Threshold to +10%
2026-06-30 serrated_knives_cooldownability:serrated_knives Buff 18s 16s Serrated Knives cooldown reduced from 18s to 16s
2026-06-30 slice_and_diceability:slice_and_dice Buff Slice and Dice now deals +25 light melee damage (75 total) instead of 60 spirit damage
2026-06-30 slice_and_diceability:slice_and_dice Rework -6% Spirit Resist +4% Damage Amp Slice and Dice changed from -6% Spirit Resist to +4% Damage Amp
2026-06-30 alt_fire_ammo_consumed_per_shotweapon Buff 3 5 Alt Fire ammo consumed per shot increased from 3 to 5
2026-06-30 alt_fire_damageweapon Rework Alt Fire damage now has a custom value per boon (+0.2)
2026-06-30 alt_fire_knockback_movement_isweapon Rework Alt Fire knockback movement is now disabled by slowing hex state
2026-06-12 killing_blow_miss_cooldownability:killing_blow Nerf normal +30% Killing Blow has 30% more cooldown when it does not impact a player.
2026-05-22 bloodletting_deferred_damage_clearedability:bloodletting Nerf 40% 35% Deferred Damage Cleared reduced from 40% to 35%.
2026-05-22 bloodletting_t3_deferred_damage_clearedability:bloodletting Buff +45% +50% T3 Deferred Damage Cleared increased from +45% to +50%.
2026-05-22 killing_blow_cooldownability:killing_blow Nerf 105 125 Cooldown increased from 105s to 125s.
2026-05-22 killing_blow_full_rage_damage_bonusability:killing_blow Nerf 14% 12% Full-rage damage bonus reduced from 14% to 12%.
2026-05-22 killing_blow_t2_cooldownability:killing_blow Buff 0 -30s T2 now also reduces cooldown by 30 seconds.
2026-05-22 killing_blow_t2_full_rage_damage_bonusability:killing_blow Buff +8% +10% T2 full-rage damage bonus increased from +8% to +10%.
2026-05-22 slice_and_dice_t2_spirit_resistability:slice_and_dice Nerf -8% -6% T2 Spirit Resistance reduction reduced from -8% to -6%.
2026-04-30 serrated_knives_spirit_scalingability:serrated_knives Nerf 0.15 0.13 Serrated Knives spirit scaling reduced from 0.15 to 0.13.
2026-04-30 serrated_knives_t3_spirit_scalingability:serrated_knives Nerf +0.10 +0.09 T3 spirit scaling reduced from +0.10 to +0.09.
2026-04-30 alt_fire_knockbackweapon Nerf +10% baseline Alt fire knockback reduced by 10%.
2026-03-06 bloodletting_healing_modifiersability:bloodletting Rework unaffected affected Bloodletting is now affected by healing modifiers.
2026-03-06 bloodletting_slide_castability:bloodletting Buff interrupts slide preserves slide Bloodletting no longer interrupts sliding when cast.
2026-03-06 killing_blow_damage_ampability:killing_blow Nerf 15% 14% Damage amplification reduced from 15% to 14%.
2026-03-06 killing_blow_forward_continuationability:killing_blow Buff stops continues Killing Blow continues forward until it reaches a killable target or runs out of range.
2026-03-06 killing_blow_rangeability:killing_blow Buff 13 18 Range increased from 13m to 18m.
2026-03-06 killing_blow_t2ability:killing_blow Rework +5% threshold and +6% amp +8% amp T2 changed to +8% damage amplification.
2026-03-06 killing_blow_t3_health_thresholdability:killing_blow Buff 0 +5% T3 now increases the enemy health threshold by +5%.
2026-03-06 killing_blow_t3_recastability:killing_blow Buff cooldown removed 20s recast window T3 now grants a 20 second recast window.
2026-03-06 killing_blow_targetingability:killing_blow Rework unit targeted directional leap Killing Blow changed from unit targeted to a directional leap.
2026-03-06 killing_blow_travel_speedability:killing_blow Buff previous faster Travel speed increased.
2026-03-06 serrated_knives_bleed_dps_per_knifeability:serrated_knives Buff 4 10 Bleed DPS per knife increased from 4 to 10.
2026-03-06 serrated_knives_cooldownability:serrated_knives Nerf 16 18 Cooldown increased from 16s to 18s.
2026-03-06 serrated_knives_impact_damageability:serrated_knives Nerf enabled removed Serrated Knives no longer has impact damage.
2026-03-06 serrated_knives_spirit_scalingability:serrated_knives Buff 0.13 0.15 Bleed DPS spirit scaling increased from 0.13 to 0.15.
2026-03-06 serrated_knives_t1ability:serrated_knives Rework +1 charge +2s duration T1 changed from +1 charge to +2s duration.
2026-03-06 serrated_knives_t2ability:serrated_knives Rework +2s duration +2 charges T2 changed from +2s duration to +2 charges.
2026-03-06 serrated_knives_t3_dpsability:serrated_knives Buff +5.5 +12 T3 DPS increased from +5.5 to +12.
2026-03-06 serrated_knives_t3_impact_damageability:serrated_knives Nerf +30 removed T3 no longer has +30 impact damage.
2026-03-06 serrated_knives_t3_spirit_scalingability:serrated_knives Buff 0 +0.10 T3 now increases spirit scaling by +0.10.
2026-03-06 slice_and_dice_cooldownability:slice_and_dice Nerf 15 16 Cooldown increased from 15s to 16s.
2026-03-06 slice_and_dice_impact_damageability:slice_and_dice Nerf 75 60 Impact damage reduced from 75 to 60.
2026-03-06 slice_and_dice_spirit_resist_reductionability:slice_and_dice Buff 0 6% Now reduces Spirit Resistance by 6% for 16s; instances stack.
2026-03-06 slice_and_dice_t1_cooldownability:slice_and_dice Buff -3 -6 T1 cooldown reduction increased from -3s to -6s.
2026-03-06 slice_and_dice_t2ability:slice_and_dice Rework +50 impact damage -8% spirit resistance and +2m range T2 changed to Spirit Resistance reduction and dash range.
2026-03-06 slice_and_dice_t3_impact_damageability:slice_and_dice Buff 0 +50 T3 now also grants +50 impact damage.
2026-03-06 staminavitality Buff 2 3 Stamina increased from 2 to 3.
2026-03-06 staminavitality Nerf 3 2 Stamina reduced from 3 to 2.
2026-03-06 stamina_cooldownvitality Nerf 4.5 5.5 Stamina cooldown increased from 4.5s to 5.5s.
2026-03-06 stamina_movement_speedvitality Nerf 6.7 6.5 Stamina movement speed reduced from 6.7 to 6.5.
2026-03-06 alt_fire_knockbackweapon Buff baseline +10% Alt fire knockback increased by 10%.
2026-03-06 bullet_damage_growthweapon Buff 0.154 0.165 Bullet damage growth increased from 0.154 to 0.165.
Deadlock
Hero Balance Predictions
Shiv buff/nerf prototype
Forecasts whether Shiv is likely to change next patch, using recent patch history and the Shiv predictor DuckDB.