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Prediction Model

Shiv Buff/Nerf Watch

This page is the hero-side version of the item prediction screen. The target is whether a hero looks more likely to be buffed, nerfed, or left alone in a future patch. This first page is Shiv-only so the predictors can be reviewed before expanding to every hero.

Best read: this is now a three-stage experiment. It first asks whether Shiv is likely to change, then which broad mechanic would be selected, then the direction of that selected mechanic. Later stages are conditional and must not be read as standalone certainty.

Stage 1: Will Shiv receive any balance change in the next patch?
Stage 2: If Shiv changes, which mechanic family is most likely to be selected?
Stage 3: If that family is selected, does its patch direction look like buff, nerf, or mixed/rework?
Future learning: Weekly snapshots preserve hero stats and ability values over time. They are enabled as model features only after changed and unchanged patches both have adequate coverage.

Three-Stage Next-Patch Forecast

1

Will Shiv change?

26.4%

Estimated chance of any Shiv balance change. No-change estimate: 73.6%.

Disclaimer: Experimental. This is based on one hero's patch history and has not been proven accurate — Stage 1 and Stage 2 don't yet beat a simple "no change" guess on holdout data. Treat every number on this page as a rough signal, not a confirmed forecast.

Stages 2 and 3: target and direction if Shiv changes

Mechanic	Selected if changed	Direction	Buff if selected	Nerf if selected	Mixed/rework if selected	Combined priority
Bloodletting	11.2%	Nerf	3.2%	62.7%	34.1%	3.0%
Spirit	4.5%	Mixed Or Rework	22.1%	23.8%	54.0%	1.2%
Killing Blow	4.2%	Nerf	1.9%	76.2%	21.9%	1.1%
Slice And Dice	3.5%	Nerf	2.8%	76.2%	21.0%	0.9%
Vitality	2.5%	Nerf	9.5%	52.8%	37.6%	0.6%
Serrated Knives	2.1%	Nerf	3.3%	69.8%	26.9%	0.6%
Weapon	2.1%	Nerf	10.8%	52.2%	36.9%	0.5%

Combined priority multiplies Stage 1 by Stage 2 to help sort the watchlist. It is not a calibrated probability that the named mechanic will change.

Validation and Data Readiness

Every stage uses older patches for training and newer patches for testing. The current patch calendar contains 138 update dates through 2026-06-12.

Stage	Test rows	Balanced accuracy	Macro F1
Stage 1 - hero changedWhether Shiv receives any balance change.	28	50.0%	0.462
Stage 2 - mechanic selectedWhich mechanic family is selected if Shiv changes.	196	50.0%	0.484
Stage 3 - conditional directionBuff, nerf, or mixed/rework after a mechanic is selected.	1	100.0%	1.000

Performance feature gate: withheld. Historical pre-patch win-rate coverage is 0.0%; the required coverage is 80.0%. Performance features are withheld because missingness is too sparse or too strongly associated with whether Shiv changed.

The weekly collector now stores all hero performance, base stats, and ability properties without overwriting prior snapshots. Once enough unchanged and changed patches have comparable coverage, performance and ability-strength features can enter training without leaking the answer.

Shiv Patch Changes

42 Shiv patch-change rows are included from the recent patch window.

Patch	Predictor	Direction	Before	After	Notes
2026-06-12	killing_blow_miss_cooldownability:killing_blow	Nerf	normal	+30%	Killing Blow has 30% more cooldown when it does not impact a player.
2026-05-22	bloodletting_deferred_damage_clearedability:bloodletting	Nerf	40%	35%	Deferred Damage Cleared reduced from 40% to 35%.
2026-05-22	bloodletting_t3_deferred_damage_clearedability:bloodletting	Buff	+45%	+50%	T3 Deferred Damage Cleared increased from +45% to +50%.
2026-05-22	killing_blow_cooldownability:killing_blow	Nerf	105	125	Cooldown increased from 105s to 125s.
2026-05-22	killing_blow_full_rage_damage_bonusability:killing_blow	Nerf	14%	12%	Full-rage damage bonus reduced from 14% to 12%.
2026-05-22	killing_blow_t2_cooldownability:killing_blow	Buff	0	-30s	T2 now also reduces cooldown by 30 seconds.
2026-05-22	killing_blow_t2_full_rage_damage_bonusability:killing_blow	Buff	+8%	+10%	T2 full-rage damage bonus increased from +8% to +10%.
2026-05-22	slice_and_dice_t2_spirit_resistability:slice_and_dice	Nerf	-8%	-6%	T2 Spirit Resistance reduction reduced from -8% to -6%.
2026-04-30	serrated_knives_spirit_scalingability:serrated_knives	Nerf	0.15	0.13	Serrated Knives spirit scaling reduced from 0.15 to 0.13.
2026-04-30	serrated_knives_t3_spirit_scalingability:serrated_knives	Nerf	+0.10	+0.09	T3 spirit scaling reduced from +0.10 to +0.09.
2026-04-30	alt_fire_knockbackweapon	Nerf	+10%	baseline	Alt fire knockback reduced by 10%.
2026-03-06	bloodletting_healing_modifiersability:bloodletting	Rework	unaffected	affected	Bloodletting is now affected by healing modifiers.
2026-03-06	bloodletting_slide_castability:bloodletting	Buff	interrupts slide	preserves slide	Bloodletting no longer interrupts sliding when cast.
2026-03-06	killing_blow_damage_ampability:killing_blow	Nerf	15%	14%	Damage amplification reduced from 15% to 14%.
2026-03-06	killing_blow_forward_continuationability:killing_blow	Buff	stops	continues	Killing Blow continues forward until it reaches a killable target or runs out of range.
2026-03-06	killing_blow_rangeability:killing_blow	Buff	13	18	Range increased from 13m to 18m.
2026-03-06	killing_blow_t2ability:killing_blow	Rework	+5% threshold and +6% amp	+8% amp	T2 changed to +8% damage amplification.
2026-03-06	killing_blow_t3_health_thresholdability:killing_blow	Buff	0	+5%	T3 now increases the enemy health threshold by +5%.
2026-03-06	killing_blow_t3_recastability:killing_blow	Buff	cooldown removed	20s recast window	T3 now grants a 20 second recast window.
2026-03-06	killing_blow_targetingability:killing_blow	Rework	unit targeted	directional leap	Killing Blow changed from unit targeted to a directional leap.
2026-03-06	killing_blow_travel_speedability:killing_blow	Buff	previous	faster	Travel speed increased.
2026-03-06	serrated_knives_bleed_dps_per_knifeability:serrated_knives	Buff	4	10	Bleed DPS per knife increased from 4 to 10.
2026-03-06	serrated_knives_cooldownability:serrated_knives	Nerf	16	18	Cooldown increased from 16s to 18s.
2026-03-06	serrated_knives_impact_damageability:serrated_knives	Nerf	enabled	removed	Serrated Knives no longer has impact damage.
2026-03-06	serrated_knives_spirit_scalingability:serrated_knives	Buff	0.13	0.15	Bleed DPS spirit scaling increased from 0.13 to 0.15.
2026-03-06	serrated_knives_t1ability:serrated_knives	Rework	+1 charge	+2s duration	T1 changed from +1 charge to +2s duration.
2026-03-06	serrated_knives_t2ability:serrated_knives	Rework	+2s duration	+2 charges	T2 changed from +2s duration to +2 charges.
2026-03-06	serrated_knives_t3_dpsability:serrated_knives	Buff	+5.5	+12	T3 DPS increased from +5.5 to +12.
2026-03-06	serrated_knives_t3_impact_damageability:serrated_knives	Nerf	+30	removed	T3 no longer has +30 impact damage.
2026-03-06	serrated_knives_t3_spirit_scalingability:serrated_knives	Buff	0	+0.10	T3 now increases spirit scaling by +0.10.
2026-03-06	slice_and_dice_cooldownability:slice_and_dice	Nerf	15	16	Cooldown increased from 15s to 16s.
2026-03-06	slice_and_dice_impact_damageability:slice_and_dice	Nerf	75	60	Impact damage reduced from 75 to 60.
2026-03-06	slice_and_dice_spirit_resist_reductionability:slice_and_dice	Buff	0	6%	Now reduces Spirit Resistance by 6% for 16s; instances stack.
2026-03-06	slice_and_dice_t1_cooldownability:slice_and_dice	Buff	-3	-6	T1 cooldown reduction increased from -3s to -6s.
2026-03-06	slice_and_dice_t2ability:slice_and_dice	Rework	+50 impact damage	-8% spirit resistance and +2m range	T2 changed to Spirit Resistance reduction and dash range.
2026-03-06	slice_and_dice_t3_impact_damageability:slice_and_dice	Buff	0	+50	T3 now also grants +50 impact damage.
2026-03-06	staminavitality	Buff	2	3	Stamina increased from 2 to 3.
2026-03-06	staminavitality	Nerf	3	2	Stamina reduced from 3 to 2.
2026-03-06	stamina_cooldownvitality	Nerf	4.5	5.5	Stamina cooldown increased from 4.5s to 5.5s.
2026-03-06	stamina_movement_speedvitality	Nerf	6.7	6.5	Stamina movement speed reduced from 6.7 to 6.5.
2026-03-06	alt_fire_knockbackweapon	Buff	baseline	+10%	Alt fire knockback increased by 10%.
2026-03-06	bullet_damage_growthweapon	Buff	0.154	0.165	Bullet damage growth increased from 0.154 to 0.165.