Deadlock Hero Balance Predictions
Seven buff/nerf predictor prototype
Generated from the Seven predictor DuckDB, recent patch history, and a three-stage prediction model.
Prediction Model
Seven Buff/Nerf Watch
This page is the hero-side version of the item prediction screen. The target is whether a hero looks more likely to be buffed, nerfed, or left alone in a future patch. This first page is Seven-only so the predictors can be reviewed before expanding to every hero.
Best read: this is now a three-stage experiment. It first asks whether Seven is likely to change, then which broad mechanic would be selected, then the direction of that selected mechanic. Later stages are conditional and must not be read as standalone certainty.
- Stage 1
- Will Seven receive any balance change in the next patch?
- Stage 2
- If Seven changes, which mechanic family is most likely to be selected?
- Stage 3
- If that family is selected, does its patch direction look like buff, nerf, or mixed/rework?
- Future learning
- Weekly snapshots preserve hero stats and ability values over time. They are enabled as model features only after changed and unchanged patches both have adequate coverage.
Three-Stage Next-Patch Forecast
1
Will Seven change?
19.9%
Estimated chance of any Seven balance change. No-change estimate: 80.1%.
Disclaimer: Experimental. This is based on one hero's patch history and has not been proven accurate — Stage 1 and Stage 2 don't yet beat a simple "no change" guess on holdout data. Treat every number on this page as a rough signal, not a confirmed forecast.
Stages 2 and 3: target and direction if Seven changes
| Mechanic | Selected if changed | Direction | Buff if selected | Nerf if selected | Mixed/rework if selected | Combined priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spirit | 18.9% | Nerf | 15.3% | 60.9% | 23.8% | 3.8% |
| Lightning Ball | 18.1% | Nerf | 16.4% | 58.0% | 25.6% | 3.6% |
| Static Charge | 14.7% | Nerf | 16.6% | 59.0% | 24.5% | 2.9% |
| Weapon | 13.3% | Nerf | 12.0% | 69.0% | 19.1% | 2.7% |
| Power Surge | 11.2% | Nerf | 15.6% | 59.6% | 24.8% | 2.2% |
| Storm Cloud | 10.8% | Nerf | 13.4% | 54.4% | 32.3% | 2.1% |
| Vitality | 9.2% | Buff | 42.5% | 39.8% | 17.7% | 1.8% |
Combined priority multiplies Stage 1 by Stage 2 to help sort the watchlist. It is not a calibrated probability that the named mechanic will change.
Validation and Data Readiness
Every stage uses older patches for training and newer patches for testing. The current patch calendar contains 138 update dates through 2026-06-12.
| Stage | Test rows | Balanced accuracy | Macro F1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stage 1 - hero changedWhether Seven receives any balance change. | 28 | 50.0% | 0.472 |
| Stage 2 - mechanic selectedWhich mechanic family is selected if Seven changes. | 196 | 50.0% | 0.486 |
| Stage 3 - conditional directionBuff, nerf, or mixed/rework after a mechanic is selected. | 3 | 0.0% | 0.000 |
Performance feature gate: withheld. Historical pre-patch win-rate coverage is 0.0%; the required coverage is 80.0%. Performance features are withheld because missingness is too sparse or too strongly associated with whether Seven changed.
The weekly collector now stores all hero performance, base stats, and ability properties without overwriting prior snapshots. Once enough unchanged and changed patches have comparable coverage, performance and ability-strength features can enter training without leaking the answer.
Seven Patch Changes
30 Seven patch-change rows are included from the recent patch window.
| Patch | Predictor | Direction | Before | After | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-12 | power_surge_t3ability:power_surge | Nerf | +12s Duration | +10s | Power Surge T3 reduced from +12s Duration to +10s |
| 2026-06-12 | storm_cloudability:storm_cloud | Rework | Storm Cloud now hits breakables | ||
| 2026-06-12 | bullet_damage_growthweapon | Nerf | 0.337 | 0 | Bullet damage growth reduced from 0.337 to 0.24 |
| 2026-05-22 | crit_reductionvitality | Buff | 35% | 55% | Crit reduction increased from 35% to 55% |
| 2026-05-22 | bullet_damage_growthweapon | Nerf | 0.374 | 0 | Bullet damage growth reduced from 0.374 to 0.337 |
| 2026-03-06 | lightning_ballability:lightning_ball | Rework | Lightning Ball fixed now doing damage if another ball was already hitting a target | ||
| 2026-03-06 | lightning_ball_charge_timeability:lightning_ball | Nerf | 8s | 7s | Lightning Ball charge time reduced from 8s to 7s |
| 2026-03-06 | lightning_ball_slows_down_less_vs_non_heroes_previously_was_2m_s_for_allability:lightning_ball | Rework | Lightning Ball slows down less vs non-heroes (previously was 2m/s for all, now 3.5m/s for non-heroes) | ||
| 2026-03-06 | lightning_ball_t2ability:lightning_ball | Buff | Lightning Ball T2 now also increases lifetime by 1s | ||
| 2026-03-06 | power_surge_cooldownability:power_surge | Buff | 48s | 50s | Power Surge cooldown increased from 48s to 50s |
| 2026-03-06 | power_surge_durationability:power_surge | Nerf | Power Surge duration no longer scales with spirit power | ||
| 2026-03-06 | power_surge_max_jumpsability:power_surge | Buff | 3 | 4 | Power Surge max jumps increased from 3 to 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | power_surge_t1ability:power_surge | Buff | -15s | -18s | Power Surge T1 increased from -15s to -18s |
| 2026-03-06 | power_surge_t2ability:power_surge | Buff | "-10% Spirit Resist for 6s" | "+3m Move Speed, +8 Damage and increased Spirit Scaling (+0 | Power Surge T2 changed from "-10% Spirit Resist for 6s" to "+3m Move Speed, +8 Damage and increased Spirit Scaling (+0.23)" |
| 2026-03-06 | power_surge_t3ability:power_surge | Rework | "+11 Shock Damage, scaling and +3 max jumps" | "-15% Spirit Resist for 8s and +12s Duration" | Power Surge T3 changed from "+11 Shock Damage, scaling and +3 max jumps" to "-15% Spirit Resist for 8s and +12s Duration" |
| 2026-03-06 | static_charge_cast_rangeability:static_charge | Nerf | 16m | 15m | Static Charge cast range reduced from 16m to 15m |
| 2026-03-06 | static_charge_cast_rangeability:static_charge | Nerf | Static Charge cast range no longer increases with spirit power | ||
| 2026-03-06 | static_charge_damageability:static_charge | Nerf | 38 | 35 | Static Charge damage reduced from 38 to 35 |
| 2026-03-06 | static_charge_t1ability:static_charge | Buff | -19s Cooldown | -20s | Static Charge T1 increased from -19s Cooldown to -20s |
| 2026-03-06 | static_charge_t2ability:static_charge | Buff | Static Charge T2 now also increases cast range by +5m | ||
| 2026-03-06 | static_charge_t3ability:static_charge | Buff | Static Charge T3 now also increases damage by +160 | ||
| 2026-03-06 | storm_cloud_allows_movement_in_the_base_ability_1_5mability:storm_cloud | Rework | Storm Cloud allows movement in the base ability (1.5m) | ||
| 2026-03-06 | storm_cloud_bullet_resistanceability:storm_cloud | Nerf | 20% | 0% | Storm Cloud bullet resistance reduced from 20% to 0% |
| 2026-03-06 | storm_cloud_t1_bullet_resistability:storm_cloud | Buff | 35% | 55% | Storm Cloud T1 bullet resist increased from 35% to 55% |
| 2026-03-06 | storm_cloud_t3_increases_move_speed_by_3m_was_3_8m_beforeability:storm_cloud | Rework | Storm Cloud T3 increases move speed by +3m (was +3.8m before) | ||
| 2026-03-06 | storm_cloud_t3_increases_speed_from_3m_to_4mability:storm_cloud | Rework | +3m | +4m | Storm Cloud T3 increases speed from +3m to +4m |
| 2026-03-06 | move_speedspirit | Nerf | Move Speed no longer scales with spirit power | ||
| 2026-03-06 | sprint_speedvitality | Buff | 0.6m | 1 | Sprint speed increased from 0.6m to 1.8m |
| 2025-11-21 | lightning_ball_radiusability:lightning_ball | Buff | 3.5m | 4 | Lightning Ball radius increased from 3.5m to 4.25m |
| 2025-11-21 | crit_reductionvitality | Buff | 25% | 35% | Crit reduction increased from 25% to 35% |
Hero Balance Predictions
Seven buff/nerf prototype
Forecasts whether Seven is likely to change next patch, using recent patch history and the Seven predictor DuckDB.