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Prediction Model

Rem Buff/Nerf Watch

This page is the hero-side version of the item prediction screen. The target is whether a hero looks more likely to be buffed, nerfed, or left alone in a future patch. This first page is Rem-only so the predictors can be reviewed before expanding to every hero.

Best read: this is now a three-stage experiment. It first asks whether Rem is likely to change, then which broad mechanic would be selected, then the direction of that selected mechanic. Later stages are conditional and must not be read as standalone certainty.

Stage 1: Will Rem receive any balance change in the next patch?
Stage 2: If Rem changes, which mechanic family is most likely to be selected?
Stage 3: If that family is selected, does its patch direction look like buff, nerf, or mixed/rework?
Future learning: Weekly snapshots preserve hero stats and ability values over time. They are enabled as model features only after changed and unchanged patches both have adequate coverage.

Three-Stage Next-Patch Forecast

1

Will Rem change?

16.1%

Estimated chance of any Rem balance change. No-change estimate: 83.9%.

Disclaimer: Experimental. This is based on one hero's patch history and has not been proven accurate — Stage 1 and Stage 2 don't yet beat a simple "no change" guess on holdout data. Treat every number on this page as a rough signal, not a confirmed forecast.

Stages 2 and 3: target and direction if Rem changes

Mechanic	Selected if changed	Direction	Buff if selected	Nerf if selected	Mixed/rework if selected	Combined priority
Tag Along	4.1%	Mixed Or Rework	0.0%	46.7%	53.3%	0.7%
Pillow Toss	3.6%	Mixed Or Rework	0.0%	45.0%	55.0%	0.6%
Lil Helpers	3.3%	Mixed Or Rework	0.0%	41.0%	59.0%	0.5%
Spirit	1.8%	Mixed Or Rework	0.0%	46.6%	53.4%	0.3%
Naptime	1.5%	Mixed Or Rework	0.0%	41.4%	58.6%	0.2%
Vitality	1.3%	Mixed Or Rework	0.0%	46.6%	53.4%	0.2%
Weapon	1.2%	Mixed Or Rework	0.0%	46.6%	53.4%	0.2%

Combined priority multiplies Stage 1 by Stage 2 to help sort the watchlist. It is not a calibrated probability that the named mechanic will change.

Validation and Data Readiness

Every stage uses older patches for training and newer patches for testing. The current patch calendar contains 147 update dates through 2026-08-02.

Stage	Test rows	Balanced accuracy	Macro F1
Stage 1 - hero changedWhether Rem receives any balance change.	30	50.0%	0.464
Stage 2 - mechanic selectedWhich mechanic family is selected if Rem changes.	210	50.0%	0.489
Stage 3 - conditional directionBuff, nerf, or mixed/rework after a mechanic is selected.	2	50.0%	0.333

Performance feature gate: withheld. Historical pre-patch win-rate coverage is 6.1%; the required coverage is 80.0%. Performance features are withheld because missingness is too sparse or too strongly associated with whether Rem changed.

The weekly collector now stores all hero performance, base stats, and ability properties without overwriting prior snapshots. Once enough unchanged and changed patches have comparable coverage, performance and ability-strength features can enter training without leaking the answer.

Rem Patch Changes

30 Rem patch-change rows are included from the recent patch window.

Patch	Predictor	Direction	Before	After	Notes
2026-06-30	lil_helpers_spirit_resistability:lil_helpers	Nerf	15%	12%	Lil Helpers Spirit Resist reduced from 15% to 12%
2026-06-30	lil_helpers_t1ability:lil_helpers	Rework	"+1 Helper"	"+1 Helper and +1	Lil Helpers T1 changed from "+1 Helper" to "+1 Helper and +1.5m/s Move Speed"
2026-06-30	lil_helpers_t2ability:lil_helpers	Rework	"+8% Spirit Resist and +1.5m/s Move Speed"	"+1 Helper and +15% Trooper Damage and Resist"	Lil Helpers T2 changed from "+8% Spirit Resist and +1.5m/s Move Speed" to "+1 Helper and +15% Trooper Damage and Resist"
2026-06-30	lil_helpers_t3ability:lil_helpers	Rework	"+2 Helpers and +20% Trooper Damage and Resist"	"+1 Helper and +15% Spirit Resist"	Lil Helpers T3 changed from "+2 Helpers and +20% Trooper Damage and Resist" to "+1 Helper and +15% Spirit Resist"
2026-06-30	tag_along_healing_per_second_spirit_scalingability:tag_along	Nerf	0.66	0	Tag Along healing per second spirit scaling reduced from 0.66 to 0.4
2026-06-30	tag_along_t3_missing_health_spirit_scalingability:tag_along	Nerf	+0.02	+0	Tag Along T3 missing health spirit scaling reduced from +0.02 to +0.016
2026-05-22	naptimeability:naptime	Rework			Naptime now provides +30% damage reduction in the base ability (T3 still adds +50%)
2026-05-22	pillow_toss_charge_timeability:pillow_toss	Nerf	9s	8s	Pillow Toss charge time reduced from 9s to 8s
2026-05-22	pillow_toss_t3ability:pillow_toss	Buff	+90	+100 Damage	Pillow Toss T3 increased from +90 to +100 Damage
2026-05-22	reduced_lockout_period_after_ejecting_from_tag_along_from_1s_to_0_3sability:tag_along	Nerf	Tag Along from 1s	0	Reduced lockout period after ejecting from Tag Along from 1s to 0.3s
2026-05-22	tag_alongability:tag_along	Rework			Tag Along fixed specific abilities/items that could kill Rem while he's napping
2026-05-22	tag_alongability:tag_along	Rework			Tag Along now allows friendly auras to affect Rem
2026-05-22	tag_along_burst_healability:tag_along	Buff			Tag Along burst heal now also applies to secondary allies that you jump to
2026-05-22	tag_along_canability:tag_along	Rework			Tag Along can now be cast through veils
2026-05-22	tag_along_ejectability:tag_along	Nerf			Tag Along eject no longer briefly restricts movement abilities and input
2026-05-22	tag_along_eject_isability:tag_along	Nerf			Tag Along eject is no longer affected by debuff resistance and now launches upwards slightly more to prevent hitting the ground
2026-05-22	tag_along_heal_duration_isability:tag_along	Rework			Tag Along heal duration is now displayed on the hud as well as the healthbar icon
2026-05-22	tag_along_lingering_heal_durationability:tag_along	Nerf	3s	2s (values rebalanced to be the same overall heal just faster)	Tag Along lingering heal duration reduced from 3s to 2s (values rebalanced to be the same overall heal just faster)
2026-05-22	tag_along_t2_barrier_and_item_duration_range_effectivenessability:tag_along	Buff	25%	35%	Tag Along T2 Barrier and Item Duration/Range effectiveness increased from 25% to 35%
2026-05-22	tag_along_t3ability:tag_along	Buff	0.03	0	Tag Along T3 now also increases Missing Health Heal from 0.03 to 0.05 and Regen Per Second from 0.66 to 1.0
2026-05-22	tag_along_time_to_fly_to_your_ally_isability:tag_along	Rework			Tag Along time to fly to your ally is now 50% faster
2026-04-30	fixed_a_bug_with_naptime_that_allowed_you_to_attack_while_casting_itability:naptime	Rework			Fixed a bug with Naptime that allowed you to attack while casting it
2026-04-30	pillow_toss_recharge_timerability:pillow_toss	Nerf	10s	9s	Pillow Toss recharge timer reduced from 10s to 9s
2026-03-06	lil_helpers_trooper_base_healingability:lil_helpers	Nerf	10/s	8/s	Lil Helpers trooper base healing changed from 10/s to 8/s. The delay between heals has been reduced so the frequency of healing is more constant. (overall reduction)
2026-03-06	lil_helpers_trooper_healing_spirit_scalingability:lil_helpers	Buff	0.125	0	Lil Helpers trooper healing spirit scaling increased from 0.125 to 0.14
2026-03-06	naptime_radiusability:naptime	Nerf	20m	17	Naptime radius decreased from 20m to 17.0m
2026-03-06	naptime_sleep_durationability:naptime	Nerf	4.25s	4s	Naptime sleep duration decreased from 4.25s to 4s
2026-03-06	naptime_sleep_move_speedability:naptime	Nerf	2m/s	1	Naptime sleep move speed reduced from 2m/s to 1.5m/s
2026-03-06	naptime_t2ability:naptime	Rework	"unstoppable and -35% Damage resist while channeling"	"+0	Naptime T2 changed from "unstoppable and -35% Damage resist while channeling" to "+0.5s Sleep Duration and +3m Radius"
2026-03-06	naptime_t3ability:naptime	Buff			Naptime T3 now also grants +50% damage resist while channeling