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Prediction Model

Rat King Buff/Nerf Watch

This page is the hero-side version of the item prediction screen. The target is whether a hero looks more likely to be buffed, nerfed, or left alone in a future patch. This first page is Rat King-only so the predictors can be reviewed before expanding to every hero.

Best read: this is now a three-stage experiment. It first asks whether Rat King is likely to change, then which broad mechanic would be selected, then the direction of that selected mechanic. Later stages are conditional and must not be read as standalone certainty.

Stage 1: Will Rat King receive any balance change in the next patch?
Stage 2: If Rat King changes, which mechanic family is most likely to be selected?
Stage 3: If that family is selected, does its patch direction look like buff, nerf, or mixed/rework?
Future learning: Weekly snapshots preserve hero stats and ability values over time. They are enabled as model features only after changed and unchanged patches both have adequate coverage.

Three-Stage Next-Patch Forecast

1

Will Rat King change?

73.9%

Estimated chance of any Rat King balance change. No-change estimate: 26.1%.

Disclaimer: Experimental. This is based on one hero's patch history and has not been proven accurate — Stage 1 and Stage 2 don't yet beat a simple "no change" guess on holdout data. Treat every number on this page as a rough signal, not a confirmed forecast.

Stages 2 and 3: target and direction if Rat King changes

Mechanic	Selected if changed	Direction	Buff if selected	Nerf if selected	Mixed/rework if selected	Combined priority
Rule Ratannia	52.4%	Buff	59.7%	24.0%	16.3%	38.7%
Scrap Grenade	51.6%	Buff	56.9%	28.2%	14.9%	38.2%
Weapon	49.5%	Buff	59.4%	29.6%	11.0%	36.6%
Rat Swarm	23.9%	Buff	43.3%	32.7%	23.9%	17.6%
Vitality	9.5%	Nerf	37.0%	38.7%	24.3%	7.1%
Spirit	9.3%	Nerf	37.0%	38.7%	24.3%	6.9%
Royal Pestments	9.2%	Nerf	37.0%	38.7%	24.3%	6.8%

Combined priority multiplies Stage 1 by Stage 2 to help sort the watchlist. It is not a calibrated probability that the named mechanic will change.

Validation and Data Readiness

Every stage uses older patches for training and newer patches for testing. The current patch calendar contains 167 update dates through 2026-11-05.

Stage	Test rows	Balanced accuracy	Macro F1
Stage 1 - hero changedWhether Rat King receives any balance change.	34	50.0%	0.477
Stage 2 - mechanic selectedWhich mechanic family is selected if Rat King changes.	238	50.0%	0.490
Stage 3 - conditional directionBuff, nerf, or mixed/rework after a mechanic is selected.	3	0.0%	0.000

Performance feature gate: withheld. Historical pre-patch win-rate coverage is 5.4%; the required coverage is 80.0%. Performance features are withheld because missingness is too sparse or too strongly associated with whether Rat King changed.

The weekly collector now stores all hero performance, base stats, and ability properties without overwriting prior snapshots. Once enough unchanged and changed patches have comparable coverage, performance and ability-strength features can enter training without leaking the answer.

Rat King Patch Changes

35 Rat King patch-change rows are included from the recent patch window.

Patch	Predictor	Direction	Before	After	Notes
2026-11-05	rule_ratannia_move_speedability:rule_ratannia	Buff	+3m	+4m	Rule, Ratannia! - Move Speed increased from +3m to +4m
2026-11-05	rule_ratannia_t1ability:rule_ratannia	Buff			Rule, Ratannia! - T1 now also reduces cooldown by -25s
2026-11-05	scrap_grenade_meleeing_the_grenade_fuse_time_extensionability:scrap_grenade	Nerf	0.4s	0	Scrap Grenade - Meleeing the grenade fuse time extension reduced from 0.4s to 0.25s
2026-11-05	ammoweapon	Buff	24	26	Ammo increased from 24 to 26
2026-11-05	bullet_damageweapon	Buff	5.7	5	Bullet damage increased from 5.7 to 5.8
2026-10-30	rule_ratanniaability:rule_ratannia	Rework			Rule, Ratannia! - Now goes on cooldown when stunned/slept before placing it. In that case, the flag is placed in that position but without any of the initial impact effects (damage/knockup)
2026-10-30	rule_ratannia_cooldownability:rule_ratannia	Buff	160s	180s	Rule, Ratannia! - Cooldown increased from 160s to 180s
2026-10-30	rule_ratannia_durationability:rule_ratannia	Nerf	12s	9s	Rule, Ratannia! - Duration reduced from 12s to 9s
2026-10-30	rule_ratannia_knockup_durationability:rule_ratannia	Nerf			Rule, Ratannia! - Knockup duration reduced by 50%
2026-10-30	rule_ratannia_radiusability:rule_ratannia	Nerf	20m	16m	Rule, Ratannia! - Radius reduced from 20m to 16m
2026-10-30	rule_ratannia_t2_radiusability:rule_ratannia	Nerf	+8m	+6m	Rule, Ratannia! - T2 Radius reduced from +8m to +6m
2026-10-30	scrap_grenade_damageability:scrap_grenade	Nerf	70	60	Scrap Grenade - Damage reduced from 70 to 60
2026-10-30	scrap_grenade_fuse_timersability:scrap_grenade	Buff	0.8s	0	Scrap Grenade - Fuse timers increased by 0.1s (first bounce from 0.8s to 0.9s, later bounces from 0.7s to 0.8s, T3 final explosion from 1.5s to 1.6s)
2026-10-30	scrap_grenade_large_explosion_radiusability:scrap_grenade	Nerf	14m	10m	Scrap Grenade - Large explosion radius reduced from 14m to 10m
2026-10-30	scrap_grenade_meleeing_the_grenadeability:scrap_grenade	Rework			Scrap Grenade - Meleeing the grenade now gives it at least 0.4s before it explodes (if less than 0.4s was left on its fuse, the fuse is extended to 0.4s)
2026-10-30	scrap_grenade_radiusability:scrap_grenade	Nerf	8m	6m	Scrap Grenade - Radius reduced from 8m to 6m
2026-10-30	scrap_grenade_t2_damageability:scrap_grenade	Nerf	+70	+60	Scrap Grenade - T2 damage reduced from +70 to +60
2026-10-30	scrap_grenade_t3_damageability:scrap_grenade	Nerf	300	275	Scrap Grenade - T3 damage reduced from 300 to 275
2026-10-30	base_bullet_damageweapon	Nerf			Base bullet damage reduced by 5%
2026-10-30	bullet_damage_growthweapon	Nerf			Bullet damage growth reduced by 20%
2026-10-05	rat_swarm_base_cooldownability:rat_swarm	Nerf	28s	24s	Rat Swarm - Base Cooldown reduced from 28s to 24s
2026-10-05	rule_ratanniaability:rule_ratannia	Rework			Rule, Ratannia! - Now falls faster while charging
2026-10-05	rule_ratannia_bonus_move_speedability:rule_ratannia	Nerf			Rule, Ratannia! - Bonus Move speed no longer scales with Spirit
2026-10-05	rule_ratannia_charge_durationability:rule_ratannia	Nerf	12s	10s	Rule, Ratannia! - Charge Duration reduced from 12s to 10s
2026-10-05	rule_ratannia_cooldownability:rule_ratannia	Buff	130	160	Rule, Ratannia! - Cooldown increased from 130 to 160
2026-10-05	rule_ratannia_damage_reductionability:rule_ratannia	Nerf	20%	15%	Rule, Ratannia! - Damage Reduction reduced from 20% to 15%
2026-10-05	rule_ratannia_radiusability:rule_ratannia	Nerf	24m	20m	Rule, Ratannia! - Radius reduced from 24m to 20m
2026-10-05	rule_ratannia_t1ability:rule_ratannia	Nerf	110s	160s)	Rule, Ratannia! - T1 No longer gives -20s cooldown (Total cooldown from 110s to 160s)
2026-10-05	rule_ratannia_t1_1m_s_move_speed_to_2m_s_move_speedability:rule_ratannia	Rework			Rule, Ratannia! - T1 +1m/s Move Speed to +2m/s Move Speed
2026-10-05	rule_ratannia_t2ability:rule_ratannia	Nerf	20s	10s)	Rule, Ratannia! - T2 No longer grants +8s Charge Duration (Total charge duration from 20s to 10s)
2026-10-05	rule_ratannia_t2_flag_durationability:rule_ratannia	Nerf	+8s	+5s	Rule, Ratannia! - T2 Flag Duration reduced from +8s to +5s
2026-10-05	rule_ratannia_t3_damage_reductionability:rule_ratannia	Nerf	15%	10% (Total Damage Reduction from 35% to 25%)	Rule, Ratannia! - T3 Damage Reduction reduced from 15% to 10% (Total Damage Reduction from 35% to 25%)
2026-10-05	scrap_grenadeability:scrap_grenade	Rework			Scrap Grenade - Fixed some bugs with bouncing targeting
2026-10-05	scrap_grenade_damageability:scrap_grenade	Buff	65	70	Scrap Grenade - Damage increased from 65 to 70
2026-10-05	scrap_grenade_t2_damageability:scrap_grenade	Buff	65	70	Scrap Grenade - T2 Damage increased from 65 to 70