Deadlock Hero Balance Predictions
Pocket buff/nerf predictor prototype
Generated from the Pocket predictor DuckDB, recent patch history, and a three-stage prediction model.
Prediction Model
Pocket Buff/Nerf Watch
This page is the hero-side version of the item prediction screen. The target is whether a hero looks more likely to be buffed, nerfed, or left alone in a future patch. This first page is Pocket-only so the predictors can be reviewed before expanding to every hero.
Best read: this is now a three-stage experiment. It first asks whether Pocket is likely to change, then which broad mechanic would be selected, then the direction of that selected mechanic. Later stages are conditional and must not be read as standalone certainty.
- Stage 1
- Will Pocket receive any balance change in the next patch?
- Stage 2
- If Pocket changes, which mechanic family is most likely to be selected?
- Stage 3
- If that family is selected, does its patch direction look like buff, nerf, or mixed/rework?
- Future learning
- Weekly snapshots preserve hero stats and ability values over time. They are enabled as model features only after changed and unchanged patches both have adequate coverage.
Three-Stage Next-Patch Forecast
1
Will Pocket change?
15.0%
Estimated chance of any Pocket balance change. No-change estimate: 85.0%.
Disclaimer: Experimental. This is based on one hero's patch history and has not been proven accurate — Stage 1 and Stage 2 don't yet beat a simple "no change" guess on holdout data. Treat every number on this page as a rough signal, not a confirmed forecast.
Stages 2 and 3: target and direction if Pocket changes
| Mechanic | Selected if changed | Direction | Buff if selected | Nerf if selected | Mixed/rework if selected | Combined priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spirit | 15.8% | Nerf | 21.0% | 49.4% | 29.7% | 2.4% |
| Flying Cloak | 10.0% | Nerf | 17.4% | 67.0% | 15.6% | 1.5% |
| Affliction | 9.8% | Nerf | 20.7% | 59.7% | 19.6% | 1.5% |
| Weapon | 7.3% | Nerf | 26.7% | 52.1% | 21.3% | 1.1% |
| Enchanter S Satchel | 6.6% | Nerf | 36.9% | 46.9% | 16.2% | 1.0% |
| Barrage | 5.3% | Nerf | 22.4% | 56.9% | 20.8% | 0.8% |
| Vitality | 4.9% | Nerf | 22.4% | 51.0% | 26.6% | 0.7% |
Combined priority multiplies Stage 1 by Stage 2 to help sort the watchlist. It is not a calibrated probability that the named mechanic will change.
Validation and Data Readiness
Every stage uses older patches for training and newer patches for testing. The current patch calendar contains 138 update dates through 2026-06-12.
| Stage | Test rows | Balanced accuracy | Macro F1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stage 1 - hero changedWhether Pocket receives any balance change. | 28 | 50.0% | 0.451 |
| Stage 2 - mechanic selectedWhich mechanic family is selected if Pocket changes. | 196 | 50.0% | 0.483 |
| Stage 3 - conditional directionBuff, nerf, or mixed/rework after a mechanic is selected. | 5 | 0.0% | 0.000 |
Performance feature gate: withheld. Historical pre-patch win-rate coverage is 0.0%; the required coverage is 80.0%. Performance features are withheld because missingness is too sparse or too strongly associated with whether Pocket changed.
The weekly collector now stores all hero performance, base stats, and ability properties without overwriting prior snapshots. Once enough unchanged and changed patches have comparable coverage, performance and ability-strength features can enter training without leaking the answer.
Pocket Patch Changes
43 Pocket patch-change rows are included from the recent patch window.
| Patch | Predictor | Direction | Before | After | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-12 | afflictionability:affliction | Rework | Affliction now does half damage on objectives | ||
| 2026-06-12 | flying_cloak_t3ability:flying_cloak | Nerf | -13s Cooldown | -12s | Flying Cloak T3 reduced from -13s Cooldown to -12s |
| 2026-06-12 | bullet_damage_growthweapon | Nerf | +0.2 | +0 | Bullet damage growth reduced from +0.2 to +0.16 |
| 2026-05-31 | affliction_t3ability:affliction | Nerf | +18 DPS | +14 | Affliction T3 reduced from +18 DPS to +14 |
| 2026-05-31 | flying_cloak_t3ability:flying_cloak | Nerf | -14s Cooldown | -13s | Flying Cloak T3 reduced from -14s Cooldown to -13s |
| 2026-05-22 | affliction_cooldownability:affliction | Buff | 140s | 150s | Affliction cooldown increased from 140s to 150s |
| 2026-05-22 | flying_cloak_t2_weapon_damage_durationability:flying_cloak | Nerf | 8s | 6s | Flying Cloak T2 weapon damage duration reduced from 8s to 6s |
| 2026-04-30 | affliction_cooldownability:affliction | Nerf | 150s | 140s | Affliction cooldown reduced from 150s to 140s |
| 2026-04-30 | enchanter_s_satchel_spirit_scalingability:enchanter_s_satchel | Buff | 0.9 | 1 | Enchanter's Satchel spirit scaling increased from 0.9 to 1.1 |
| 2026-03-06 | afflictionability:affliction | Nerf | Affliction no longer applies 12% Current Health Damage | ||
| 2026-03-06 | affliction_cooldownability:affliction | Buff | 140s | 150s | Affliction cooldown increased from 140s to 150s |
| 2026-03-06 | affliction_dpsability:affliction | Buff | 28 | 32 | Affliction DPS increased from 28 to 32 |
| 2026-03-06 | affliction_dpsability:affliction | Buff | 32+0.2 | 34+0 | Affliction DPS increased from 32+0.2 to 34+0.22 |
| 2026-03-06 | affliction_durationability:affliction | Nerf | 12s | 11s (overall total damage is reduced slightly) | Affliction duration reduced from 12s to 11s (overall total damage is reduced slightly) |
| 2026-03-06 | affliction_spirit_scalingability:affliction | Buff | 0.17 | 0 | Affliction spirit scaling increased from 0.17 to 0.2 |
| 2026-03-06 | affliction_t1ability:affliction | Buff | -25s Cooldown | -40s Cooldown | Affliction T1 increased from -25s Cooldown to -40s Cooldown |
| 2026-03-06 | affliction_t2ability:affliction | Buff | Affliction T2 now also increases radius by 4m | ||
| 2026-03-06 | affliction_t2ability:affliction | Nerf | Affliction T2 no longer reduces healing by 40% | ||
| 2026-03-06 | affliction_t2_durationability:affliction | Nerf | +4s | +3s | Affliction T2 duration reduced from +4s to +3s |
| 2026-03-06 | affliction_t3ability:affliction | Rework | Affliction T3 now prevents all healing on targets | ||
| 2026-03-06 | affliction_t3ability:affliction | Nerf | Affliction T3 no longer increases radius by 6m | ||
| 2026-03-06 | affliction_t3_dpsability:affliction | Buff | 16+0.1 | 18+0 | Affliction T3 DPS increased from 16+0.1 to 18+0.11 |
| 2026-03-06 | affliction_t3_increases_spirit_scaling_by_0_1ability:affliction | Rework | Affliction T3 increases spirit scaling by +0.1 | ||
| 2026-03-06 | barrageability:barrage | Rework | Barrage now lets you use Flying Cloak during the ability | ||
| 2026-03-06 | barrageability:barrage | Rework | Barrage now lets you use stamina during the ability | ||
| 2026-03-06 | barrage_projectile_speedability:barrage | Buff | Barrage projectile speed increased by 15% | ||
| 2026-03-06 | barrage_t1ability:barrage | Buff | +12.6 Damage Per Projectile | +16 | Barrage T1 increased from +12.6 Damage Per Projectile to +16 |
| 2026-03-06 | barrage_t2_cooldownability:barrage | Buff | -14s | -16s | Barrage T2 cooldown increased from -14s to -16s |
| 2026-03-06 | barrage_t3ability:barrage | Buff | +2m Radius | +3m | Barrage T3 increased from +2m Radius to +3m |
| 2026-03-06 | enchanter_s_satchel_spirit_scalingability:enchanter_s_satchel | Buff | 0.61 | 0 | Enchanter's Satchel spirit scaling increased from 0.61 to 0.9 |
| 2026-03-06 | enchanter_s_satchel_t3ability:enchanter_s_satchel | Buff | Enchanter's Satchel T3 now also increases radius by 4m | ||
| 2026-03-06 | enchanter_s_satchel_t3ability:enchanter_s_satchel | Buff | Enchanter's Satchel T3 now also reduces movement speed by 40% | ||
| 2026-03-06 | enchanter_s_satchel_t3_escape_durationability:enchanter_s_satchel | Buff | +0.5s | +1 | Enchanter's Satchel T3 Escape duration increased from +0.5s to +1.5s |
| 2026-03-06 | enchanter_s_satchel_t3_fire_rate_slowability:enchanter_s_satchel | Buff | 35% | 40% | Enchanter's Satchel T3 Fire Rate slow increased from 35% to 40% |
| 2026-03-06 | flying_cloak_cooldownability:flying_cloak | Nerf | 32s | 26s | Flying Cloak cooldown reduced from 32s to 26s |
| 2026-03-06 | flying_cloak_damageability:flying_cloak | Nerf | 70 | 60 | Flying Cloak damage reduced from 70 to 60 |
| 2026-03-06 | flying_cloak_durationability:flying_cloak | Buff | 3.4s | 3 | Flying Cloak duration increased from 3.4s to 3.8s (travels slower, same total distance) |
| 2026-03-06 | flying_cloak_t1ability:flying_cloak | Rework | "-14s Cooldown" | "+70 Damage" | Flying Cloak T1 changed from "-14s Cooldown" to "+70 Damage" |
| 2026-03-06 | flying_cloak_t2ability:flying_cloak | Rework | "+76 Damage" | "+5 Weapon Damage upon cast for 8s" | Flying Cloak T2 changed from "+76 Damage" to "+5 Weapon Damage upon cast for 8s" |
| 2026-03-06 | flying_cloak_t3ability:flying_cloak | Rework | "+7 Weapon Damage after teleporting for 10s" | "+1 | Flying Cloak T3 changed from "+7 Weapon Damage after teleporting for 10s" to "+1.6s Travel Time and -14s Cooldown" |
| 2025-11-21 | flying_cloak_damageability:flying_cloak | Nerf | 85 | 70 | Flying Cloak damage reduced from 85 to 70 |
| 2025-11-21 | flying_cloak_t2ability:flying_cloak | Buff | +75 | +85 | Flying Cloak T2 increased from +75 to +85 |
| 2025-11-21 | base_regenvitality | Nerf | 2 | 1 | Base regen reduced from 2 to 1 |
Hero Balance Predictions
Pocket buff/nerf prototype
Forecasts whether Pocket is likely to change next patch, using recent patch history and the Pocket predictor DuckDB.