This is the 2026-06-19 model snapshot for Vegas.
Each hero below has its own review box again. Use the loss patterns as replay topics first, then compare against the stronger pattern before changing the build.
Lash - Spirit path issue: review whether Spirit buying reached a real power spike or became scattered.
Graves - Spirit path issue: review whether Spirit buying reached a real power spike or became scattered.
Drifter - Survivability/timing issue: Vitality timing appears tied to the losing pattern.
Sinclair - Build structure issue: too many tier-1 items may mean the player stayed in cheap items instead of upgrading.
Holliday - Spirit path issue: review whether Spirit buying reached a real power spike or became scattered.
Pocket - Spirit path issue: review whether Spirit buying reached a real power spike or became scattered.
Abrams - Item timing/build path issue: review this pattern in replays before treating it as causal.
Haze - Spirit path issue: review whether Spirit buying reached a real power spike or became scattered.
No clear item-timing split showed up for these heroes yet, so review item timing and replay context first.
Apollo, Bebop, Grey Talon
These heroes have a readable item-timing pattern to compare in replays.
Review note: Spirit path issue: review whether Spirit buying reached a real power spike or became scattered.
| Tree | Branch | Rule | Matches | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lash replay quality | Review | Tier 2 (1,600 Souls) item count by 10:00 was 2 or less | 28 | 33% |
| Lash replay quality | Good game | Tier 2 (1,600 Souls) item count by 10:00 was more than 2 | 22 | 73% |
| Win / loss | Loss | Spirit item count by 20:00 was 7 or less | 29 | 38% |
| Win / loss | Better | Spirit item count by 20:00 was more than 7 | 21 | 71% |
| Item | Win rate | # | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| 82% | 16 | 27:29 | |
| 73% | 11 | 32:26 | |
| 72% | 26 | 22:48 | |
| 70% | 17 | 31:14 | |
| 65% | 28 | 6:34 |
| Item | Win rate | # | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37% | 11 | 1:07 | |
| 42% | 19 | 11:29 | |
| 48% | 21 | 4:42 | |
| 48% | 27 | 6:57 | |
| 51% | 16 | 12:45 |
The graph image was not preserved for this archived snapshot.
Review note: Spirit path issue: review whether Spirit buying reached a real power spike or became scattered.
| Tree | Branch | Rule | Matches | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Graves replay quality | Review | Item total spend by 20:00 was at most 20,640 | 22 | 39% |
| Graves replay quality | Good game | Item total spend by 20:00 was more than 20,640 | 28 | 61% |
| Win / loss | Loss | 30 | 36% | |
| Win / loss | Better | 20 | 60% |
| Item | Win rate | # | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| 63% | 21 | 28:02 | |
| 57% | 23 | 29:12 | |
| 56% | 23 | 22:14 | |
| 54% | 23 | 25:32 | |
| 50% | 21 | 22:24 |
| Item | Win rate | # | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19% | 14 | 6:43 | |
| 30% | 12 | 12:02 | |
| 34% | 28 | 7:17 | |
| 35% | 28 | 11:23 | |
| 36% | 15 | 12:46 |
The graph image was not preserved for this archived snapshot.
Review note: Survivability/timing issue: Vitality timing appears tied to the losing pattern.
| Tree | Branch | Rule | Matches | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drifter replay quality | Review | 26 | 40% | |
| Drifter replay quality | Good game | 24 | 68% | |
| Win / loss | Loss | 28 | 32% | |
| Win / loss | Better | 22 | 73% |
| Item | Win rate | # | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| 92% | 12 | 24:31 | |
| 73% | 22 | 5:41 | |
| 72% | 12 | 1:04 | |
| 68% | 20 | 27:03 | |
| 66% | 19 | 9:09 |
| Item | Win rate | # | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32% | 16 | 9:18 | |
| 35% | 17 | 13:56 | |
| 38% | 15 | 7:57 | |
| 45% | 22 | 14:58 | |
| 45% | 39 | 5:06 |
The graph image was not preserved for this archived snapshot.
Review note: Build structure issue: too many tier-1 items may mean the player stayed in cheap items instead of upgrading.
| Tree | Branch | Rule | Matches | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sinclair replay quality | Good game | Tier 1 (800 Souls) item count by 15:00 was 3 or less | 32 | 68% |
| Sinclair replay quality | Review | Tier 1 (800 Souls) item count by 15:00 was more than 3 | 18 | 22% |
| Win / loss | Better | Tier 1 (800 Souls) item count by 15:00 was 3 or less | 32 | 60% |
| Win / loss | Loss | Tier 1 (800 Souls) item count by 15:00 was more than 3 | 18 | 19% |
| Item | Win rate | # | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60% | 17 | 31:28 | |
| 54% | 17 | 26:44 | |
| 53% | 13 | 1:02 | |
| 52% | 12 | 28:10 | |
| 52% | 32 | 24:05 |
| Item | Win rate | # | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33% | 20 | 16:13 | |
| 37% | 37 | 11:17 | |
| 41% | 16 | 8:50 | |
| 44% | 38 | 1:14 | |
| 44% | 14 | 24:46 |
The graph image was not preserved for this archived snapshot.
Review note: Spirit path issue: review whether Spirit buying reached a real power spike or became scattered.
| Tree | Branch | Rule | Matches | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holliday replay quality | Review | Spirit item count by 20:00 was 5 or less | 24 | 40% |
| Holliday replay quality | Good game | Spirit item count by 20:00 was more than 5 | 19 | 64% |
| Win / loss | Loss | 23 | 22% | |
| Win / loss | Loss | 20 | 49% |
| Item | Win rate | # | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49% | 28 | 24:47 | |
| 44% | 25 | 17:20 | |
| 42% | 23 | 27:48 | |
| 41% | 17 | 19:52 | |
| 40% | 35 | 23:21 |
| Item | Win rate | # | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33% | 28 | 2:41 | |
| 35% | 42 | 2:21 | |
| 35% | 42 | 4:34 | |
| 35% | 42 | 7:41 | |
| 35% | 41 | 12:51 |
The graph image was not preserved for this archived snapshot.
Review note: Spirit path issue: review whether Spirit buying reached a real power spike or became scattered.
| Tree | Branch | Rule | Matches | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pocket replay quality | Review | Weapon item spend by 15:00 was at most 4,480 | 20 | 15% |
| Pocket replay quality | Good game | Weapon item spend by 15:00 was more than 4,480 | 30 | 69% |
| Win / loss | Loss | Tier 3 (3,200 Souls) item count by 20:00 was 3 or less | 25 | 29% |
| Win / loss | Better | Tier 3 (3,200 Souls) item count by 20:00 was more than 3 | 25 | 69% |
| Item | Win rate | # | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59% | 19 | 4:44 | |
| 59% | 28 | 5:34 | |
| 57% | 31 | 9:45 | |
| 55% | 39 | 7:32 | |
| 55% | 31 | 24:02 |
| Item | Win rate | # | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36% | 10 | 1:38 | |
| 37% | 26 | 13:12 | |
| 40% | 28 | 17:19 | |
| 44% | 39 | 8:13 | |
| 46% | 40 | 23:48 |
The graph image was not preserved for this archived snapshot.
Review note: Item timing/build path issue: review this pattern in replays before treating it as causal.
| Tree | Branch | Rule | Matches | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abrams replay quality | Review | 18 | 45% | |
| Abrams replay quality | Good game | 18 | 59% | |
| Win / loss | Better | Tier 2 (1,600 Souls) item count by 15:00 was 4 or less | 18 | 69% |
| Win / loss | Loss | Tier 2 (1,600 Souls) item count by 15:00 was more than 4 | 18 | 30% |
| Item | Win rate | # | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| 64% | 18 | 17:13 | |
| 63% | 24 | 18:54 | |
| 54% | 12 | 5:49 | |
| 52% | 12 | 20:24 | |
| 50% | 19 | 1:11 |
| Item | Win rate | # | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33% | 9 | 12:03 | |
| 41% | 28 | 1:23 | |
| 42% | 17 | 3:57 | |
| 42% | 23 | 11:27 | |
| 43% | 14 | 11:46 |
The graph image was not preserved for this archived snapshot.
Review note: Spirit path issue: review whether Spirit buying reached a real power spike or became scattered.
| Tree | Branch | Rule | Matches | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haze replay quality | Review | 23 | 27% | |
| Haze replay quality | Good game | 21 | 71% | |
| Win / loss | Loss | Spirit item spend by 15:00 was at most 1,920 | 18 | 28% |
| Win / loss | Better | Spirit item spend by 15:00 was more than 1,920 | 26 | 67% |
| Item | Win rate | # | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| 64% | 21 | 9:16 | |
| 62% | 35 | 4:07 | |
| 58% | 31 | 11:38 | |
| 55% | 36 | 19:16 | |
| 53% | 34 | 15:39 |
| Item | Win rate | # | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43% | 17 | 23:46 | |
| 45% | 26 | 11:53 | |
| 46% | 32 | 12:19 | |
| 50% | 33 | 10:54 | |
| 51% | 30 | 2:38 |
The graph image was not preserved for this archived snapshot.
Review note: Review this hero in replays before treating any pattern as causal.
| Tree | Branch | Rule | Matches | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viscous replay quality | Review | 19 | 35% | |
| Viscous replay quality | Good game | 23 | 64% | |
| Win / loss | Better | Tier 1 (800 Souls) item count by 15:00 was 4 or less | 24 | 55% |
| Win / loss | Better | Tier 1 (800 Souls) item count by 15:00 was more than 4 | 18 | 89% |
| Item | Win rate | # | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| 87% | 22 | 25:43 | |
| 84% | 23 | 30:24 | |
| 81% | 21 | 25:21 | |
| 81% | 25 | 11:27 | |
| 80% | 24 | 27:47 |
| Item | Win rate | # | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60% | 12 | 19:54 | |
| 65% | 28 | 8:37 | |
| 67% | 30 | 10:20 | |
| 68% | 12 | 1:04 | |
| 69% | 28 | 3:16 |
The graph image was not preserved for this archived snapshot.
These heroes did not produce a clean item-timing split, so use their item lists as softer replay notes.
Review note: Review this hero in replays before treating any pattern as causal.
Pattern note: No clear item-timing split showed up for this hero, so this box leans on item timing instead of a main pattern.
| Item | Win rate | # | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62% | 19 | 18:18 | |
| 60% | 24 | 26:44 | |
| 59% | 33 | 10:29 | |
| 58% | 32 | 6:40 | |
| 57% | 23 | 18:11 |
| Item | Win rate | # | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| 48% | 15 | 18:52 | |
| 48% | 23 | 4:00 | |
| 49% | 14 | 15:01 | |
| 49% | 29 | 5:16 | |
| 52% | 30 | 17:07 |
The graph image was not preserved for this archived snapshot.
Review note: Review this hero in replays before treating any pattern as causal.
Pattern note: No clear item-timing split showed up for this hero, so this box leans on item timing instead of a main pattern.
| Item | Win rate | # | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| 81% | 10 | 3:56 | |
| 73% | 11 | 14:23 | |
| 73% | 11 | 10:03 | |
| 73% | 11 | 10:42 | |
| 68% | 15 | 6:52 |
| Item | Win rate | # | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| 65% | 16 | 7:49 | |
| 65% | 10 | 13:57 | |
| 66% | 21 | 9:58 | |
| 68% | 15 | 6:52 | |
| 73% | 11 | 14:23 |
The graph image was not preserved for this archived snapshot.
Review note: Review this hero in replays before treating any pattern as causal.
Pattern note: No clear item-timing split showed up for this hero, so this box leans on item timing instead of a main pattern.
| Item | Win rate | # | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62% | 16 | 26:54 | |
| 57% | 23 | 20:26 | |
| 56% | 15 | 17:18 | |
| 55% | 14 | 2:36 | |
| 55% | 30 | 21:36 |
| Item | Win rate | # | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45% | 28 | 15:04 | |
| 46% | 20 | 4:33 | |
| 50% | 32 | 21:45 | |
| 50% | 34 | 8:12 | |
| 51% | 35 | 3:59 |
The graph image was not preserved for this archived snapshot.
Use these hero boxes as replay checklists. The patterns are signals, not proof: compare the losing pattern games against the stronger pattern games before changing the whole build. Treat items listed under watch carefully as possible already-hard-game buys before treating them as the cause.