Deadlock Hero Balance Predictions
Paradox buff/nerf predictor prototype
Generated from the Paradox predictor DuckDB, recent patch history, and a three-stage prediction model.
Prediction Model
Paradox Buff/Nerf Watch
This page is the hero-side version of the item prediction screen. The target is whether a hero looks more likely to be buffed, nerfed, or left alone in a future patch. This first page is Paradox-only so the predictors can be reviewed before expanding to every hero.
Best read: this is now a three-stage experiment. It first asks whether Paradox is likely to change, then which broad mechanic would be selected, then the direction of that selected mechanic. Later stages are conditional and must not be read as standalone certainty.
- Stage 1
- Will Paradox receive any balance change in the next patch?
- Stage 2
- If Paradox changes, which mechanic family is most likely to be selected?
- Stage 3
- If that family is selected, does its patch direction look like buff, nerf, or mixed/rework?
- Future learning
- Weekly snapshots preserve hero stats and ability values over time. They are enabled as model features only after changed and unchanged patches both have adequate coverage.
Three-Stage Next-Patch Forecast
1
Will Paradox change?
12.4%
Estimated chance of any Paradox balance change. No-change estimate: 87.6%.
Disclaimer: Experimental. This is based on one hero's patch history and has not been proven accurate — Stage 1 and Stage 2 don't yet beat a simple "no change" guess on holdout data. Treat every number on this page as a rough signal, not a confirmed forecast.
Stages 2 and 3: target and direction if Paradox changes
| Mechanic | Selected if changed | Direction | Buff if selected | Nerf if selected | Mixed/rework if selected | Combined priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paradoxical Swap | 3.8% | Buff | 66.8% | 3.9% | 29.2% | 0.5% |
| Spirit | 3.7% | Mixed Or Rework | 26.4% | 16.8% | 56.8% | 0.5% |
| Time Wall | 2.8% | Buff | 77.2% | 0.5% | 22.4% | 0.3% |
| Kinetic Carbine | 2.4% | Buff | 66.3% | 2.9% | 30.8% | 0.3% |
| Pulse Grenade | 1.9% | Buff | 68.3% | 1.6% | 30.1% | 0.2% |
| Weapon | 0.6% | Mixed Or Rework | 41.8% | 8.7% | 49.5% | 0.1% |
| Vitality | 0.2% | Mixed Or Rework | 43.0% | 8.7% | 48.3% | 0.0% |
Combined priority multiplies Stage 1 by Stage 2 to help sort the watchlist. It is not a calibrated probability that the named mechanic will change.
Validation and Data Readiness
Every stage uses older patches for training and newer patches for testing. The current patch calendar contains 138 update dates through 2026-06-12.
| Stage | Test rows | Balanced accuracy | Macro F1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stage 1 - hero changedWhether Paradox receives any balance change. | 28 | 50.0% | 0.472 |
| Stage 2 - mechanic selectedWhich mechanic family is selected if Paradox changes. | 196 | 50.0% | 0.488 |
| Stage 3 - conditional directionBuff, nerf, or mixed/rework after a mechanic is selected. | 3 | 0.0% | 0.000 |
Performance feature gate: withheld. Historical pre-patch win-rate coverage is 0.0%; the required coverage is 80.0%. Performance features are withheld because missingness is too sparse or too strongly associated with whether Paradox changed.
The weekly collector now stores all hero performance, base stats, and ability properties without overwriting prior snapshots. Once enough unchanged and changed patches have comparable coverage, performance and ability-strength features can enter training without leaking the answer.
Paradox Patch Changes
51 Paradox patch-change rows are included from the recent patch window.
| Patch | Predictor | Direction | Before | After | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-22 | kinetic_carbine_t3ability:kinetic_carbine | Buff | +50% Max Damage Scaling | +55% | Kinetic Carbine T3 increased from +50% Max Damage Scaling to +55% |
| 2026-05-22 | paradoxical_swap_damageability:paradoxical_swap | Buff | 125 | 150 | Paradoxical Swap damage increased from 125 to 150 |
| 2026-05-22 | time_wall_t1_durationability:time_wall | Buff | +2.5s | +3 | Time Wall T1 duration increased from +2.5s to +3.5s |
| 2026-05-22 | time_wall_t3ability:time_wall | Buff | +1 Charge | +2 | Time Wall T3 increased from +1 Charge to +2 |
| 2026-05-22 | time_wall_t3_charge_delayability:time_wall | Nerf | 4s | 2s | Time Wall T3 Charge Delay reduced from 4s to 2s |
| 2026-04-30 | kinetic_carbineability:kinetic_carbine | Rework | Kinetic Carbine now provides +20% Air Dash Distance when charged | ||
| 2026-04-30 | kinetic_carbine_cooldownability:kinetic_carbine | Nerf | 30s | 28s | Kinetic Carbine cooldown reduced from 30s to 28s |
| 2026-04-30 | time_wall_t2_weapon_damageability:time_wall | Buff | +30% | +35% | Time Wall T2 weapon damage increased from +30% to +35% |
| 2026-03-06 | kinetic_carbine_base_damage_scaleability:kinetic_carbine | Buff | 100% | 125% | Kinetic Carbine base damage scale increased from 100% to 125% |
| 2026-03-06 | kinetic_carbine_cooldownability:kinetic_carbine | Buff | 27s | 30s | Kinetic Carbine cooldown increased from 27s to 30s |
| 2026-03-06 | kinetic_carbine_speed_spirit_scalingability:kinetic_carbine | Buff | 0.09 | 0 | Kinetic Carbine speed spirit scaling increased from 0.09 to 0.13 |
| 2026-03-06 | kinetic_carbine_t2ability:kinetic_carbine | Rework | "-8s Cooldown and +2s Charge Hold" | "-12s Cooldown" | Kinetic Carbine T2 changed from "-8s Cooldown and +2s Charge Hold" to "-12s Cooldown" |
| 2026-03-06 | kinetic_carbine_t3ability:kinetic_carbine | Buff | Kinetic Carbine T3 now also increases charge hold by 2s | ||
| 2026-03-06 | paradoxical_swapability:paradoxical_swap | Nerf | Paradoxical Swap no longer has 80% Spirit Lifesteal | ||
| 2026-03-06 | paradoxical_swap_canability:paradoxical_swap | Rework | Paradoxical Swap can now be alt casted to swap only a single target with the T3 | ||
| 2026-03-06 | paradoxical_swap_cooldownability:paradoxical_swap | Buff | 75s | 95s | Paradoxical Swap cooldown increased from 75s to 95s |
| 2026-03-06 | paradoxical_swap_damageability:paradoxical_swap | Rework | 10% Current Health | 125 with 1 | Paradoxical Swap damage changed from 10% Current Health to 125 with 1.1 spirit scaling |
| 2026-03-06 | paradoxical_swap_damageability:paradoxical_swap | Rework | 115 (0.6 spirit scaling) | 10% Current Health | Paradoxical Swap damage changed from 115 (0.6 spirit scaling) to 10% Current Health |
| 2026-03-06 | paradoxical_swap_t1ability:paradoxical_swap | Rework | "-15s Cooldown" | "+200 Barrier (1 | Paradoxical Swap T1 changed from "-15s Cooldown" to "+200 Barrier (1.5 Spirit Scaling)" |
| 2026-03-06 | paradoxical_swap_t2ability:paradoxical_swap | Rework | "+81 Damage" | "+13m Cast Range and -35s Cooldown" | Paradoxical Swap T2 changed from "+81 Damage" to "+13m Cast Range and -35s Cooldown" |
| 2026-03-06 | paradoxical_swap_t3ability:paradoxical_swap | Rework | 10% Current Health | 10% Max Health | Paradoxical Swap T3 changed from 10% Current Health to 10% Max Health |
| 2026-03-06 | paradoxical_swap_t3ability:paradoxical_swap | Rework | "+15m Cast Range" | "Swaps additional enemies in 7m radius and +10% Current Health Damage" | Paradoxical Swap T3 changed from "+15m Cast Range" to "Swaps additional enemies in 7m radius and +10% Current Health Damage" |
| 2026-03-06 | pulse_grenadeability:pulse_grenade | Rework | -30% Move Speed for 2s | -20% Time Slow for 0 | Pulse Grenade changed from -30% Move Speed for 2s to -20% Time Slow for 0.2s |
| 2026-03-06 | pulse_grenade_amp_per_stackability:pulse_grenade | Nerf | 6% | 4% | Pulse Grenade Amp Per Stack reduced from 6% to 4% |
| 2026-03-06 | pulse_grenade_cooldownability:pulse_grenade | Buff | 28s | 32s | Pulse Grenade cooldown increased from 28s to 32s |
| 2026-03-06 | pulse_grenade_does_half_damage_to_objectivesability:pulse_grenade | Rework | Pulse Grenade does half damage to objectives | ||
| 2026-03-06 | pulse_grenade_radiusability:pulse_grenade | Nerf | 6m | 5 | Pulse Grenade radius reduced from 6m to 5.5m |
| 2026-03-06 | pulse_grenade_radius_increases_by_1m_per_pulseability:pulse_grenade | Rework | Pulse Grenade radius increases by +1m per Pulse | ||
| 2026-03-06 | pulse_grenade_spirit_scalingability:pulse_grenade | Nerf | 0.4 | 0 | Pulse Grenade spirit scaling reduced from 0.4 to 0.3 |
| 2026-03-06 | pulse_grenade_spirit_scalingability:pulse_grenade | Nerf | 0.6 | 0 | Pulse Grenade spirit scaling reduced from 0.6 to 0.4 |
| 2026-03-06 | pulse_grenade_t1ability:pulse_grenade | Rework | +0.8s Duration | -12s Cooldown | Pulse Grenade T1 changed from +0.8s Duration to -12s Cooldown |
| 2026-03-06 | pulse_grenade_t2ability:pulse_grenade | Rework | "-8s Cooldown" | "+20 Pulse Damage and +0 | Pulse Grenade T2 changed from "-8s Cooldown" to "+20 Pulse Damage and +0.5 Spirit Scaling" |
| 2026-03-06 | pulse_grenade_t3ability:pulse_grenade | Rework | "+36 Pulse Damage and +0.8m Radius per Pulse" | "+4% Damage Amp Per Stack and +1 | Pulse Grenade T3 changed from "+36 Pulse Damage and +0.8m Radius per Pulse" to "+4% Damage Amp Per Stack and +1.6s Duration" |
| 2026-03-06 | time_wallability:time_wall | Rework | Time Wall now increases adds +30% Weapon Damage to allied bullet damage (affects Carbine) | ||
| 2026-03-06 | time_wallability:time_wall | Rework | Time Wall now increases allied bullet speeds going through it by 100% | ||
| 2026-03-06 | time_wallability:time_wall | Nerf | Time Wall no longer damages enemies going through it | ||
| 2026-03-06 | time_wall_durationability:time_wall | Nerf | 6s | 5 | Time Wall duration reduced from 6s to 5.5 |
| 2026-03-06 | time_wall_slow_durationability:time_wall | Buff | 1.25s | 2s | Time Wall slow duration increased from 1.25s to 2s |
| 2026-03-06 | time_wall_t1ability:time_wall | Buff | +2m Width | +3m | Time Wall T1 increased from +2m Width to +3m |
| 2026-03-06 | time_wall_t1ability:time_wall | Buff | Time Wall T1 now also increases duration by +2.5s | ||
| 2026-03-06 | time_wall_t2ability:time_wall | Rework | "+9% Max Health Damage" | "+2 | Time Wall T2 changed from "+9% Max Health Damage" to "+2.5s Duration and +30% Weapon Damage" |
| 2026-03-06 | time_wall_t2ability:time_wall | Nerf | Time Wall T2 no longer increases duration by +2.5s | ||
| 2026-03-06 | time_wall_t2ability:time_wall | Buff | Time Wall T2 now also silences enemies for 2.3s | ||
| 2026-03-06 | time_wall_t3ability:time_wall | Rework | silencing enemies | Allowing Charges and Granting +1 Charge (4s Charge Time) | Time Wall T3 changed from silencing enemies to Allowing Charges and Granting +1 Charge (4s Charge Time) |
| 2025-11-21 | fixed_a_bug_where_you_could_airdash_further_then_expected_with_kinetic_carbineability:kinetic_carbine | Rework | Fixed a bug where you could airdash further then expected with Kinetic Carbine | ||
| 2025-11-21 | pulse_grenade_damageability:pulse_grenade | Nerf | 40 | 35 | Pulse Grenade damage reduced from 40 to 35 |
| 2025-11-21 | pulse_grenade_spirit_scalingability:pulse_grenade | Buff | 0.43 | 0 | Pulse Grenade spirit scaling increased from 0.43 to 0.55 |
| 2025-11-21 | base_healthvitality | Nerf | 700 | 650 | Base health reduced from 700 to 650 |
| 2025-11-21 | base_regenvitality | Nerf | 2.0 | 1 | Base regen reduced from 2.0 to 1.0 |
| 2025-11-21 | health_per_boonvitality | Nerf | 47 | 45 | Health per boon reduced from 47 to 45 |
| 2025-11-21 | bullet_damage_growthweapon | Nerf | 0.27 | 0 | Bullet damage growth reduced from 0.27 to 0.22 |
Hero Balance Predictions
Paradox buff/nerf prototype
Forecasts whether Paradox is likely to change next patch, using recent patch history and the Paradox predictor DuckDB.