Deadlock Hero Balance Predictions
Paige buff/nerf predictor prototype
Generated from the Paige predictor DuckDB, recent patch history, and a three-stage prediction model.
Prediction Model

Paige Buff/Nerf Watch

This page is the hero-side version of the item prediction screen. The target is whether a hero looks more likely to be buffed, nerfed, or left alone in a future patch. This first page is Paige-only so the predictors can be reviewed before expanding to every hero.

Best read: this is now a three-stage experiment. It first asks whether Paige is likely to change, then which broad mechanic would be selected, then the direction of that selected mechanic. Later stages are conditional and must not be read as standalone certainty.
Stage 1
Will Paige receive any balance change in the next patch?
Stage 2
If Paige changes, which mechanic family is most likely to be selected?
Stage 3
If that family is selected, does its patch direction look like buff, nerf, or mixed/rework?
Future learning
Weekly snapshots preserve hero stats and ability values over time. They are enabled as model features only after changed and unchanged patches both have adequate coverage.
Three-Stage Next-Patch Forecast
1

Will Paige change?

16.7%

Estimated chance of any Paige balance change. No-change estimate: 83.3%.

Disclaimer: Experimental. This is based on one hero's patch history and has not been proven accurate — Stage 1 and Stage 2 don't yet beat a simple "no change" guess on holdout data. Treat every number on this page as a rough signal, not a confirmed forecast.

Stages 2 and 3: target and direction if Paige changes

Mechanic Selected if changed Direction Buff if selected Nerf if selected Mixed/rework if selected Combined priority
Bookwyrm 9.7% Buff 45.9% 27.5% 26.6% 1.6%
Plot Armor 8.4% Buff 46.0% 34.0% 20.0% 1.4%
Vitality 7.6% Mixed Or Rework 31.5% 24.9% 43.6% 1.3%
Rallying Charge 7.4% Nerf 33.6% 43.7% 22.7% 1.2%
Spirit 4.8% Mixed Or Rework 33.0% 8.6% 58.4% 0.8%
Captivating Read 3.3% Mixed Or Rework 26.0% 28.1% 45.8% 0.5%
Weapon 2.2% Mixed Or Rework 29.2% 33.8% 37.0% 0.4%

Combined priority multiplies Stage 1 by Stage 2 to help sort the watchlist. It is not a calibrated probability that the named mechanic will change.

Validation and Data Readiness

Every stage uses older patches for training and newer patches for testing. The current patch calendar contains 138 update dates through 2026-06-12.

Stage Test rows Balanced accuracy Macro F1
Stage 1 - hero changedWhether Paige receives any balance change. 28 50.0% 0.462
Stage 2 - mechanic selectedWhich mechanic family is selected if Paige changes. 196 50.0% 0.486
Stage 3 - conditional directionBuff, nerf, or mixed/rework after a mechanic is selected. 2 0.0% 0.000
Performance feature gate: withheld. Historical pre-patch win-rate coverage is 0.0%; the required coverage is 80.0%. Performance features are withheld because missingness is too sparse or too strongly associated with whether Paige changed.

The weekly collector now stores all hero performance, base stats, and ability properties without overwriting prior snapshots. Once enough unchanged and changed patches have comparable coverage, performance and ability-strength features can enter training without leaking the answer.

Paige Patch Changes

35 Paige patch-change rows are included from the recent patch window.

Patch Predictor Direction Before After Notes
2026-06-12 plot_armor_barrier_spirit_scalingability:plot_armor Buff 1.3 1 Plot Armor barrier spirit scaling increased from 1.3 to 1.5
2026-06-12 plot_armor_t3_barrier_spirit_scalingability:plot_armor Buff +0.3 +0 Plot Armor T3 barrier spirit scaling increased from +0.3 to +0.5
2026-06-12 rallying_charge_distance_for_max_ampability:rallying_charge Nerf 350m 250m Rallying Charge distance for max amp reduced from 350m to 250m
2026-06-12 rallying_charge_t2ability:rallying_charge Buff -30s Cooldown -50s Rallying Charge T2 increased from -30s Cooldown to -50s
2026-05-22 bookwyrm_t2_improved_from_8s_cooldown_to_12sability:bookwyrm Buff -8s Cooldown -12s Bookwyrm T2 improved from -8s Cooldown to -12s
2026-05-22 rallying_chargeability:rallying_charge Rework Rallying Charge now has half cooldown if it hits no allies or enemies
2026-05-22 rallying_charge_t3ability:rallying_charge Buff +135 Damage +160 Rallying Charge T3 increased from +135 Damage to +160
2026-04-30 bookwyrm_recharge_timerability:bookwyrm Nerf 8s 7s Bookwyrm recharge timer reduced from 8s to 7s
2026-04-30 plot_armor_cooldownability:plot_armor Nerf 30s 28s Plot Armor cooldown reduced from 30s to 28s
2026-04-30 dash_speedvitality Nerf Dash speed reduced to slow bucket
2026-04-30 staminavitality Buff 2 3 Stamina increased from 2 to 3
2026-03-06 bookwyrmability:bookwyrm Rework Bookwyrm fixed initial location not starting where you click it
2026-03-06 bookwyrm_cooldownability:bookwyrm Buff 30s 33s Bookwyrm cooldown increased from 30s to 33s
2026-03-06 bookwyrm_t1ability:bookwyrm Rework "-5s Cooldown" "+2s Trail Duration and +1m Width" Bookwyrm T1 changed from "-5s Cooldown" to "+2s Trail Duration and +1m Width"
2026-03-06 bookwyrm_t2ability:bookwyrm Rework "+2s Trail Duration" "-8s Cooldown and +10m Travel Range" Bookwyrm T2 changed from "+2s Trail Duration" to "-8s Cooldown and +10m Travel Range"
2026-03-06 bookwyrm_t3ability:bookwyrm Buff Bookwyrm T3 now also grants +1 Charge
2026-03-06 bookwyrm_t3_damage_dps_rescaled_from_104_27_to_100_30ability:bookwyrm Rework 104/27 100/30 Bookwyrm T3 Damage/DPS rescaled from 104/27 to 100/30
2026-03-06 conjure_dragon_renamed_to_bookwyrmability:bookwyrm Rework Conjure Dragon renamed to Bookwyrm
2026-03-06 captivating_read_cooldownability:captivating_read Buff 25s 30s Captivating Read cooldown increased from 25s to 30s
2026-03-06 captivating_read_height_areaability:captivating_read Nerf Captivating Read height area no longer increases with range bonuses
2026-03-06 captivating_read_immobilize_durationability:captivating_read Nerf 1.25s 1s Captivating Read immobilize duration reduced from 1.25s to 1s
2026-03-06 captivating_read_t1_cooldownability:captivating_read Buff -6s -11s Captivating Read T1 cooldown increased from -6s to -11s
2026-03-06 captivating_read_t2_immobilize_durationability:captivating_read Buff 0.75s 1s Captivating Read T2 immobilize duration increased from 0.75s to 1s
2026-03-06 captivating_read_t3ability:captivating_read Buff Captivating Read T3 now also increases radius by 1m
2026-03-06 defend_and_fight_renamed_to_plot_armorability:plot_armor Rework Defend and Fight! renamed to Plot Armor
2026-03-06 plot_armor_barrier_spirit_scalingability:plot_armor Nerf 1.6 1 Plot Armor barrier spirit scaling reduced from 1.6 to 1.3
2026-03-06 plot_armor_t3ability:plot_armor Buff Plot Armor T3 now also increases spirit scaling (+0.3)
2026-03-06 rallying_charge_t2ability:rallying_charge Buff Rallying Charge T2 now also reduces cooldown by 30s
2026-03-06 rallying_charge_t3ability:rallying_charge Buff +100% +150% Rallying Charge T3 now also increases Max Amp from +100% to +150%
2025-11-21 defend_and_fight_barriervitality Nerf 200 150 Defend and Fight! barrier reduced from 200 to 150
2025-11-21 defend_and_fight_durationvitality Nerf 7s 5s Defend and Fight! duration reduced from 7s to 5s
2025-11-21 defend_and_fight_t2vitality Buff Defend and Fight! T2 now also grants +2s Duration
2025-11-21 bullet_damage_growthweapon Nerf 0.66 0 Bullet damage growth reduced from 0.66 to 0.52
2025-11-21 defend_and_fight_t1weapon Rework +50 Barrier +16% Fire Rate (with 0 Defend and Fight! T1 changed from +50 Barrier to +16% Fire Rate (with 0.15 Spirit Power scaling)
2025-11-21 defend_and_fight_t2weapon Rework +25% Fire Rate +100 Barrier Defend and Fight! T2 changed from +25% Fire Rate to +100 Barrier
Deadlock
Hero Balance Predictions
Paige buff/nerf prototype
Forecasts whether Paige is likely to change next patch, using recent patch history and the Paige predictor DuckDB.