Deadlock Hero Balance Predictions
Nurse Harrow buff/nerf predictor prototype
Generated from the Nurse Harrow predictor DuckDB, recent patch history, and a three-stage prediction model.
Prediction Model
Nurse Harrow Buff/Nerf Watch
This page is the hero-side version of the item prediction screen. The target is whether a hero looks more likely to be buffed, nerfed, or left alone in a future patch. This first page is Nurse Harrow-only so the predictors can be reviewed before expanding to every hero.
Best read: this is now a three-stage experiment. It first asks whether Nurse Harrow is likely to change, then which broad mechanic would be selected, then the direction of that selected mechanic. Later stages are conditional and must not be read as standalone certainty.
- Stage 1
- Will Nurse Harrow receive any balance change in the next patch?
- Stage 2
- If Nurse Harrow changes, which mechanic family is most likely to be selected?
- Stage 3
- If that family is selected, does its patch direction look like buff, nerf, or mixed/rework?
- Future learning
- Weekly snapshots preserve hero stats and ability values over time. They are enabled as model features only after changed and unchanged patches both have adequate coverage.
Three-Stage Next-Patch Forecast
1
Will Nurse Harrow change?
71.4%
Estimated chance of any Nurse Harrow balance change. No-change estimate: 28.6%.
Disclaimer: Experimental. This is based on one hero's patch history and has not been proven accurate — Stage 1 and Stage 2 don't yet beat a simple "no change" guess on holdout data. Treat every number on this page as a rough signal, not a confirmed forecast.
Stages 2 and 3: target and direction if Nurse Harrow changes
| Mechanic | Selected if changed | Direction | Buff if selected | Nerf if selected | Mixed/rework if selected | Combined priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lurking Terrors | 59.7% | Mixed Or Rework | 29.2% | 21.1% | 49.7% | 42.6% |
| Weapon | 44.8% | Mixed Or Rework | 31.1% | 23.9% | 44.9% | 32.0% |
| Wretched Vapors | 42.8% | Mixed Or Rework | 31.1% | 23.9% | 44.9% | 30.6% |
| Spirit | 42.7% | Mixed Or Rework | 31.1% | 23.9% | 44.9% | 30.5% |
| Healing Needles | 42.3% | Mixed Or Rework | 31.1% | 23.9% | 44.9% | 30.2% |
| Leech Therapy | 40.6% | Mixed Or Rework | 31.1% | 23.9% | 44.9% | 29.0% |
| Vitality | 36.0% | Mixed Or Rework | 31.1% | 23.9% | 44.9% | 25.7% |
Combined priority multiplies Stage 1 by Stage 2 to help sort the watchlist. It is not a calibrated probability that the named mechanic will change.
Validation and Data Readiness
Every stage uses older patches for training and newer patches for testing. The current patch calendar contains 167 update dates through 2026-11-05.
| Stage | Test rows | Balanced accuracy | Macro F1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stage 1 - hero changedWhether Nurse Harrow receives any balance change. | 34 | 50.0% | 0.485 |
| Stage 2 - mechanic selectedWhich mechanic family is selected if Nurse Harrow changes. | 238 | 50.0% | 0.495 |
| Stage 3 - conditional directionBuff, nerf, or mixed/rework after a mechanic is selected. | 2 | 50.0% | 0.333 |
Performance feature gate: withheld. Historical pre-patch win-rate coverage is 1.8%; the required coverage is 80.0%. Performance features are withheld because missingness is too sparse or too strongly associated with whether Nurse Harrow changed.
The weekly collector now stores all hero performance, base stats, and ability properties without overwriting prior snapshots. Once enough unchanged and changed patches have comparable coverage, performance and ability-strength features can enter training without leaking the answer.
Nurse Harrow Patch Changes
11 Nurse Harrow patch-change rows are included from the recent patch window.
| Patch | Predictor | Direction | Before | After | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-05 | lurking_terrors_fear_buildup_timeability:lurking_terrors | Nerf | 2s | 1 | Lurking Terrors - Fear buildup time reduced from 2s to 1.75s |
| 2026-11-05 | lurking_terrors_vertical_angleability:lurking_terrors | Buff | 50% | 65% | Lurking Terrors - Vertical angle increased from 50% to 65% |
| 2026-11-05 | bullet_damageweapon | Buff | Bullet damage increased by 8% | ||
| 2026-10-30 | leech_therapyability:leech_therapy | Rework | Leech Therapy - Fixed enemies being unable to see the glow on the hunting leeches | ||
| 2026-10-30 | leech_therapyability:leech_therapy | Rework | Leech Therapy - Fixed leeches attaching to targets while the game is paused | ||
| 2026-10-30 | leech_therapy_fed_leeches_duration_on_the_groundability:leech_therapy | Rework | a fixed 180s | 120s + 3s/min | Leech Therapy - Fed leeches duration on the ground changed from a fixed 180s to 120s + 3s/min |
| 2026-10-30 | leech_therapy_leeches_on_the_ground_areability:leech_therapy | Nerf | Leech Therapy - Leeches on the ground are now removed on round reset | ||
| 2026-10-30 | lurking_terrors_enemiesability:lurking_terrors | Nerf | Lurking Terrors - Enemies no longer build fear when Nurse is more than 50 degrees above or below their view | ||
| 2026-10-30 | lurking_terrors_fear_buildup_timeability:lurking_terrors | Buff | 1.3s | 2s | Lurking Terrors - Fear buildup time increased from 1.3s to 2s |
| 2026-10-30 | lurking_terrors_t3ability:lurking_terrors | Nerf | "Immune | damage while channeling" to "Takes 50% Reduced Damage while channeling" | Lurking Terrors - T3 changed from "Immune to damage while channeling" to "Takes 50% Reduced Damage while channeling" |
| 2026-10-30 | base_gun_damagevitality | Nerf | Base gun damage reduced by 10% |
Hero Balance Predictions
Nurse Harrow buff/nerf prototype
Forecasts whether Nurse Harrow is likely to change next patch, using recent patch history and the Nurse Harrow predictor DuckDB.