Deadlock Hero Balance Predictions
Mo & Krill buff/nerf predictor prototype
Generated from the Mo & Krill predictor DuckDB, recent patch history, and a three-stage prediction model.
Prediction Model
Mo & Krill Buff/Nerf Watch
This page is the hero-side version of the item prediction screen. The target is whether a hero looks more likely to be buffed, nerfed, or left alone in a future patch. This first page is Mo & Krill-only so the predictors can be reviewed before expanding to every hero.
Best read: this is now a three-stage experiment. It first asks whether Mo & Krill is likely to change, then which broad mechanic would be selected, then the direction of that selected mechanic. Later stages are conditional and must not be read as standalone certainty.
- Stage 1
- Will Mo & Krill receive any balance change in the next patch?
- Stage 2
- If Mo & Krill changes, which mechanic family is most likely to be selected?
- Stage 3
- If that family is selected, does its patch direction look like buff, nerf, or mixed/rework?
- Future learning
- Weekly snapshots preserve hero stats and ability values over time. They are enabled as model features only after changed and unchanged patches both have adequate coverage.
Three-Stage Next-Patch Forecast
1
Will Mo & Krill change?
12.4%
Estimated chance of any Mo & Krill balance change. No-change estimate: 87.6%.
Disclaimer: Experimental. This is based on one hero's patch history and has not been proven accurate — Stage 1 and Stage 2 don't yet beat a simple "no change" guess on holdout data. Treat every number on this page as a rough signal, not a confirmed forecast.
Stages 2 and 3: target and direction if Mo & Krill changes
| Mechanic | Selected if changed | Direction | Buff if selected | Nerf if selected | Mixed/rework if selected | Combined priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sand Blast | 4.0% | Buff | 48.8% | 34.0% | 17.2% | 0.5% |
| Spirit | 3.4% | Mixed Or Rework | 25.7% | 25.9% | 48.4% | 0.4% |
| Weapon | 3.1% | Mixed Or Rework | 25.7% | 25.9% | 48.4% | 0.4% |
| Burrow | 3.1% | Buff | 49.1% | 36.6% | 14.3% | 0.4% |
| Combo | 1.7% | Buff | 54.5% | 33.2% | 12.3% | 0.2% |
| Scorn | 1.6% | Buff | 54.5% | 33.2% | 12.3% | 0.2% |
| Vitality | 0.4% | Buff | 40.8% | 35.3% | 23.9% | 0.0% |
Combined priority multiplies Stage 1 by Stage 2 to help sort the watchlist. It is not a calibrated probability that the named mechanic will change.
Validation and Data Readiness
Every stage uses older patches for training and newer patches for testing. The current patch calendar contains 138 update dates through 2026-06-12.
| Stage | Test rows | Balanced accuracy | Macro F1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stage 1 - hero changedWhether Mo & Krill receives any balance change. | 28 | 50.0% | 0.472 |
| Stage 2 - mechanic selectedWhich mechanic family is selected if Mo & Krill changes. | 196 | 50.0% | 0.491 |
| Stage 3 - conditional directionBuff, nerf, or mixed/rework after a mechanic is selected. | 2 | 0.0% | 0.000 |
Performance feature gate: withheld. Historical pre-patch win-rate coverage is 0.0%; the required coverage is 80.0%. Performance features are withheld because missingness is too sparse or too strongly associated with whether Mo & Krill changed.
The weekly collector now stores all hero performance, base stats, and ability properties without overwriting prior snapshots. Once enough unchanged and changed patches have comparable coverage, performance and ability-strength features can enter training without leaking the answer.
Mo & Krill Patch Changes
39 Mo & Krill patch-change rows are included from the recent patch window.
| Patch | Predictor | Direction | Before | After | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-22 | getting_hit_with_a_meleeability:burrow | Nerf | Getting hit with a melee no longer knocks you up when you are burrowed | ||
| 2026-05-22 | sand_blast_t3ability:sand_blast | Buff | +1s Duration | +1 | Sand Blast T3 increased from +1s Duration to +1.5s |
| 2026-04-30 | burrow_move_speedability:burrow | Buff | +4 | +5 | Burrow move speed increased from +4 to +5 |
| 2026-03-06 | burrowability:burrow | Rework | Burrow now lets you enter the tunnels | ||
| 2026-03-06 | burrow_cooldownability:burrow | Buff | 37s | 40s | Burrow cooldown increased from 37s to 40s |
| 2026-03-06 | burrow_t1ability:burrow | Rework | "+3s Duration" | "+50 Spin DPS" | Burrow T1 changed from "+3s Duration" to "+50 Spin DPS" |
| 2026-03-06 | burrow_t2ability:burrow | Rework | "+68 Spin DPS and +2 Radius" | "+2 Spin Radius and +4s Burrow Time" | Burrow T2 changed from "+68 Spin DPS and +2 Radius" to "+2 Spin Radius and +4s Burrow Time" |
| 2026-03-06 | burrow_t3ability:burrow | Buff | +2 m/s Move Speed | +4 | Burrow T3 increased from +2 m/s Move Speed to +4 |
| 2026-03-06 | burrow_t3ability:burrow | Buff | -19s Cooldown | -20s | Burrow T3 increased from -19s Cooldown to -20s |
| 2026-03-06 | combo_cooldownability:combo | Nerf | 150s | 140s | Combo cooldown reduced from 150s to 140s |
| 2026-03-06 | combo_cooldownability:combo | Buff | 90s | 150s | Combo cooldown increased from 90s to 150s |
| 2026-03-06 | combo_cooldownability:combo | Nerf | 140s | 130s | Combo cooldown reduced from 140s to 130s |
| 2026-03-06 | combo_dpsability:combo | Nerf | 45 | 40 | Combo DPS reduced from 45 to 40 |
| 2026-03-06 | combo_dpsability:combo | Nerf | 60 | 45 | Combo DPS reduced from 60 to 45 |
| 2026-03-06 | combo_dpsability:combo | Buff | 35 | 60 | Combo DPS increased from 35 to 60 |
| 2026-03-06 | combo_dps_spirit_scalingability:combo | Nerf | 1.2 | 0 | Combo DPS spirit scaling reduced from 1.2 to 0.6 |
| 2026-03-06 | combo_health_rescaled_from_50_to_30_1_boon_not_retroactiveability:combo | Rework | 50 | 30 + 1/Boon (not retroactive) | Combo health rescaled from 50 to 30 + 1/Boon (not retroactive) |
| 2026-03-06 | combo_rangeability:combo | Nerf | 4.8m | 4m | Combo range reduced from 4.8m to 4m |
| 2026-03-06 | combo_t1ability:combo | Rework | Combo T1 changed "+30% Bullet Resist During Combo" to "+100% Lifesteal" | ||
| 2026-03-06 | combo_t2ability:combo | Rework | "+0.7s Duration" | "+60 DPS and +50% Bullet Resist" | Combo T2 changed from "+0.7s Duration" to "+60 DPS and +50% Bullet Resist" |
| 2026-03-06 | combo_t2ability:combo | Rework | "+60 DPS and +50% Bullet Resist" | "-35s Cooldown and +50% Bullet Resist" | Combo T2 changed from "+60 DPS and +50% Bullet Resist" to "-35s Cooldown and +50% Bullet Resist" |
| 2026-03-06 | combo_t3ability:combo | Rework | "+32 DPS and 80% Lifesteal" | "+0 | Combo T3 changed from "+32 DPS and 80% Lifesteal" to "+0.7s Duration and -60s Cooldown" |
| 2026-03-06 | combo_t3ability:combo | Buff | Combo T3 now also increases spirit scaling +0.4 | ||
| 2026-03-06 | combo_t3ability:combo | Rework | +0.7s Duration and -60s Cooldown" | "+0 | Combo T3 changed from +0.7s Duration and -60s Cooldown" to "+0.7s Duration and +60 Damage" |
| 2026-03-06 | combo_t3_dpsability:combo | Nerf | +60 | +50 | Combo T3 DPS reduced from +60 to +50 |
| 2026-03-06 | sand_blast_cooldownability:sand_blast | Nerf | 42s | 40s | Sand Blast cooldown reduced from 42s to 40s |
| 2026-03-06 | sand_blast_durationability:sand_blast | Nerf | 3s | 2 | Sand Blast duration reduced from 3s to 2.5s |
| 2026-03-06 | sand_blast_rangeability:sand_blast | Nerf | 35m | 25m | Sand Blast range reduced from 35m to 25m |
| 2026-03-06 | sand_blast_t1ability:sand_blast | Rework | "+1s" | "+50 Damage and +5m Range" | Sand Blast T1 changed from "+1s" to "+50 Damage and +5m Range" |
| 2026-03-06 | sand_blast_t2ability:sand_blast | Rework | "-23s Cooldown" | "Slows targets Move Speed and Dash Distance by -25%" | Sand Blast T2 changed from "-23s Cooldown" to "Slows targets Move Speed and Dash Distance by -25%" |
| 2026-03-06 | sand_blast_t3ability:sand_blast | Rework | "Slows targets Move Speed and Dash Distance by -40%" | "+1s Duration and -20s Cooldown" | Sand Blast T3 changed from "Slows targets Move Speed and Dash Distance by -40%" to "+1s Duration and -20s Cooldown" |
| 2026-03-06 | scorn_cooldownability:scorn | Buff | 12.5s | 13s | Scorn cooldown increased from 12.5s to 13s |
| 2026-03-06 | scorn_damageability:scorn | Nerf | 56 | 50 | Scorn damage reduced from 56 to 50 |
| 2026-03-06 | scorn_heal_vs_non_heroesability:scorn | Nerf | 0.5x | 0 | Scorn heal vs non-heroes reduced from 0.5x to 0.35x |
| 2026-03-06 | scorn_radiusability:scorn | Nerf | 10m | 9m | Scorn radius reduced from 10m to 9m |
| 2026-03-06 | scorn_spirit_scalingability:scorn | Buff | 0.42 | 0 | Scorn spirit scaling increased from 0.42 to 0.75 |
| 2026-03-06 | scorn_t1ability:scorn | Rework | "-3.75s Cooldown" | "+35 Damage" | Scorn T1 changed from "-3.75s Cooldown" to "+35 Damage" |
| 2026-03-06 | scorn_t2ability:scorn | Rework | "+21 Damage" | "-5s Cooldown and +1m Radius" | Scorn T2 changed from "+21 Damage" to "-5s Cooldown and +1m Radius" |
| 2025-11-21 | health_regenvitality | Nerf | 3 | 1 | Health Regen reduced from 3 to 1 |
Hero Balance Predictions
Mo & Krill buff/nerf prototype
Forecasts whether Mo & Krill is likely to change next patch, using recent patch history and the Mo & Krill predictor DuckDB.