Deadlock Hero Balance Predictions
Mirage buff/nerf predictor prototype
Generated from the Mirage predictor DuckDB, recent patch history, and a three-stage prediction model.
Prediction Model

Mirage Buff/Nerf Watch

This page is the hero-side version of the item prediction screen. The target is whether a hero looks more likely to be buffed, nerfed, or left alone in a future patch. This first page is Mirage-only so the predictors can be reviewed before expanding to every hero.

Best read: this is now a three-stage experiment. It first asks whether Mirage is likely to change, then which broad mechanic would be selected, then the direction of that selected mechanic. Later stages are conditional and must not be read as standalone certainty.
Stage 1
Will Mirage receive any balance change in the next patch?
Stage 2
If Mirage changes, which mechanic family is most likely to be selected?
Stage 3
If that family is selected, does its patch direction look like buff, nerf, or mixed/rework?
Future learning
Weekly snapshots preserve hero stats and ability values over time. They are enabled as model features only after changed and unchanged patches both have adequate coverage.
Three-Stage Next-Patch Forecast
1

Will Mirage change?

12.4%

Estimated chance of any Mirage balance change. No-change estimate: 87.6%.

Disclaimer: Experimental. This is based on one hero's patch history and has not been proven accurate — Stage 1 and Stage 2 don't yet beat a simple "no change" guess on holdout data. Treat every number on this page as a rough signal, not a confirmed forecast.

Stages 2 and 3: target and direction if Mirage changes

Mechanic Selected if changed Direction Buff if selected Nerf if selected Mixed/rework if selected Combined priority
Spirit 7.9% Nerf 7.1% 62.3% 30.6% 1.0%
Djinn S Mark 6.1% Mixed Or Rework 3.8% 47.2% 49.0% 0.8%
Dust Devil 4.0% Nerf 3.8% 51.5% 44.7% 0.5%
Vitality 3.8% Nerf 6.9% 51.7% 41.4% 0.5%
Fire Scarabs 3.3% Nerf 10.5% 51.3% 38.3% 0.4%
Weapon 1.9% Nerf 6.9% 51.0% 42.1% 0.2%
Traveler 1.7% Mixed Or Rework 3.4% 48.1% 48.5% 0.2%

Combined priority multiplies Stage 1 by Stage 2 to help sort the watchlist. It is not a calibrated probability that the named mechanic will change.

Validation and Data Readiness

Every stage uses older patches for training and newer patches for testing. The current patch calendar contains 138 update dates through 2026-06-12.

Stage Test rows Balanced accuracy Macro F1
Stage 1 - hero changedWhether Mirage receives any balance change. 28 50.0% 0.472
Stage 2 - mechanic selectedWhich mechanic family is selected if Mirage changes. 196 50.0% 0.490
Stage 3 - conditional directionBuff, nerf, or mixed/rework after a mechanic is selected. 1 0.0% 0.000
Performance feature gate: withheld. Historical pre-patch win-rate coverage is 0.0%; the required coverage is 80.0%. Performance features are withheld because missingness is too sparse or too strongly associated with whether Mirage changed.

The weekly collector now stores all hero performance, base stats, and ability properties without overwriting prior snapshots. Once enough unchanged and changed patches have comparable coverage, performance and ability-strength features can enter training without leaking the answer.

Mirage Patch Changes

63 Mirage patch-change rows are included from the recent patch window.

Patch Predictor Direction Before After Notes
2026-05-22 updated_djinn_s_mark_visualsability:djinn_s_mark Rework Updated Djinn's Mark visuals
2026-04-30 fire_scarabs_durationability:fire_scarabs Nerf 8s 7s Fire Scarabs duration reduced from 8s to 7s
2026-04-30 base_health_regenvitality Nerf 2 1 Base health regen reduced from 2 to 1.5
2026-03-06 djinn_s_mark_cooldownability:djinn_s_mark Buff 2.6s 3s Djinn's Mark cooldown increased from 2.6s to 3s
2026-03-06 djinn_s_mark_debuff_visuals_improvedability:djinn_s_mark Buff Djinn's Mark debuff visuals improved
2026-03-06 djinn_s_mark_multiplier_durationability:djinn_s_mark Buff 4.5s 5s Djinn's Mark multiplier duration increased from 4.5s to 5s
2026-03-06 djinn_s_mark_reveal_durationability:djinn_s_mark Buff 3s 6s Djinn's Mark reveal duration increased from 3s to 6s
2026-03-06 djinn_s_mark_spirit_scalingability:djinn_s_mark Nerf 0.51 0 Djinn's Mark spirit scaling reduced from 0.51 to 0.44
2026-03-06 djinn_s_mark_t1ability:djinn_s_mark Rework "60% slow for 0.5s on 2x stack" "Fading 60% slow for 0 Djinn's Mark T1 changed from "60% slow for 0.5s on 2x stack" to "Fading 60% slow for 0.5s"
2026-03-06 djinn_s_mark_t1_slow_durationability:djinn_s_mark Buff 0.5s 0 Djinn's Mark T1 slow duration increased from 0.5s to 0.8s
2026-03-06 djinn_s_mark_t2ability:djinn_s_mark Buff +8.1 Damage +20 Djinn's Mark T2 increased from +8.1 Damage to +20
2026-03-06 djinn_s_mark_t2_multiplier_durationability:djinn_s_mark Buff 2.5s 3s Djinn's Mark T2 multiplier duration increased from 2.5s to 3s
2026-03-06 djinn_s_mark_t3ability:djinn_s_mark Buff Djinn's Mark T3 now also stuns for 0.5s at max stacks
2026-03-06 djinn_s_mark_t3_cooldownability:djinn_s_mark Buff -0.75s -1s Djinn's Mark T3 cooldown increased from -0.75s to -1s
2026-03-06 djinn_s_mark_tooltip_rewritten_to_be_based_on_a_per_stack_basis_a_stack_increases_the_damage_by_200_this_is_just_a_tooltip_changeability:djinn_s_mark Rework Djinn's Mark tooltip rewritten to be based on a "per stack" basis. A stack increases the damage by 200%. (this is just a tooltip change)
2026-03-06 dust_devilability:dust_devil Rework Dust Devil now slows affected enemies by 30% for 3s
2026-03-06 dust_devil_bullet_evasionability:dust_devil Buff 25% 30% Dust Devil bullet evasion increased from 25% to 30%
2026-03-06 dust_devil_bullet_evasion_durationability:dust_devil Buff 3.5s 4s Dust Devil bullet evasion duration increased from 3.5s to 4s
2026-03-06 dust_devil_lift_durationability:dust_devil Nerf 1.0s 0 Dust Devil lift duration reduced from 1.0s to 0.4s
2026-03-06 dust_devil_radiusability:dust_devil Buff 3.5m 4m Dust Devil radius increased from 3.5m to 4m
2026-03-06 dust_devil_spirit_scalingability:dust_devil Nerf 0.7 0 Dust Devil spirit scaling reduced from 0.7 to 0.3
2026-03-06 dust_devil_t1ability:dust_devil Rework "+0.4s Lift Duration" "+60 Damage" Dust Devil T1 changed from "+0.4s Lift Duration" to "+60 Damage"
2026-03-06 dust_devil_t2ability:dust_devil Rework "-14s Cooldown" "-8s Cooldown and +30% Evasion" Dust Devil T2 changed from "-14s Cooldown" to "-8s Cooldown and +30% Evasion"
2026-03-06 dust_devil_t3ability:dust_devil Rework "+20% Bullet" "Can Recast within 5s Dust Devil T3 changed from "+20% Bullet" to "Can Recast within 5s. Increases spirit scaling by 1.0"
2026-03-06 dust_devil_t3_window_to_recastability:dust_devil Buff 5s 6s Dust Devil T3 window to recast increased from 5s to 6s
2026-03-06 tornado_renamed_to_dust_devilability:dust_devil Rework Tornado renamed to Dust Devil
2026-03-06 fire_scarabsability:fire_scarabs Rework the enemy, dealing DPS the enemy and healing you for 8s Fire Scarabs now drains life from the enemy, dealing DPS to the enemy and healing you for 8s.
2026-03-06 fire_scarabsability:fire_scarabs Nerf Fire Scarabs no longer have a limited duration to launch each one. Functions as a normal charged ability.
2026-03-06 fire_scarabsability:fire_scarabs Nerf Fire Scarabs no longer has a reduced effect against non-heroes
2026-03-06 fire_scarabsability:fire_scarabs Rework Fire Scarabs now immediately steal the health from the target
2026-03-06 fire_scarabsability:fire_scarabs Rework -8% Bullet Resist +10% Damage Amp on that target from any damage you deal Fire Scarabs changed from -8% Bullet Resist to +10% Damage Amp on that target from any damage you deal
2026-03-06 fire_scarabsability:fire_scarabs Rework Fire Scarabs now reduces enemy damage output by 20% (and +15% in T3)
2026-03-06 fire_scarabsability:fire_scarabs Nerf Fire Scarabs no longer applies +10% Damage Amp
2026-03-06 fire_scarabsability:fire_scarabs Nerf Fire Scarabs no longer does max health steal
2026-03-06 fire_scarabs_base_chargesability:fire_scarabs Nerf 4 2 Fire Scarabs base charges reduced from 4 to 2
2026-03-06 fire_scarabs_collision_and_model_sizeability:fire_scarabs Buff Fire Scarabs collision and model size increased a bit
2026-03-06 fire_scarabs_cooldownability:fire_scarabs Buff 40s 45s Fire Scarabs cooldown increased from 40s to 45s
2026-03-06 fire_scarabs_cooldownability:fire_scarabs Nerf 45s 35s Fire Scarabs cooldown reduced from 45s to 35s
2026-03-06 fire_scarabs_max_health_stealability:fire_scarabs Buff 45 70 Fire Scarabs Max Health steal increased from 45 to 70
2026-03-06 fire_scarabs_spirit_scalingability:fire_scarabs Nerf 1.0 0 Fire Scarabs spirit scaling reduced from 1.0 to 0.8
2026-03-06 fire_scarabs_t1ability:fire_scarabs Rework "-15s Cooldown" "+50 Max Health Steal" Fire Scarabs T1 changed from "-15s Cooldown" to "+50 Max Health Steal"
2026-03-06 fire_scarabs_t2ability:fire_scarabs Rework "-8% Bullet Resist" "+2 Charges" Fire Scarabs T2 changed from "-8% Bullet Resist" to "+2 Charges"
2026-03-06 fire_scarabs_t3ability:fire_scarabs Rework "+63 Max Health Steal" "+10% Damage Amp and +1 Fire Scarabs T3 changed from "+63 Max Health Steal" to "+10% Damage Amp and +1.2 Spirit Scaling"
2026-03-06 travelerability:traveler Nerf Traveler no longer grants +2m Move Speed and +26% Fire Rate
2026-03-06 travelerability:traveler Rework Traveler now targets a location on the minimap rather than units. Places you at the ground level of that location.
2026-03-06 travelerability:traveler Nerf Traveler no longer channels. It now has a 3s delay before teleporting. Taking damage interrupts the ability and puts it on cooldown for 6s.
2026-03-06 travelerability:traveler Nerf Traveler no longer gets interrupted by non-hero sources nor DOT damage
2026-03-06 traveler_canability:traveler Rework Traveler can now be cast while on the zipline
2026-03-06 traveler_canability:traveler Rework Traveler can now be manually canceled
2026-03-06 traveler_canability:traveler Buff Traveler can now also target units
2026-03-06 traveler_cooldownability:traveler Nerf 155s 145s Traveler cooldown reduced from 155s to 145s
2026-03-06 traveler_cooldownability:traveler Nerf 145s 120s Traveler cooldown reduced from 145s to 120s
2026-03-06 traveler_interrupt_cooldownability:traveler Nerf 6s 4s Traveler interrupt cooldown reduced from 6s to 4s
2026-03-06 traveler_t1ability:traveler Rework "+2m Move Speed and -35s Cooldown" "3m Move Speed for 12s" Traveler T1 changed from "+2m Move Speed and -35s Cooldown" to "3m Move Speed for 12s"
2026-03-06 traveler_t1ability:traveler Buff Traveler T1 now also increases Fire Rate by 20%
2026-03-06 traveler_t2ability:traveler Rework "Grants Traveler Buffs Ally" to "400 Barrier with spirit scaling for 12s" Traveler T2 changed from "Grants Traveler Buffs to Ally" to "400 Barrier with spirit scaling for 12s"
2026-03-06 traveler_t3_unstoppable_for_3s_to_80s_cooldownability:traveler Rework Traveler T3 "Unstoppable for 3s" to "-80s Cooldown"
2026-03-06 traveler_wait_timeability:traveler Nerf 3s 2s Traveler wait time reduced from 3s to 2s
2026-03-06 bullet_damageweapon Nerf 15.2+0.5 14 Bullet damage reduced from 15.2+0.5 to 14.8+0.3
2025-11-21 fire_scarabs_max_health_stealability:fire_scarabs Buff 37 45 Fire Scarabs Max Health steal increased from 37 to 45
2025-11-21 traveler_canability:traveler Rework Traveler can now target friendly objectives
2025-11-21 traveler_cooldownability:traveler Nerf 160s 145s Traveler cooldown reduced from 160s to 145s
2025-11-21 traveler_t1ability:traveler Buff Traveler T1 now also reduces cooldown by 25s
Deadlock
Hero Balance Predictions
Mirage buff/nerf prototype
Forecasts whether Mirage is likely to change next patch, using recent patch history and the Mirage predictor DuckDB.