Deadlock Hero Balance Predictions
Mina buff/nerf predictor prototype
Generated from the Mina predictor DuckDB, recent patch history, and a three-stage prediction model.
Prediction Model
Mina Buff/Nerf Watch
This page is the hero-side version of the item prediction screen. The target is whether a hero looks more likely to be buffed, nerfed, or left alone in a future patch. This first page is Mina-only so the predictors can be reviewed before expanding to every hero.
Best read: this is now a three-stage experiment. It first asks whether Mina is likely to change, then which broad mechanic would be selected, then the direction of that selected mechanic. Later stages are conditional and must not be read as standalone certainty.
- Stage 1
- Will Mina receive any balance change in the next patch?
- Stage 2
- If Mina changes, which mechanic family is most likely to be selected?
- Stage 3
- If that family is selected, does its patch direction look like buff, nerf, or mixed/rework?
- Future learning
- Weekly snapshots preserve hero stats and ability values over time. They are enabled as model features only after changed and unchanged patches both have adequate coverage.
Three-Stage Next-Patch Forecast
1
Will Mina change?
12.5%
Estimated chance of any Mina balance change. No-change estimate: 87.5%.
Disclaimer: Experimental. This is based on one hero's patch history and has not been proven accurate — Stage 1 and Stage 2 don't yet beat a simple "no change" guess on holdout data. Treat every number on this page as a rough signal, not a confirmed forecast.
Stages 2 and 3: target and direction if Mina changes
| Mechanic | Selected if changed | Direction | Buff if selected | Nerf if selected | Mixed/rework if selected | Combined priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rake | 4.4% | Mixed Or Rework | 0.0% | 42.5% | 57.5% | 0.5% |
| Nox Nostra | 3.8% | Nerf | 0.0% | 65.1% | 34.9% | 0.5% |
| Sanguine Retreat | 3.4% | Mixed Or Rework | 0.0% | 31.0% | 69.0% | 0.4% |
| Vitality | 3.1% | Mixed Or Rework | 0.0% | 24.2% | 75.8% | 0.4% |
| Spirit | 2.4% | Mixed Or Rework | 0.0% | 22.6% | 77.4% | 0.3% |
| Love Bites | 2.0% | Mixed Or Rework | 0.0% | 43.3% | 56.7% | 0.2% |
| Weapon | 1.2% | Mixed Or Rework | 0.0% | 22.6% | 77.4% | 0.1% |
Combined priority multiplies Stage 1 by Stage 2 to help sort the watchlist. It is not a calibrated probability that the named mechanic will change.
Validation and Data Readiness
Every stage uses older patches for training and newer patches for testing. The current patch calendar contains 138 update dates through 2026-06-12.
| Stage | Test rows | Balanced accuracy | Macro F1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stage 1 - hero changedWhether Mina receives any balance change. | 28 | 50.0% | 0.472 |
| Stage 2 - mechanic selectedWhich mechanic family is selected if Mina changes. | 196 | 50.0% | 0.487 |
| Stage 3 - conditional directionBuff, nerf, or mixed/rework after a mechanic is selected. | 4 | 100.0% | 1.000 |
Performance feature gate: withheld. Historical pre-patch win-rate coverage is 0.0%; the required coverage is 80.0%. Performance features are withheld because missingness is too sparse or too strongly associated with whether Mina changed.
The weekly collector now stores all hero performance, base stats, and ability properties without overwriting prior snapshots. Once enough unchanged and changed patches have comparable coverage, performance and ability-strength features can enter training without leaking the answer.
Mina Patch Changes
40 Mina patch-change rows are included from the recent patch window.
| Patch | Predictor | Direction | Before | After | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-22 | love_bitesability:love_bites | Nerf | Love Bites no longer applies the flat on hit damage to abilities (was doing 20% of its value on Nox Nostra) | ||
| 2026-05-22 | love_bites_t3ability:love_bites | Buff | -4s Cooldown | -5s | Love Bites T3 increased from -4s Cooldown to -5s |
| 2026-05-22 | nox_nostra_t3ability:nox_nostra | Nerf | 1% Current HP | 0 | Nox Nostra T3 reduced from 1% Current HP to 0.5% |
| 2026-05-22 | fixed_rake_sometimes_not_working_with_high_pingability:rake | Rework | Fixed Rake sometimes not working with high ping | ||
| 2026-05-22 | innate_8_debuff_resistvitality | Rework | Innate -8% Debuff Resist | ||
| 2026-04-30 | nox_nostra_dpsability:nox_nostra | Nerf | Nox Nostra DPS reduced by 6% | ||
| 2026-03-06 | love_bites_bonus_damageability:love_bites | Nerf | 55 | 45 | Love Bites bonus damage reduced from 55 to 45 |
| 2026-03-06 | love_bites_bonus_damage_spirit_scalingability:love_bites | Buff | 1.6 | 1 | Love Bites bonus damage spirit scaling increased from 1.6 to 1.85 |
| 2026-03-06 | love_bites_cooldownability:love_bites | Buff | 8s | 10s | Love Bites Cooldown increased from 8s to 10s |
| 2026-03-06 | love_bites_damageability:love_bites | Nerf | 6 | 4 | Love Bites damage reduced from 6 to 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | love_bites_damage_spirit_scalingability:love_bites | Buff | 0.06 | 0 | Love Bites damage spirit scaling increased from 0.06 to 0.09 |
| 2026-03-06 | love_bites_t1ability:love_bites | Rework | "On Proc: +4 m/s Move Speed for 3s" | "On Proc: 30% Slow for 3s" | Love Bites T1 changed from "On Proc: +4 m/s Move Speed for 3s" to "On Proc: 30% Slow for 3s" |
| 2026-03-06 | love_bites_t2_damage_bonusability:love_bites | Nerf | 3.6/50 | 3/45 | Love Bites T2 Damage/Bonus reduced from 3.6/50 to 3/45 |
| 2026-03-06 | love_bites_t3ability:love_bites | Rework | "On Proc: -1 Stamina and 30% slow for 3s" | "-4s Cooldown and On Proc +25% Fire Rate for 5s" | Love Bites T3 changed from "On Proc: -1 Stamina and 30% slow for 3s" to "-4s Cooldown and On Proc +25% Fire Rate for 5s" |
| 2026-03-06 | fixed_various_issues_with_nox_nostra_bats_not_hitting_things_properly_dps_valueability:nox_nostra | Nerf | Fixed various issues with Nox Nostra bats not hitting things properly (DPS values reduced to compensate for this indirect buff) | ||
| 2026-03-06 | nox_nostra_cooldownability:nox_nostra | Buff | 115s | 130s | Nox Nostra cooldown increased from 115s to 130s |
| 2026-03-06 | nox_nostra_damageability:nox_nostra | Nerf | 6 | 5 | Nox Nostra damage reduced from 6 to 5.6 |
| 2026-03-06 | nox_nostra_t1ability:nox_nostra | Buff | +1.8 | +2 | Nox Nostra T1 increased from +1.8 to +2.2 |
| 2026-03-06 | nox_nostra_t2_cooldownability:nox_nostra | Buff | -40s | -55s | Nox Nostra T2 cooldown increased from -40s to -55s |
| 2026-03-06 | fixed_a_bug_with_rake_with_how_the_low_hp_bonus_damage_against_non_hero_targetsability:rake | Rework | Fixed a bug with Rake with how the low hp bonus damage against non-hero targets was dealt (when they were low, the spirit resist didn't matter effectively) | ||
| 2026-03-06 | rake_cooldownability:rake | Buff | 10s | 16s | Rake cooldown increased from 10s to 16s |
| 2026-03-06 | rake_heal_per_killability:rake | Nerf | 30 | 25 | Rake heal per kill reduced from 30 to 25 |
| 2026-03-06 | rake_heal_per_kill_spirit_scalingability:rake | Nerf | 0.43 | 0 | Rake heal per kill spirit scaling reduced from 0.43 to 0.3 |
| 2026-03-06 | rake_hero_hit_missing_health_as_damageability:rake | Buff | 3% | 5% | Rake hero hit missing health as damage increased from 3% to 5% |
| 2026-03-06 | rake_t1ability:rake | Rework | "+20 Heal Per Kill" | "+60 Damage" | Rake T1 changed from "+20 Heal Per Kill" to "+60 Damage" |
| 2026-03-06 | rake_t2ability:rake | Rework | "+54 Damage and +1.0 Heal Per Kill spirit scaling" | "+30 Heal Per Kill and -8s Cooldown" | Rake T2 changed from "+54 Damage and +1.0 Heal Per Kill spirit scaling" to "+30 Heal Per Kill and -8s Cooldown" |
| 2026-03-06 | rake_t3ability:rake | Buff | Rake T3 now also provides +1.2 Heal Per Kill spirit scaling | ||
| 2026-03-06 | sanguine_retreat_cast_rangeability:sanguine_retreat | Nerf | Sanguine Retreat cast range reduced 10m to 9m | ||
| 2026-03-06 | sanguine_retreat_recast_windowability:sanguine_retreat | Buff | 3s | 3 | Sanguine Retreat recast window increased from 3s to 3.5s |
| 2026-03-06 | sanguine_retreat_t1ability:sanguine_retreat | Rework | "+3m Cast Range" | "+20% Fire Rate and 8 Bullets" | Sanguine Retreat T1 changed from "+3m Cast Range" to "+20% Fire Rate and 8 Bullets" |
| 2026-03-06 | sanguine_retreat_t2ability:sanguine_retreat | Rework | "+25% Fire Rate and 8 Bullets" | "-10s Cooldown" | Sanguine Retreat T2 changed from "+25% Fire Rate and 8 Bullets" to "-10s Cooldown" |
| 2026-03-06 | sanguine_retreat_t3ability:sanguine_retreat | Rework | "-12s Cooldown" | "+1 Recast" | Sanguine Retreat T3 changed from "-12s Cooldown" to "+1 Recast" |
| 2026-03-06 | canvitality | Rework | Can now zoom in again to continue floating if you let go of the zoom, as long as the total zoom time is still under the max | ||
| 2026-03-06 | float_time_with_umbrellavitality | Buff | 2.5s | 4s | Float time with umbrella increased from 2.5s to 4s |
| 2026-03-06 | stamina_cooldownvitality | Buff | 3.9s | 4 | Stamina cooldown increased from 3.9s to 4.2s |
| 2025-11-21 | love_bites_cooldownability:love_bites | Buff | 7s | 8s | Love Bites cooldown increased from 7s to 8s |
| 2025-11-21 | love_bites_t3_from_1_stamina_to_2ability:love_bites | Rework | -1 Stamina | -2 | Love Bites T3 from -1 Stamina to -2 |
| 2025-11-21 | sanguine_retreatability:sanguine_retreat | Nerf | Sanguine Retreat no longer resets air jump and dash limits | ||
| 2025-11-21 | sanguine_retreat_cooldownability:sanguine_retreat | Buff | 30s | 32s | Sanguine Retreat cooldown increased from 30s to 32s |
| 2025-08-18 | hero_spotlightvitality | Rework | Hero Spotlight |
Hero Balance Predictions
Mina buff/nerf prototype
Forecasts whether Mina is likely to change next patch, using recent patch history and the Mina predictor DuckDB.