Deadlock Hero Balance Predictions
McGinnis buff/nerf predictor prototype
Generated from the McGinnis predictor DuckDB, recent patch history, and a three-stage prediction model.
Prediction Model
McGinnis Buff/Nerf Watch
This page is the hero-side version of the item prediction screen. The target is whether a hero looks more likely to be buffed, nerfed, or left alone in a future patch. This first page is McGinnis-only so the predictors can be reviewed before expanding to every hero.
Best read: this is now a three-stage experiment. It first asks whether McGinnis is likely to change, then which broad mechanic would be selected, then the direction of that selected mechanic. Later stages are conditional and must not be read as standalone certainty.
- Stage 1
- Will McGinnis receive any balance change in the next patch?
- Stage 2
- If McGinnis changes, which mechanic family is most likely to be selected?
- Stage 3
- If that family is selected, does its patch direction look like buff, nerf, or mixed/rework?
- Future learning
- Weekly snapshots preserve hero stats and ability values over time. They are enabled as model features only after changed and unchanged patches both have adequate coverage.
Three-Stage Next-Patch Forecast
1
Will McGinnis change?
15.0%
Estimated chance of any McGinnis balance change. No-change estimate: 85.0%.
Disclaimer: Experimental. This is based on one hero's patch history and has not been proven accurate — Stage 1 and Stage 2 don't yet beat a simple "no change" guess on holdout data. Treat every number on this page as a rough signal, not a confirmed forecast.
Stages 2 and 3: target and direction if McGinnis changes
| Mechanic | Selected if changed | Direction | Buff if selected | Nerf if selected | Mixed/rework if selected | Combined priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy Barrage | 8.2% | Nerf | 17.1% | 51.8% | 31.1% | 1.2% |
| Mini Turret | 7.4% | Mixed Or Rework | 26.6% | 34.1% | 39.4% | 1.1% |
| Weapon | 6.2% | Buff | 40.2% | 21.2% | 38.5% | 0.9% |
| Medicinal Specter | 5.1% | Buff | 45.6% | 24.0% | 30.5% | 0.8% |
| Spirit | 4.0% | Mixed Or Rework | 28.8% | 19.5% | 51.7% | 0.6% |
| Spectral Wall | 3.9% | Mixed Or Rework | 28.8% | 26.6% | 44.6% | 0.6% |
| Vitality | 3.5% | Mixed Or Rework | 38.8% | 20.5% | 40.7% | 0.5% |
Combined priority multiplies Stage 1 by Stage 2 to help sort the watchlist. It is not a calibrated probability that the named mechanic will change.
Validation and Data Readiness
Every stage uses older patches for training and newer patches for testing. The current patch calendar contains 138 update dates through 2026-06-12.
| Stage | Test rows | Balanced accuracy | Macro F1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stage 1 - hero changedWhether McGinnis receives any balance change. | 28 | 50.0% | 0.451 |
| Stage 2 - mechanic selectedWhich mechanic family is selected if McGinnis changes. | 196 | 50.0% | 0.481 |
| Stage 3 - conditional directionBuff, nerf, or mixed/rework after a mechanic is selected. | 3 | 0.0% | 0.000 |
Performance feature gate: withheld. Historical pre-patch win-rate coverage is 0.0%; the required coverage is 80.0%. Performance features are withheld because missingness is too sparse or too strongly associated with whether McGinnis changed.
The weekly collector now stores all hero performance, base stats, and ability properties without overwriting prior snapshots. Once enough unchanged and changed patches have comparable coverage, performance and ability-strength features can enter training without leaking the answer.
McGinnis Patch Changes
68 McGinnis patch-change rows are included from the recent patch window.
| Patch | Predictor | Direction | Before | After | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-12 | fixed_some_rare_cases_where_heavy_barrage_would_stop_workingability:heavy_barrage | Rework | Fixed some rare cases where Heavy Barrage would stop working | ||
| 2026-06-12 | heavy_barrage_dpsability:heavy_barrage | Nerf | 22.5 | 21 | Heavy Barrage DPS reduced from 22.5 to 21 |
| 2026-06-12 | mini_turret_dps_rescaled_from_30_0_39_to_24_0_42_break_even_at_200_spirit_powerability:mini_turret | Rework | 30+0.39 | 24+0 | Mini Turret DPS rescaled from 30+0.39 to 24+0.42 (break even at 200 spirit power) |
| 2026-06-12 | mini_turrets_t3_fire_rateability:mini_turret | Nerf | +30% | +25% | Mini Turrets T3 Fire Rate reduced from +30% to +25% |
| 2026-05-31 | heavy_barrage_rangeability:heavy_barrage | Nerf | 50m | 36m | Heavy Barrage range reduced from 50m to 36m |
| 2026-05-31 | heavy_barrage_t1_dash_slowability:heavy_barrage | Nerf | 30% | 18% (regular slow still 30%) | Heavy Barrage T1 Dash Slow reduced from 30% to 18% (regular slow still 30%) |
| 2026-05-31 | heavy_barrage_t3_damage_per_rocketability:heavy_barrage | Nerf | +18 | +15 | Heavy Barrage T3 Damage Per Rocket reduced from +18 to +15 |
| 2026-05-22 | fixed_heavy_barrage_not_triggering_diviner_s_kevlarability:heavy_barrage | Rework | Fixed Heavy Barrage not triggering Diviner's Kevlar | ||
| 2026-05-22 | medicinal_specter_radiusability:medicinal_specter | Buff | 5.5m | 6m | Medicinal Specter radius increased from 5.5m to 6m |
| 2026-05-22 | bullet_damage_per_boonweapon | Buff | 0.17 | 0 | Bullet damage per boon increased from 0.17 to 0.18 |
| 2026-04-30 | medicinal_specter_durationability:medicinal_specter | Buff | 6s | 6 | Medicinal Specter duration increased from 6s to 6.5s |
| 2026-04-30 | fixed_mini_turrets_being_locked_on_objectives_when_they_were_invulnerableability:mini_turret | Rework | Fixed Mini Turrets being locked on objectives when they were invulnerable | ||
| 2026-04-30 | mini_turrets_bounty_from_80_2_minute_to_40_4_minuteability:mini_turret | Rework | 80 + 2/minute | 40 + 4/minute | Mini Turrets bounty from 80 + 2/minute to 40 + 4/minute |
| 2026-03-06 | heavy_barrage_cooldownability:heavy_barrage | Buff | 165s | 175s | Heavy Barrage cooldown increased from 165s to 175s |
| 2026-03-06 | heavy_barrage_durationability:heavy_barrage | Nerf | 13s | 8s | Heavy Barrage duration reduced from 13s to 8s |
| 2026-03-06 | heavy_barrage_minimum_rangeability:heavy_barrage | Nerf | 9m | 8 | Heavy Barrage minimum range reduced from 9m to 8.5m |
| 2026-03-06 | heavy_barrage_radiusability:heavy_barrage | Nerf | 5m | 4 | Heavy Barrage radius reduced from 5m to 4.5m |
| 2026-03-06 | heavy_barrage_spirit_scalingability:heavy_barrage | Nerf | 0.23 | 0 | Heavy Barrage spirit scaling reduced from 0.23 to 0.2 |
| 2026-03-06 | heavy_barrage_t1_dash_slowability:heavy_barrage | Buff | 20% | 30% | Heavy Barrage T1 dash slow increased from 20% to 30% |
| 2026-03-06 | heavy_barrage_t1_move_slowability:heavy_barrage | Nerf | 40% | 30% | Heavy Barrage T1 move slow reduced from 40% to 30% |
| 2026-03-06 | heavy_barrage_t1_slow_durationability:heavy_barrage | Nerf | 1.5s | 1s | Heavy Barrage T1 slow duration reduced from 1.5s to 1s |
| 2026-03-06 | heavy_barrage_t1_slow_durationability:heavy_barrage | Nerf | 2s | 1 | Heavy Barrage T1 slow duration reduced from 2s to 1.5s |
| 2026-03-06 | heavy_barrage_t1_tooltip_updated_to_clarify_that_it_also_reduces_dash_distanceability:heavy_barrage | Rework | Heavy Barrage T1 tooltip updated to clarify that it also reduces dash distance | ||
| 2026-03-06 | heavy_barrage_t2ability:heavy_barrage | Buff | Heavy Barrage T2 now also increases duration by 6s | ||
| 2026-03-06 | heavy_barrage_t2_cooldown_reductionability:heavy_barrage | Buff | -45s | -55s | Heavy Barrage T2 cooldown reduction increased from -45s to -55s |
| 2026-03-06 | heavy_barrage_t3ability:heavy_barrage | Buff | Heavy Barrage T3 now also increases explosion radius by 2m | ||
| 2026-03-06 | heavy_barrage_t3_damageability:heavy_barrage | Buff | +21 | +25 | Heavy Barrage T3 damage increased from +21 to +25 |
| 2026-03-06 | heavy_barrage_t3_damageability:heavy_barrage | Nerf | +25 | +22 | Heavy Barrage T3 damage reduced from +25 to +22 |
| 2026-03-06 | heavy_barrage_t3_dpsability:heavy_barrage | Nerf | 22 | 18 | Heavy Barrage T3 DPS reduced from 22 to 18 |
| 2026-03-06 | heavy_barrage_t3_spirit_scalingability:heavy_barrage | Nerf | +0.25 | +0 | Heavy Barrage T3 spirit scaling reduced from +0.25 to +0.2 |
| 2026-03-06 | heavy_barrage_t3_spirit_scalingability:heavy_barrage | Nerf | 0.2 | 0 | Heavy Barrage T3 spirit scaling reduced from 0.2 to 0.16 |
| 2026-03-06 | heavy_barrage_t3_spirit_scaling_from_0_2_to_0_25ability:heavy_barrage | Rework | +0.2 | +0 | Heavy Barrage T3 spirit scaling from +0.2 to +0.25 |
| 2026-03-06 | medicinal_specterability:medicinal_specter | Nerf | Medicinal Specter no longer provides +15% Stamina Recovery | ||
| 2026-03-06 | medicinal_specter_cooldownability:medicinal_specter | Buff | 48s | 50s | Medicinal Specter cooldown increased from 48s to 50s |
| 2026-03-06 | medicinal_specter_durationability:medicinal_specter | Nerf | Medicinal Specter duration no longer scales with spirit power | ||
| 2026-03-06 | medicinal_specter_radiusability:medicinal_specter | Nerf | Medicinal Specter radius no longer scales with spirit power | ||
| 2026-03-06 | medicinal_specter_radiusability:medicinal_specter | Buff | 5m | 5 | Medicinal Specter radius increased from 5m to 5.5m |
| 2026-03-06 | medicinal_specter_regenability:medicinal_specter | Rework | Medicinal Specter regen now scales with spirit power (+0.3) | ||
| 2026-03-06 | medicinal_specter_t1ability:medicinal_specter | Rework | "+30% Fire Rate" | "+40% Spirit Resistance" | Medicinal Specter T1 changed from "+30% Fire Rate" to "+40% Spirit Resistance" |
| 2026-03-06 | medicinal_specter_t2ability:medicinal_specter | Buff | Medicinal Specter T2 now also increases Stamina Recovery by +100% | ||
| 2026-03-06 | medicinal_specter_t2ability:medicinal_specter | Buff | -17s Cooldown | -20s | Medicinal Specter T2 increased from -17s Cooldown to -20s |
| 2026-03-06 | medicinal_specter_t3ability:medicinal_specter | Buff | Medicinal Specter T3 now also increases radius by 3m | ||
| 2026-03-06 | medicinal_specter_t3ability:medicinal_specter | Buff | Medicinal Specter T3 now also increases duration by 1s | ||
| 2026-03-06 | medicinal_specter_t3_regenability:medicinal_specter | Nerf | 2.5% Max HP | 2% | Medicinal Specter T3 regen reduced from 2.5% Max HP to 2% |
| 2026-03-06 | mini_turret_attack_rangeability:mini_turret | Buff | 25m | 30m | Mini Turret attack range increased from 25m to 30m |
| 2026-03-06 | mini_turret_base_health_and_health_growthability:mini_turret | Nerf | Mini Turret base health and health growth reduced by 40% | ||
| 2026-03-06 | mini_turret_durationability:mini_turret | Buff | 24s | 35s | Mini Turret duration increased from 24s to 35s |
| 2026-03-06 | mini_turret_on_the_minimapability:mini_turret | Rework | Mini Turret on the minimap now flash/turn red when they are attacking | ||
| 2026-03-06 | mini_turret_t1ability:mini_turret | Rework | "Turrets apply 25% slow" | "+10m Attack Range and +10 DPS" | Mini Turret T1 changed from "Turrets apply 25% slow" to "+10m Attack Range and +10 DPS" |
| 2026-03-06 | mini_turret_t2ability:mini_turret | Rework | "+10m Attack Range and + 10% Fire Rate" | "+2 Charges" | Mini Turret T2 changed from "+10m Attack Range and + 10% Fire Rate" to "+2 Charges" |
| 2026-03-06 | mini_turret_t3ability:mini_turret | Rework | "+38 Turret DPS and +14s Turret Lifetime" | "+30% Turret Fire Rate and +12s Turret Lifetime" | Mini Turret T3 changed from "+38 Turret DPS and +14s Turret Lifetime" to "+30% Turret Fire Rate and +12s Turret Lifetime" |
| 2026-03-06 | mini_turret_tracking_angle_and_projectile_speeds_significantly_improvedability:mini_turret | Buff | Mini Turret tracking, angle and projectile speeds significantly improved | ||
| 2026-03-06 | mini_turretsability:mini_turret | Rework | Mini Turrets now have 35% melee resist | ||
| 2026-03-06 | mini_turrets_initial_fading_resist_start_valueability:mini_turret | Buff | 60% | 80% | Mini Turrets initial fading resist start value increased from 60% to 80% |
| 2026-03-06 | spectral_wall_applies_it_s_slow_to_enemies_it_passes_through_while_being_summonedability:spectral_wall | Rework | Spectral Wall applies it's slow to enemies it passes through while being summoned | ||
| 2026-03-06 | spectral_wall_durationability:spectral_wall | Buff | 4.5s | 5s | Spectral Wall duration increased from 4.5s to 5s |
| 2026-03-06 | spectral_wall_min_rangeability:spectral_wall | Nerf | 6m | 5m | Spectral Wall min range reduced from 6m to 5m |
| 2026-03-06 | spectral_wall_segments_canability:spectral_wall | Rework | Spectral Wall segments can now be destroyed with 2 heavy melee hits (destroys an individual segment) | ||
| 2026-03-06 | spectral_wall_t1ability:spectral_wall | Nerf | Spectral Wall T1 no longer drains 1 stamina | ||
| 2026-03-06 | spectral_wall_t1_damage_ampability:spectral_wall | Buff | 15% | 20% | Spectral Wall T1 Damage Amp increased from 15% to 20% |
| 2026-03-06 | spectral_wall_t2_also_increases_wall_duration_by_2sability:spectral_wall | Rework | Spectral Wall T2 also increases wall duration by +2s | ||
| 2026-03-06 | spectral_wall_t3ability:spectral_wall | Rework | "0.75s Stun on Impact" | "Creates 2 Turrets for 8s and increases slow by 30%" (creates them on the side facing you spread along the wall) | Spectral Wall T3 changed from "0.75s Stun on Impact" to "Creates 2 Turrets for 8s and increases slow by 30%" (creates them on the side facing you spread along the wall) |
| 2026-03-06 | spectral_wall_that_is_midcast_willability:spectral_wall | Rework | Spectral Wall that is midcast will now fire when you are interrupted, rather than continue to expand outward | ||
| 2026-03-06 | stamina_speed_bucket_3_to_2vitality | Rework | Stamina speed bucket 3 to 2 | ||
| 2026-03-06 | bullet_damageweapon | Buff | 6.0+0.15/boon | 6 | Bullet damage increased from 6.0+0.15/boon to 6.2+0.16/boon |
| 2026-03-06 | bullet_damageweapon | Nerf | 6.72 + 0.2/boon | 6 | Bullet damage reduced from 6.72 + 0.2/boon to 6.0 + 0.16/boon |
| 2025-11-21 | mini_turrets_health_per_boonability:mini_turret | Buff | 10 | 13 | Mini Turrets health per boon increased from 10 to 13 |
| 2025-11-21 | spectral_wall_speedability:spectral_wall | Buff | Spectral Wall speed increased by 10% |
Hero Balance Predictions
McGinnis buff/nerf prototype
Forecasts whether McGinnis is likely to change next patch, using recent patch history and the McGinnis predictor DuckDB.