Deadlock Hero Balance Predictions
Lash buff/nerf predictor prototype
Generated from the Lash predictor DuckDB, recent patch history, and a three-stage prediction model.
Prediction Model
Lash Buff/Nerf Watch
This page is the hero-side version of the item prediction screen. The target is whether a hero looks more likely to be buffed, nerfed, or left alone in a future patch. This first page is Lash-only so the predictors can be reviewed before expanding to every hero.
Best read: this is now a three-stage experiment. It first asks whether Lash is likely to change, then which broad mechanic would be selected, then the direction of that selected mechanic. Later stages are conditional and must not be read as standalone certainty.
- Stage 1
- Will Lash receive any balance change in the next patch?
- Stage 2
- If Lash changes, which mechanic family is most likely to be selected?
- Stage 3
- If that family is selected, does its patch direction look like buff, nerf, or mixed/rework?
- Future learning
- Weekly snapshots preserve hero stats and ability values over time. They are enabled as model features only after changed and unchanged patches both have adequate coverage.
Three-Stage Next-Patch Forecast
1
Will Lash change?
10.1%
Estimated chance of any Lash balance change. No-change estimate: 89.9%.
Disclaimer: Experimental. This is based on one hero's patch history and has not been proven accurate — Stage 1 and Stage 2 don't yet beat a simple "no change" guess on holdout data. Treat every number on this page as a rough signal, not a confirmed forecast.
Stages 2 and 3: target and direction if Lash changes
| Mechanic | Selected if changed | Direction | Buff if selected | Nerf if selected | Mixed/rework if selected | Combined priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weapon | 3.1% | Mixed Or Rework | 29.8% | 10.7% | 59.5% | 0.3% |
| Spirit | 2.8% | Buff | 41.1% | 36.6% | 22.3% | 0.3% |
| Grapple | 1.5% | Mixed Or Rework | 31.8% | 9.3% | 58.9% | 0.2% |
| Vitality | 1.4% | Mixed Or Rework | 34.9% | 17.6% | 47.5% | 0.1% |
| Ground Strike | 1.3% | Buff | 44.2% | 14.1% | 41.7% | 0.1% |
| Death Slam | 1.1% | Mixed Or Rework | 31.2% | 10.6% | 58.2% | 0.1% |
| Flog | 0.9% | Mixed Or Rework | 27.3% | 9.1% | 63.6% | 0.1% |
Combined priority multiplies Stage 1 by Stage 2 to help sort the watchlist. It is not a calibrated probability that the named mechanic will change.
Validation and Data Readiness
Every stage uses older patches for training and newer patches for testing. The current patch calendar contains 138 update dates through 2026-06-12.
| Stage | Test rows | Balanced accuracy | Macro F1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stage 1 - hero changedWhether Lash receives any balance change. | 28 | 50.0% | 0.481 |
| Stage 2 - mechanic selectedWhich mechanic family is selected if Lash changes. | 196 | 50.0% | 0.490 |
| Stage 3 - conditional directionBuff, nerf, or mixed/rework after a mechanic is selected. | 3 | 33.3% | 0.167 |
Performance feature gate: withheld. Historical pre-patch win-rate coverage is 0.0%; the required coverage is 80.0%. Performance features are withheld because missingness is too sparse or too strongly associated with whether Lash changed.
The weekly collector now stores all hero performance, base stats, and ability properties without overwriting prior snapshots. Once enough unchanged and changed patches have comparable coverage, performance and ability-strength features can enter training without leaking the answer.
Lash Patch Changes
32 Lash patch-change rows are included from the recent patch window.
| Patch | Predictor | Direction | Before | After | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-22 | grapple_t2_bonus_damageability:grapple | Nerf | Grapple T2 bonus damage no longer stacks with itself, but instead refreshes the duration | ||
| 2026-05-22 | grapple_t3ability:grapple | Buff | Grapple T3 now also grants +1 Charge | ||
| 2026-05-22 | ground_strike_damage_per_meter_spirit_scalingability:ground_strike | Buff | 0.0372 | 0 | Ground Strike damage per meter spirit scaling increased from 0.0372 to 0.04 |
| 2026-05-22 | bullet_damage_per_boonweapon | Nerf | 0.341 | 0 | Bullet damage per boon reduced from 0.341 to 0.31 |
| 2026-03-06 | death_slam_cooldownability:death_slam | Buff | 145s | 150s | Death Slam cooldown increased from 145s to 150s |
| 2026-03-06 | death_slam_t1_throw_distanceability:death_slam | Buff | +8m | +12m | Death Slam T1 throw distance increased from +8m to +12m |
| 2026-03-06 | death_slam_t2_cooldownability:death_slam | Buff | -25s | -40s | Death Slam T2 cooldown increased from -25s to -40s |
| 2026-03-06 | death_slam_t3ability:death_slam | Buff | Death Slam T3 now also increases cast range by +10m | ||
| 2026-03-06 | death_slam_t3_cast_rangeability:death_slam | Nerf | +10m | +6m | Death Slam T3 cast range reduced from +10m to +6m |
| 2026-03-06 | death_slam_t3_stunability:death_slam | Buff | 1s | 1 | Death Slam T3 stun increased from 1s to 1.2s |
| 2026-03-06 | death_slam_throw_distanceability:death_slam | Nerf | Death Slam throw distance no longer scales with Spirit Power (was 0.3) | ||
| 2026-03-06 | death_slam_throw_rangeability:death_slam | Buff | 12m | 14m | Death Slam throw range increased from 12m to 14m |
| 2026-03-06 | death_slam_throw_rangeability:death_slam | Rework | Death Slam throw range now scales with spirit power (+0.14) | ||
| 2026-03-06 | fixed_death_slam_camera_sometimes_being_obstructedability:death_slam | Rework | Fixed Death Slam camera sometimes being obstructed | ||
| 2026-03-06 | flog_attack_angleability:flog | Nerf | Flog Attack Angle no longer increases with Spirit Power | ||
| 2026-03-06 | flog_cooldownability:flog | Buff | 24s | 26s | Flog cooldown increased from 24s to 26s |
| 2026-03-06 | flog_heal_vs_heroesability:flog | Nerf | 60% | 50% | Flog heal vs heroes reduced from 60% to 50% |
| 2026-03-06 | flog_t2ability:flog | Buff | -12s Cooldown | -16s | Flog T2 increased from -12s Cooldown to -16s |
| 2026-03-06 | flog_t2ability:flog | Buff | Flog T2 now also reduces Fire Rate by 30% | ||
| 2026-03-06 | flog_t3ability:flog | Nerf | Flog T3 no longer reduces Fire Rate | ||
| 2026-03-06 | flog_t3ability:flog | Buff | Flog T3 now also increases Attack Angle by 40 and Heal by +20% | ||
| 2026-03-06 | flog_t3_damageability:flog | Nerf | +86 | +80 | Flog T3 damage reduced from +86 to +80 |
| 2026-03-06 | grapple_t2_weapon_damageability:grapple | Buff | +6 | +7 | Grapple T2 weapon damage increased from +6 to +7 |
| 2026-03-06 | grapple_t3ability:grapple | Rework | "+20% Fire Rate" | "+60% Air Control and +1 Stamina on Usage" | Grapple T3 changed from "+20% Fire Rate" to "+60% Air Control and +1 Stamina on Usage" |
| 2026-03-06 | fixed_ground_strike_against_players_brought_down_from_mid_air_not_doing_damageability:ground_strike | Rework | Fixed Ground Strike against players brought down from mid air not doing damage | ||
| 2026-03-06 | increased_sparklesvitality | Buff | Increased Sparkles | ||
| 2025-11-21 | death_slam_cooldownability:death_slam | Nerf | 155s | 145s | Death Slam cooldown reduced from 155s to 145s |
| 2025-11-21 | flog_cooldownability:flog | Nerf | 26s | 24 | Flog cooldown reduced from 26s to 24 |
| 2025-11-21 | flog_damageability:flog | Buff | 60 | 65 | Flog damage increased from 60 to 65 |
| 2025-11-21 | flog_heal_vs_heroesability:flog | Buff | 50% | 60% | Flog heal vs heroes increased from 50% to 60% |
| 2025-11-21 | flog_t2ability:flog | Buff | -14s | -12s | Flog T2 increased from -14s to -12s |
| 2025-11-21 | grapple_cooldownability:grapple | Nerf | 42s | 35s | Grapple cooldown reduced from 42s to 35s |
Hero Balance Predictions
Lash buff/nerf prototype
Forecasts whether Lash is likely to change next patch, using recent patch history and the Lash predictor DuckDB.