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Prediction Model

Lash Buff/Nerf Watch

This page is the hero-side version of the item prediction screen. The target is whether a hero looks more likely to be buffed, nerfed, or left alone in a future patch. This first page is Lash-only so the predictors can be reviewed before expanding to every hero.

Best read: this is now a three-stage experiment. It first asks whether Lash is likely to change, then which broad mechanic would be selected, then the direction of that selected mechanic. Later stages are conditional and must not be read as standalone certainty.

Stage 1: Will Lash receive any balance change in the next patch?
Stage 2: If Lash changes, which mechanic family is most likely to be selected?
Stage 3: If that family is selected, does its patch direction look like buff, nerf, or mixed/rework?
Future learning: Weekly snapshots preserve hero stats and ability values over time. They are enabled as model features only after changed and unchanged patches both have adequate coverage.

Three-Stage Next-Patch Forecast

1

Will Lash change?

40.7%

Estimated chance of any Lash balance change. No-change estimate: 59.3%.

Disclaimer: Experimental. This is based on one hero's patch history and has not been proven accurate — Stage 1 and Stage 2 don't yet beat a simple "no change" guess on holdout data. Treat every number on this page as a rough signal, not a confirmed forecast.

Stages 2 and 3: target and direction if Lash changes

Mechanic	Selected if changed	Direction	Buff if selected	Nerf if selected	Mixed/rework if selected	Combined priority
Vitality	35.6%	Nerf	32.1%	50.5%	17.4%	14.5%
Grapple	29.4%	Nerf	32.1%	47.3%	20.6%	12.0%
Ground Strike	28.0%	Nerf	38.0%	44.9%	17.2%	11.4%
Flog	24.6%	Buff	40.9%	30.4%	28.7%	10.0%
Weapon	19.1%	Nerf	27.4%	46.5%	26.1%	7.8%
Death Slam	13.8%	Nerf	38.1%	40.6%	21.3%	5.6%
Spirit	6.0%	Nerf	26.5%	59.4%	14.2%	2.4%

Combined priority multiplies Stage 1 by Stage 2 to help sort the watchlist. It is not a calibrated probability that the named mechanic will change.

Validation and Data Readiness

Every stage uses older patches for training and newer patches for testing. The current patch calendar contains 151 update dates through 2026-09-16.

Stage	Test rows	Balanced accuracy	Macro F1
Stage 1 - hero changedWhether Lash receives any balance change.	31	50.0%	0.466
Stage 2 - mechanic selectedWhich mechanic family is selected if Lash changes.	217	50.0%	0.488
Stage 3 - conditional directionBuff, nerf, or mixed/rework after a mechanic is selected.	5	44.4%	0.333

Performance feature gate: withheld. Historical pre-patch win-rate coverage is 8.6%; the required coverage is 80.0%. Performance features are withheld because missingness is too sparse or too strongly associated with whether Lash changed.

The weekly collector now stores all hero performance, base stats, and ability properties without overwriting prior snapshots. Once enough unchanged and changed patches have comparable coverage, performance and ability-strength features can enter training without leaking the answer.

Lash Patch Changes

43 Lash patch-change rows are included from the recent patch window.

Patch	Predictor	Direction	Before	After	Notes
2026-09-16	flog_angleability:flog	Buff	38	40	Flog angle increased from 38 to 40
2026-09-16	flog_healability:flog	Nerf	50%	40%	Flog heal reduced from 50% to 40%
2026-09-16	flog_t3ability:flog	Nerf	+40 degrees angle	+25	Flog T3 reduced from +40 degrees angle to +25
2026-09-16	flog_t3ability:flog	Nerf	+20% heal	+15%	Flog T3 reduced from +20% heal to +15%
2026-09-16	grapple_t2_weapon_damage_buff_durationability:grapple	Nerf	10s	6s	Grapple T2 Weapon Damage buff duration reduced from 10s to 6s
2026-09-16	ground_strike_t3_damage_per_meter_scalingability:ground_strike	Buff	110%	120%	Ground Strike T3 damage per meter scaling increased from 110% to 120%
2026-09-16	ground_strike_t3_spirit_scalingability:ground_strike	Buff	+0.03	+0	Ground Strike T3 spirit scaling increased from +0.03 to +0.04
2026-09-16	gun_falloff_rangevitality	Nerf	18m->54m	16m->48m	Gun falloff range reduced from 18m->54m to 16m->48m
2026-08-12	falloff_rangevitality	Nerf	20m->58m	18m->54m	Falloff range reduced from 20m->58m to 18m->54m
2026-06-30	flog_angleability:flog	Buff	30	38	Flog angle increased from 30 to 38
2026-06-30	ground_strike_cooldownability:ground_strike	Nerf	21s	18s	Ground Strike cooldown reduced from 21s to 18s
2026-05-22	grapple_t2_bonus_damageability:grapple	Nerf			Grapple T2 bonus damage no longer stacks with itself, but instead refreshes the duration
2026-05-22	grapple_t3ability:grapple	Buff			Grapple T3 now also grants +1 Charge
2026-05-22	ground_strike_damage_per_meter_spirit_scalingability:ground_strike	Buff	0.0372	0	Ground Strike damage per meter spirit scaling increased from 0.0372 to 0.04
2026-05-22	bullet_damage_per_boonweapon	Nerf	0.341	0	Bullet damage per boon reduced from 0.341 to 0.31
2026-03-06	death_slam_cooldownability:death_slam	Buff	145s	150s	Death Slam cooldown increased from 145s to 150s
2026-03-06	death_slam_t1_throw_distanceability:death_slam	Buff	+8m	+12m	Death Slam T1 throw distance increased from +8m to +12m
2026-03-06	death_slam_t2_cooldownability:death_slam	Buff	-25s	-40s	Death Slam T2 cooldown increased from -25s to -40s
2026-03-06	death_slam_t3ability:death_slam	Buff			Death Slam T3 now also increases cast range by +10m
2026-03-06	death_slam_t3_cast_rangeability:death_slam	Nerf	+10m	+6m	Death Slam T3 cast range reduced from +10m to +6m
2026-03-06	death_slam_t3_stunability:death_slam	Buff	1s	1	Death Slam T3 stun increased from 1s to 1.2s
2026-03-06	death_slam_throw_distanceability:death_slam	Nerf			Death Slam throw distance no longer scales with Spirit Power (was 0.3)
2026-03-06	death_slam_throw_rangeability:death_slam	Buff	12m	14m	Death Slam throw range increased from 12m to 14m
2026-03-06	death_slam_throw_rangeability:death_slam	Rework			Death Slam throw range now scales with spirit power (+0.14)
2026-03-06	fixed_death_slam_camera_sometimes_being_obstructedability:death_slam	Rework			Fixed Death Slam camera sometimes being obstructed
2026-03-06	flog_attack_angleability:flog	Nerf			Flog Attack Angle no longer increases with Spirit Power
2026-03-06	flog_cooldownability:flog	Buff	24s	26s	Flog cooldown increased from 24s to 26s
2026-03-06	flog_heal_vs_heroesability:flog	Nerf	60%	50%	Flog heal vs heroes reduced from 60% to 50%
2026-03-06	flog_t2ability:flog	Buff	-12s Cooldown	-16s	Flog T2 increased from -12s Cooldown to -16s
2026-03-06	flog_t2ability:flog	Buff			Flog T2 now also reduces Fire Rate by 30%
2026-03-06	flog_t3ability:flog	Nerf			Flog T3 no longer reduces Fire Rate
2026-03-06	flog_t3ability:flog	Buff			Flog T3 now also increases Attack Angle by 40 and Heal by +20%
2026-03-06	flog_t3_damageability:flog	Nerf	+86	+80	Flog T3 damage reduced from +86 to +80
2026-03-06	grapple_t2_weapon_damageability:grapple	Buff	+6	+7	Grapple T2 weapon damage increased from +6 to +7
2026-03-06	grapple_t3ability:grapple	Rework	"+20% Fire Rate"	"+60% Air Control and +1 Stamina on Usage"	Grapple T3 changed from "+20% Fire Rate" to "+60% Air Control and +1 Stamina on Usage"
2026-03-06	fixed_ground_strike_against_players_brought_down_from_mid_air_not_doing_damageability:ground_strike	Rework			Fixed Ground Strike against players brought down from mid air not doing damage
2026-03-06	increased_sparklesvitality	Buff			Increased Sparkles
2025-11-21	death_slam_cooldownability:death_slam	Nerf	155s	145s	Death Slam cooldown reduced from 155s to 145s
2025-11-21	flog_cooldownability:flog	Nerf	26s	24	Flog cooldown reduced from 26s to 24
2025-11-21	flog_damageability:flog	Buff	60	65	Flog damage increased from 60 to 65
2025-11-21	flog_heal_vs_heroesability:flog	Buff	50%	60%	Flog heal vs heroes increased from 50% to 60%
2025-11-21	flog_t2ability:flog	Buff	-14s	-12s	Flog T2 increased from -14s to -12s
2025-11-21	grapple_cooldownability:grapple	Nerf	42s	35s	Grapple cooldown reduced from 42s to 35s