Cheer Up Emo Nerd

Prediction Model

Lady Geist Buff/Nerf Watch

This page is the hero-side version of the item prediction screen. The target is whether a hero looks more likely to be buffed, nerfed, or left alone in a future patch. This first page is Lady Geist-only so the predictors can be reviewed before expanding to every hero.

Best read: this is now a three-stage experiment. It first asks whether Lady Geist is likely to change, then which broad mechanic would be selected, then the direction of that selected mechanic. Later stages are conditional and must not be read as standalone certainty.

Stage 1: Will Lady Geist receive any balance change in the next patch?
Stage 2: If Lady Geist changes, which mechanic family is most likely to be selected?
Stage 3: If that family is selected, does its patch direction look like buff, nerf, or mixed/rework?
Future learning: Weekly snapshots preserve hero stats and ability values over time. They are enabled as model features only after changed and unchanged patches both have adequate coverage.

Three-Stage Next-Patch Forecast

1

Will Lady Geist change?

6.8%

Estimated chance of any Lady Geist balance change. No-change estimate: 93.2%.

Disclaimer: Experimental. This is based on one hero's patch history and has not been proven accurate — Stage 1 and Stage 2 don't yet beat a simple "no change" guess on holdout data. Treat every number on this page as a rough signal, not a confirmed forecast.

Stages 2 and 3: target and direction if Lady Geist changes

Mechanic	Selected if changed	Direction	Buff if selected	Nerf if selected	Mixed/rework if selected	Combined priority
Life Drain	5.7%	Mixed Or Rework	22.6%	31.9%	45.5%	0.4%
Essence Bomb	1.9%	Mixed Or Rework	23.8%	29.9%	46.2%	0.1%
Vitality	1.7%	Mixed Or Rework	28.4%	17.3%	54.3%	0.1%
Spirit	1.4%	Mixed Or Rework	28.4%	17.3%	54.3%	0.1%
Weapon	1.2%	Mixed Or Rework	28.4%	17.3%	54.3%	0.1%
Soul Exchange	1.1%	Mixed Or Rework	26.5%	28.6%	44.9%	0.1%
Malice	0.8%	Mixed Or Rework	28.4%	17.3%	54.3%	0.1%

Combined priority multiplies Stage 1 by Stage 2 to help sort the watchlist. It is not a calibrated probability that the named mechanic will change.

Validation and Data Readiness

Every stage uses older patches for training and newer patches for testing. The current patch calendar contains 138 update dates through 2026-06-12.

Stage	Test rows	Balanced accuracy	Macro F1
Stage 1 - hero changedWhether Lady Geist receives any balance change.	28	50.0%	0.481
Stage 2 - mechanic selectedWhich mechanic family is selected if Lady Geist changes.	196	50.0%	0.495
Stage 3 - conditional directionBuff, nerf, or mixed/rework after a mechanic is selected.	1	0.0%	0.000

Performance feature gate: withheld. Historical pre-patch win-rate coverage is 0.0%; the required coverage is 80.0%. Performance features are withheld because missingness is too sparse or too strongly associated with whether Lady Geist changed.

The weekly collector now stores all hero performance, base stats, and ability properties without overwriting prior snapshots. Once enough unchanged and changed patches have comparable coverage, performance and ability-strength features can enter training without leaking the answer.

Lady Geist Patch Changes

18 Lady Geist patch-change rows are included from the recent patch window.

Patch	Predictor	Direction	Before	After	Notes
2026-04-30	life_drain_healability:life_drain	Nerf	80%	75%	Life Drain heal reduced from 80% to 75%
2026-03-06	essence_bomb_cooldownability:essence_bomb	Nerf	14.5s	14s	Essence Bomb cooldown reduced from 14.5s to 14s
2026-03-06	essence_bomb_radiusability:essence_bomb	Nerf	9m	7m	Essence Bomb radius reduced from 9m to 7m
2026-03-06	essence_bomb_self_damageability:essence_bomb	Rework	30 + 1.8 scaling	30% of the damage (base is 90 + 1	Essence Bomb self damage changed from 30 + 1.8 scaling to 30% of the damage (base is 90 + 1.2 scaling)
2026-03-06	essence_bomb_t1ability:essence_bomb	Buff	-4s	-5s	Essence Bomb T1 increased from -4s to -5s
2026-03-06	essence_bomb_t2_also_increases_radius_by_2mability:essence_bomb	Rework			Essence Bomb T2 also increases radius by +2m
2026-03-06	life_drain_break_rangeability:life_drain	Nerf	30m	28m	Life Drain break range reduced from 30m to 28m
2026-03-06	life_drain_cooldownability:life_drain	Buff	30s	34s	Life Drain cooldown increased from 30s to 34s
2026-03-06	life_drain_t1_dpsability:life_drain	Buff	+16.2	+18	Life Drain T1 DPS increased from +16.2 to +18
2026-03-06	life_drain_t2_durationability:life_drain	Buff	+2s	+2	Life Drain T2 duration increased from +2s to +2.5s
2026-03-06	life_drain_t3ability:life_drain	Buff			Life Drain T3 now also increases spirit scaling by +0.3
2026-03-06	life_drain_t3_chargesability:life_drain	Buff	+1	+2	Life Drain T3 charges increased from +1 to +2
2026-03-06	soul_exchange_cast_timeability:soul_exchange	Nerf	0.2s	0	Soul Exchange cast time reduced from 0.2s to 0.1s
2026-03-06	soul_exchange_post_cast_hold_timeability:soul_exchange	Nerf	0.7s	0	Soul Exchange post cast hold time reduced from 0.7s to 0.2s
2026-03-06	soul_exchange_t1_cooldownability:soul_exchange	Buff	-35s	-60s	Soul Exchange T1 cooldown increased from -35s to -60s
2026-03-06	soul_exchange_t2ability:soul_exchange	Rework	"On Cast: +35% Fire Rate for 8s"	"Silences enemies within 25m for 3s"	Soul Exchange T2 changed from "On Cast: +35% Fire Rate for 8s" to "Silences enemies within 25m for 3s"
2026-03-06	soul_exchange_t3ability:soul_exchange	Rework	"Silences enemies within 25m for 3s"	"On Cast: +60 Spirit Power, +40% Fire Rate and +50% Spirit Resistance for 8s"	Soul Exchange T3 changed from "Silences enemies within 25m for 3s" to "On Cast: +60 Spirit Power, +40% Fire Rate and +50% Spirit Resistance for 8s"
2025-11-21	soul_exchange_t3_radiusability:soul_exchange	Buff	15m	25m	Soul Exchange T3 radius increased from 15m to 25m