Deadlock Hero Balance Predictions
Lady Geist buff/nerf predictor prototype
Generated from the Lady Geist predictor DuckDB, recent patch history, and a three-stage prediction model.
Prediction Model
Lady Geist Buff/Nerf Watch
This page is the hero-side version of the item prediction screen. The target is whether a hero looks more likely to be buffed, nerfed, or left alone in a future patch. This first page is Lady Geist-only so the predictors can be reviewed before expanding to every hero.
Best read: this is now a three-stage experiment. It first asks whether Lady Geist is likely to change, then which broad mechanic would be selected, then the direction of that selected mechanic. Later stages are conditional and must not be read as standalone certainty.
- Stage 1
- Will Lady Geist receive any balance change in the next patch?
- Stage 2
- If Lady Geist changes, which mechanic family is most likely to be selected?
- Stage 3
- If that family is selected, does its patch direction look like buff, nerf, or mixed/rework?
- Future learning
- Weekly snapshots preserve hero stats and ability values over time. They are enabled as model features only after changed and unchanged patches both have adequate coverage.
Three-Stage Next-Patch Forecast
1
Will Lady Geist change?
17.0%
Estimated chance of any Lady Geist balance change. No-change estimate: 83.0%.
Disclaimer: Experimental. This is based on one hero's patch history and has not been proven accurate — Stage 1 and Stage 2 don't yet beat a simple "no change" guess on holdout data. Treat every number on this page as a rough signal, not a confirmed forecast.
Stages 2 and 3: target and direction if Lady Geist changes
| Mechanic | Selected if changed | Direction | Buff if selected | Nerf if selected | Mixed/rework if selected | Combined priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Life Drain | 6.7% | Mixed Or Rework | 8.4% | 40.4% | 51.2% | 1.1% |
| Vitality | 6.3% | Mixed Or Rework | 22.5% | 16.4% | 61.1% | 1.1% |
| Malice | 6.3% | Mixed Or Rework | 13.2% | 32.4% | 54.4% | 1.1% |
| Spirit | 5.2% | Mixed Or Rework | 22.5% | 16.4% | 61.1% | 0.9% |
| Weapon | 5.0% | Mixed Or Rework | 22.5% | 16.4% | 61.1% | 0.9% |
| Soul Exchange | 1.8% | Mixed Or Rework | 17.7% | 29.5% | 52.8% | 0.3% |
| Essence Bomb | 1.1% | Mixed Or Rework | 13.7% | 30.5% | 55.9% | 0.2% |
Combined priority multiplies Stage 1 by Stage 2 to help sort the watchlist. It is not a calibrated probability that the named mechanic will change.
Validation and Data Readiness
Every stage uses older patches for training and newer patches for testing. The current patch calendar contains 147 update dates through 2026-08-02.
| Stage | Test rows | Balanced accuracy | Macro F1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stage 1 - hero changedWhether Lady Geist receives any balance change. | 30 | 50.0% | 0.474 |
| Stage 2 - mechanic selectedWhich mechanic family is selected if Lady Geist changes. | 210 | 50.0% | 0.493 |
| Stage 3 - conditional directionBuff, nerf, or mixed/rework after a mechanic is selected. | 2 | 100.0% | 1.000 |
Performance feature gate: withheld. Historical pre-patch win-rate coverage is 6.1%; the required coverage is 80.0%. Performance features are withheld because missingness is too sparse or too strongly associated with whether Lady Geist changed.
The weekly collector now stores all hero performance, base stats, and ability properties without overwriting prior snapshots. Once enough unchanged and changed patches have comparable coverage, performance and ability-strength features can enter training without leaking the answer.
Lady Geist Patch Changes
22 Lady Geist patch-change rows are included from the recent patch window.
| Patch | Predictor | Direction | Before | After | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | life_drainability:life_drain | Rework | 75% Damage | Heal to 100% | Life Drain changed from 75% Damage to Heal to 100% |
| 2026-07-28 | life_drain_dpsability:life_drain | Nerf | Life Drain DPS reduced to provide the same effective heal as before but with less DPS | ||
| 2026-07-28 | malice_damage_amplificationability:malice | Nerf | 8% | 7% | Malice Damage amplification reduced from 8% to 7% |
| 2026-07-28 | malice_t3ability:malice | Buff | +7% Damage Amp | +8% | Malice T3 increased from +7% Damage Amp to +8% |
| 2026-04-30 | life_drain_healability:life_drain | Nerf | 80% | 75% | Life Drain heal reduced from 80% to 75% |
| 2026-03-06 | essence_bomb_cooldownability:essence_bomb | Nerf | 14.5s | 14s | Essence Bomb cooldown reduced from 14.5s to 14s |
| 2026-03-06 | essence_bomb_radiusability:essence_bomb | Nerf | 9m | 7m | Essence Bomb radius reduced from 9m to 7m |
| 2026-03-06 | essence_bomb_self_damageability:essence_bomb | Rework | 30 + 1.8 scaling | 30% of the damage (base is 90 + 1 | Essence Bomb self damage changed from 30 + 1.8 scaling to 30% of the damage (base is 90 + 1.2 scaling) |
| 2026-03-06 | essence_bomb_t1ability:essence_bomb | Buff | -4s | -5s | Essence Bomb T1 increased from -4s to -5s |
| 2026-03-06 | essence_bomb_t2_also_increases_radius_by_2mability:essence_bomb | Rework | Essence Bomb T2 also increases radius by +2m | ||
| 2026-03-06 | life_drain_break_rangeability:life_drain | Nerf | 30m | 28m | Life Drain break range reduced from 30m to 28m |
| 2026-03-06 | life_drain_cooldownability:life_drain | Buff | 30s | 34s | Life Drain cooldown increased from 30s to 34s |
| 2026-03-06 | life_drain_t1_dpsability:life_drain | Buff | +16.2 | +18 | Life Drain T1 DPS increased from +16.2 to +18 |
| 2026-03-06 | life_drain_t2_durationability:life_drain | Buff | +2s | +2 | Life Drain T2 duration increased from +2s to +2.5s |
| 2026-03-06 | life_drain_t3ability:life_drain | Buff | Life Drain T3 now also increases spirit scaling by +0.3 | ||
| 2026-03-06 | life_drain_t3_chargesability:life_drain | Buff | +1 | +2 | Life Drain T3 charges increased from +1 to +2 |
| 2026-03-06 | soul_exchange_cast_timeability:soul_exchange | Nerf | 0.2s | 0 | Soul Exchange cast time reduced from 0.2s to 0.1s |
| 2026-03-06 | soul_exchange_post_cast_hold_timeability:soul_exchange | Nerf | 0.7s | 0 | Soul Exchange post cast hold time reduced from 0.7s to 0.2s |
| 2026-03-06 | soul_exchange_t1_cooldownability:soul_exchange | Buff | -35s | -60s | Soul Exchange T1 cooldown increased from -35s to -60s |
| 2026-03-06 | soul_exchange_t2ability:soul_exchange | Rework | "On Cast: +35% Fire Rate for 8s" | "Silences enemies within 25m for 3s" | Soul Exchange T2 changed from "On Cast: +35% Fire Rate for 8s" to "Silences enemies within 25m for 3s" |
| 2026-03-06 | soul_exchange_t3ability:soul_exchange | Rework | "Silences enemies within 25m for 3s" | "On Cast: +60 Spirit Power, +40% Fire Rate and +50% Spirit Resistance for 8s" | Soul Exchange T3 changed from "Silences enemies within 25m for 3s" to "On Cast: +60 Spirit Power, +40% Fire Rate and +50% Spirit Resistance for 8s" |
| 2025-11-21 | soul_exchange_t3_radiusability:soul_exchange | Buff | 15m | 25m | Soul Exchange T3 radius increased from 15m to 25m |
Hero Balance Predictions
Lady Geist buff/nerf prototype
Forecasts whether Lady Geist is likely to change next patch, using recent patch history and the Lady Geist predictor DuckDB.