Deadlock Hero Balance Predictions
Kelvin buff/nerf predictor prototype
Generated from the Kelvin predictor DuckDB, recent patch history, and a three-stage prediction model.
Prediction Model
Kelvin Buff/Nerf Watch
This page is the hero-side version of the item prediction screen. The target is whether a hero looks more likely to be buffed, nerfed, or left alone in a future patch. This first page is Kelvin-only so the predictors can be reviewed before expanding to every hero.
Best read: this is now a three-stage experiment. It first asks whether Kelvin is likely to change, then which broad mechanic would be selected, then the direction of that selected mechanic. Later stages are conditional and must not be read as standalone certainty.
- Stage 1
- Will Kelvin receive any balance change in the next patch?
- Stage 2
- If Kelvin changes, which mechanic family is most likely to be selected?
- Stage 3
- If that family is selected, does its patch direction look like buff, nerf, or mixed/rework?
- Future learning
- Weekly snapshots preserve hero stats and ability values over time. They are enabled as model features only after changed and unchanged patches both have adequate coverage.
Three-Stage Next-Patch Forecast
1
Will Kelvin change?
10.1%
Estimated chance of any Kelvin balance change. No-change estimate: 89.9%.
Disclaimer: Experimental. This is based on one hero's patch history and has not been proven accurate — Stage 1 and Stage 2 don't yet beat a simple "no change" guess on holdout data. Treat every number on this page as a rough signal, not a confirmed forecast.
Stages 2 and 3: target and direction if Kelvin changes
| Mechanic | Selected if changed | Direction | Buff if selected | Nerf if selected | Mixed/rework if selected | Combined priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frozen Shelter | 3.6% | Nerf | 0.0% | 69.4% | 30.6% | 0.4% |
| Vitality | 2.1% | Mixed Or Rework | 0.0% | 47.3% | 52.7% | 0.2% |
| Ice Path | 2.0% | Nerf | 0.0% | 78.4% | 21.6% | 0.2% |
| Frost Grenade | 2.0% | Nerf | 0.0% | 81.3% | 18.7% | 0.2% |
| Spirit | 1.9% | Mixed Or Rework | 0.0% | 47.3% | 52.7% | 0.2% |
| Weapon | 1.6% | Nerf | 0.0% | 52.6% | 47.4% | 0.2% |
| Arctic Beam | 0.7% | Nerf | 0.0% | 78.6% | 21.4% | 0.1% |
Combined priority multiplies Stage 1 by Stage 2 to help sort the watchlist. It is not a calibrated probability that the named mechanic will change.
Validation and Data Readiness
Every stage uses older patches for training and newer patches for testing. The current patch calendar contains 138 update dates through 2026-06-12.
| Stage | Test rows | Balanced accuracy | Macro F1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stage 1 - hero changedWhether Kelvin receives any balance change. | 28 | 50.0% | 0.481 |
| Stage 2 - mechanic selectedWhich mechanic family is selected if Kelvin changes. | 196 | 50.0% | 0.491 |
| Stage 3 - conditional directionBuff, nerf, or mixed/rework after a mechanic is selected. | 3 | 0.0% | 0.000 |
Performance feature gate: withheld. Historical pre-patch win-rate coverage is 0.0%; the required coverage is 80.0%. Performance features are withheld because missingness is too sparse or too strongly associated with whether Kelvin changed.
The weekly collector now stores all hero performance, base stats, and ability properties without overwriting prior snapshots. Once enough unchanged and changed patches have comparable coverage, performance and ability-strength features can enter training without leaking the answer.
Kelvin Patch Changes
43 Kelvin patch-change rows are included from the recent patch window.
| Patch | Predictor | Direction | Before | After | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-22 | arctic_beam_dps_spirit_scalingability:arctic_beam | Nerf | 0.5 | 0 | Arctic Beam DPS spirit scaling reduced from 0.5 to 0.38 |
| 2026-05-22 | frost_grenade_damage_spirit_scalingability:frost_grenade | Nerf | 0.7 | 0 | Frost Grenade damage spirit scaling reduced from 0.7 to 0.6 |
| 2026-05-22 | when_interrupted_on_ice_path_itability:ice_path | Nerf | When interrupted on Ice Path, it no longer creates an ice path below him and instead lets him fall to the ground | ||
| 2026-03-06 | arctic_beam_cooldownability:arctic_beam | Buff | 25s | 28s | Arctic Beam cooldown increased from 25s to 28s |
| 2026-03-06 | arctic_beam_max_fire_rate_reductionability:arctic_beam | Nerf | -35% | -20% | Arctic Beam Max Fire Rate Reduction reduced from -35% to -20% |
| 2026-03-06 | arctic_beam_max_slowability:arctic_beam | Nerf | -40% | -20% | Arctic Beam Max Slow reduced from -40% to -20% |
| 2026-03-06 | arctic_beam_spirit_scalingability:arctic_beam | Nerf | 0.8 | 0 | Arctic Beam spirit scaling reduced from 0.8 to 0.5 |
| 2026-03-06 | arctic_beam_t1ability:arctic_beam | Rework | "-7s Cooldown" | "Increases Move Slow and Fire Rate Reduction by -25%" | Arctic Beam T1 changed from "-7s Cooldown" to "Increases Move Slow and Fire Rate Reduction by -25%" |
| 2026-03-06 | arctic_beam_t2ability:arctic_beam | Rework | "+33 DPS" | "+20 DPS and +0 | Arctic Beam T2 changed from "+33 DPS" to "+20 DPS and +0.6 Spirit Scaling" |
| 2026-03-06 | arctic_beam_t3ability:arctic_beam | Buff | Arctic Beam T3 now also reduces cooldown by 13s | ||
| 2026-03-06 | arctic_beam_visual_clarity_on_vfx_improvedability:arctic_beam | Buff | Arctic Beam visual clarity on VFX improved | ||
| 2026-03-06 | arctic_beamability:frost_grenade | Rework | Arctic Beam now lets you cast Frost Grenade and items while using it | ||
| 2026-03-06 | frost_grenadeability:frost_grenade | Rework | Frost Grenade now impacts on Ice Path | ||
| 2026-03-06 | frost_grenadeability:frost_grenade | Nerf | Frost Grenade no longer has -40% Stamina regen reduction | ||
| 2026-03-06 | frost_grenadeability:frost_grenade | Rework | Frost Grenade now heals in the base ability (60 + 0.9 Spirit Scaling) | ||
| 2026-03-06 | frost_grenadeability:frost_grenade | Rework | Frost Grenade now comes with 2 charges | ||
| 2026-03-06 | frost_grenade_cooldownability:frost_grenade | Buff | 20s | 30s | Frost Grenade cooldown increased from 20s to 30s |
| 2026-03-06 | frost_grenade_damage_spirit_scalingability:frost_grenade | Nerf | 0.914 | 0 | Frost Grenade damage spirit scaling reduced from 0.914 to 0.8 |
| 2026-03-06 | frost_grenade_radiusability:frost_grenade | Buff | 6m | 6 | Frost Grenade radius increased from 6m to 6.5m |
| 2026-03-06 | frost_grenade_radiusability:frost_grenade | Nerf | 6.5m | 6m | Frost Grenade radius reduced from 6.5m to 6m |
| 2026-03-06 | frost_grenade_t1ability:frost_grenade | Rework | "+1 Charge" | "Increases damage and heal by +30" | Frost Grenade T1 changed from "+1 Charge" to "Increases damage and heal by +30" |
| 2026-03-06 | frost_grenade_t2ability:frost_grenade | Rework | "Provides healing 80+1.5" | "Freezes stamina regen and -10s Cooldown" | Frost Grenade T2 changed from "Provides healing 80+1.5" to "Freezes stamina regen and -10s Cooldown" |
| 2026-03-06 | frost_grenade_t3ability:frost_grenade | Rework | "+144 Damage and -30% Stamina Regen" | "Increases damage and heal spirit scaling by 1 | Frost Grenade T3 changed from "+144 Damage and -30% Stamina Regen" to "Increases damage and heal spirit scaling by 1.0 and Radius by +2m" |
| 2026-03-06 | frost_grenade_t3_damage_spirit_scalingability:frost_grenade | Nerf | 1.0 | 0 | Frost Grenade T3 damage spirit scaling reduced from 1.0 to 0.9 |
| 2026-03-06 | frozen_shelter_canability:frozen_shelter | Rework | Frozen Shelter can now be canceled first without canceling Ice Beam | ||
| 2026-03-06 | frozen_shelter_durationability:frozen_shelter | Nerf | 5.25s | 5s | Frozen Shelter duration reduced from 5.25s to 5s |
| 2026-03-06 | frozen_shelter_isability:frozen_shelter | Rework | Frozen Shelter is now 8m unit target, creates the dome around the center of both heroes. Can be self casted to create it around yourself. | ||
| 2026-03-06 | frozen_shelter_t1ability:frozen_shelter | Rework | "-35% Enemy Fire Rate" | "-25s Cooldown" | Frozen Shelter T1 changed from "-35% Enemy Fire Rate" to "-25s Cooldown" |
| 2026-03-06 | frozen_shelter_t2ability:frozen_shelter | Buff | +1s | +1 | Frozen Shelter T2 increased from +1s to +1.5s |
| 2026-03-06 | frozen_shelter_t3ability:frozen_shelter | Buff | 50 Health Regen | 65 | Frozen Shelter T3 increased from 50 Health Regen to 65 |
| 2026-03-06 | frozen_shelter_t3ability:frozen_shelter | Buff | Frozen Shelter T3 now also dispels non-ult debuffs on cast (affects you and allies) | ||
| 2026-03-06 | ice_path_cooldownability:ice_path | Buff | 46s | 50s | Ice Path cooldown increased from 46s to 50s |
| 2026-03-06 | ice_path_incline_decline_speedability:ice_path | Buff | Ice Path incline/decline speed increased | ||
| 2026-03-06 | ice_path_isability:ice_path | Rework | Ice Path is now cancelled on Ability Button Press instead of Space | ||
| 2026-03-06 | ice_path_t1ability:ice_path | Rework | "+4 Sprint" | "+2 Move Speed and +35% Bullet Resistance on Ice Path" | Ice Path T1 changed from "+4 Sprint" to "+2 Move Speed and +35% Bullet Resistance on Ice Path" |
| 2026-03-06 | ice_path_t2ability:ice_path | Buff | -17s Cooldown | -20s | Ice Path T2 increased from -17s Cooldown to -20s |
| 2026-03-06 | ice_path_t2ability:ice_path | Buff | -20s Cooldown | -25s | Ice Path T2 increased from -20s Cooldown to -25s |
| 2026-03-06 | ice_path_t3ability:ice_path | Buff | Ice Path T3 now grants you +35% Spirit Power while on Ice Path | ||
| 2026-03-06 | ice_path_t3ability:ice_path | Buff | Ice Path T3 now also grants +20 Spirit Power | ||
| 2025-11-21 | frost_grenade_base_damageability:frost_grenade | Nerf | 74 | 60 | Frost Grenade base damage reduced from 74 to 60 |
| 2025-11-21 | frozen_shelter_durationability:frozen_shelter | Nerf | 5.5s | 5s | Frozen Shelter duration reduced from 5.5s to 5s |
| 2025-11-21 | frozen_shelter_t2ability:frozen_shelter | Rework | "-45s Cooldown" | "+1s Duration" | Frozen Shelter T2 changed from "-45s Cooldown" to "+1s Duration" |
| 2025-11-21 | bullet_velocityweapon | Nerf | 254 | 160 | Bullet Velocity reduced from 254 to 160 |
Hero Balance Predictions
Kelvin buff/nerf prototype
Forecasts whether Kelvin is likely to change next patch, using recent patch history and the Kelvin predictor DuckDB.