Deadlock Hero Balance Predictions
Ivy buff/nerf predictor prototype
Generated from the Ivy predictor DuckDB, recent patch history, and a three-stage prediction model.
Prediction Model
Ivy Buff/Nerf Watch
This page is the hero-side version of the item prediction screen. The target is whether a hero looks more likely to be buffed, nerfed, or left alone in a future patch. This first page is Ivy-only so the predictors can be reviewed before expanding to every hero.
Best read: this is now a three-stage experiment. It first asks whether Ivy is likely to change, then which broad mechanic would be selected, then the direction of that selected mechanic. Later stages are conditional and must not be read as standalone certainty.
- Stage 1
- Will Ivy receive any balance change in the next patch?
- Stage 2
- If Ivy changes, which mechanic family is most likely to be selected?
- Stage 3
- If that family is selected, does its patch direction look like buff, nerf, or mixed/rework?
- Future learning
- Weekly snapshots preserve hero stats and ability values over time. They are enabled as model features only after changed and unchanged patches both have adequate coverage.
Three-Stage Next-Patch Forecast
1
Will Ivy change?
27.6%
Estimated chance of any Ivy balance change. No-change estimate: 72.4%.
Disclaimer: Experimental. This is based on one hero's patch history and has not been proven accurate — Stage 1 and Stage 2 don't yet beat a simple "no change" guess on holdout data. Treat every number on this page as a rough signal, not a confirmed forecast.
Stages 2 and 3: target and direction if Ivy changes
| Mechanic | Selected if changed | Direction | Buff if selected | Nerf if selected | Mixed/rework if selected | Combined priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Air Drop | 21.5% | Mixed Or Rework | 2.6% | 2.1% | 95.2% | 5.9% |
| Weapon | 14.8% | Mixed Or Rework | 4.5% | 1.9% | 93.5% | 4.1% |
| Vitality | 12.1% | Mixed Or Rework | 3.3% | 6.1% | 90.6% | 3.3% |
| Stone Form | 9.4% | Mixed Or Rework | 2.2% | 5.3% | 92.4% | 2.6% |
| Entangling Thorns | 8.9% | Mixed Or Rework | 3.9% | 2.9% | 93.2% | 2.4% |
| Kudzu Connection | 7.9% | Mixed Or Rework | 3.9% | 2.9% | 93.2% | 2.2% |
| Spirit | 3.8% | Mixed Or Rework | 4.0% | 3.7% | 92.3% | 1.1% |
Combined priority multiplies Stage 1 by Stage 2 to help sort the watchlist. It is not a calibrated probability that the named mechanic will change.
Validation and Data Readiness
Every stage uses older patches for training and newer patches for testing. The current patch calendar contains 138 update dates through 2026-06-12.
| Stage | Test rows | Balanced accuracy | Macro F1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stage 1 - hero changedWhether Ivy receives any balance change. | 28 | 50.0% | 0.481 |
| Stage 2 - mechanic selectedWhich mechanic family is selected if Ivy changes. | 196 | 50.0% | 0.491 |
| Stage 3 - conditional directionBuff, nerf, or mixed/rework after a mechanic is selected. | 1 | 100.0% | 1.000 |
Performance feature gate: withheld. Historical pre-patch win-rate coverage is 0.0%; the required coverage is 80.0%. Performance features are withheld because missingness is too sparse or too strongly associated with whether Ivy changed.
The weekly collector now stores all hero performance, base stats, and ability properties without overwriting prior snapshots. Once enough unchanged and changed patches have comparable coverage, performance and ability-strength features can enter training without leaking the answer.
Ivy Patch Changes
53 Ivy patch-change rows are included from the recent patch window.
| Patch | Predictor | Direction | Before | After | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-12 | fixed_a_bug_where_stone_form_could_sometimes_do_significantly_more_damage_than_iability:stone_form | Rework | Fixed a bug where Stone Form could sometimes do significantly more damage than intended | ||
| 2026-03-06 | air_dropability:air_drop | Buff | Air Drop now grants you and your ally +20% Outgoing Damage after dropping | ||
| 2026-03-06 | air_drop_ally_cast_rangeability:air_drop | Buff | 14m | 18m | Air Drop ally cast range increased from 14m to 18m |
| 2026-03-06 | air_drop_ally_cast_rangeability:air_drop | Buff | 18m | 22m | Air Drop ally cast range increased from 18m to 22m |
| 2026-03-06 | air_drop_base_max_speedability:air_drop | Buff | 11/18m | 10/22m | Air Drop base/max speed increased from 11/18m to 10/22m |
| 2026-03-06 | air_drop_bombability:air_drop | Nerf | Air Drop bomb no longer provides barrier by default | ||
| 2026-03-06 | air_drop_bombability:air_drop | Nerf | Air Drop bomb no longer slows on explode by default | ||
| 2026-03-06 | air_drop_bombability:air_drop | Nerf | Air Drop bomb no longer causes a knockup | ||
| 2026-03-06 | air_drop_bombability:air_drop | Nerf | Air Drop bomb no longer has a fast explode expanding behavior | ||
| 2026-03-06 | air_drop_bomb_radiusability:air_drop | Buff | 14m | 20m | Air Drop bomb radius increased from 14m to 20m |
| 2026-03-06 | air_drop_buff_durationability:air_drop | Nerf | 12s | 8s | Air Drop buff duration reduced from 12s to 8s |
| 2026-03-06 | air_drop_cast_timeability:air_drop | Nerf | Air Drop cast time removed. Instead, if you take damage the ability will be unable to be used for 3.5s | ||
| 2026-03-06 | air_drop_cooldownability:air_drop | Buff | 65s | 85s | Air Drop cooldown increased from 65s to 85s |
| 2026-03-06 | air_drop_cooldownability:air_drop | Nerf | 100s | 65s | Air Drop Cooldown reduced from 100s to 65s |
| 2026-03-06 | air_drop_cooldown_isability:air_drop | Nerf | Air Drop cooldown is reduced by 25% when used on allies | ||
| 2026-03-06 | air_drop_damage_spirit_scalingability:air_drop | Nerf | 1 | 0 | Air Drop damage spirit scaling reduced from 1 to 0.7 |
| 2026-03-06 | air_drop_durationability:air_drop | Buff | 16s | 21s | Air Drop duration increased from 16s to 21s |
| 2026-03-06 | air_drop_isability:air_drop | Nerf | Air Drop is no longer disabled by damage over time abilities (same as zipline rules) | ||
| 2026-03-06 | air_drop_spirit_damage_scalingability:air_drop | Nerf | 2.3 | 1 | Air Drop spirit damage scaling reduced from 2.3 to 1.0 |
| 2026-03-06 | air_drop_t1ability:air_drop | Rework | "-20% Bullet Resist on enemies hit for 8s" | "Grants you and ally 300 Barrier (+1 | Air Drop T1 changed from "-20% Bullet Resist on enemies hit for 8s" to "Grants you and ally 300 Barrier (+1.0 Spirit Scaling)" Lasts 12s. |
| 2026-03-06 | air_drop_t1_barrier_spirit_scalingability:air_drop | Nerf | 1 | 0 | Air Drop T1 barrier spirit scaling reduced from 1 to 0.7 |
| 2026-03-06 | air_drop_t2ability:air_drop | Rework | "+200 Barrier and +5m Explode Radius" | "Explode applies 50% Slow for 3s" | Air Drop T2 changed from "+200 Barrier and +5m Explode Radius" to "Explode applies 50% Slow for 3s" |
| 2026-03-06 | air_drop_t2_slowability:air_drop | Nerf | 50% | 40% | Air Drop T2 slow reduced from 50% to 40% |
| 2026-03-06 | air_drop_t3ability:air_drop | Buff | Air Drop T3 now also increases damage scaling by +1.5 and barrier scaling by +1.0 | ||
| 2026-03-06 | entangling_thorns_recharge_timeability:entangling_thorns | Nerf | 8s | 5s | Entangling Thorns Recharge Time reduced from 8s to 5s |
| 2026-03-06 | entangling_thorns_spirit_scalingability:entangling_thorns | Nerf | 0.65 | 0 | Entangling Thorns spirit scaling reduced from 0.65 to 0.55 |
| 2026-03-06 | entangling_thorns_spirit_scalingability:entangling_thorns | Nerf | 0.55 | 0 | Entangling Thorns spirit scaling reduced from 0.55 to 0.45 |
| 2026-03-06 | entangling_thorns_t2ability:entangling_thorns | Rework | "+2s Duration" | "+2m Radius and increases spirit scaling by +0 | Entangling Thorns T2 changed from "+2s Duration" to "+2m Radius and increases spirit scaling by +0.5" |
| 2026-03-06 | entangling_thorns_t3ability:entangling_thorns | Rework | "+36 DPS and +2m Radius" | "Entangles enemies that remain in it for 2s | Entangling Thorns T3 changed from "+36 DPS and +2m Radius" to "Entangles enemies that remain in it for 2s. Lasts 1.6s" |
| 2026-03-06 | kudzu_bomb_renamed_to_entangling_thornsability:entangling_thorns | Rework | Kudzu Bomb renamed to Entangling Thorns | ||
| 2026-03-06 | kudzu_connectionability:kudzu_connection | Rework | Kudzu Connection now only gives you half the bonus if you aren't connected to an ally | ||
| 2026-03-06 | kudzu_connection_bullet_lifesteal_spirit_scalingability:kudzu_connection | Nerf | 0.19 | 0 | Kudzu Connection Bullet Lifesteal spirit scaling reduced from 0.19 to 0.15 |
| 2026-03-06 | kudzu_connection_fire_rate_spirit_scalingability:kudzu_connection | Nerf | 0.25 | 0 | Kudzu Connection Fire Rate spirit scaling reduced from 0.25 to 0.18 |
| 2026-03-06 | kudzu_connection_t1ability:kudzu_connection | Rework | "+8% Fire Rate" | "+2m Move Speed bonus" | Kudzu Connection T1 changed from "+8% Fire Rate" to "+2m Move Speed bonus" |
| 2026-03-06 | kudzu_connection_t2ability:kudzu_connection | Rework | "+2m Move Speed Bonus" | "+8% Fire Rate and +8% Bullet Lifesteal" | Kudzu Connection T2 changed from "+2m Move Speed Bonus" to "+8% Fire Rate and +8% Bullet Lifesteal" |
| 2026-03-06 | kudzu_connection_t3ability:kudzu_connection | Rework | "+1 Tether Count" | "Ability is now always active" | Kudzu Connection T3 changed from "+1 Tether Count" to "Ability is now always active" |
| 2026-03-06 | watcher_s_covenant_renamed_to_kudzu_connectionability:kudzu_connection | Rework | Watcher's Covenant renamed to Kudzu Connection | ||
| 2026-03-06 | stone_form_cooldownability:stone_form | Buff | 37s | 40s | Stone Form cooldown increased from 37s to 40s |
| 2026-03-06 | stone_form_damage_spirit_scalingability:stone_form | Nerf | 1.5 | 0 | Stone Form damage spirit scaling reduced from 1.5 to 0.8 |
| 2026-03-06 | stone_form_spirit_scalingability:stone_form | Nerf | 0.8 | 0 | Stone Form spirit scaling reduced from 0.8 to 0.6 |
| 2026-03-06 | stone_form_t1ability:stone_form | Rework | "-19s cooldown" | "+7% Max Health Heal" | Stone Form T1 changed from "-19s cooldown" to "+7% Max Health Heal" |
| 2026-03-06 | stone_form_t2ability:stone_form | Rework | "+68 Damage and +0.5s Stun" | "-25s Cooldown" | Stone Form T2 changed from "+68 Damage and +0.5s Stun" to "-25s Cooldown" |
| 2026-03-06 | stone_form_t3ability:stone_form | Buff | "+13% Max Health Heal" | "+1s Stun and Increased Spirit Scaling (2 | Stone Form T3 changed from "+13% Max Health Heal" to "+1s Stun and Increased Spirit Scaling (2.0)" |
| 2026-03-06 | stone_form_t3_spirit_scalingability:stone_form | Nerf | +2 | +1 | Stone Form T3 spirit scaling reduced from +2 to +1.7 |
| 2026-03-06 | now_has_10_gravityvitality | Rework | Now has -10% Gravity | ||
| 2026-03-06 | bullet_damageweapon | Nerf | 4.59+0.12/boon | 4 | Bullet damage reduced from 4.59+0.12/boon to 4.45+0.06/boon |
| 2026-03-06 | bullet_damage_growthweapon | Buff | 0.06 | 0 | Bullet damage growth increased from 0.06 to 0.08 |
| 2025-11-21 | air_drop_cast_rangeability:air_drop | Buff | 12m | 14m | Air Drop cast range increased from 12m to 14m |
| 2025-11-21 | air_drop_damage_penalty_for_ally_you_are_carryingability:air_drop | Nerf | -50% | -30% | Air Drop damage penalty for ally you are carrying reduced from -50% to -30% |
| 2025-11-21 | stone_form_cooldownability:stone_form | Nerf | 42s | 37s | Stone Form cooldown reduced from 42s to 37s |
| 2025-11-21 | kudzu_bomb_spirit_scalingspirit | Buff | 0.56 | 0 | Kudzu Bomb spirit scaling increased from 0.56 to 0.65 |
| 2025-11-21 | kudzu_bomb_damagevitality | Nerf | 50 | 40 | Kudzu Bomb damage reduced from 50 to 40 |
| 2025-11-21 | watcher_s_covenant_bullet_lifestealweapon | Buff | 10% | 15% | Watcher’s Covenant bullet lifesteal increased from 10% to 15% |
Hero Balance Predictions
Ivy buff/nerf prototype
Forecasts whether Ivy is likely to change next patch, using recent patch history and the Ivy predictor DuckDB.