Deadlock Hero Balance Predictions
Ivy buff/nerf predictor prototype
Generated from the Ivy predictor DuckDB, recent patch history, and a three-stage prediction model.
Prediction Model

Ivy Buff/Nerf Watch

This page is the hero-side version of the item prediction screen. The target is whether a hero looks more likely to be buffed, nerfed, or left alone in a future patch. This first page is Ivy-only so the predictors can be reviewed before expanding to every hero.

Best read: this is now a three-stage experiment. It first asks whether Ivy is likely to change, then which broad mechanic would be selected, then the direction of that selected mechanic. Later stages are conditional and must not be read as standalone certainty.
Stage 1
Will Ivy receive any balance change in the next patch?
Stage 2
If Ivy changes, which mechanic family is most likely to be selected?
Stage 3
If that family is selected, does its patch direction look like buff, nerf, or mixed/rework?
Future learning
Weekly snapshots preserve hero stats and ability values over time. They are enabled as model features only after changed and unchanged patches both have adequate coverage.
Three-Stage Next-Patch Forecast
1

Will Ivy change?

28.3%

Estimated chance of any Ivy balance change. No-change estimate: 71.7%.

Disclaimer: Experimental. This is based on one hero's patch history and has not been proven accurate — Stage 1 and Stage 2 don't yet beat a simple "no change" guess on holdout data. Treat every number on this page as a rough signal, not a confirmed forecast.

Stages 2 and 3: target and direction if Ivy changes

Mechanic Selected if changed Direction Buff if selected Nerf if selected Mixed/rework if selected Combined priority
Stone Form 17.4% Buff 40.3% 34.9% 24.8% 4.9%
Air Drop 8.7% Buff 48.7% 24.3% 27.0% 2.5%
Entangling Thorns 6.1% Buff 52.1% 21.6% 26.3% 1.7%
Vitality 4.7% Buff 43.7% 16.3% 40.1% 1.3%
Weapon 4.2% Buff 43.7% 17.7% 38.5% 1.2%
Kudzu Connection 3.9% Buff 52.0% 21.1% 26.9% 1.1%
Spirit 2.1% Mixed Or Rework 40.6% 13.4% 46.0% 0.6%

Combined priority multiplies Stage 1 by Stage 2 to help sort the watchlist. It is not a calibrated probability that the named mechanic will change.

Validation and Data Readiness

Every stage uses older patches for training and newer patches for testing. The current patch calendar contains 147 update dates through 2026-08-02.

Stage Test rows Balanced accuracy Macro F1
Stage 1 - hero changedWhether Ivy receives any balance change. 30 50.0% 0.464
Stage 2 - mechanic selectedWhich mechanic family is selected if Ivy changes. 210 50.0% 0.487
Stage 3 - conditional directionBuff, nerf, or mixed/rework after a mechanic is selected. 1 0.0% 0.000
Performance feature gate: withheld. Historical pre-patch win-rate coverage is 6.1%; the required coverage is 80.0%. Performance features are withheld because missingness is too sparse or too strongly associated with whether Ivy changed.

The weekly collector now stores all hero performance, base stats, and ability properties without overwriting prior snapshots. Once enough unchanged and changed patches have comparable coverage, performance and ability-strength features can enter training without leaking the answer.

Ivy Patch Changes

57 Ivy patch-change rows are included from the recent patch window.

Patch Predictor Direction Before After Notes
2026-07-28 stone_form_t3_spirit_scalingability:stone_form Nerf +1.7 +1 Stone Form T3 spirit scaling reduced from +1.7 to +1.5
2026-06-30 air_drop_cooldown_reduction_when_used_on_alliesability:air_drop Buff -25% -30% Air Drop cooldown reduction when used on allies increased from -25% to -30%
2026-06-30 entangling_thorns_spirit_scalingability:entangling_thorns Buff 0.45 0 Entangling Thorns spirit scaling increased from 0.45 to 0.55
2026-06-30 kudzu_connection_replicated_healing_per_boon_scaleability:kudzu_connection Buff +0.5 +0 Kudzu Connection Replicated Healing per boon scale increased from +0.5 to +0.85
2026-06-12 fixed_a_bug_where_stone_form_could_sometimes_do_significantly_more_damage_than_iability:stone_form Rework Fixed a bug where Stone Form could sometimes do significantly more damage than intended
2026-03-06 air_dropability:air_drop Buff Air Drop now grants you and your ally +20% Outgoing Damage after dropping
2026-03-06 air_drop_ally_cast_rangeability:air_drop Buff 18m 22m Air Drop ally cast range increased from 18m to 22m
2026-03-06 air_drop_ally_cast_rangeability:air_drop Buff 14m 18m Air Drop ally cast range increased from 14m to 18m
2026-03-06 air_drop_base_max_speedability:air_drop Buff 11/18m 10/22m Air Drop base/max speed increased from 11/18m to 10/22m
2026-03-06 air_drop_bombability:air_drop Nerf Air Drop bomb no longer provides barrier by default
2026-03-06 air_drop_bombability:air_drop Nerf Air Drop bomb no longer slows on explode by default
2026-03-06 air_drop_bombability:air_drop Nerf Air Drop bomb no longer causes a knockup
2026-03-06 air_drop_bombability:air_drop Nerf Air Drop bomb no longer has a fast explode expanding behavior
2026-03-06 air_drop_bomb_radiusability:air_drop Buff 14m 20m Air Drop bomb radius increased from 14m to 20m
2026-03-06 air_drop_buff_durationability:air_drop Nerf 12s 8s Air Drop buff duration reduced from 12s to 8s
2026-03-06 air_drop_cast_timeability:air_drop Nerf Air Drop cast time removed. Instead, if you take damage the ability will be unable to be used for 3.5s
2026-03-06 air_drop_cooldownability:air_drop Nerf 100s 65s Air Drop Cooldown reduced from 100s to 65s
2026-03-06 air_drop_cooldownability:air_drop Buff 65s 85s Air Drop cooldown increased from 65s to 85s
2026-03-06 air_drop_cooldown_isability:air_drop Nerf Air Drop cooldown is reduced by 25% when used on allies
2026-03-06 air_drop_damage_spirit_scalingability:air_drop Nerf 1 0 Air Drop damage spirit scaling reduced from 1 to 0.7
2026-03-06 air_drop_durationability:air_drop Buff 16s 21s Air Drop duration increased from 16s to 21s
2026-03-06 air_drop_isability:air_drop Nerf Air Drop is no longer disabled by damage over time abilities (same as zipline rules)
2026-03-06 air_drop_spirit_damage_scalingability:air_drop Nerf 2.3 1 Air Drop spirit damage scaling reduced from 2.3 to 1.0
2026-03-06 air_drop_t1ability:air_drop Rework "-20% Bullet Resist on enemies hit for 8s" "Grants you and ally 300 Barrier (+1 Air Drop T1 changed from "-20% Bullet Resist on enemies hit for 8s" to "Grants you and ally 300 Barrier (+1.0 Spirit Scaling)" Lasts 12s.
2026-03-06 air_drop_t1_barrier_spirit_scalingability:air_drop Nerf 1 0 Air Drop T1 barrier spirit scaling reduced from 1 to 0.7
2026-03-06 air_drop_t2ability:air_drop Rework "+200 Barrier and +5m Explode Radius" "Explode applies 50% Slow for 3s" Air Drop T2 changed from "+200 Barrier and +5m Explode Radius" to "Explode applies 50% Slow for 3s"
2026-03-06 air_drop_t2_slowability:air_drop Nerf 50% 40% Air Drop T2 slow reduced from 50% to 40%
2026-03-06 air_drop_t3ability:air_drop Buff Air Drop T3 now also increases damage scaling by +1.5 and barrier scaling by +1.0
2026-03-06 entangling_thorns_recharge_timeability:entangling_thorns Nerf 8s 5s Entangling Thorns Recharge Time reduced from 8s to 5s
2026-03-06 entangling_thorns_spirit_scalingability:entangling_thorns Nerf 0.65 0 Entangling Thorns spirit scaling reduced from 0.65 to 0.55
2026-03-06 entangling_thorns_spirit_scalingability:entangling_thorns Nerf 0.55 0 Entangling Thorns spirit scaling reduced from 0.55 to 0.45
2026-03-06 entangling_thorns_t2ability:entangling_thorns Rework "+2s Duration" "+2m Radius and increases spirit scaling by +0 Entangling Thorns T2 changed from "+2s Duration" to "+2m Radius and increases spirit scaling by +0.5"
2026-03-06 entangling_thorns_t3ability:entangling_thorns Rework "+36 DPS and +2m Radius" "Entangles enemies that remain in it for 2s Entangling Thorns T3 changed from "+36 DPS and +2m Radius" to "Entangles enemies that remain in it for 2s. Lasts 1.6s"
2026-03-06 kudzu_bomb_renamed_to_entangling_thornsability:entangling_thorns Rework Kudzu Bomb renamed to Entangling Thorns
2026-03-06 kudzu_connectionability:kudzu_connection Rework Kudzu Connection now only gives you half the bonus if you aren't connected to an ally
2026-03-06 kudzu_connection_bullet_lifesteal_spirit_scalingability:kudzu_connection Nerf 0.19 0 Kudzu Connection Bullet Lifesteal spirit scaling reduced from 0.19 to 0.15
2026-03-06 kudzu_connection_fire_rate_spirit_scalingability:kudzu_connection Nerf 0.25 0 Kudzu Connection Fire Rate spirit scaling reduced from 0.25 to 0.18
2026-03-06 kudzu_connection_t1ability:kudzu_connection Rework "+8% Fire Rate" "+2m Move Speed bonus" Kudzu Connection T1 changed from "+8% Fire Rate" to "+2m Move Speed bonus"
2026-03-06 kudzu_connection_t2ability:kudzu_connection Rework "+2m Move Speed Bonus" "+8% Fire Rate and +8% Bullet Lifesteal" Kudzu Connection T2 changed from "+2m Move Speed Bonus" to "+8% Fire Rate and +8% Bullet Lifesteal"
2026-03-06 kudzu_connection_t3ability:kudzu_connection Rework "+1 Tether Count" "Ability is now always active" Kudzu Connection T3 changed from "+1 Tether Count" to "Ability is now always active"
2026-03-06 watcher_s_covenant_renamed_to_kudzu_connectionability:kudzu_connection Rework Watcher's Covenant renamed to Kudzu Connection
2026-03-06 stone_form_cooldownability:stone_form Buff 37s 40s Stone Form cooldown increased from 37s to 40s
2026-03-06 stone_form_damage_spirit_scalingability:stone_form Nerf 1.5 0 Stone Form damage spirit scaling reduced from 1.5 to 0.8
2026-03-06 stone_form_spirit_scalingability:stone_form Nerf 0.8 0 Stone Form spirit scaling reduced from 0.8 to 0.6
2026-03-06 stone_form_t1ability:stone_form Rework "-19s cooldown" "+7% Max Health Heal" Stone Form T1 changed from "-19s cooldown" to "+7% Max Health Heal"
2026-03-06 stone_form_t2ability:stone_form Rework "+68 Damage and +0.5s Stun" "-25s Cooldown" Stone Form T2 changed from "+68 Damage and +0.5s Stun" to "-25s Cooldown"
2026-03-06 stone_form_t3ability:stone_form Buff "+13% Max Health Heal" "+1s Stun and Increased Spirit Scaling (2 Stone Form T3 changed from "+13% Max Health Heal" to "+1s Stun and Increased Spirit Scaling (2.0)"
2026-03-06 stone_form_t3_spirit_scalingability:stone_form Nerf +2 +1 Stone Form T3 spirit scaling reduced from +2 to +1.7
2026-03-06 now_has_10_gravityvitality Rework Now has -10% Gravity
2026-03-06 bullet_damageweapon Nerf 4.59+0.12/boon 4 Bullet damage reduced from 4.59+0.12/boon to 4.45+0.06/boon
2026-03-06 bullet_damage_growthweapon Buff 0.06 0 Bullet damage growth increased from 0.06 to 0.08
2025-11-21 air_drop_cast_rangeability:air_drop Buff 12m 14m Air Drop cast range increased from 12m to 14m
2025-11-21 air_drop_damage_penalty_for_ally_you_are_carryingability:air_drop Nerf -50% -30% Air Drop damage penalty for ally you are carrying reduced from -50% to -30%
2025-11-21 stone_form_cooldownability:stone_form Nerf 42s 37s Stone Form cooldown reduced from 42s to 37s
2025-11-21 kudzu_bomb_spirit_scalingspirit Buff 0.56 0 Kudzu Bomb spirit scaling increased from 0.56 to 0.65
2025-11-21 kudzu_bomb_damagevitality Nerf 50 40 Kudzu Bomb damage reduced from 50 to 40
2025-11-21 watcher_s_covenant_bullet_lifestealweapon Buff 10% 15% Watcher’s Covenant bullet lifesteal increased from 10% to 15%
Deadlock
Hero Balance Predictions
Ivy buff/nerf prototype
Forecasts whether Ivy is likely to change next patch, using recent patch history and the Ivy predictor DuckDB.