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Deadlock Item Balance Predictions
Experimental model table for all current items
Generated from the current item change database and Deadlock API item stats.
Prediction Model

What this page is trying to do

This table is an experimental balance watch list, not a forecast. It does not know Valve's plans. It looks at item history, item type, cost, API item stats, win-rate movement, and usage signals to produce an exploratory model score, not a calibrated probability.

Read this first: the "no balance change" group has very few historical examples compared to the "balance change" group, and in validation the model did not reliably tell the two groups apart. A high experimental score mostly reflects that most items in the training data eventually changed — it is not yet a demonstrated forecast of a future patch. Treat every row as exploratory until the model is retrained and validated on dated, held-out patches.
Best read: use a high experimental score plus high bootstrap stability as the more interesting rows, and treat "Disagreement" rows as unreliable. Bootstrap stability comes from a separate resampled re-run of the models, not the same run behind the score and direction above — low stability means a model changed its mind when the data was resampled, or that Random Forest and Gradient Boosting's re-run did not land on the same label.
Source file dates for this build:
  • Random Forest change/direction predictions: 2026-10-24
  • Gradient Boosting change/direction predictions: 2026-10-24
  • Random Forest bootstrap stability: 2026-10-24
  • Gradient Boosting bootstrap stability: 2026-10-24
Experimental score
Random Forest's training-set score for "belongs in the balance-change group," not a calibrated probability of a future change. See the warning above.
Direction
Gradient Boosting guess for the likely direction if the item is changed.
Direction confidence
How strongly the direction model leans toward buff or nerf. Also a training-set score, not a calibrated probability.
Bootstrap stability
From a separate resampled re-run of the models (not the same run behind the score and direction above): how often that re-run landed on the same final prediction, and whether Random Forest and Gradient Boosting's re-run agreed on a label. Shows "Disagreement" when they don't — a sign the headline call is shaky, not a recheck of that exact call.
Notes
A plain-English warning label generated from the model scores and bootstrap stability.
Lasso Predictor Screen

The L1 logistic screen is the lasso-style step. It tries to zero out weaker predictors before the tree models run. Stage 1 predicts whether an item changes. Stage 2 only looks at changed items and predicts buff versus nerf.

Stage 1 only Stage 2 only Both stages use the default text color.

Kept predictors

  • current_cost
  • days_since_last_change
  • avg_days_between_change_patches
  • buff_change_count
  • nerf_change_count
  • unknown_change_count
  • first_change_date_ordinal
  • last_change_date_ordinal
  • item_id
  • api_global_wins
  • api_global_losses
  • api_global_matches
  • api_global_players
  • api_global_avg_buy_time_s
  • api_global_avg_sell_time_s
  • api_global_avg_sell_time_relative
  • api_hero_matches_total
  • api_hero_avg_players
  • api_hero_max_players
  • api_hero_avg_buy_time_s
  • api_daily_bucket_count
  • api_daily_matches_total
  • api_daily_avg_players
  • api_daily_avg_buy_time_s

Dropped predictors

  • is_current_item_guess
  • current_tier
  • current_default_stat_count
  • current_enhanced_stat_count
  • has_enhanced
  • change_row_count
  • unique_patch_count
  • rework_change_count
  • fix_change_count
  • added_change_count
  • removed_change_count
  • changes_last_30_days
  • changes_last_60_days
  • changes_last_90_days
  • changes_last_180_days
  • api_global_win_rate
  • api_global_loss_rate
  • api_global_avg_buy_time_relative
  • api_hero_bucket_count
  • api_hero_avg_win_rate
  • api_hero_min_win_rate
  • api_hero_max_win_rate
  • api_daily_avg_win_rate
  • api_daily_min_win_rate
  • api_daily_max_win_rate
  • api_daily_last_win_rate
  • api_daily_first_win_rate
  • api_daily_win_rate_change
  • api_daily_win_rate_slope
  • wiki_categories_Items|Tier 1 items|Spirit Items
  • wiki_categories_Items|Tier 1 items|Vitality Items
  • wiki_categories_Items|Tier 1 items|Weapon Items
  • wiki_categories_Items|Tier 2 items|Spirit Items
  • wiki_categories_Items|Tier 2 items|Vitality Items
  • wiki_categories_Items|Tier 2 items|Weapon Items
  • wiki_categories_Items|Tier 3 items|Spirit Items
  • wiki_categories_Items|Tier 3 items|Vitality Items
  • wiki_categories_Items|Tier 3 items|Weapon Items
  • wiki_categories_Items|Tier 4 items|Spirit Items
  • wiki_categories_Items|Tier 4 items|Vitality Items
  • wiki_categories_Items|Tier 4 items|Weapon Items
  • item_type_Spirit
  • item_type_Vitality
  • item_type_Weapon
  • item_name_infrequent_sklearn
  • api_item_type_upgrade
  • unknown_change_count
  • item_id
Item Prediction Table

156 items are included. The table is sorted by highest experimental score first, then bootstrap stability.

Item Experimental score Direction Direction confidence Bootstrap stability Notes
Disarming Hex 100% Buff 97% 93% Strong stable buff signal.
Rusted Barrel 99% Buff 97% 92% Strong stable buff signal.
Burst Fire 99% Buff 100% 100% Strong stable buff signal.
Decay 99% Nerf 95% 63% Moderate nerf signal. Review with patch context.
Titanic Magazine 99% Buff 100% 95% Strong stable buff signal.
Rescue Beam 99% Buff 99% 87% Strong stable buff signal.
Dispel Magic 99% Buff 98% 73% Moderate buff signal. Review with patch context.
Vampiric Burst 99% Buff 99% 93% Strong stable buff signal.
Spirit Sap 98% Buff 98% 83% Strong stable buff signal.
Spirit Snatch 98% Buff 99% 100% Strong stable buff signal.
Surge of Power 98% Buff 100% 98% Strong stable buff signal.
Rebuttal 98% Nerf 97% 65% Moderate nerf signal. Review with patch context.
Silence Wave 98% Nerf 99% 75% Strong stable nerf signal.
Metal Skin 98% Nerf 98% 72% Moderate nerf signal. Review with patch context.
Toxic Bullets 98% Buff 100% 98% Strong stable buff signal.
Fortitude 98% Buff 100% 100% Strong stable buff signal.
Escalating Resilience 98% Buff 99% 93% Strong stable buff signal.
Superior Duration 98% Buff 98% 57% Unstable prediction. Treat this as a watch-list item, not a call.
Alchemical Fire 98% Buff 100% 90% Strong stable buff signal.
Suppressor 98% Nerf 98% 70% Moderate nerf signal. Review with patch context.
Weapon Shielding 98% Nerf 95% 62% Moderate nerf signal. Review with patch context.
Restorative Locket 98% Buff 98% 53% Unstable prediction. Treat this as a watch-list item, not a call.
Swift Striker 97% Buff 99% 100% Strong stable buff signal.
Tesla Bullets 97% Nerf 99% 90% Strong stable nerf signal.
Bullet Resilience 97% Buff 97% 80% Strong stable buff signal.
Spirit Rend 97% Nerf 100% 97% Strong stable nerf signal.
Cultist Sacrifice 97% Buff 99% 95% Strong stable buff signal.
Split Shot 97% Nerf 99% 65% Moderate nerf signal. Review with patch context.
Weighted Shots 97% Nerf 99% 62% Moderate nerf signal. Review with patch context.
Greater Expansion 97% Nerf 98% 90% Strong stable nerf signal.
Mystic Vulnerability 97% Buff 99% 83% Strong stable buff signal.
Majestic Leap 97% Buff 98% 98% Strong stable buff signal.
Juggernaut 97% Buff 98% 85% Strong stable buff signal.
Kinetic Dash 97% Nerf 100% 82% Strong stable nerf signal.
Tankbuster 97% Nerf 98% 83% Strong stable nerf signal.
Superior Cooldown 97% Nerf 99% 95% Strong stable nerf signal.
Inhibitor 96% Nerf 98% 75% Strong stable nerf signal.
Mystic Shot 96% Nerf 98% 80% Strong stable nerf signal.
Counterspell 96% Nerf 98% 70% Moderate nerf signal. Review with patch context.
Duration Extender 96% Buff 99% 90% Strong stable buff signal.
Unstoppable 96% Nerf 97% 80% Strong stable nerf signal.
Reactive Barrier 96% Buff 98% 73% Moderate buff signal. Review with patch context.
Mystic Burst 96% Buff 97% 67% Moderate buff signal. Review with patch context.
Battle Vest 96% Buff 98% 93% Strong stable buff signal.
Fleetfoot 96% Buff 100% 80% Strong stable buff signal.
Restorative Shot 96% Buff 99% 100% Strong stable buff signal.
Arcane Surge 96% Buff 100% 90% Strong stable buff signal.
Plated Armor 96% Buff 98% 75% Strong stable buff signal.
Headhunter 96% Nerf 100% 93% Strong stable nerf signal.
Slowing Hex 96% Nerf 100% 85% Strong stable nerf signal.
Colossus 96% Nerf 98% 83% Strong stable nerf signal.
Divine Barrier 96% Buff 100% 73% Moderate buff signal. Review with patch context.
Healing Rite 96% Buff 99% 98% Strong stable buff signal.
Spirit Resilience 96% Buff 100% 92% Strong stable buff signal.
Hunter's Aura 96% Buff 99% 90% Strong stable buff signal.
Spellslinger 96% Nerf 99% 72% Moderate nerf signal. Review with patch context.
Healbane 96% Nerf 98% 68% Moderate nerf signal. Review with patch context.
Monster Rounds 95% Buff 98% 90% Strong stable buff signal.
Diviner's Kevlar 95% Buff 100% 75% Strong stable buff signal.
Return Fire 95% Buff 98% 73% Moderate buff signal. Review with patch context.
Stamina Mastery 95% Nerf 99% 67% Moderate nerf signal. Review with patch context.
Ethereal Shift 95% Buff 97% 65% Moderate buff signal. Review with patch context.
Recharging Rush 95% Buff 100% 98% Strong stable buff signal.
Bullet Lifesteal 95% Buff 99% 98% Strong stable buff signal.
Intensifying Magazine 95% Nerf 100% 97% Strong stable nerf signal.
Witchmail 95% Buff 98% 63% Moderate buff signal. Review with patch context.
Torment Pulse 95% Buff 100% 100% Strong stable buff signal.
Radiant Regeneration 95% Buff 100% 100% Strong stable buff signal.
Cursed Relic 95% Nerf 98% 70% Moderate nerf signal. Review with patch context.
Enchanter's Emblem 95% Buff 98% 67% Moderate buff signal. Review with patch context.
Mystic Slow 95% Buff 100% 93% Strong stable buff signal.
Express Shot 95% Buff 98% 83% Strong stable buff signal.
Bullet Resist Shredder 95% Nerf 99% 62% Moderate nerf signal. Review with patch context.
Knockdown 95% Nerf 100% 97% Strong stable nerf signal.
Guardian Ward 95% Buff 99% 77% Strong stable buff signal.
Phantom Strike 95% Buff 97% 70% Moderate buff signal. Review with patch context.
Long Range 94% Buff 98% 85% Strong stable buff signal.
Heroic Aura 94% Buff 100% 97% Strong stable buff signal.
Boundless Spirit 94% Nerf 97% 97% Strong stable nerf signal.
Fury Trance 94% Buff 99% 95% Strong stable buff signal.
Hollow Point 94% Nerf 99% 83% Strong stable nerf signal.
Compress Cooldown 94% Nerf 99% 80% Strong stable nerf signal.
Crushing Fists 94% Buff 99% 85% Strong stable buff signal.
Rapid Recharge 94% Buff 98% 68% Moderate buff signal. Review with patch context.
Berserker 94% Nerf 99% 82% Strong stable nerf signal.
Debuff Reducer 94% Buff 99% 73% Moderate buff signal. Review with patch context.
Lucky Shot 94% Nerf 100% 100% Strong stable nerf signal.
Leech 94% Buff 99% 97% Strong stable buff signal.
Extra Charge 94% Buff 99% 70% Moderate buff signal. Review with patch context.
Cold Front 94% Nerf 97% 60% Moderate nerf signal. Review with patch context.
Close Quarters 94% Buff 100% 98% Strong stable buff signal.
Point Blank 93% Buff 99% 98% Strong stable buff signal.
Veil Walker 93% Buff 100% 97% Strong stable buff signal.
Warp Stone 93% Nerf 100% 92% Strong stable nerf signal.
Silencer 93% Nerf 97% 75% Strong stable nerf signal.
Spirit Shielding 93% Nerf 98% 60% Moderate nerf signal. Review with patch context.
Golden Goose Egg 93% Buff 99% 97% Strong stable buff signal.
Glass Cannon 93% Nerf 100% 93% Strong stable nerf signal.
Refresher 93% Nerf 99% 85% Strong stable nerf signal.
Rapid Rounds 93% Nerf 99% 60% Moderate nerf signal. Review with patch context.
Extended Magazine 92% Buff 100% 93% Strong stable buff signal.
Extra Health 92% Buff 100% 95% Strong stable buff signal.
Transcendent Cooldown 92% Nerf 99% 90% Strong stable nerf signal.
Headshot Booster 92% Buff 100% 95% Strong stable buff signal.
Indomitable 92% Buff 100% 90% Strong stable buff signal.
Mystic Regeneration 91% Buff 99% 95% Strong stable buff signal.
Opening Rounds 91% Nerf 98% 60% Moderate nerf signal. Review with patch context.
Ricochet 91% Nerf 100% 88% Strong stable nerf signal.
Spirit Burn 90% Nerf 98% 55% Unstable prediction. Treat this as a watch-list item, not a call.
Extra Spirit 90% Nerf 98% 63% Moderate nerf signal. Review with patch context.
Focus Lens 90% Buff 99% 80% Strong stable buff signal.
Extra Regen 90% Nerf 98% 68% Moderate nerf signal. Review with patch context.
Active Reload 89% Buff 99% 95% Strong stable buff signal.
Melee Charge 89% Nerf 100% 87% Strong stable nerf signal.
Spellbreaker 89% Buff 99% 75% Strong stable buff signal.
Healing Nova 89% Nerf 97% 70% Moderate nerf signal. Review with patch context.
Capacitor 89% Nerf 99% 93% Strong stable nerf signal.
Lightning Scroll 89% Buff 98% 80% Strong stable buff signal.
Spiritual Overflow 89% Buff 98% 78% Strong stable buff signal.
Extra Stamina 89% Nerf 97% 90% Strong stable nerf signal.
Mystic Expansion 87% Nerf 99% 80% Strong stable nerf signal.
Mercurial Magnum 86% Buff 100% 97% Strong stable buff signal.
Shadow Weave 86% Buff 100% 70% Moderate buff signal. Review with patch context.
Cheat Death 86% Nerf 98% 50% Unstable prediction. Treat this as a watch-list item, not a call.
Infuser 86% Buff 98% 67% Moderate buff signal. Review with patch context.
Scourge 86% Nerf 97% 77% Strong stable nerf signal.
Spirit Lifesteal 85% Buff 99% 67% Moderate buff signal. Review with patch context.
Slowing Bullets 82% Nerf 99% 67% Moderate nerf signal. Review with patch context.
Mystic Reverb 80% Nerf 100% 65% Moderate nerf signal. Review with patch context.
Improved Spirit 38% Nerf 98% Disagreement Random Forest and Gradient Boosting's bootstrap re-run land on different final labels. This doesn't directly contradict the score above, but treat this row as unreliable.
Frenzy 35% Nerf 73% Disagreement Random Forest and Gradient Boosting's bootstrap re-run land on different final labels. This doesn't directly contradict the score above, but treat this row as unreliable.
Lifestrike 32% Buff 96% Disagreement Random Forest and Gradient Boosting's bootstrap re-run land on different final labels. This doesn't directly contradict the score above, but treat this row as unreliable.
Spirit Strike 32% Nerf 81% Disagreement Random Forest and Gradient Boosting's bootstrap re-run land on different final labels. This doesn't directly contradict the score above, but treat this row as unreliable.
Quicksilver Reload 31% Nerf 64% Disagreement Random Forest and Gradient Boosting's bootstrap re-run land on different final labels. This doesn't directly contradict the score above, but treat this row as unreliable.
Ballistic Enchantment 31% Nerf 76% Disagreement Random Forest and Gradient Boosting's bootstrap re-run land on different final labels. This doesn't directly contradict the score above, but treat this row as unreliable.
Escalating Exposure 31% Nerf 100% Disagreement Random Forest and Gradient Boosting's bootstrap re-run land on different final labels. This doesn't directly contradict the score above, but treat this row as unreliable.
Enduring Speed 31% Buff 87% Disagreement Random Forest and Gradient Boosting's bootstrap re-run land on different final labels. This doesn't directly contradict the score above, but treat this row as unreliable.
Sharpshooter 30% Nerf 97% Disagreement Random Forest and Gradient Boosting's bootstrap re-run land on different final labels. This doesn't directly contradict the score above, but treat this row as unreliable.
High-Velocity Rounds 29% Buff 98% Disagreement Random Forest and Gradient Boosting's bootstrap re-run land on different final labels. This doesn't directly contradict the score above, but treat this row as unreliable.
Blood Tribute 29% Buff 62% Disagreement Random Forest and Gradient Boosting's bootstrap re-run land on different final labels. This doesn't directly contradict the score above, but treat this row as unreliable.
Stalker 29% Nerf 100% Disagreement Random Forest and Gradient Boosting's bootstrap re-run land on different final labels. This doesn't directly contradict the score above, but treat this row as unreliable.
Armor Piercer 28% Buff 99% 50% Unstable prediction. Treat this as a watch-list item, not a call.
Crippling Headshot 28% Nerf 89% Disagreement Random Forest and Gradient Boosting's bootstrap re-run land on different final labels. This doesn't directly contradict the score above, but treat this row as unreliable.
Siphon Bullets 28% Nerf 99% Disagreement Random Forest and Gradient Boosting's bootstrap re-run land on different final labels. This doesn't directly contradict the score above, but treat this row as unreliable.
Melee Lifesteal 27% Buff 99% 43% Unstable prediction. Treat this as a watch-list item, not a call.
Weakening Headshot 27% Buff 97% Disagreement Random Forest and Gradient Boosting's bootstrap re-run land on different final labels. This doesn't directly contradict the score above, but treat this row as unreliable.
Spirit Shredder 26% Buff 100% Disagreement Random Forest and Gradient Boosting's bootstrap re-run land on different final labels. This doesn't directly contradict the score above, but treat this row as unreliable.
Magic Carpet 26% Buff 99% Disagreement Random Forest and Gradient Boosting's bootstrap re-run land on different final labels. This doesn't directly contradict the score above, but treat this row as unreliable.
Healing Tempo 26% Nerf 96% 50% Unstable prediction. Treat this as a watch-list item, not a call.
Trophy Collector 26% Nerf 81% Disagreement Random Forest and Gradient Boosting's bootstrap re-run land on different final labels. This doesn't directly contradict the score above, but treat this row as unreliable.
Arctic Blast 25% Nerf 52% Disagreement Random Forest and Gradient Boosting's bootstrap re-run land on different final labels. This doesn't directly contradict the score above, but treat this row as unreliable.
Echo Shard 25% Nerf 83% Disagreement Random Forest and Gradient Boosting's bootstrap re-run land on different final labels. This doesn't directly contradict the score above, but treat this row as unreliable.
Healing Booster 25% Buff 87% Disagreement Random Forest and Gradient Boosting's bootstrap re-run land on different final labels. This doesn't directly contradict the score above, but treat this row as unreliable.
Sprint Boots 24% Nerf 89% Disagreement Random Forest and Gradient Boosting's bootstrap re-run land on different final labels. This doesn't directly contradict the score above, but treat this row as unreliable.
Grit 22% Buff 100% 52% Unstable prediction. Treat this as a watch-list item, not a call.
Vortex Web 21% Buff 100% 53% Unstable prediction. Treat this as a watch-list item, not a call.