Deadlock Item Balance Predictions
Experimental model table for all current items
Generated from the current item change database and Deadlock API item stats.
Prediction Model

What this page is trying to do

This table is an experimental balance watch list, not a forecast. It does not know Valve's plans. It looks at item history, item type, cost, API item stats, win-rate movement, and usage signals to produce an exploratory model score, not a calibrated probability.

Read this first: the "no balance change" group has very few historical examples compared to the "balance change" group, and in validation the model did not reliably tell the two groups apart. A high experimental score mostly reflects that most items in the training data eventually changed — it is not yet a demonstrated forecast of a future patch. Treat every row as exploratory until the model is retrained and validated on dated, held-out patches.
Best read: use a high experimental score plus high bootstrap stability as the more interesting rows, and treat "Disagreement" rows as unreliable. Bootstrap stability comes from a separate resampled re-run of the models, not the same run behind the score and direction above — low stability means a model changed its mind when the data was resampled, or that Random Forest and Gradient Boosting's re-run did not land on the same label.
Source file dates for this build:
  • Random Forest change/direction predictions: 2026-08-11
  • Gradient Boosting change/direction predictions: 2026-08-11
  • Random Forest bootstrap stability: 2026-08-11
  • Gradient Boosting bootstrap stability: 2026-08-11
Experimental score
Random Forest's training-set score for "belongs in the balance-change group," not a calibrated probability of a future change. See the warning above.
Direction
Gradient Boosting guess for the likely direction if the item is changed.
Direction confidence
How strongly the direction model leans toward buff or nerf. Also a training-set score, not a calibrated probability.
Bootstrap stability
From a separate resampled re-run of the models (not the same run behind the score and direction above): how often that re-run landed on the same final prediction, and whether Random Forest and Gradient Boosting's re-run agreed on a label. Shows "Disagreement" when they don't — a sign the headline call is shaky, not a recheck of that exact call.
Notes
A plain-English warning label generated from the model scores and bootstrap stability.
Lasso Predictor Screen

The L1 logistic screen is the lasso-style step. It tries to zero out weaker predictors before the tree models run. Stage 1 predicts whether an item changes. Stage 2 only looks at changed items and predicts buff versus nerf.

Stage 1 only Stage 2 only Both stages use the default text color.

Kept predictors

  • current_cost
  • current_default_stat_count
  • days_since_last_change
  • avg_days_between_change_patches
  • unknown_change_count
  • first_change_date_ordinal
  • last_change_date_ordinal
  • item_id
  • api_global_wins
  • api_global_losses
  • api_global_matches
  • api_global_players
  • api_global_avg_sell_time_s
  • api_hero_matches_total
  • api_hero_avg_players
  • api_hero_max_players
  • api_hero_avg_buy_time_s
  • api_daily_bucket_count
  • api_daily_matches_total
  • api_daily_avg_players
  • buff_change_count
  • nerf_change_count
  • changes_last_180_days
  • api_global_avg_buy_time_s
  • api_global_avg_sell_time_relative
  • api_daily_avg_buy_time_s

Dropped predictors

  • is_current_item_guess
  • current_tier
  • current_enhanced_stat_count
  • has_enhanced
  • change_row_count
  • unique_patch_count
  • buff_change_count
  • nerf_change_count
  • rework_change_count
  • fix_change_count
  • added_change_count
  • removed_change_count
  • changes_last_30_days
  • changes_last_60_days
  • changes_last_90_days
  • changes_last_180_days
  • api_global_win_rate
  • api_global_loss_rate
  • api_global_avg_buy_time_s
  • api_global_avg_buy_time_relative
  • api_global_avg_sell_time_relative
  • api_hero_bucket_count
  • api_hero_avg_win_rate
  • api_hero_min_win_rate
  • api_hero_max_win_rate
  • api_daily_avg_win_rate
  • api_daily_min_win_rate
  • api_daily_max_win_rate
  • api_daily_last_win_rate
  • api_daily_first_win_rate
  • api_daily_win_rate_change
  • api_daily_win_rate_slope
  • api_daily_avg_buy_time_s
  • wiki_categories_Items|Tier 1 items|Spirit Items
  • wiki_categories_Items|Tier 1 items|Vitality Items
  • wiki_categories_Items|Tier 1 items|Weapon Items
  • wiki_categories_Items|Tier 2 items|Spirit Items
  • wiki_categories_Items|Tier 2 items|Vitality Items
  • wiki_categories_Items|Tier 2 items|Weapon Items
  • wiki_categories_Items|Tier 3 items|Spirit Items
  • wiki_categories_Items|Tier 3 items|Vitality Items
  • wiki_categories_Items|Tier 3 items|Weapon Items
  • wiki_categories_Items|Tier 4 items|Spirit Items
  • wiki_categories_Items|Tier 4 items|Vitality Items
  • wiki_categories_Items|Tier 4 items|Weapon Items
  • item_type_Spirit
  • item_type_Vitality
  • item_type_Weapon
  • item_name_infrequent_sklearn
  • api_item_type_upgrade
  • current_default_stat_count
  • unknown_change_count
Item Prediction Table

156 items are included. The table is sorted by highest experimental score first, then bootstrap stability.

Item Experimental score Direction Direction confidence Bootstrap stability Notes
Dispel Magic 100% Buff 62% 90% Strong stable buff signal.
Rescue Beam 99% Buff 63% 80% Strong stable buff signal.
Silence Wave 99% Nerf 62% 67% Moderate nerf signal. Review with patch context.
Disarming Hex 99% Buff 66% 98% Strong stable buff signal.
Tankbuster 99% Buff 51% 68% Change signal is present, but buff versus nerf direction is unclear.
Decay 99% Buff 56% 62% Change signal is present, but buff versus nerf direction is unclear.
Alchemical Fire 99% Buff 66% 95% Strong stable buff signal.
Spirit Sap 99% Buff 64% 88% Strong stable buff signal.
Slowing Hex 99% Nerf 64% 85% Strong stable nerf signal.
Suppressor 99% Buff 61% 70% Moderate buff signal. Review with patch context.
Toxic Bullets 98% Buff 78% 95% Strong stable buff signal.
Bullet Resilience 98% Buff 54% 78% Change signal is present, but buff versus nerf direction is unclear.
Restorative Locket 98% Buff 62% 73% Moderate buff signal. Review with patch context.
Witchmail 98% Buff 71% 67% Moderate buff signal. Review with patch context.
Mystic Slow 98% Buff 74% 95% Strong stable buff signal.
Escalating Resilience 98% Buff 69% 80% Strong stable buff signal.
Spirit Shredder Bullets 98% Nerf 57% 77% Change signal is present, but buff versus nerf direction is unclear.
Spirit Snatch 98% Buff 74% 98% Strong stable buff signal.
Spirit Rend 98% Nerf 67% 98% Strong stable nerf signal.
Rebuttal 98% Nerf 55% 65% Change signal is present, but buff versus nerf direction is unclear.
Surge of Power 98% Buff 78% 100% Strong stable buff signal.
Titanic Magazine 98% Buff 72% 93% Strong stable buff signal.
Juggernaut 98% Buff 64% 88% Strong stable buff signal.
Greater Expansion 98% Nerf 67% 87% Strong stable nerf signal.
Ethereal Shift 98% Buff 60% 78% Change signal is present, but buff versus nerf direction is unclear.
Unstoppable 98% Nerf 55% 75% Change signal is present, but buff versus nerf direction is unclear.
Healbane 98% Buff 55% 63% Change signal is present, but buff versus nerf direction is unclear.
Majestic Leap 98% Buff 72% 100% Strong stable buff signal.
Rusted Barrel 98% Buff 66% 93% Strong stable buff signal.
Superior Duration 98% Buff 52% 77% Change signal is present, but buff versus nerf direction is unclear.
Kinetic Dash 98% Nerf 62% 77% Strong stable nerf signal.
Mystic Burst 97% Nerf 50% 70% Change signal is present, but buff versus nerf direction is unclear.
Weapon Shielding 97% Buff 66% 60% Moderate buff signal. Review with patch context.
Vampiric Burst 97% Buff 67% 97% Strong stable buff signal.
Tesla Bullets 97% Nerf 61% 83% Strong stable nerf signal.
Metal Skin 97% Nerf 57% 82% Change signal is present, but buff versus nerf direction is unclear.
Counterspell 97% Buff 56% 57% Unstable prediction. Treat this as a watch-list item, not a call.
Healing Rite 97% Buff 79% 98% Strong stable buff signal.
Duration Extender 97% Buff 52% 85% Change signal is present, but buff versus nerf direction is unclear.
Return Fire 97% Buff 66% 83% Strong stable buff signal.
Colossus 97% Buff 58% 82% Change signal is present, but buff versus nerf direction is unclear.
Burst Fire 97% Buff 76% 98% Strong stable buff signal.
Diviner's Kevlar 97% Buff 73% 87% Strong stable buff signal.
Superior Cooldown 97% Nerf 60% 88% Strong stable nerf signal.
Bullet Resist Shredder 97% Nerf 60% 77% Strong stable nerf signal.
Express Shot 97% Nerf 51% 62% Change signal is present, but buff versus nerf direction is unclear.
Refresher 97% Nerf 77% 93% Strong stable nerf signal.
Mystic Vulnerability 97% Buff 72% 82% Strong stable buff signal.
Knockdown 96% Nerf 67% 93% Strong stable nerf signal.
Hunter's Aura 96% Buff 66% 92% Strong stable buff signal.
Battle Vest 96% Buff 71% 92% Strong stable buff signal.
Fleetfoot 96% Buff 66% 85% Strong stable buff signal.
Cultist Sacrifice 96% Buff 66% 90% Strong stable buff signal.
Inhibitor 96% Buff 54% 77% Change signal is present, but buff versus nerf direction is unclear.
Fortitude 96% Buff 78% 97% Strong stable buff signal.
Guardian Ward 96% Buff 66% 90% Strong stable buff signal.
Berserker 96% Nerf 57% 83% Change signal is present, but buff versus nerf direction is unclear.
Plated Armor 96% Buff 64% 70% Moderate buff signal. Review with patch context.
Mystic Shot 96% Nerf 59% 70% Change signal is present, but buff versus nerf direction is unclear.
Split Shot 96% Buff 59% 62% Change signal is present, but buff versus nerf direction is unclear.
Recharging Rush 96% Buff 70% 100% Strong stable buff signal.
Headhunter 96% Nerf 67% 95% Strong stable nerf signal.
Swift Striker 96% Buff 72% 93% Strong stable buff signal.
Arcane Surge 96% Buff 74% 92% Strong stable buff signal.
Torment Pulse 96% Buff 56% 88% Change signal is present, but buff versus nerf direction is unclear.
Silencer 96% Buff 58% 73% Change signal is present, but buff versus nerf direction is unclear.
Divine Barrier 96% Buff 68% 87% Strong stable buff signal.
Phantom Strike 96% Nerf 55% 72% Change signal is present, but buff versus nerf direction is unclear.
Spellslinger 95% Nerf 61% 77% Strong stable nerf signal.
Armor Piercing Rounds 95% Nerf 60% 77% Change signal is present, but buff versus nerf direction is unclear.
Intensifying Magazine 95% Nerf 64% 97% Strong stable nerf signal.
Crushing Fists 95% Buff 75% 90% Strong stable buff signal.
Hollow Point 95% Nerf 64% 88% Strong stable nerf signal.
Reactive Barrier 95% Nerf 63% 77% Strong stable nerf signal.
Spirit Shielding 95% Nerf 59% 67% Change signal is present, but buff versus nerf direction is unclear.
Rapid Recharge 95% Buff 62% 67% Moderate buff signal. Review with patch context.
Bullet Lifesteal 95% Buff 76% 85% Strong stable buff signal.
Debuff Reducer 95% Buff 60% 78% Strong stable buff signal.
Cursed Relic 95% Buff 58% 62% Change signal is present, but buff versus nerf direction is unclear.
Focus Lens 95% Buff 64% 87% Strong stable buff signal.
Enchanter's Emblem 95% Buff 51% 57% Unstable prediction. Treat this as a watch-list item, not a call.
Heroic Aura 94% Buff 75% 97% Strong stable buff signal.
Spirit Resilience 94% Buff 72% 95% Strong stable buff signal.
Boundless Spirit 94% Nerf 62% 92% Strong stable nerf signal.
Weighted Shots 94% Buff 61% 62% Moderate buff signal. Review with patch context.
Lucky Shot 94% Nerf 66% 98% Strong stable nerf signal.
Fury Trance 94% Buff 70% 97% Strong stable buff signal.
Stamina Mastery 94% Nerf 63% 82% Strong stable nerf signal.
Radiant Regeneration 94% Buff 74% 87% Strong stable buff signal.
Compress Cooldown 94% Nerf 77% 93% Strong stable nerf signal.
Long Range 94% Nerf 56% 63% Change signal is present, but buff versus nerf direction is unclear.
Extra Health 94% Buff 72% 97% Strong stable buff signal.
Veil Walker 94% Buff 74% 98% Strong stable buff signal.
Close Quarters 94% Buff 68% 95% Strong stable buff signal.
Restorative Shot 93% Buff 79% 97% Strong stable buff signal.
Glass Cannon 93% Nerf 72% 97% Strong stable nerf signal.
Extra Charge 93% Nerf 57% 55% Unstable prediction. Treat this as a watch-list item, not a call.
Transcendent Cooldown 93% Nerf 66% 98% Strong stable nerf signal.
Cold Front 93% Buff 71% 62% Moderate buff signal. Review with patch context.
Melee Charge 93% Nerf 74% 93% Strong stable nerf signal.
Spellbreaker 93% Buff 64% 85% Strong stable buff signal.
Extra Stamina 93% Nerf 64% 77% Strong stable nerf signal.
Ricochet 92% Nerf 63% 88% Strong stable nerf signal.
Monster Rounds 92% Buff 79% 83% Strong stable buff signal.
Spirit Burn 92% Nerf 58% 67% Change signal is present, but buff versus nerf direction is unclear.
Cheat Death 92% Nerf 62% 75% Strong stable nerf signal.
Indomitable 92% Buff 70% 88% Strong stable buff signal.
Point Blank 92% Buff 58% 78% Change signal is present, but buff versus nerf direction is unclear.
Healing Nova 92% Nerf 64% 82% Strong stable nerf signal.
Opening Rounds 92% Buff 56% 67% Change signal is present, but buff versus nerf direction is unclear.
Rapid Rounds 91% Buff 55% 67% Change signal is present, but buff versus nerf direction is unclear.
Extra Regen 91% Buff 64% 55% Unstable prediction. Treat this as a watch-list item, not a call.
Leech 91% Buff 76% 93% Strong stable buff signal.
Extra Spirit 91% Nerf 67% 73% Moderate nerf signal. Review with patch context.
Golden Goose Egg 90% Buff 79% 95% Strong stable buff signal.
Mystic Regeneration 90% Buff 75% 88% Strong stable buff signal.
Lightning Scroll 89% Buff 69% 57% Unstable prediction. Treat this as a watch-list item, not a call.
Extended Magazine 89% Buff 72% 95% Strong stable buff signal.
Scourge 89% Buff 56% 65% Change signal is present, but buff versus nerf direction is unclear.
Mystic Expansion 89% Nerf 51% 80% Change signal is present, but buff versus nerf direction is unclear.
Spiritual Overflow 89% Buff 61% 67% Moderate buff signal. Review with patch context.
Warp Stone 88% Nerf 64% 92% Strong stable nerf signal.
Active Reload 88% Buff 72% 80% Strong stable buff signal.
Headshot Booster 87% Buff 63% 85% Strong stable buff signal.
Shadow Weave 87% Buff 64% 80% Strong stable buff signal.
Capacitor 86% Nerf 65% 87% Strong stable nerf signal.
Slowing Bullets 86% Nerf 55% 80% Change signal is present, but buff versus nerf direction is unclear.
Mercurial Magnum 85% Buff 75% 100% Strong stable buff signal.
Mystic Reverb 85% Buff 55% 77% Change signal is present, but buff versus nerf direction is unclear.
Spirit Lifesteal 84% Buff 59% 75% Change signal is present, but buff versus nerf direction is unclear.
Infuser 82% Buff 63% 62% Moderate buff signal. Review with patch context.
Improved Spirit 38% Nerf 77% Disagreement Random Forest and Gradient Boosting's bootstrap re-run land on different final labels. This doesn't directly contradict the score above, but treat this row as unreliable.
Lifestrike 36% Buff 61% Disagreement Random Forest and Gradient Boosting's bootstrap re-run land on different final labels. This doesn't directly contradict the score above, but treat this row as unreliable.
Frenzy 36% Nerf 55% Disagreement Random Forest and Gradient Boosting's bootstrap re-run land on different final labels. This doesn't directly contradict the score above, but treat this row as unreliable.
Spirit Strike 33% Nerf 70% Disagreement Random Forest and Gradient Boosting's bootstrap re-run land on different final labels. This doesn't directly contradict the score above, but treat this row as unreliable.
Quicksilver Reload 32% Buff 60% 48% Unstable prediction. Treat this as a watch-list item, not a call.
Melee Lifesteal 32% Buff 82% Disagreement Random Forest and Gradient Boosting's bootstrap re-run land on different final labels. This doesn't directly contradict the score above, but treat this row as unreliable.
High-Velocity Rounds 31% Buff 72% Disagreement Random Forest and Gradient Boosting's bootstrap re-run land on different final labels. This doesn't directly contradict the score above, but treat this row as unreliable.
Sharpshooter 30% Buff 62% Disagreement Random Forest and Gradient Boosting's bootstrap re-run land on different final labels. This doesn't directly contradict the score above, but treat this row as unreliable.
Escalating Exposure 30% Buff 61% Disagreement Random Forest and Gradient Boosting's bootstrap re-run land on different final labels. This doesn't directly contradict the score above, but treat this row as unreliable.
Enduring Speed 30% Nerf 66% Disagreement Random Forest and Gradient Boosting's bootstrap re-run land on different final labels. This doesn't directly contradict the score above, but treat this row as unreliable.
Magic Carpet 29% Buff 74% Disagreement Random Forest and Gradient Boosting's bootstrap re-run land on different final labels. This doesn't directly contradict the score above, but treat this row as unreliable.
Ballistic Enchantment 29% Buff 61% Disagreement Random Forest and Gradient Boosting's bootstrap re-run land on different final labels. This doesn't directly contradict the score above, but treat this row as unreliable.
Grit 29% Buff 74% Disagreement Random Forest and Gradient Boosting's bootstrap re-run land on different final labels. This doesn't directly contradict the score above, but treat this row as unreliable.
Healing Booster 28% Buff 77% Disagreement Random Forest and Gradient Boosting's bootstrap re-run land on different final labels. This doesn't directly contradict the score above, but treat this row as unreliable.
Healing Tempo 28% Nerf 62% Disagreement Random Forest and Gradient Boosting's bootstrap re-run land on different final labels. This doesn't directly contradict the score above, but treat this row as unreliable.
Weakening Headshot 28% Nerf 51% Disagreement Random Forest and Gradient Boosting's bootstrap re-run land on different final labels. This doesn't directly contradict the score above, but treat this row as unreliable.
Blood Tribute 28% Buff 63% Disagreement Random Forest and Gradient Boosting's bootstrap re-run land on different final labels. This doesn't directly contradict the score above, but treat this row as unreliable.
Stalker 27% Nerf 71% Disagreement Random Forest and Gradient Boosting's bootstrap re-run land on different final labels. This doesn't directly contradict the score above, but treat this row as unreliable.
Crippling Headshot 27% Nerf 51% Disagreement Random Forest and Gradient Boosting's bootstrap re-run land on different final labels. This doesn't directly contradict the score above, but treat this row as unreliable.
Sprint Boots 26% Nerf 62% Disagreement Random Forest and Gradient Boosting's bootstrap re-run land on different final labels. This doesn't directly contradict the score above, but treat this row as unreliable.
Vortex Web 26% Buff 73% Disagreement Random Forest and Gradient Boosting's bootstrap re-run land on different final labels. This doesn't directly contradict the score above, but treat this row as unreliable.
Echo Shard 25% Buff 51% Disagreement Random Forest and Gradient Boosting's bootstrap re-run land on different final labels. This doesn't directly contradict the score above, but treat this row as unreliable.
Trophy Collector 25% Buff 63% Disagreement Random Forest and Gradient Boosting's bootstrap re-run land on different final labels. This doesn't directly contradict the score above, but treat this row as unreliable.
Siphon Bullets 23% Nerf 60% Disagreement Random Forest and Gradient Boosting's bootstrap re-run land on different final labels. This doesn't directly contradict the score above, but treat this row as unreliable.
Arctic Blast 20% Buff 75% Disagreement Random Forest and Gradient Boosting's bootstrap re-run land on different final labels. This doesn't directly contradict the score above, but treat this row as unreliable.