Deadlock Hero Balance Predictions
Infernus buff/nerf predictor prototype
Generated from the Infernus predictor DuckDB, recent patch history, and a three-stage prediction model.
Prediction Model
Infernus Buff/Nerf Watch
This page is the hero-side version of the item prediction screen. The target is whether a hero looks more likely to be buffed, nerfed, or left alone in a future patch. This first page is Infernus-only so the predictors can be reviewed before expanding to every hero.
Best read: this is now a three-stage experiment. It first asks whether Infernus is likely to change, then which broad mechanic would be selected, then the direction of that selected mechanic. Later stages are conditional and must not be read as standalone certainty.
- Stage 1
- Will Infernus receive any balance change in the next patch?
- Stage 2
- If Infernus changes, which mechanic family is most likely to be selected?
- Stage 3
- If that family is selected, does its patch direction look like buff, nerf, or mixed/rework?
- Future learning
- Weekly snapshots preserve hero stats and ability values over time. They are enabled as model features only after changed and unchanged patches both have adequate coverage.
Three-Stage Next-Patch Forecast
1
Will Infernus change?
16.7%
Estimated chance of any Infernus balance change. No-change estimate: 83.3%.
Disclaimer: Experimental. This is based on one hero's patch history and has not been proven accurate — Stage 1 and Stage 2 don't yet beat a simple "no change" guess on holdout data. Treat every number on this page as a rough signal, not a confirmed forecast.
Stages 2 and 3: target and direction if Infernus changes
| Mechanic | Selected if changed | Direction | Buff if selected | Nerf if selected | Mixed/rework if selected | Combined priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weapon | 12.5% | Buff | 59.5% | 5.5% | 35.0% | 2.1% |
| Concussive Combustion | 10.1% | Buff | 63.8% | 0.9% | 35.3% | 1.7% |
| Flame Dash | 9.9% | Buff | 61.5% | 0.9% | 37.6% | 1.7% |
| Napalm | 7.7% | Buff | 54.8% | 5.4% | 39.8% | 1.3% |
| Afterburn | 7.6% | Buff | 52.9% | 1.7% | 45.4% | 1.3% |
| Spirit | 2.1% | Buff | 38.2% | 28.3% | 33.5% | 0.3% |
| Vitality | 1.7% | Buff | 38.2% | 28.3% | 33.5% | 0.3% |
Combined priority multiplies Stage 1 by Stage 2 to help sort the watchlist. It is not a calibrated probability that the named mechanic will change.
Validation and Data Readiness
Every stage uses older patches for training and newer patches for testing. The current patch calendar contains 138 update dates through 2026-06-12.
| Stage | Test rows | Balanced accuracy | Macro F1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stage 1 - hero changedWhether Infernus receives any balance change. | 28 | 50.0% | 0.462 |
| Stage 2 - mechanic selectedWhich mechanic family is selected if Infernus changes. | 196 | 50.0% | 0.487 |
| Stage 3 - conditional directionBuff, nerf, or mixed/rework after a mechanic is selected. | 2 | 0.0% | 0.000 |
Performance feature gate: withheld. Historical pre-patch win-rate coverage is 0.0%; the required coverage is 80.0%. Performance features are withheld because missingness is too sparse or too strongly associated with whether Infernus changed.
The weekly collector now stores all hero performance, base stats, and ability properties without overwriting prior snapshots. Once enough unchanged and changed patches have comparable coverage, performance and ability-strength features can enter training without leaking the answer.
Infernus Patch Changes
34 Infernus patch-change rows are included from the recent patch window.
| Patch | Predictor | Direction | Before | After | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-12 | fixed_afterburn_max_duration_refreshing_not_properly_accounting_for_both_debuffability:afterburn | Rework | Fixed Afterburn Max duration refreshing not properly accounting for both Debuff Resist and +Ability Duration | ||
| 2026-06-12 | fixed_concussive_combustion_cooldown_not_updating_when_getting_the_t2_or_other_cability:concussive_combustion | Rework | Fixed Concussive Combustion cooldown not updating when getting the T2 or other CD reducing items when the ability is on cooldown | ||
| 2026-05-22 | concussive_combustion_t3ability:concussive_combustion | Buff | +0.75s Stun Duration | +0 | Concussive Combustion T3 increased from +0.75s Stun Duration to +0.9s |
| 2026-05-22 | bullet_sizeweapon | Buff | 3 | 4 | Bullet size increased from 3 to 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | flame_dash_dpsability:flame_dash | Rework | Flame Dash DPS now does half damage to objective | ||
| 2026-04-30 | flame_dash_dps_spirit_scalingability:flame_dash | Nerf | 1.0 | 0 | Flame Dash DPS spirit scaling reduced from 1.0 to 0.7 |
| 2026-03-06 | afterburn_t1ability:afterburn | Rework | "-20% Spirit Damage" | "+14 DPS" | Afterburn T1 changed from "-20% Spirit Damage" to "+14 DPS" |
| 2026-03-06 | afterburn_t2ability:afterburn | Rework | +1s Burn Duration | -35% Spirit Damage | Afterburn T2 changed from +1s Burn Duration to -35% Spirit Damage |
| 2026-03-06 | afterburn_t3ability:afterburn | Rework | "+23 DPS" | "+3s Max Burn Duration" (Base duration is the same, but can buildup after igniting to grow to max burn duration, abilities only refresh up to the base) | Afterburn T3 changed from "+23 DPS" to "+3s Max Burn Duration" (Base duration is the same, but can buildup after igniting to grow to max burn duration, abilities only refresh up to the base) |
| 2026-03-06 | melee_canability:afterburn | Rework | Melee can now buildup afterburn (20% for light melee, 35% for heavy) | ||
| 2026-03-06 | concussive_combustion_castability:concussive_combustion | Rework | Concussive Combustion cast now causes camera to move back a bit | ||
| 2026-03-06 | concussive_combustion_cooldownability:concussive_combustion | Buff | 140s | 165s | Concussive Combustion cooldown increased from 140s to 165s |
| 2026-03-06 | concussive_combustion_damageability:concussive_combustion | Nerf | 150 | 125 | Concussive Combustion damage reduced from 150 to 125 |
| 2026-03-06 | concussive_combustion_delayability:concussive_combustion | Buff | 3s | 3 | Concussive Combustion delay increased from 3s to 3.25s |
| 2026-03-06 | concussive_combustion_radiusability:concussive_combustion | Nerf | 13m | 12m | Concussive Combustion radius reduced from 13m to 12m |
| 2026-03-06 | concussive_combustion_t1ability:concussive_combustion | Rework | "-35s Cooldown" | "+100 Damage" | Concussive Combustion T1 changed from "-35s Cooldown" to "+100 Damage" |
| 2026-03-06 | concussive_combustion_t2ability:concussive_combustion | Buff | +65% Explosion Lifesteal | +85% | Concussive Combustion T2 increased from +65% Explosion Lifesteal to +85% |
| 2026-03-06 | concussive_combustion_t2ability:concussive_combustion | Rework | "+0.5s Stun and +3m Radius" | "-65s Cooldown and +65% Explosion Heal" | Concussive Combustion T2 changed from "+0.5s Stun and +3m Radius" to "-65s Cooldown and +65% Explosion Heal" |
| 2026-03-06 | concussive_combustion_t3ability:concussive_combustion | Rework | "+94 Damage and Heal for 70% damage" | "+0 | Concussive Combustion T3 changed from "+94 Damage and Heal for 70% damage" to "+0.75s Stun and +10m Radius" |
| 2026-03-06 | flame_dash_dps_spirit_scalingability:flame_dash | Buff | 0.8 | 1 | Flame Dash DPS spirit scaling increased from 0.8 to 1.0 |
| 2026-03-06 | flame_dash_speedability:flame_dash | Rework | Flame Dash speed now moves faster by the same amount of speed above your base | ||
| 2026-03-06 | flame_dash_t1ability:flame_dash | Rework | "-25% Fire Rate" | "-12s Cooldown" | Flame Dash T1 changed from "-25% Fire Rate" to "-12s Cooldown" |
| 2026-03-06 | flame_dash_t2_dpsability:flame_dash | Buff | Flame Dash T2 DPS now also increases trail duration by 1s | ||
| 2026-03-06 | flame_dash_t2_dpsability:flame_dash | Nerf | +27 | +20 | Flame Dash T2 DPS reduced from +27 to +20 |
| 2026-03-06 | flame_dash_t3ability:flame_dash | Buff | Flame Dash T3 now also grants +1 Charge | ||
| 2026-03-06 | flame_dash_t3ability:flame_dash | Nerf | Flame Dash T3 no longer reduces cooldown by 15s | ||
| 2026-03-06 | flame_dash_t3_time_between_chargesability:flame_dash | Nerf | 20s | 14s | Flame Dash T3 time between charges reduced from 20s to 14s |
| 2026-03-06 | napalm_amplified_damage_takenability:napalm | Nerf | 20% | 16% | Napalm amplified damage taken reduced from 20% to 16% |
| 2026-03-06 | napalm_damageability:napalm | Nerf | 46 | 40 | Napalm damage reduced from 46 to 40 |
| 2026-03-06 | napalm_damage_spirit_scalingability:napalm | Buff | 0.3 | 0 | Napalm damage spirit scaling increased from 0.3 to 0.6 |
| 2026-03-06 | napalm_t2_lifestealability:napalm | Buff | 10% | 15% | Napalm T2 lifesteal increased from 10% to 15% |
| 2026-03-06 | reload_timeweapon | Nerf | 2.491 | 2 | Reload time reduced from 2.491 to 2.25 |
| 2025-11-21 | afterburn_buildup_isability:afterburn | Rework | Afterburn buildup is now 10% slower on body shots | ||
| 2025-11-21 | napalm_t3_damage_ampability:napalm | Nerf | +20% | +17% | Napalm T3 damage amp reduced from +20% to +17% |
Hero Balance Predictions
Infernus buff/nerf prototype
Forecasts whether Infernus is likely to change next patch, using recent patch history and the Infernus predictor DuckDB.