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Prediction Model

Holliday Buff/Nerf Watch

This page is the hero-side version of the item prediction screen. The target is whether a hero looks more likely to be buffed, nerfed, or left alone in a future patch. This first page is Holliday-only so the predictors can be reviewed before expanding to every hero.

Best read: this is now a three-stage experiment. It first asks whether Holliday is likely to change, then which broad mechanic would be selected, then the direction of that selected mechanic. Later stages are conditional and must not be read as standalone certainty.

Stage 1: Will Holliday receive any balance change in the next patch?
Stage 2: If Holliday changes, which mechanic family is most likely to be selected?
Stage 3: If that family is selected, does its patch direction look like buff, nerf, or mixed/rework?
Future learning: Weekly snapshots preserve hero stats and ability values over time. They are enabled as model features only after changed and unchanged patches both have adequate coverage.

Three-Stage Next-Patch Forecast

1

Will Holliday change?

27.7%

Estimated chance of any Holliday balance change. No-change estimate: 72.3%.

Disclaimer: Experimental. This is based on one hero's patch history and has not been proven accurate — Stage 1 and Stage 2 don't yet beat a simple "no change" guess on holdout data. Treat every number on this page as a rough signal, not a confirmed forecast.

Stages 2 and 3: target and direction if Holliday changes

Mechanic	Selected if changed	Direction	Buff if selected	Nerf if selected	Mixed/rework if selected	Combined priority
Crackshot	19.6%	Mixed Or Rework	38.0%	17.4%	44.7%	5.4%
Spirit	17.6%	Mixed Or Rework	38.0%	17.4%	44.7%	4.9%
Powder Keg	15.7%	Buff	49.2%	4.4%	46.5%	4.3%
Bounce Pad	15.5%	Mixed Or Rework	46.8%	2.5%	50.7%	4.3%
Spirit Lasso	5.0%	Mixed Or Rework	45.0%	9.3%	45.7%	1.4%
Weapon	4.8%	Buff	48.4%	7.8%	43.9%	1.3%
Vitality	3.5%	Buff	47.7%	6.2%	46.1%	1.0%

Combined priority multiplies Stage 1 by Stage 2 to help sort the watchlist. It is not a calibrated probability that the named mechanic will change.

Validation and Data Readiness

Every stage uses older patches for training and newer patches for testing. The current patch calendar contains 138 update dates through 2026-06-12.

Stage	Test rows	Balanced accuracy	Macro F1
Stage 1 - hero changedWhether Holliday receives any balance change.	28	50.0%	0.472
Stage 2 - mechanic selectedWhich mechanic family is selected if Holliday changes.	196	50.0%	0.492
Stage 3 - conditional directionBuff, nerf, or mixed/rework after a mechanic is selected.	2	0.0%	0.000

Performance feature gate: withheld. Historical pre-patch win-rate coverage is 0.0%; the required coverage is 80.0%. Performance features are withheld because missingness is too sparse or too strongly associated with whether Holliday changed.

The weekly collector now stores all hero performance, base stats, and ability properties without overwriting prior snapshots. Once enough unchanged and changed patches have comparable coverage, performance and ability-strength features can enter training without leaking the answer.

Holliday Patch Changes

20 Holliday patch-change rows are included from the recent patch window.

Patch	Predictor	Direction	Before	After	Notes
2026-06-12	bounce_pad_landing_radiusability:bounce_pad	Nerf	12m	9m	Bounce Pad landing radius reduced from 12m to 9m
2026-06-12	bounce_pad_t3ability:bounce_pad	Buff	"+68 Stomp Damage and Improved Spirit Scaling"	"+0	Bounce Pad T3 changed from "+68 Stomp Damage and Improved Spirit Scaling" to "+0.7s Stomp Stun" (only triggers from Holliday)
2026-06-12	fixed_various_issues_with_placing_bounce_pad_on_elevated_areasability:bounce_pad	Rework			Fixed various issues with placing bounce pad on elevated areas
2026-06-12	powder_kegability:powder_keg	Rework			Powder Keg now has an alt cast behavior to place the barrel at her feet
2026-06-12	powder_kegability:powder_keg	Rework			Powder Keg now starts with 2 charges
2026-06-12	powder_keg_charge_timeability:powder_keg	Buff	3.5s	7s	Powder Keg Charge Time increased from 3.5s to 7s
2026-06-12	powder_keg_spirit_scalingability:powder_keg	Nerf	1.6	1	Powder Keg spirit scaling reduced from 1.6 to 1.4
2026-06-12	powder_keg_t2ability:powder_keg	Rework	"+58 Damage"	"+1 Charge"	Powder Keg T2 changed from "+58 Damage" to "+1 Charge"
2026-06-12	powder_keg_t3ability:powder_keg	Rework	"+2 Charges and +0.4s Displacement"	"+100 Damage, +0	Powder Keg T3 changed from "+2 Charges and +0.4s Displacement" to "+100 Damage, +0.5 Spirit Scaling and -5s Charge Time"
2026-06-12	powder_keg_various_improvements_to_the_launch_angles_velocities_and_feel_of_castingability:powder_keg	Rework			Powder Keg various improvements to the launch angles, velocities and feel of casting
2026-05-22	health_regenvitality	Buff	1	2	Health regen increased from 1 to 2
2026-05-22	base_bullet_damageweapon	Buff	18.8	19	Base bullet damage increased from 18.8 to 19.7
2026-04-30	spirit_lasso_t1ability:spirit_lasso	Buff	+68 Damage	+80	Spirit Lasso T1 increased from +68 Damage to +80
2026-04-30	spirit_lasso_t3ability:spirit_lasso	Buff	-30s Cooldown	-50s	Spirit Lasso T3 increased from -30s Cooldown to -50s
2026-04-30	fixed_rising_ram_interrupting_lassovitality	Rework			Fixed Rising Ram interrupting Lasso
2025-11-21	bounce_pad_damageability:bounce_pad	Nerf	80	60	Bounce Pad damage reduced from 80 to 60
2025-11-21	fixed_a_bug_where_you_could_get_extra_speed_distance_with_dash_jump_bounce_pad_tability:bounce_pad	Rework			Fixed a bug where you could get extra speed/distance with dash jump/bounce pad timing
2025-11-21	base_damagevitality	Nerf	22	18	Base damage reduced from 22 to 18
2025-11-21	base_regenvitality	Nerf	2.0	1	Base regen reduced from 2.0 to 1.0
2025-11-21	base_bullet_growthweapon	Nerf	1.23	1	Base bullet growth reduced from 1.23 to 1.04