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Prediction Model

Haze Buff/Nerf Watch

This page is the hero-side version of the item prediction screen. The target is whether a hero looks more likely to be buffed, nerfed, or left alone in a future patch. This first page is Haze-only so the predictors can be reviewed before expanding to every hero.

Best read: this is now a three-stage experiment. It first asks whether Haze is likely to change, then which broad mechanic would be selected, then the direction of that selected mechanic. Later stages are conditional and must not be read as standalone certainty.

Stage 1: Will Haze receive any balance change in the next patch?
Stage 2: If Haze changes, which mechanic family is most likely to be selected?
Stage 3: If that family is selected, does its patch direction look like buff, nerf, or mixed/rework?
Future learning: Weekly snapshots preserve hero stats and ability values over time. They are enabled as model features only after changed and unchanged patches both have adequate coverage.

Three-Stage Next-Patch Forecast

1

Will Haze change?

65.4%

Estimated chance of any Haze balance change. No-change estimate: 34.6%.

Disclaimer: Experimental. This is based on one hero's patch history and has not been proven accurate — Stage 1 and Stage 2 don't yet beat a simple "no change" guess on holdout data. Treat every number on this page as a rough signal, not a confirmed forecast.

Stages 2 and 3: target and direction if Haze changes

Mechanic	Selected if changed	Direction	Buff if selected	Nerf if selected	Mixed/rework if selected	Combined priority
Fixation	35.7%	Mixed Or Rework	37.1%	1.9%	60.9%	23.4%
Sleep Dagger	28.0%	Mixed Or Rework	41.0%	0.5%	58.4%	18.3%
Smoke Bomb	25.9%	Mixed Or Rework	31.3%	4.2%	64.5%	17.0%
Bullet Dance	8.7%	Mixed Or Rework	47.2%	0.8%	52.0%	5.7%
Vitality	2.4%	Mixed Or Rework	24.9%	23.5%	51.5%	1.6%
Spirit	2.3%	Mixed Or Rework	35.3%	14.0%	50.8%	1.5%
Weapon	2.1%	Mixed Or Rework	24.9%	23.5%	51.5%	1.4%

Combined priority multiplies Stage 1 by Stage 2 to help sort the watchlist. It is not a calibrated probability that the named mechanic will change.

Validation and Data Readiness

Every stage uses older patches for training and newer patches for testing. The current patch calendar contains 147 update dates through 2026-08-02.

Stage	Test rows	Balanced accuracy	Macro F1
Stage 1 - hero changedWhether Haze receives any balance change.	30	50.0%	0.444
Stage 2 - mechanic selectedWhich mechanic family is selected if Haze changes.	210	50.0%	0.485
Stage 3 - conditional directionBuff, nerf, or mixed/rework after a mechanic is selected.	3	0.0%	0.000

Performance feature gate: withheld. Historical pre-patch win-rate coverage is 6.1%; the required coverage is 80.0%. Performance features are withheld because missingness is too sparse or too strongly associated with whether Haze changed.

The weekly collector now stores all hero performance, base stats, and ability properties without overwriting prior snapshots. Once enough unchanged and changed patches have comparable coverage, performance and ability-strength features can enter training without leaking the answer.

Haze Patch Changes

43 Haze patch-change rows are included from the recent patch window.

Patch	Predictor	Direction	Before	After	Notes
2026-07-28	fixation_t3ability:fixation	Nerf	+0.14 per Stack	+0	Fixation T3 reduced from +0.14 per Stack to +0.11
2026-07-28	fixation_t3ability:fixation	Buff			Fixation T3 now also scales with Weapon Damage (0.0003)
2026-07-28	sleep_dagger_damage_spirit_scalingability:sleep_dagger	Nerf	2.8	2	Sleep Dagger damage spirit scaling reduced from 2.8 to 2.2
2026-07-28	sleep_dagger_t2ability:sleep_dagger	Rework	“-17s Cooldown and Applies 15 Fixation Stacks”	“+1s Sleep Duration and Applies 15 Fixation Stacks”	Sleep Dagger T2 changed from “-17s Cooldown and Applies 15 Fixation Stacks” to “+1s Sleep Duration and Applies 15 Fixation Stacks”
2026-07-28	sleep_dagger_t3ability:sleep_dagger	Rework	“+1s Sleep Duration and -50% Move and Dash Speed for 3s on wake-up”	“-17s Cooldown and -50% Move and Dash Speed for 3s on wake-up”	Sleep Dagger T3 changed from “+1s Sleep Duration and -50% Move and Dash Speed for 3s on wake-up” to “-17s Cooldown and -50% Move and Dash Speed for 3s on wake-up”
2026-07-28	sleep_dagger_wake_up_time_spirit_scalingability:sleep_dagger	Nerf	0.003	0	Sleep Dagger wake up time spirit scaling reduced from 0.003 to 0.002
2026-07-09	sleep_dagger_t2ability:sleep_dagger	Buff			Sleep Dagger T2 now also applies 15 Fixation Stacks
2026-07-09	sleep_dagger_t2ability:sleep_dagger	Nerf	-18s Cooldown	-17s	Sleep Dagger T2 reduced from -18s Cooldown to -17s
2026-06-30	sleep_dagger_t1ability:sleep_dagger	Buff	-8% Bullet Resist	-10%	Sleep Dagger T1 increased from -8% Bullet Resist to -10%
2026-06-30	sleep_dagger_t2ability:sleep_dagger	Buff	-17s Cooldown	-18s	Sleep Dagger T2 increased from -17s Cooldown to -18s
2026-06-30	smoke_bomb_t3ability:smoke_bomb	Buff	+40% Bullet Lifesteal	+50%	Smoke Bomb T3 increased from +40% Bullet Lifesteal to +50%
2026-05-22	fixation_t3ability:fixation	Buff	+0.12	+0	Fixation T3 increased from +0.12 to +0.14
2026-04-30	bullet_danceability:bullet_dance	Rework			Bullet Dance now has 30% evasion in the base ability
2026-04-30	bullet_dance_rangeability:bullet_dance	Buff	15m	16m	Bullet Dance range increased from 15m to 16m
2026-04-30	bullet_dance_t2ability:bullet_dance	Rework	"+10% Fire Rate and -45s Cooldown"	"+10% Fire Rate and +3m Move Speed"	Bullet Dance T2 changed from "+10% Fire Rate and -45s Cooldown" to "+10% Fire Rate and +3m Move Speed"
2026-04-30	bullet_dance_t3ability:bullet_dance	Rework	"+60% Evasion and +4m Move Speed"	"+40% Evasion and -75s Cooldown"	Bullet Dance T3 changed from "+60% Evasion and +4m Move Speed" to "+40% Evasion and -75s Cooldown"
2026-04-30	restored_being_able_to_slide_while_using_bullet_danceability:bullet_dance	Rework			Restored being able to slide while using Bullet Dance
2026-03-06	bullet_dance_base_abilityability:bullet_dance	Rework			Bullet Dance base ability now has 60% Evasion
2026-03-06	bullet_dance_bonus_bullet_damageability:bullet_dance	Nerf	10	7	Bullet Dance Bonus Bullet Damage reduced from 10 to 7
2026-03-06	bullet_dance_duration_spirit_scalingability:bullet_dance	Buff	0.06	0	Bullet Dance duration spirit scaling increased from 0.06 to 0.08
2026-03-06	bullet_dance_fire_rate_bonusability:bullet_dance	Nerf	30%	20%	Bullet Dance Fire Rate bonus reduced from 30% to 20%
2026-03-06	bullet_dance_t1ability:bullet_dance	Buff	+4 Bullet Damage	+7	Bullet Dance T1 increased from +4 Bullet Damage to +7
2026-03-06	bullet_dance_t2ability:bullet_dance	Buff			Bullet Dance T2 now also increases Fire Rate by +10%
2026-03-06	bullet_dance_t3ability:bullet_dance	Nerf			Bullet Dance T3 no longer adds 60% Bullet Evasion
2026-03-06	bullet_dance_t3ability:bullet_dance	Buff			Bullet Dance T3 now also fires at an additional target
2026-03-06	fixationability:fixation	Nerf	+0.2 Weapon Damage per stack	+0	Fixation reduced from +0.2 Weapon Damage per stack to +0.18
2026-03-06	fixation_t1ability:fixation	Nerf	+50 Spirit Damage	+40	Fixation T1 reduced from +50 Spirit Damage to +40
2026-03-06	fixation_t1_spirit_scalingability:fixation	Buff	0.37	0	Fixation T1 spirit scaling increased from 0.37 to 0.8
2026-03-06	fixation_t3ability:fixation	Buff	+0.12 Weapon Damage	+0	Fixation T3 increased from +0.12 Weapon Damage to +0.14
2026-03-06	sleep_dagger_cooldownability:sleep_dagger	Buff	26s	30s	Sleep Dagger cooldown increased from 26s to 30s
2026-03-06	sleep_dagger_sleep_durationability:sleep_dagger	Nerf	3s	2	Sleep Dagger Sleep duration reduced from 3s to 2.75s
2026-03-06	sleep_dagger_sleep_move_speedability:sleep_dagger	Nerf	2m/s	1	Sleep Dagger Sleep move speed reduced from 2m/s to 1.5m/s
2026-03-06	sleep_dagger_t1ability:sleep_dagger	Rework	"Removes 1 Stamina"	"-8% Bullet Resist Reduction for 6s"	Sleep Dagger T1 changed from "Removes 1 Stamina" to "-8% Bullet Resist Reduction for 6s"
2026-03-06	sleep_dagger_t2ability:sleep_dagger	Rework	"-12s Cooldown and -60% Stamina for 6s"	"-15s Cooldown"	Sleep Dagger T2 changed from "-12s Cooldown and -60% Stamina for 6s" to "-15s Cooldown"
2026-03-06	sleep_dagger_t3ability:sleep_dagger	Rework	"-12% Bullet Resist and -35% Fire Rate for 6s on wakeup"	"+0	Sleep Dagger T3 changed from "-12% Bullet Resist and -35% Fire Rate for 6s on wakeup" to "+0.75s Sleep Duration. -50% Move and Dash Slow for 2.5s on wakeup"
2026-03-06	sleep_dagger_wake_up_delayability:sleep_dagger	Nerf			Sleep Dagger Wake Up delay no longer increases with spirit scaling
2026-03-06	smoke_bombability:smoke_bomb	Nerf			Smoke Bomb no longer has base +2m Invis Sprint Speed
2026-03-06	smoke_bomb_cooldownability:smoke_bomb	Buff	30s	33s	Smoke Bomb cooldown increased from 30s to 33s
2026-03-06	smoke_bomb_duration_spirit_scalingability:smoke_bomb	Nerf	0.18	0	Smoke Bomb duration spirit scaling reduced from 0.18 to 0.08
2026-03-06	smoke_bomb_t1ability:smoke_bomb	Buff	+5m Invis Sprint Speed	+7m	Smoke Bomb T1 increased from +5m Invis Sprint Speed to +7m
2026-03-06	smoke_bomb_t2ability:smoke_bomb	Rework	"+10% Bullet Lifesteal"	"Enables 2 Ability Charges"	Smoke Bomb T2 changed from "+10% Bullet Lifesteal" to "Enables 2 Ability Charges"
2026-03-06	smoke_bomb_t3ability:smoke_bomb	Rework	"Enable 2 Charges and Grants +0.5s of Invincibility"	"Dispels non-ult debuffs and grants 30% Lifesteal for 5s"	Smoke Bomb T3 changed from "Enable 2 Charges and Grants +0.5s of Invincibility" to "Dispels non-ult debuffs and grants 30% Lifesteal for 5s"
2026-03-06	spirit_per_boonspirit	Nerf	1.1	0	Spirit per boon reduced from 1.1 to 0.5