Deadlock Hero Balance Predictions
Grey Talon buff/nerf predictor prototype
Generated from the Grey Talon predictor DuckDB, recent patch history, and a three-stage prediction model.
Prediction Model
Grey Talon Buff/Nerf Watch
This page is the hero-side version of the item prediction screen. The target is whether a hero looks more likely to be buffed, nerfed, or left alone in a future patch. This first page is Grey Talon-only so the predictors can be reviewed before expanding to every hero.
Best read: this is now a three-stage experiment. It first asks whether Grey Talon is likely to change, then which broad mechanic would be selected, then the direction of that selected mechanic. Later stages are conditional and must not be read as standalone certainty.
- Stage 1
- Will Grey Talon receive any balance change in the next patch?
- Stage 2
- If Grey Talon changes, which mechanic family is most likely to be selected?
- Stage 3
- If that family is selected, does its patch direction look like buff, nerf, or mixed/rework?
- Future learning
- Weekly snapshots preserve hero stats and ability values over time. They are enabled as model features only after changed and unchanged patches both have adequate coverage.
Three-Stage Next-Patch Forecast
1
Will Grey Talon change?
16.4%
Estimated chance of any Grey Talon balance change. No-change estimate: 83.6%.
Disclaimer: Experimental. This is based on one hero's patch history and has not been proven accurate — Stage 1 and Stage 2 don't yet beat a simple "no change" guess on holdout data. Treat every number on this page as a rough signal, not a confirmed forecast.
Stages 2 and 3: target and direction if Grey Talon changes
| Mechanic | Selected if changed | Direction | Buff if selected | Nerf if selected | Mixed/rework if selected | Combined priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rain Of Arrows | 15.2% | Buff | 45.6% | 21.6% | 32.8% | 2.5% |
| Vitality | 14.1% | Buff | 45.5% | 25.7% | 28.8% | 2.3% |
| Spirit Snare | 13.1% | Nerf | 16.2% | 53.7% | 30.1% | 2.2% |
| Charged Shot | 12.8% | Nerf | 16.2% | 53.7% | 30.1% | 2.1% |
| Spirit | 12.5% | Nerf | 16.2% | 53.7% | 30.1% | 2.1% |
| Weapon | 11.6% | Buff | 36.7% | 33.1% | 30.2% | 1.9% |
| Guided Owl | 11.3% | Buff | 36.7% | 33.1% | 30.2% | 1.9% |
Combined priority multiplies Stage 1 by Stage 2 to help sort the watchlist. It is not a calibrated probability that the named mechanic will change.
Validation and Data Readiness
Every stage uses older patches for training and newer patches for testing. The current patch calendar contains 147 update dates through 2026-08-02.
| Stage | Test rows | Balanced accuracy | Macro F1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stage 1 - hero changedWhether Grey Talon receives any balance change. | 30 | 50.0% | 0.474 |
| Stage 2 - mechanic selectedWhich mechanic family is selected if Grey Talon changes. | 210 | 50.0% | 0.492 |
| Stage 3 - conditional directionBuff, nerf, or mixed/rework after a mechanic is selected. | 2 | 0.0% | 0.000 |
Performance feature gate: withheld. Historical pre-patch win-rate coverage is 6.1%; the required coverage is 80.0%. Performance features are withheld because missingness is too sparse or too strongly associated with whether Grey Talon changed.
The weekly collector now stores all hero performance, base stats, and ability properties without overwriting prior snapshots. Once enough unchanged and changed patches have comparable coverage, performance and ability-strength features can enter training without leaking the answer.
Grey Talon Patch Changes
14 Grey Talon patch-change rows are included from the recent patch window.
| Patch | Predictor | Direction | Before | After | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | guided_owl_permanent_spirit_bonusability:guided_owl | Nerf | 10 | 8 | Guided Owl permanent spirit bonus reduced from 10 to 8 |
| 2026-06-30 | rain_of_arrows_cooldownability:rain_of_arrows | Buff | 23s | 25s | Rain of Arrows cooldown increased from 23s to 25s |
| 2026-06-12 | rain_of_arrows_cooldownability:rain_of_arrows | Buff | 22s | 23s | Rain of Arrows cooldown increased from 22s to 23s |
| 2026-06-12 | rain_of_arrows_t2ability:rain_of_arrows | Nerf | -13s Cooldown | -12s | Rain of Arrows T2 reduced from -13s Cooldown to -12s |
| 2026-06-12 | gun_cycle_timevitality | Buff | 0.5775 | 0 | Gun cycle time increased from 0.5775 to 0.6 (~4% DPS nerf) |
| 2026-06-12 | bullet_damage_growthweapon | Nerf | +1.0 | +0 | Bullet damage growth reduced from +1.0 to +0.85 |
| 2026-05-22 | rain_of_arrows_cast_delayability:rain_of_arrows | Nerf | 0.5s | 0 | Rain of Arrows cast delay reduced from 0.5s to 0.2s |
| 2026-05-22 | rain_of_arrows_cooldownability:rain_of_arrows | Nerf | 30s | 22s | Rain of Arrows cooldown reduced from 30s to 22s |
| 2026-05-22 | rain_of_arrows_durationability:rain_of_arrows | Nerf | 7s | 4s | Rain of Arrows duration reduced from 7s to 4s |
| 2026-05-22 | rain_of_arrows_moving_ability_in_air_improvedability:rain_of_arrows | Buff | Rain of Arrows moving ability in air improved | ||
| 2026-05-22 | rain_of_arrows_t1ability:rain_of_arrows | Rework | "-14s Cooldown" | "+3 Weapon Damage and +30% Slow for 1 | Rain of Arrows T1 changed from "-14s Cooldown" to "+3 Weapon Damage and +30% Slow for 1.5s" |
| 2026-05-22 | rain_of_arrows_t2ability:rain_of_arrows | Rework | "+5 Weapon Damage and +40% Slow for 1.5s" | "-13s Cooldown" (Total CD from 16s to 9s) | Rain of Arrows T2 changed from "+5 Weapon Damage and +40% Slow for 1.5s" to "-13s Cooldown" (Total CD from 16s to 9s) |
| 2026-05-22 | rain_of_arrows_weapon_damage_bonusability:rain_of_arrows | Nerf | +4 | +3 | Rain of Arrows Weapon Damage bonus reduced from +4 to +3 |
| 2026-05-22 | rain_of_arrow_stamina_distancevitality | Rework | being -9% | +25% | Rain of Arrow stamina distance changed from being -9% to +25% |
Hero Balance Predictions
Grey Talon buff/nerf prototype
Forecasts whether Grey Talon is likely to change next patch, using recent patch history and the Grey Talon predictor DuckDB.