Deadlock Hero Balance Predictions
Graves buff/nerf predictor prototype
Generated from the Graves predictor DuckDB, recent patch history, and a three-stage prediction model.
Prediction Model
Graves Buff/Nerf Watch
This page is the hero-side version of the item prediction screen. The target is whether a hero looks more likely to be buffed, nerfed, or left alone in a future patch. This first page is Graves-only so the predictors can be reviewed before expanding to every hero.
Best read: this is now a three-stage experiment. It first asks whether Graves is likely to change, then which broad mechanic would be selected, then the direction of that selected mechanic. Later stages are conditional and must not be read as standalone certainty.
- Stage 1
- Will Graves receive any balance change in the next patch?
- Stage 2
- If Graves changes, which mechanic family is most likely to be selected?
- Stage 3
- If that family is selected, does its patch direction look like buff, nerf, or mixed/rework?
- Future learning
- Weekly snapshots preserve hero stats and ability values over time. They are enabled as model features only after changed and unchanged patches both have adequate coverage.
Three-Stage Next-Patch Forecast
1
Will Graves change?
28.4%
Estimated chance of any Graves balance change. No-change estimate: 71.6%.
Disclaimer: Experimental. This is based on one hero's patch history and has not been proven accurate — Stage 1 and Stage 2 don't yet beat a simple "no change" guess on holdout data. Treat every number on this page as a rough signal, not a confirmed forecast.
Stages 2 and 3: target and direction if Graves changes
| Mechanic | Selected if changed | Direction | Buff if selected | Nerf if selected | Mixed/rework if selected | Combined priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grasping Hands | 8.6% | Nerf | 0.0% | 60.0% | 40.0% | 2.4% |
| Vitality | 7.0% | Nerf | 0.0% | 67.1% | 32.9% | 2.0% |
| Jar Of Dead | 6.0% | Nerf | 0.0% | 75.8% | 24.2% | 1.7% |
| Spirit | 5.5% | Mixed Or Rework | 0.0% | 20.9% | 79.1% | 1.6% |
| Weapon | 4.4% | Nerf | 0.0% | 60.0% | 40.0% | 1.2% |
| Essence Theft | 1.5% | Mixed Or Rework | 0.0% | 47.2% | 52.8% | 0.4% |
| Borrowed Decree | 1.1% | Mixed Or Rework | 0.0% | 49.5% | 50.5% | 0.3% |
Combined priority multiplies Stage 1 by Stage 2 to help sort the watchlist. It is not a calibrated probability that the named mechanic will change.
Validation and Data Readiness
Every stage uses older patches for training and newer patches for testing. The current patch calendar contains 138 update dates through 2026-06-12.
| Stage | Test rows | Balanced accuracy | Macro F1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stage 1 - hero changedWhether Graves receives any balance change. | 28 | 50.0% | 0.462 |
| Stage 2 - mechanic selectedWhich mechanic family is selected if Graves changes. | 196 | 50.0% | 0.484 |
| Stage 3 - conditional directionBuff, nerf, or mixed/rework after a mechanic is selected. | 2 | 0.0% | 0.000 |
Performance feature gate: withheld. Historical pre-patch win-rate coverage is 0.0%; the required coverage is 80.0%. Performance features are withheld because missingness is too sparse or too strongly associated with whether Graves changed.
The weekly collector now stores all hero performance, base stats, and ability properties without overwriting prior snapshots. Once enough unchanged and changed patches have comparable coverage, performance and ability-strength features can enter training without leaking the answer.
Graves Patch Changes
36 Graves patch-change rows are included from the recent patch window.
| Patch | Predictor | Direction | Before | After | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-12 | grasping_hands_t3_immobilize_durationability:grasping_hands | Nerf | +1s | +0 | Grasping Hands T3 Immobilize duration reduced from +1s to +0.75s |
| 2026-06-12 | jar_of_dead_bountyability:jar_of_dead | Buff | 5+0.25/boon | 7+0 | Jar of Dead bounty increased from 5+0.25/boon to 7+0.5/boon |
| 2026-06-12 | jar_of_dead_collection_rateability:jar_of_dead | Nerf | Jar of Dead collection rate reduced by 20% (takes longer to gain a charge) | ||
| 2026-06-12 | jar_of_dead_damageability:jar_of_dead | Nerf | 17+0.27 | 16+0 | Jar of Dead damage reduced from 17+0.27 to 16+0.25 |
| 2026-05-31 | jar_of_dead_damageability:jar_of_dead | Nerf | 20 + 0.31/spirit | 17 + 0 | Jar of Dead damage reduced from 20 + 0.31/spirit to 17 + 0.27/spirit |
| 2026-05-31 | ghouls_bountyvitality | Buff | 25+1/min | 35+2/min | Ghouls bounty increased from 25+1/min to 35+2/min |
| 2026-05-31 | ghouls_damagevitality | Nerf | Ghouls damage reduced by 15% | ||
| 2026-05-22 | grasping_handsability:grasping_hands | Rework | Grasping Hands now spawns a ghoul in the base ability (T3 still increases it by 1) | ||
| 2026-05-22 | jar_of_dead_spirit_scalingability:jar_of_dead | Nerf | 0.35 | 0 | Jar of Dead spirit scaling reduced from 0.35 to 0.31 (they are better at dealing damage now) |
| 2026-05-22 | added_0_1s_buffer_duration_for_deadheads_losing_line_of_sight_before_they_stop_following_an_enemyvitality | Rework | Added 0.1s buffer duration for Deadheads losing line-of-sight before they stop following an enemy | ||
| 2026-05-22 | fixed_certain_projectiles_i_e_gray_talon_s_bird_colliding_with_deadheadsvitality | Rework | Fixed certain projectiles (i.e Gray Talon's Bird) colliding with Deadheads | ||
| 2026-05-22 | fixed_deadheads_becoming_inactive_if_graves_dies_while_they_are_following_hervitality | Rework | Fixed Deadheads becoming inactive if Graves dies while they are following her | ||
| 2026-05-22 | fixed_deadheads_being_unable_to_dash_through_veilsvitality | Rework | Fixed Deadheads being unable to dash through veils | ||
| 2026-05-22 | fixed_deadheads_being_unable_to_dash_to_targets_at_the_very_end_of_your_attack_rvitality | Rework | Fixed Deadheads being unable to dash to targets at the very end of your attack range when they are in follow mode | ||
| 2026-05-22 | increased_speed_acceleration_of_deadheads_only_when_they_are_following_gravesvitality | Buff | Increased speed & acceleration of Deadheads only when they are following Graves - doesn't affect in-combat | ||
| 2026-05-22 | sprint_speedvitality | Buff | 1.6 | 2 | Sprint speed increased from 1.6 to 2.2 |
| 2026-05-22 | updated_dash_ranges_for_deadheads_to_be_calculated_from_the_center_of_graves_when_they_are_following_hervitality | Rework | Updated dash ranges for Deadheads to be calculated from the center of Graves when they are following her | ||
| 2026-05-22 | bullet_damage_and_growthweapon | Nerf | Bullet damage and growth reduced by -10% | ||
| 2026-05-22 | fixed_deadhead_s_damage_taken_from_bullets_being_unaffected_by_fall_offweapon | Rework | Fixed Deadhead's damage taken from bullets being unaffected by fall-off | ||
| 2026-05-22 | fixed_fire_rate_buffs_for_deadheads_not_being_applied_to_their_next_attack_butweapon | Rework | Fixed Fire Rate buffs for Deadheads not being applied to their next attack, but only on subsequent attacks | ||
| 2026-05-22 | update_grave_s_melee_to_also_set_the_dash_target_for_deadheadsweapon | Rework | Update Grave's melee to also set the dash target for Deadheads | ||
| 2026-03-06 | borrowed_decreeability:borrowed_decree | Rework | Borrowed Decree now summons 2 Ghouls on cast | ||
| 2026-03-06 | borrowed_decree_t3ability:borrowed_decree | Nerf | Borrowed Decree T3 no longer summons 3 Ghouls on cast | ||
| 2026-03-06 | borrowed_decree_t3ability:borrowed_decree | Buff | +5% Current Health | +6% | Borrowed Decree T3 increased from +5% Current Health to +6% |
| 2026-03-06 | essence_theft_t3ability:essence_theft | Rework | Essence Theft T3 fixed to latch onto targets nearby more readily | ||
| 2026-03-06 | grasping_hands_cooldownability:grasping_hands | Nerf | 38s | 34s | Grasping Hands cooldown reduced from 38s to 34s |
| 2026-03-06 | grasping_hands_deploy_timeability:grasping_hands | Nerf | 0.7s | 0 | Grasping Hands deploy time reduced from 0.7s to 0.6s |
| 2026-03-06 | grasping_hands_immobilize_durationability:grasping_hands | Nerf | 1.5s | 1 | Grasping Hands Immobilize duration reduced from 1.5s to 1.25s |
| 2026-03-06 | grasping_hands_isability:grasping_hands | Rework | Grasping Hands is now set up to work through proper alternate cast methods and be more responsive | ||
| 2026-03-06 | grasping_hands_t2ability:grasping_hands | Rework | "+0.75s Immobilize Duration" | "+90 Damage and +10m Wall Length" | Grasping Hands T2 changed from "+0.75s Immobilize Duration" to "+90 Damage and +10m Wall Length" |
| 2026-03-06 | grasping_hands_t3ability:grasping_hands | Rework | "+15m Wall Length and -10s Cooldown" | "+1s Immobilize Duration and -12s Cooldown" | Grasping Hands T3 changed from "+15m Wall Length and -10s Cooldown" to "+1s Immobilize Duration and -12s Cooldown" |
| 2026-03-06 | grasping_hands_t3ability:grasping_hands | Rework | "+1s Immobilize and -12s Cooldown" | "+1s Immobilize and +2 Ghouls Summoned" | Grasping Hands T3 changed from "+1s Immobilize and -12s Cooldown" to "+1s Immobilize and +2 Ghouls Summoned" |
| 2026-03-06 | jar_of_deadability:jar_of_dead | Rework | Jar of Dead fixed colliding with the world sometimes | ||
| 2026-03-06 | jar_of_dead_health_per_boonability:jar_of_dead | Buff | 1 | 1 | Jar of Dead health per boon increased from 1 to 1.3 |
| 2026-03-06 | jar_of_dead_spirit_scalingability:jar_of_dead | Buff | 0.25 | 0 | Jar of Dead spirit scaling increased from 0.25 to 0.35 |
| 2026-03-06 | jar_of_dead_t2ability:jar_of_dead | Rework | Jar of Dead T2 now increases duration by +4s |
Hero Balance Predictions
Graves buff/nerf prototype
Forecasts whether Graves is likely to change next patch, using recent patch history and the Graves predictor DuckDB.