Deadlock Hero Balance Predictions
Dynamo buff/nerf predictor prototype
Generated from the Dynamo predictor DuckDB, recent patch history, and a three-stage prediction model.
Prediction Model
Dynamo Buff/Nerf Watch
This page is the hero-side version of the item prediction screen. The target is whether a hero looks more likely to be buffed, nerfed, or left alone in a future patch. This first page is Dynamo-only so the predictors can be reviewed before expanding to every hero.
Best read: this is now a three-stage experiment. It first asks whether Dynamo is likely to change, then which broad mechanic would be selected, then the direction of that selected mechanic. Later stages are conditional and must not be read as standalone certainty.
- Stage 1
- Will Dynamo receive any balance change in the next patch?
- Stage 2
- If Dynamo changes, which mechanic family is most likely to be selected?
- Stage 3
- If that family is selected, does its patch direction look like buff, nerf, or mixed/rework?
- Future learning
- Weekly snapshots preserve hero stats and ability values over time. They are enabled as model features only after changed and unchanged patches both have adequate coverage.
Three-Stage Next-Patch Forecast
1
Will Dynamo change?
12.4%
Estimated chance of any Dynamo balance change. No-change estimate: 87.6%.
Disclaimer: Experimental. This is based on one hero's patch history and has not been proven accurate — Stage 1 and Stage 2 don't yet beat a simple "no change" guess on holdout data. Treat every number on this page as a rough signal, not a confirmed forecast.
Stages 2 and 3: target and direction if Dynamo changes
| Mechanic | Selected if changed | Direction | Buff if selected | Nerf if selected | Mixed/rework if selected | Combined priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kinetic Pulse | 5.3% | Nerf | 14.1% | 69.6% | 16.3% | 0.7% |
| Spirit | 4.5% | Mixed Or Rework | 34.5% | 18.0% | 47.5% | 0.6% |
| Quantum Entanglement | 4.0% | Nerf | 31.4% | 43.9% | 24.7% | 0.5% |
| Singularity | 2.1% | Buff | 37.0% | 27.0% | 36.0% | 0.3% |
| Weapon | 0.7% | Mixed Or Rework | 37.5% | 22.7% | 39.8% | 0.1% |
| Rejuvenating Aurora | 0.4% | Buff | 37.0% | 28.7% | 34.3% | 0.0% |
| Vitality | 0.3% | Mixed Or Rework | 37.5% | 22.7% | 39.8% | 0.0% |
Combined priority multiplies Stage 1 by Stage 2 to help sort the watchlist. It is not a calibrated probability that the named mechanic will change.
Validation and Data Readiness
Every stage uses older patches for training and newer patches for testing. The current patch calendar contains 138 update dates through 2026-06-12.
| Stage | Test rows | Balanced accuracy | Macro F1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stage 1 - hero changedWhether Dynamo receives any balance change. | 28 | 50.0% | 0.472 |
| Stage 2 - mechanic selectedWhich mechanic family is selected if Dynamo changes. | 196 | 50.0% | 0.488 |
| Stage 3 - conditional directionBuff, nerf, or mixed/rework after a mechanic is selected. | 2 | 50.0% | 0.333 |
Performance feature gate: withheld. Historical pre-patch win-rate coverage is 0.0%; the required coverage is 80.0%. Performance features are withheld because missingness is too sparse or too strongly associated with whether Dynamo changed.
The weekly collector now stores all hero performance, base stats, and ability properties without overwriting prior snapshots. Once enough unchanged and changed patches have comparable coverage, performance and ability-strength features can enter training without leaking the answer.
Dynamo Patch Changes
41 Dynamo patch-change rows are included from the recent patch window.
| Patch | Predictor | Direction | Before | After | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-22 | kinetic_pulse_spirit_scalingability:kinetic_pulse | Nerf | 1.65 | 1 | Kinetic Pulse spirit scaling reduced from 1.65 to 1.55 |
| 2026-05-22 | kinetic_pulse_t2ability:kinetic_pulse | Nerf | -18% Bullet Resistance | -15% | Kinetic Pulse T2 reduced from -18% Bullet Resistance to -15% |
| 2026-05-22 | quantum_entanglement_t3ability:quantum_entanglement | Rework | dispelling non-ult debuffs | reducing the duration of non-ult debuffs by 50% | Quantum Entanglement T3 changed from dispelling non-ult debuffs to reducing the duration of non-ult debuffs by 50% |
| 2026-04-30 | kinetic_pulse_spirit_scalingability:kinetic_pulse | Nerf | 1.8 | 1 | Kinetic Pulse spirit scaling reduced from 1.8 to 1.65 |
| 2026-04-30 | quantum_entanglement_cooldownability:quantum_entanglement | Buff | 19s | 20s | Quantum Entanglement cooldown increased from 19s to 20s |
| 2026-03-06 | kinetic_pulse_cooldownability:kinetic_pulse | Buff | 22s | 26s | Kinetic Pulse cooldown increased from 22s to 26s |
| 2026-03-06 | kinetic_pulse_damageability:kinetic_pulse | Buff | 90 | 115 | Kinetic Pulse damage increased from 90 to 115 |
| 2026-03-06 | kinetic_pulse_rangeability:kinetic_pulse | Nerf | 20m | 16m | Kinetic Pulse range reduced from 20m to 16m |
| 2026-03-06 | kinetic_pulse_rangeability:kinetic_pulse | Nerf | Kinetic Pulse range no longer increases with spirit scaling | ||
| 2026-03-06 | kinetic_pulse_spirit_scalingability:kinetic_pulse | Buff | 1.7 | 2 | Kinetic Pulse spirit scaling increased from 1.7 to 2.1 |
| 2026-03-06 | kinetic_pulse_spirit_scalingability:kinetic_pulse | Nerf | 2.1 | 1 | Kinetic Pulse spirit scaling reduced from 2.1 to 1.8 |
| 2026-03-06 | kinetic_pulse_t1ability:kinetic_pulse | Rework | "35% Move Slow and -30% Fire Rate" | "+1 Charge" | Kinetic Pulse T1 changed from "35% Move Slow and -30% Fire Rate" to "+1 Charge" |
| 2026-03-06 | kinetic_pulse_t2ability:kinetic_pulse | Rework | "+30% Bullet Damage for 8s" | "Reduces enemy Bullet Resistance by -18% and Move Speed by -30% for 4s" | Kinetic Pulse T2 changed from "+30% Bullet Damage for 8s" to "Reduces enemy Bullet Resistance by -18% and Move Speed by -30% for 4s" |
| 2026-03-06 | kinetic_pulse_t3ability:kinetic_pulse | Buff | +16m Range | +20m | Kinetic Pulse T3 increased from +16m Range to +20m |
| 2026-03-06 | kinetic_pulse_t3ability:kinetic_pulse | Rework | "+104 Damage and +1 Charge" | "+135 Damage and +16m Cast Range" | Kinetic Pulse T3 changed from "+104 Damage and +1 Charge" to "+135 Damage and +16m Cast Range" |
| 2026-03-06 | kinetic_pulse_widthability:kinetic_pulse | Buff | 5m | 5 | Kinetic Pulse width increased from 5m to 5.5m |
| 2026-03-06 | quantum_entanglementability:quantum_entanglement | Nerf | Quantum Entanglement no longer grants +26% Fire Rate | ||
| 2026-03-06 | quantum_entanglementability:quantum_entanglement | Nerf | Quantum Entanglement no longer reloads ammo | ||
| 2026-03-06 | quantum_entanglement_ally_distanceability:quantum_entanglement | Buff | 10m | 13m | Quantum Entanglement ally distance increased from 10m to 13m |
| 2026-03-06 | quantum_entanglement_base_abilityability:quantum_entanglement | Rework | Quantum Entanglement base ability now restores 1 stamina | ||
| 2026-03-06 | quantum_entanglement_rangeability:quantum_entanglement | Buff | 9m | 10m | Quantum Entanglement range increased from 9m to 10m |
| 2026-03-06 | quantum_entanglement_t1ability:quantum_entanglement | Buff | +4m Range | +6m | Quantum Entanglement T1 increased from +4m Range to +6m |
| 2026-03-06 | quantum_entanglement_t2ability:quantum_entanglement | Rework | "+22% Fire Rate" | "-6s Cooldown" | Quantum Entanglement T2 changed from "+22% Fire Rate" to "-6s Cooldown" |
| 2026-03-06 | quantum_entanglement_t3ability:quantum_entanglement | Rework | "-5s Cooldown and +120% Ammo" | "Dispells non-ult debuffs for you and your allies" | Quantum Entanglement T3 changed from "-5s Cooldown and +120% Ammo" to "Dispells non-ult debuffs for you and your allies" |
| 2026-03-06 | quantum_entanglement_t3ability:quantum_entanglement | Buff | Quantum Entanglement T3 now also replenishes 1 charge for charged abilities (half effect on allies) | ||
| 2026-03-06 | rejuvenating_auroraability:rejuvenating_aurora | Rework | Rejuvenating Aurora now has a 1s linger on allies | ||
| 2026-03-06 | rejuvenating_auroraability:rejuvenating_aurora | Rework | Rejuvenating Aurora now lets you jump while using it | ||
| 2026-03-06 | rejuvenating_aurora_cooldownability:rejuvenating_aurora | Buff | 45s | 48s | Rejuvenating Aurora cooldown increased from 45s to 48s |
| 2026-03-06 | rejuvenating_aurora_t1ability:rejuvenating_aurora | Rework | "+4 Move Speed for 8s after full channel" | "Aura provides +4 Move Speed during channel" | Rejuvenating Aurora T1 changed from "+4 Move Speed for 8s after full channel" to "Aura provides +4 Move Speed during channel" |
| 2026-03-06 | rejuvenating_aurora_t2ability:rejuvenating_aurora | Buff | Rejuvenating Aurora T2 now also increases duration by 1s | ||
| 2026-03-06 | rejuvenating_aurora_t2_cooldown_from_14s_to_20sability:rejuvenating_aurora | Rework | -14s | -20s | Rejuvenating Aurora T2 cooldown from -14s to -20s |
| 2026-03-06 | singularityability:singularity | Nerf | Singularity no longer does 1.5% Max Health DPS | ||
| 2026-03-06 | singularity_dpsability:singularity | Buff | 40 | 75 | Singularity DPS increased from 40 to 75 |
| 2026-03-06 | singularity_dps_spirit_scalingability:singularity | Buff | 0.19 | 0 | Singularity DPS spirit scaling increased from 0.19 to 0.28 |
| 2026-03-06 | singularity_t3ability:singularity | Buff | 4% Max Health DPS | 5 | Singularity T3 increased from 4% Max Health DPS to 5.5% |
| 2026-03-06 | singularity_t3_max_health_as_damageability:singularity | Buff | 5.5% | 6% | Singularity T3 Max health as damage increased from 5.5% to 6% |
| 2026-03-06 | ammoweapon | Buff | 18 | 20 | Ammo increased from 18 to 20 |
| 2026-03-06 | bullet_damageweapon | Buff | 12.2+0.44 | 12 | Bullet damage increased from 12.2+0.44 to 12.6+0.5 |
| 2025-11-21 | kinetic_pulse_cooldownability:kinetic_pulse | Nerf | 26s | 22s | Kinetic Pulse cooldown reduced from 26s to 22s |
| 2025-11-21 | kinetic_pulse_rangeability:kinetic_pulse | Buff | 15m | 20m | Kinetic Pulse range increased from 15m to 20m |
| 2025-11-21 | base_regenvitality | Buff | 2 | 2 | Base regen increased from 2 to 2.5 |
Hero Balance Predictions
Dynamo buff/nerf prototype
Forecasts whether Dynamo is likely to change next patch, using recent patch history and the Dynamo predictor DuckDB.