Deadlock Hero Balance Predictions
Drifter buff/nerf predictor prototype
Generated from the Drifter predictor DuckDB, recent patch history, and a three-stage prediction model.
Prediction Model

Drifter Buff/Nerf Watch

This page is the hero-side version of the item prediction screen. The target is whether a hero looks more likely to be buffed, nerfed, or left alone in a future patch. This first page is Drifter-only so the predictors can be reviewed before expanding to every hero.

Best read: this is now a three-stage experiment. It first asks whether Drifter is likely to change, then which broad mechanic would be selected, then the direction of that selected mechanic. Later stages are conditional and must not be read as standalone certainty.
Stage 1
Will Drifter receive any balance change in the next patch?
Stage 2
If Drifter changes, which mechanic family is most likely to be selected?
Stage 3
If that family is selected, does its patch direction look like buff, nerf, or mixed/rework?
Future learning
Weekly snapshots preserve hero stats and ability values over time. They are enabled as model features only after changed and unchanged patches both have adequate coverage.
Three-Stage Next-Patch Forecast
1

Will Drifter change?

12.4%

Estimated chance of any Drifter balance change. No-change estimate: 87.6%.

Disclaimer: Experimental. This is based on one hero's patch history and has not been proven accurate — Stage 1 and Stage 2 don't yet beat a simple "no change" guess on holdout data. Treat every number on this page as a rough signal, not a confirmed forecast.

Stages 2 and 3: target and direction if Drifter changes

Mechanic Selected if changed Direction Buff if selected Nerf if selected Mixed/rework if selected Combined priority
Rend 5.3% Buff 61.0% 5.6% 33.4% 0.7%
Bloodscent 4.9% Buff 56.0% 3.3% 40.7% 0.6%
Stalker S Mark 4.1% Buff 52.8% 5.4% 41.9% 0.5%
Weapon 2.9% Mixed Or Rework 28.6% 11.2% 60.2% 0.4%
Eternal Night 2.6% Buff 59.2% 3.3% 37.5% 0.3%
Vitality 1.3% Mixed Or Rework 44.1% 8.3% 47.7% 0.2%
Spirit 1.2% Mixed Or Rework 28.6% 11.2% 60.2% 0.2%

Combined priority multiplies Stage 1 by Stage 2 to help sort the watchlist. It is not a calibrated probability that the named mechanic will change.

Validation and Data Readiness

Every stage uses older patches for training and newer patches for testing. The current patch calendar contains 138 update dates through 2026-06-12.

Stage Test rows Balanced accuracy Macro F1
Stage 1 - hero changedWhether Drifter receives any balance change. 28 50.0% 0.472
Stage 2 - mechanic selectedWhich mechanic family is selected if Drifter changes. 196 50.0% 0.491
Stage 3 - conditional directionBuff, nerf, or mixed/rework after a mechanic is selected. 1 0.0% 0.000
Performance feature gate: withheld. Historical pre-patch win-rate coverage is 0.0%; the required coverage is 80.0%. Performance features are withheld because missingness is too sparse or too strongly associated with whether Drifter changed.

The weekly collector now stores all hero performance, base stats, and ability properties without overwriting prior snapshots. Once enough unchanged and changed patches have comparable coverage, performance and ability-strength features can enter training without leaking the answer.

Drifter Patch Changes

28 Drifter patch-change rows are included from the recent patch window.

Patch Predictor Direction Before After Notes
2026-05-22 rend_t3ability:rend Buff Rend T3 now also deals Heavy Melee Damage (0.55 scale)
2026-05-22 rend_t3ability:rend Nerf Rend T3 no longer increases scaling by 0.4
2026-04-30 bloodscent_t3ability:bloodscent Buff +10% Amplified Damage +12% Bloodscent T3 increased from +10% Amplified Damage to +12%
2026-04-30 rend_t3ability:rend Buff Rend T3 now also increases melee scaling (1.2 to 1.6)
2026-03-06 bloodscentability:bloodscent Buff Bloodscent now grants Drifter the same amount of permanent bonus weapon damage when an isolated hero dies nearby, whether Drifter gets the assist or the kill
2026-03-06 bloodscent_permanent_bonus_weapon_damage_gained_per_isolated_hero_deathability:bloodscent Nerf 4% 3% Bloodscent permanent bonus weapon damage gained per isolated hero death reduced from 4% to 3%
2026-03-06 bloodscent_t2ability:bloodscent Rework "Isolated kill reduces cooldowns by 15s and restores 3 stamina" "Isolated death restores 18% Missing Health and restores 2 stamina" Bloodscent T2 changed from "Isolated kill reduces cooldowns by 15s and restores 3 stamina" to "Isolated death restores 18% Missing Health and restores 2 stamina"
2026-03-06 eternal_nightability:eternal_night Nerf Eternal Night no longer has 7 spirit damage proc
2026-03-06 eternal_nightability:eternal_night Rework Eternal Night now makes the targets be considered as isolated
2026-03-06 eternal_night_cooldownability:eternal_night Buff 120s 125s Eternal Night cooldown increased from 120s to 125s
2026-03-06 eternal_night_durationability:eternal_night Nerf 7s 6 Eternal Night duration reduced from 7s to 6.5s
2026-03-06 eternal_night_sprintability:eternal_night Nerf +3m +2m Eternal Night Sprint reduced from +3m to +2m
2026-03-06 eternal_night_t1ability:eternal_night Rework "+6.3 Spirit Damage Proc" "+10m Sprint" (kicks in immediately) Eternal Night T1 changed from "+6.3 Spirit Damage Proc" to "+10m Sprint" (kicks in immediately)
2026-03-06 eternal_night_t2ability:eternal_night Rework "-30s Cooldown and +3m/s Sprint" "-45s Cooldown" Eternal Night T2 changed from "-30s Cooldown and +3m/s Sprint" to "-45s Cooldown"
2026-03-06 eternal_night_t3ability:eternal_night Buff "+2s Duration and +1 Max Target" "+2 Eternal Night T3 increased from "+2s Duration and +1 Max Target" to "+2.5s Duration and +1 Max Target"
2026-03-06 fixed_quicksilver_reload_dealing_bonus_multiple_times_with_rendability:rend Rework Fixed Quicksilver Reload dealing bonus multiple times with Rend
2026-03-06 rend_bonus_damage_isability:rend Rework Rend "bonus" damage is now the melee range at close range (so you only do melee damage at close range and spirit is the default)
2026-03-06 rend_cooldownability:rend Buff 13s 16s Rend cooldown increased from 13s to 16s
2026-03-06 rend_damage_rangeability:rend Nerf 18m 16m Rend damage range reduced from 18m to 16m
2026-03-06 rend_damage_spirit_scalingability:rend Buff 1.4 1 Rend damage spirit scaling increased from 1.4 to 1.8
2026-03-06 rend_t1_bonus_damageability:rend Buff +32 +40 Rend T1 bonus damage increased from +32 to +40
2026-03-06 rend_t3ability:rend Rework "Gain 45% Bullet Lifesteal against affected enemies for 4s" "Close range attack now silences enemies for 2 Rend T3 changed from "Gain 45% Bullet Lifesteal against affected enemies for 4s" to "Close range attack now silences enemies for 2.3s"
2026-03-06 stalker_s_mark_durationability:stalker_s_mark Nerf 6s 5s Stalker's Mark duration reduced from 6s to 5s
2026-03-06 stalker_s_mark_t1ability:stalker_s_mark Rework "+1% Bleed" "-8% Bullet Resist" Stalker's Mark T1 changed from "+1% Bleed" to "-8% Bullet Resist"
2026-03-06 stalker_s_mark_t2ability:stalker_s_mark Rework "+22% Fire Rate for 6s after ambush" "+3s Duration and -8s Cooldown" Stalker's Mark T2 changed from "+22% Fire Rate for 6s after ambush" to "+3s Duration and -8s Cooldown"
2026-03-06 stalker_s_mark_t3ability:stalker_s_mark Rework "Enables 2 Charges and +2s Duration" "+2% Bleed and -40% Healing" Stalker's Mark T3 changed from "Enables 2 Charges and +2s Duration" to "+2% Bleed and -40% Healing"
2025-11-21 rend_cooldownability:rend Nerf 15s 13s Rend cooldown reduced from 15s to 13s
2025-11-21 base_regenvitality Buff 2.5 3 Base regen increased from 2.5 to 3.5
Deadlock
Hero Balance Predictions
Drifter buff/nerf prototype
Forecasts whether Drifter is likely to change next patch, using recent patch history and the Drifter predictor DuckDB.