Deadlock Hero Balance Predictions
Drifter buff/nerf predictor prototype
Generated from the Drifter predictor DuckDB, recent patch history, and a three-stage prediction model.
Prediction Model
Drifter Buff/Nerf Watch
This page is the hero-side version of the item prediction screen. The target is whether a hero looks more likely to be buffed, nerfed, or left alone in a future patch. This first page is Drifter-only so the predictors can be reviewed before expanding to every hero.
Best read: this is now a three-stage experiment. It first asks whether Drifter is likely to change, then which broad mechanic would be selected, then the direction of that selected mechanic. Later stages are conditional and must not be read as standalone certainty.
- Stage 1
- Will Drifter receive any balance change in the next patch?
- Stage 2
- If Drifter changes, which mechanic family is most likely to be selected?
- Stage 3
- If that family is selected, does its patch direction look like buff, nerf, or mixed/rework?
- Future learning
- Weekly snapshots preserve hero stats and ability values over time. They are enabled as model features only after changed and unchanged patches both have adequate coverage.
Three-Stage Next-Patch Forecast
1
Will Drifter change?
67.8%
Estimated chance of any Drifter balance change. No-change estimate: 32.2%.
Disclaimer: Experimental. This is based on one hero's patch history and has not been proven accurate — Stage 1 and Stage 2 don't yet beat a simple "no change" guess on holdout data. Treat every number on this page as a rough signal, not a confirmed forecast.
Stages 2 and 3: target and direction if Drifter changes
| Mechanic | Selected if changed | Direction | Buff if selected | Nerf if selected | Mixed/rework if selected | Combined priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rend | 26.0% | Nerf | 6.6% | 68.1% | 25.3% | 17.6% |
| Bloodscent | 25.6% | Nerf | 14.2% | 67.4% | 18.4% | 17.3% |
| Stalker S Mark | 19.1% | Nerf | 23.2% | 53.4% | 23.3% | 12.9% |
| Weapon | 16.6% | Nerf | 17.5% | 57.1% | 25.4% | 11.2% |
| Vitality | 14.6% | Nerf | 36.1% | 49.2% | 14.7% | 9.9% |
| Spirit | 12.0% | Nerf | 9.9% | 57.4% | 32.7% | 8.1% |
| Eternal Night | 10.1% | Nerf | 25.8% | 48.5% | 25.7% | 6.8% |
Combined priority multiplies Stage 1 by Stage 2 to help sort the watchlist. It is not a calibrated probability that the named mechanic will change.
Validation and Data Readiness
Every stage uses older patches for training and newer patches for testing. The current patch calendar contains 147 update dates through 2026-08-02.
| Stage | Test rows | Balanced accuracy | Macro F1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stage 1 - hero changedWhether Drifter receives any balance change. | 30 | 50.0% | 0.444 |
| Stage 2 - mechanic selectedWhich mechanic family is selected if Drifter changes. | 210 | 50.0% | 0.483 |
| Stage 3 - conditional directionBuff, nerf, or mixed/rework after a mechanic is selected. | 4 | 0.0% | 0.000 |
Performance feature gate: withheld. Historical pre-patch win-rate coverage is 6.1%; the required coverage is 80.0%. Performance features are withheld because missingness is too sparse or too strongly associated with whether Drifter changed.
The weekly collector now stores all hero performance, base stats, and ability properties without overwriting prior snapshots. Once enough unchanged and changed patches have comparable coverage, performance and ability-strength features can enter training without leaking the answer.
Drifter Patch Changes
41 Drifter patch-change rows are included from the recent patch window.
| Patch | Predictor | Direction | Before | After | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | rend_spirit_scalingability:rend | Nerf | 1.8 | 1 | Rend spirit scaling reduced from 1.8 to 1.7 |
| 2026-07-28 | rend_t3_silence_durationability:rend | Nerf | 2.3s | 2s | Rend T3 silence duration reduced from 2.3s to 2s |
| 2026-07-09 | bloodscent_t3ability:bloodscent | Nerf | +12% | +11% | Bloodscent T3 reduced from +12% to +11% |
| 2026-07-09 | stalker_s_mark_cooldownability:stalker_s_mark | Buff | 20s | 24s | Stalker's Mark cooldown increased from 20s to 24s |
| 2026-07-09 | stalker_s_mark_t2ability:stalker_s_mark | Buff | -8s Cooldown | -12s | Stalker's Mark T2 increased from -8s Cooldown to -12s |
| 2026-07-09 | stalker_s_mark_t3ability:stalker_s_mark | Nerf | +2% Bleed | +1 | Stalker's Mark T3 reduced from +2% Bleed to +1.5% |
| 2026-07-09 | bullet_damage_per_boonweapon | Nerf | +0.616 | +0 | Bullet damage per boon reduced from +0.616 to +0.49 |
| 2026-06-30 | bloodscent_t1ability:bloodscent | Buff | +2m/s while near an isolated enemy | +3m/s | Bloodscent T1 increased from +2m/s while near an isolated enemy to +3m/s |
| 2026-06-30 | bloodscent_t2ability:bloodscent | Buff | 18% missing health heal | +24% | Bloodscent T2 increased from 18% missing health heal to +24% |
| 2026-06-30 | rend_cast_timeability:rend | Nerf | 0.5s | 0 | Rend cast time reduced from 0.5s to 0.4s |
| 2026-06-30 | rend_post_cast_timeability:rend | Nerf | 0.5s | 0 | Rend post cast time reduced from 0.5s to 0.4s |
| 2026-06-30 | rend_t2ability:rend | Buff | -7s Cooldown | -8s | Rend T2 increased from -7s Cooldown to -8s |
| 2026-06-30 | health_per_boonvitality | Buff | 41 | 43 (global hp boon reduction is after this) | Health per boon increased from 41 to 43 (global hp boon reduction is after this) |
| 2026-05-22 | rend_t3ability:rend | Nerf | Rend T3 no longer increases scaling by 0.4 | ||
| 2026-05-22 | rend_t3ability:rend | Buff | Rend T3 now also deals Heavy Melee Damage (0.55 scale) | ||
| 2026-04-30 | bloodscent_t3ability:bloodscent | Buff | +10% Amplified Damage | +12% | Bloodscent T3 increased from +10% Amplified Damage to +12% |
| 2026-04-30 | rend_t3ability:rend | Buff | Rend T3 now also increases melee scaling (1.2 to 1.6) | ||
| 2026-03-06 | bloodscentability:bloodscent | Buff | Bloodscent now grants Drifter the same amount of permanent bonus weapon damage when an isolated hero dies nearby, whether Drifter gets the assist or the kill | ||
| 2026-03-06 | bloodscent_permanent_bonus_weapon_damage_gained_per_isolated_hero_deathability:bloodscent | Nerf | 4% | 3% | Bloodscent permanent bonus weapon damage gained per isolated hero death reduced from 4% to 3% |
| 2026-03-06 | bloodscent_t2ability:bloodscent | Rework | "Isolated kill reduces cooldowns by 15s and restores 3 stamina" | "Isolated death restores 18% Missing Health and restores 2 stamina" | Bloodscent T2 changed from "Isolated kill reduces cooldowns by 15s and restores 3 stamina" to "Isolated death restores 18% Missing Health and restores 2 stamina" |
| 2026-03-06 | eternal_nightability:eternal_night | Rework | Eternal Night now makes the targets be considered as isolated | ||
| 2026-03-06 | eternal_nightability:eternal_night | Nerf | Eternal Night no longer has 7 spirit damage proc | ||
| 2026-03-06 | eternal_night_cooldownability:eternal_night | Buff | 120s | 125s | Eternal Night cooldown increased from 120s to 125s |
| 2026-03-06 | eternal_night_durationability:eternal_night | Nerf | 7s | 6 | Eternal Night duration reduced from 7s to 6.5s |
| 2026-03-06 | eternal_night_sprintability:eternal_night | Nerf | +3m | +2m | Eternal Night Sprint reduced from +3m to +2m |
| 2026-03-06 | eternal_night_t1ability:eternal_night | Rework | "+6.3 Spirit Damage Proc" | "+10m Sprint" (kicks in immediately) | Eternal Night T1 changed from "+6.3 Spirit Damage Proc" to "+10m Sprint" (kicks in immediately) |
| 2026-03-06 | eternal_night_t2ability:eternal_night | Rework | "-30s Cooldown and +3m/s Sprint" | "-45s Cooldown" | Eternal Night T2 changed from "-30s Cooldown and +3m/s Sprint" to "-45s Cooldown" |
| 2026-03-06 | eternal_night_t3ability:eternal_night | Buff | "+2s Duration and +1 Max Target" | "+2 | Eternal Night T3 increased from "+2s Duration and +1 Max Target" to "+2.5s Duration and +1 Max Target" |
| 2026-03-06 | fixed_quicksilver_reload_dealing_bonus_multiple_times_with_rendability:rend | Rework | Fixed Quicksilver Reload dealing bonus multiple times with Rend | ||
| 2026-03-06 | rend_bonus_damage_isability:rend | Rework | Rend "bonus" damage is now the melee range at close range (so you only do melee damage at close range and spirit is the default) | ||
| 2026-03-06 | rend_cooldownability:rend | Buff | 13s | 16s | Rend cooldown increased from 13s to 16s |
| 2026-03-06 | rend_damage_rangeability:rend | Nerf | 18m | 16m | Rend damage range reduced from 18m to 16m |
| 2026-03-06 | rend_damage_spirit_scalingability:rend | Buff | 1.4 | 1 | Rend damage spirit scaling increased from 1.4 to 1.8 |
| 2026-03-06 | rend_t1_bonus_damageability:rend | Buff | +32 | +40 | Rend T1 bonus damage increased from +32 to +40 |
| 2026-03-06 | rend_t3ability:rend | Rework | "Gain 45% Bullet Lifesteal against affected enemies for 4s" | "Close range attack now silences enemies for 2 | Rend T3 changed from "Gain 45% Bullet Lifesteal against affected enemies for 4s" to "Close range attack now silences enemies for 2.3s" |
| 2026-03-06 | stalker_s_mark_durationability:stalker_s_mark | Nerf | 6s | 5s | Stalker's Mark duration reduced from 6s to 5s |
| 2026-03-06 | stalker_s_mark_t1ability:stalker_s_mark | Rework | "+1% Bleed" | "-8% Bullet Resist" | Stalker's Mark T1 changed from "+1% Bleed" to "-8% Bullet Resist" |
| 2026-03-06 | stalker_s_mark_t2ability:stalker_s_mark | Rework | "+22% Fire Rate for 6s after ambush" | "+3s Duration and -8s Cooldown" | Stalker's Mark T2 changed from "+22% Fire Rate for 6s after ambush" to "+3s Duration and -8s Cooldown" |
| 2026-03-06 | stalker_s_mark_t3ability:stalker_s_mark | Rework | "Enables 2 Charges and +2s Duration" | "+2% Bleed and -40% Healing" | Stalker's Mark T3 changed from "Enables 2 Charges and +2s Duration" to "+2% Bleed and -40% Healing" |
| 2025-11-21 | rend_cooldownability:rend | Nerf | 15s | 13s | Rend cooldown reduced from 15s to 13s |
| 2025-11-21 | base_regenvitality | Buff | 2.5 | 3 | Base regen increased from 2.5 to 3.5 |
Hero Balance Predictions
Drifter buff/nerf prototype
Forecasts whether Drifter is likely to change next patch, using recent patch history and the Drifter predictor DuckDB.