Deadlock Hero Balance Predictions
Deadman Danny buff/nerf predictor prototype
Generated from the Deadman Danny predictor DuckDB, recent patch history, and a three-stage prediction model.
Prediction Model
Deadman Danny Buff/Nerf Watch
This page is the hero-side version of the item prediction screen. The target is whether a hero looks more likely to be buffed, nerfed, or left alone in a future patch. This first page is Deadman Danny-only so the predictors can be reviewed before expanding to every hero.
Best read: this is now a three-stage experiment. It first asks whether Deadman Danny is likely to change, then which broad mechanic would be selected, then the direction of that selected mechanic. Later stages are conditional and must not be read as standalone certainty.
- Stage 1
- Will Deadman Danny receive any balance change in the next patch?
- Stage 2
- If Deadman Danny changes, which mechanic family is most likely to be selected?
- Stage 3
- If that family is selected, does its patch direction look like buff, nerf, or mixed/rework?
- Future learning
- Weekly snapshots preserve hero stats and ability values over time. They are enabled as model features only after changed and unchanged patches both have adequate coverage.
Three-Stage Next-Patch Forecast
1
Will Deadman Danny change?
66.7%
Estimated chance of any Deadman Danny balance change. No-change estimate: 33.3%.
Disclaimer: Experimental. This is based on one hero's patch history and has not been proven accurate — Stage 1 and Stage 2 don't yet beat a simple "no change" guess on holdout data. Treat every number on this page as a rough signal, not a confirmed forecast.
Stages 2 and 3: target and direction if Deadman Danny changes
| Mechanic | Selected if changed | Direction | Buff if selected | Nerf if selected | Mixed/rework if selected | Combined priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chimera Mk1 | 27.7% | Nerf | 5.0% | 78.9% | 16.1% | 18.5% |
| Close The Deal | 26.5% | Nerf | 9.2% | 75.0% | 15.8% | 17.7% |
| Strix Salvo | 24.7% | Nerf | 5.6% | 79.4% | 15.0% | 16.5% |
| Vitality | 16.1% | Nerf | 10.9% | 62.0% | 27.1% | 10.8% |
| Weapon | 8.7% | Nerf | 9.0% | 72.4% | 18.5% | 5.8% |
| Spirit | 8.3% | Nerf | 9.0% | 72.4% | 18.5% | 5.5% |
| Jettison Fuel | 5.5% | Nerf | 22.4% | 46.0% | 31.7% | 3.7% |
Combined priority multiplies Stage 1 by Stage 2 to help sort the watchlist. It is not a calibrated probability that the named mechanic will change.
Validation and Data Readiness
Every stage uses older patches for training and newer patches for testing. The current patch calendar contains 168 update dates through 2026-11-05.
| Stage | Test rows | Balanced accuracy | Macro F1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stage 1 - hero changedWhether Deadman Danny receives any balance change. | 34 | 50.0% | 0.477 |
| Stage 2 - mechanic selectedWhich mechanic family is selected if Deadman Danny changes. | 238 | 50.0% | 0.488 |
| Stage 3 - conditional directionBuff, nerf, or mixed/rework after a mechanic is selected. | 3 | 0.0% | 0.000 |
Performance feature gate: withheld. Historical pre-patch win-rate coverage is 1.8%; the required coverage is 80.0%. Performance features are withheld because missingness is too sparse or too strongly associated with whether Deadman Danny changed.
The weekly collector now stores all hero performance, base stats, and ability properties without overwriting prior snapshots. Once enough unchanged and changed patches have comparable coverage, performance and ability-strength features can enter training without leaking the answer.
Deadman Danny Patch Changes
25 Deadman Danny patch-change rows are included from the recent patch window.
| Patch | Predictor | Direction | Before | After | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-05 | chimera_mk1_t2ability:chimera_mk1 | Nerf | 150 Heal On Hit | 125 | Chimera Mk1 - T2 reduced from 150 Heal On Hit to 125 |
| 2026-11-05 | chimera_mk1_t2_heal_spirit_scalingability:chimera_mk1 | Nerf | 2.0 | 1 | Chimera Mk1 - T2 heal spirit scaling reduced from 2.0 to 1.7 |
| 2026-11-05 | close_the_deal_bonus_damage_to_under_half_health_targetsability:close_the_deal | Nerf | +75% | +55% | Close The Deal - Bonus damage to under half health targets reduced from +75% to +55% |
| 2026-11-05 | strix_salvo_spirit_scalingability:strix_salvo | Nerf | Strix Salvo - Spirit scaling reduced by 8% | ||
| 2026-10-30 | chimera_mk1ability:chimera_mk1 | Rework | Chimera Mk1 - Fixed bug causing it to not deal damage when held through a Close The Deal | ||
| 2026-10-30 | chimera_mk1_cooldown_reduction_per_boonability:chimera_mk1 | Nerf | -0.4s | -0 | Chimera Mk1 - Cooldown reduction per boon reduced from -0.4s to -0.25s |
| 2026-10-30 | chimera_mk1_cooldown_refund_on_hit_from_t3ability:chimera_mk1 | Nerf | T3 reduced from 50% | 30% | Chimera Mk1 - Cooldown refund on hit from T3 reduced from 50% to 30% |
| 2026-10-30 | chimera_mk1_items_and_abilities_that_pull_to_the_groundability:chimera_mk1 | Rework | Chimera Mk1 - Items and abilities that pull to the ground now work more reliably against Danny | ||
| 2026-10-30 | chimera_mk1_jetpack_canability:chimera_mk1 | Nerf | Chimera Mk1 - Jetpack can no longer be used while cursed | ||
| 2026-10-30 | chimera_mk1_slowsability:chimera_mk1 | Rework | Chimera Mk1 - Slows now reduce the jetpack's in-air impulse more effectively, and even more if movement abilities are silenced | ||
| 2026-10-30 | close_the_dealability:close_the_deal | Rework | Close the Deal - Fixed some incorrect behavior when used at the top of the belltower | ||
| 2026-10-15 | chimera_mk1_cooldown_boon_scalingability:chimera_mk1 | Buff | -0.25 | -0 | Chimera Mk1 - Cooldown boon scaling increased from -0.25 to -0.45 |
| 2026-10-15 | chimera_mk1_heal_on_hit_spirit_scalingability:chimera_mk1 | Buff | 1 | 2 | Chimera Mk1 - Heal on hit spirit scaling increased from 1 to 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | chimera_mk1_slow_effectiveness_in_airability:chimera_mk1 | Nerf | Chimera Mk1 - Slow effectiveness in air reduced by 15% | ||
| 2026-10-15 | chimera_mk1_weapon_scalingability:chimera_mk1 | Buff | 1.15 | 1 | Chimera Mk1 weapon scaling increased from 1.15 to 1.4 |
| 2026-10-15 | close_the_deal_1apability:close_the_deal | Buff | +50 | +90 | Close the Deal - 1AP increased from +50 to +90 |
| 2026-10-15 | close_the_deal_bonus_damage_to_under_half_health_targetsability:close_the_deal | Buff | +50% | +75% | Close The Deal - Bonus damage to under half health targets increased from +50% to +75% |
| 2026-10-15 | strix_salvo_cooldown_from_30s_to_25sability:strix_salvo | Rework | 30s | 25s | Strix Salvo - Cooldown from 30s to 25s |
| 2026-10-15 | strix_salvo_damage_spirit_scaling_from_0_9_to_1_1ability:strix_salvo | Rework | 0.9 | 1 | Strix Salvo - Damage spirit scaling from 0.9 to 1.1 |
| 2026-10-15 | strix_salvo_t2ability:strix_salvo | Buff | "+20 damage / +35 mark damage" | "+30 damage / +45 mark damage" | Strix Salvo - T2 increased from "+20 damage / +35 mark damage" to "+30 damage / +45 mark damage" |
| 2026-10-15 | strix_salvo_t3ability:strix_salvo | Buff | +0.2 spirit scaling | +0 | Strix Salvo - T3 increased from +0.2 spirit scaling to +0.35 |
| 2026-10-15 | rocket_jumping_self_damage_from_6_5_max_hp_to_5_and_isspirit | Rework | 6.5% max HP | 5% and is now spirit damage | Rocket Jumping - Self damage from 6.5% max HP to 5% and is now spirit damage |
| 2026-10-15 | base_healthvitality | Buff | 680 | 730 | Base health increased from 680 to 730 |
| 2026-10-15 | health_regenvitality | Buff | 2.5 | 3 | Health regen increased from 2.5 to 3.25 |
| 2026-10-15 | gun_base_bullet_damage_for_uncharged_shots_from_12_to_15_and_charged_shots_from_44_to_48weapon | Rework | 12 | 15 and charged shots from 44 to 48 | Gun - Base bullet damage for uncharged shots from 12 to 15 and charged shots from 44 to 48 |
Hero Balance Predictions
Deadman Danny buff/nerf prototype
Forecasts whether Deadman Danny is likely to change next patch, using recent patch history and the Deadman Danny predictor DuckDB.