Vegas Deadlock Weekly Report

Each hero below has its own review box again. Use the loss patterns as replay topics first, then compare against the stronger pattern before changing the build.

Clear path heroes

Lash - Spirit path issue: review whether Spirit buying reached a real power spike or became scattered.

Graves - Survivability/timing issue: Vitality timing appears tied to the losing pattern.

Drifter - Spirit path issue: review whether Spirit buying reached a real power spike or became scattered.

Sinclair - Build structure issue: too many tier-1 items may mean the player stayed in cheap items instead of upgrading.

Pocket - Spirit path issue: review whether Spirit buying reached a real power spike or became scattered.

No clear path heroes

Every modeled hero has a usable item-timing path.

These heroes have a readable item-timing pattern to compare in replays.

Lash Item and Matchup Report

Matches tested: 50

Main loss pattern: Spirit item count by 20:00 was 7 or less (38% win rate across 29 matches)

Review note: Spirit path issue: review whether Spirit buying reached a real power spike or became scattered.

Better pattern: Spirit item count by 20:00 was more than 7 (71% win rate across 21 matches)

Replay comparison

Tier 2 (1,600 Souls) item count by 10:00 was 2 or less - 33% good-game rate across 28 matches.

Tier 2 (1,600 Souls) item count by 10:00 was more than 2 - 73% good-game rate across 22 matches.

Items that looked strong

Item	Win rate	Purchases	Median purchase time
Spirit Burn	82%	16 purchases	27:29
Unstoppable	73%	11 purchases	32:26
Warp Stone	72%	26 purchases	22:48
Transcendent Cooldown	70%	17 purchases	31:14
Cold Front	65%	28 purchases	6:34

Items to watch carefully

Item	Win rate	Purchases	Median purchase time
Headshot Booster	37%	11 purchases	1:07
Cultist Sacrifice	42%	19 purchases	11:29
Healing Rite	48%	21 purchases	4:42
Quicksilver Reload	48%	27 purchases	6:57
Mystic Shot	51%	16 purchases	12:45

Enemy hero matchup

Graves Item and Matchup Report

Matches tested: 50

Main loss pattern: Had Active Reload by 20:00 (35% win rate across 28 matches)

Review note: Survivability/timing issue: Vitality timing appears tied to the losing pattern.

Better pattern: Did not have Active Reload by 20:00 (58% win rate across 22 matches)

Replay comparison

Did not have Extra Spirit by 15:00 - 38% good-game rate across 23 matches.

Had Extra Spirit by 15:00 - 62% good-game rate across 27 matches.

Items that looked strong

Item	Win rate	Purchases	Median purchase time
Counterspell	62%	21 purchases	25:32
Spirit Resilience	58%	23 purchases	28:02
Echo Shard	56%	9 purchases	17:32
Inhibitor	54%	24 purchases	23:05
Heroic Aura	53%	21 purchases	23:32

Items to watch carefully

Item	Win rate	Purchases	Median purchase time
Arcane Surge	23%	12 purchases	6:43
Active Reload	33%	29 purchases	6:10
Reactive Barrier	35%	11 purchases	12:01
Enchanter's Emblem	37%	27 purchases	11:43
Duration Extender	40%	14 purchases	13:11

Enemy hero matchup

Drifter Item and Matchup Report

Matches tested: 50

Main loss pattern: Spirit item spend by 15:00 was at most 4,320 (41% win rate across 29 matches)

Review note: Spirit path issue: review whether Spirit buying reached a real power spike or became scattered.

Better pattern: Spirit item spend by 15:00 was more than 4,320 (72% win rate across 21 matches)

Replay comparison

Did not have Bullet Resist Shredder by 20:00 - 41% good-game rate across 30 matches.

Had Bullet Resist Shredder by 20:00 - 71% good-game rate across 20 matches.

Items that looked strong

Item	Win rate	Purchases	Median purchase time
Sprint Boots	67%	19 purchases	8:25
Vampiric Burst	66%	20 purchases	26:24
Inhibitor	65%	12 purchases	23:44
Spirit Snatch	60%	33 purchases	13:53
Spellbreaker	60%	13 purchases	28:36

Items to watch carefully

Item	Win rate	Purchases	Median purchase time
Battle Vest	37%	20 purchases	7:01
Hunter's Aura	42%	21 purchases	23:24
Slowing Bullets	45%	13 purchases	14:06
Dispel Magic	45%	16 purchases	18:28
Spirit Resilience	46%	17 purchases	27:09

Enemy hero matchup

Sinclair Item and Matchup Report

Matches tested: 50

Main loss pattern: Tier 1 (800 Souls) item count by 15:00 was more than 3 (19% win rate across 18 matches)

Review note: Build structure issue: too many tier-1 items may mean the player stayed in cheap items instead of upgrading.

Better pattern: Tier 1 (800 Souls) item count by 15:00 was 3 or less (60% win rate across 32 matches)

Items that looked strong

Item	Win rate	Purchases	Median purchase time
Transcendent Cooldown	60%	17 purchases	31:28
Diviner's Kevlar	54%	17 purchases	26:44
Monster Rounds	53%	13 purchases	1:02
Mystic Vulnerability	52%	12 purchases	28:10
Dispel Magic	52%	32 purchases	24:05

Items to watch carefully

Item	Win rate	Purchases	Median purchase time
Compress Cooldown	33%	20 purchases	16:13
Sprint Boots	37%	37 purchases	11:17
Rapid Recharge	41%	16 purchases	8:50
Extra Spirit	44%	38 purchases	1:14
Spirit Lifesteal	44%	14 purchases	24:46

Enemy hero matchup

Pocket Item and Matchup Report

Matches tested: 50

Main loss pattern: Tier 3 (3,200 Souls) item count by 20:00 was 3 or less (25% win rate across 25 matches)

Review note: Spirit path issue: review whether Spirit buying reached a real power spike or became scattered.

Better pattern: Tier 3 (3,200 Souls) item count by 20:00 was more than 3 (74% win rate across 25 matches)

Replay comparison

Item total spend by 15:00 was at most 13,760 - 23% good-game rate across 22 matches.

Item total spend by 15:00 was more than 13,760 - 72% good-game rate across 28 matches.

Items that looked strong

Item	Win rate	Purchases	Median purchase time
Boundless Spirit	62%	15 purchases	31:45
Cultist Sacrifice	58%	29 purchases	10:28
Restorative Shot	57%	18 purchases	1:06
Extra Spirit	56%	29 purchases	5:12
Monster Rounds	56%	23 purchases	8:34

Items to watch carefully

Item	Win rate	Purchases	Median purchase time
Compress Cooldown	36%	16 purchases	12:44
Extra Stamina	40%	28 purchases	13:12
Enchanter's Emblem	43%	20 purchases	14:19
Superior Duration	43%	37 purchases	24:09
Mystic Expansion	44%	39 purchases	7:54

Enemy hero matchup

Viscous Item and Matchup Report

Matches tested: 50

Review note: Review this hero in replays before treating any pattern as causal.

Win pattern: Had Spirit Strike by 15:00 (81% win rate across 28 matches)

Replay comparison

Tier 3 (3,200 Souls) item count by 20:00 was 3 or less - 34% good-game rate across 28 matches.

Tier 3 (3,200 Souls) item count by 20:00 was more than 3 - 71% good-game rate across 22 matches.

Items that looked strong

Item	Win rate	Purchases	Median purchase time
Crushing Fists	87%	22 purchases	25:43
Greater Expansion	80%	24 purchases	27:47
Transcendent Cooldown	79%	29 purchases	28:32
Ballistic Enchantment	78%	26 purchases	20:07
Spirit Strike	77%	32 purchases	11:25

Items to watch carefully

Item	Win rate	Purchases	Median purchase time
High-Velocity Rounds	50%	18 purchases	3:00
Glass Cannon	56%	13 purchases	19:56
Mystic Burst	62%	20 purchases	1:08
Battle Vest	65%	28 purchases	8:37
Cultist Sacrifice	67%	30 purchases	10:20

Enemy hero matchup

Use these hero boxes as replay checklists. The patterns are signals, not proof: compare the losing pattern games against the stronger pattern games before changing the whole build. Treat items listed under watch carefully as possible already-hard-game buys before treating them as the cause.