Deadlock Hero Balance Predictions
Celeste buff/nerf predictor prototype
Generated from the Celeste predictor DuckDB, recent patch history, and a three-stage prediction model.
Prediction Model
Celeste Buff/Nerf Watch
This page is the hero-side version of the item prediction screen. The target is whether a hero looks more likely to be buffed, nerfed, or left alone in a future patch. This first page is Celeste-only so the predictors can be reviewed before expanding to every hero.
Best read: this is now a three-stage experiment. It first asks whether Celeste is likely to change, then which broad mechanic would be selected, then the direction of that selected mechanic. Later stages are conditional and must not be read as standalone certainty.
- Stage 1
- Will Celeste receive any balance change in the next patch?
- Stage 2
- If Celeste changes, which mechanic family is most likely to be selected?
- Stage 3
- If that family is selected, does its patch direction look like buff, nerf, or mixed/rework?
- Future learning
- Weekly snapshots preserve hero stats and ability values over time. They are enabled as model features only after changed and unchanged patches both have adequate coverage.
Three-Stage Next-Patch Forecast
1
Will Celeste change?
11.9%
Estimated chance of any Celeste balance change. No-change estimate: 88.1%.
Disclaimer: Experimental. This is based on one hero's patch history and has not been proven accurate — Stage 1 and Stage 2 don't yet beat a simple "no change" guess on holdout data. Treat every number on this page as a rough signal, not a confirmed forecast.
Stages 2 and 3: target and direction if Celeste changes
| Mechanic | Selected if changed | Direction | Buff if selected | Nerf if selected | Mixed/rework if selected | Combined priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spirit | 4.2% | Mixed Or Rework | 34.9% | 21.2% | 43.9% | 0.5% |
| Shining Wonder | 3.5% | Buff | 59.7% | 21.3% | 19.0% | 0.4% |
| Vitality | 2.1% | Buff | 54.2% | 20.7% | 25.1% | 0.3% |
| Radiant Daggers | 1.9% | Buff | 45.0% | 22.8% | 32.1% | 0.2% |
| Light Eater | 1.7% | Buff | 45.3% | 28.3% | 26.3% | 0.2% |
| Weapon | 1.6% | Buff | 51.9% | 24.6% | 23.5% | 0.2% |
| Dazzling Trick | 0.9% | Buff | 53.2% | 24.7% | 22.1% | 0.1% |
Combined priority multiplies Stage 1 by Stage 2 to help sort the watchlist. It is not a calibrated probability that the named mechanic will change.
Validation and Data Readiness
Every stage uses older patches for training and newer patches for testing. The current patch calendar contains 138 update dates through 2026-06-12.
| Stage | Test rows | Balanced accuracy | Macro F1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stage 1 - hero changedWhether Celeste receives any balance change. | 28 | 50.0% | 0.472 |
| Stage 2 - mechanic selectedWhich mechanic family is selected if Celeste changes. | 196 | 50.0% | 0.486 |
| Stage 3 - conditional directionBuff, nerf, or mixed/rework after a mechanic is selected. | 3 | 50.0% | 0.400 |
Performance feature gate: withheld. Historical pre-patch win-rate coverage is 0.0%; the required coverage is 80.0%. Performance features are withheld because missingness is too sparse or too strongly associated with whether Celeste changed.
The weekly collector now stores all hero performance, base stats, and ability properties without overwriting prior snapshots. Once enough unchanged and changed patches have comparable coverage, performance and ability-strength features can enter training without leaking the answer.
Celeste Patch Changes
28 Celeste patch-change rows are included from the recent patch window.
| Patch | Predictor | Direction | Before | After | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-22 | radiant_daggers_t2ability:radiant_daggers | Rework | "-18s Cooldown and +70 Damage" | "-22s Cooldown and +80 Damage" | Radiant Daggers T2 changed from "-18s Cooldown and +70 Damage" to "-22s Cooldown and +80 Damage" |
| 2026-05-22 | shining_wonder_t2ability:shining_wonder | Buff | +50 Damage | +70 | Shining Wonder T2 increased from +50 Damage to +70 |
| 2026-05-22 | improved_the_hero_s_hitboxes_easier_to_hitvitality | Buff | Improved the hero's hitboxes (easier to hit) | ||
| 2026-05-22 | stamina_cooldownvitality | Buff | 4.5s | 5s | Stamina cooldown increased from 4.5s to 5s |
| 2026-04-30 | shining_wonder_damageability:shining_wonder | Buff | 120 | 135 | Shining Wonder damage increased from 120 to 135 |
| 2026-04-30 | shining_wonder_radiusability:shining_wonder | Buff | 14m | 15 | Shining Wonder radius increased from 14m to 15.5m |
| 2026-04-30 | bullet_cycle_timeweapon | Nerf | 0.65 | 0 | Bullet cycle time reduced from 0.65 to 0.58 |
| 2026-03-06 | dazzling_trickability:dazzling_trick | Nerf | Dazzling Trick no longer grants +1m Move Speed | ||
| 2026-03-06 | dazzling_trick_barrier_spirit_scalingability:dazzling_trick | Nerf | 1.1 | 0 | Dazzling Trick barrier spirit scaling reduced from 1.1 to 0.8 |
| 2026-03-06 | dazzling_trick_t1ability:dazzling_trick | Buff | +2.5m Move Speed | +3 | Dazzling Trick T1 increased from +2.5m Move Speed to +3.5m |
| 2026-03-06 | light_eater_on_hit_damageability:light_eater | Nerf | 25 | 20 | Light Eater on hit damage reduced from 25 to 20 |
| 2026-03-06 | light_eater_spirit_scalingability:light_eater | Buff | 0.23 | 0 | Light Eater spirit scaling increased from 0.23 to 0.28 |
| 2026-03-06 | radiant_daggers_spirit_scalingability:radiant_daggers | Buff | 0.42 | 0 | Radiant Daggers spirit scaling increased from 0.42 to 0.56 |
| 2026-03-06 | radiant_daggers_t2ability:radiant_daggers | Buff | "-15s Cooldown and +60 Damage" | "-18s Cooldown and +70 Damage" | Radiant Daggers T2 increased from "-15s Cooldown and +60 Damage" to "-18s Cooldown and +70 Damage" |
| 2026-03-06 | radiant_daggers_t3_fire_rateability:radiant_daggers | Buff | 6% | 7% | Radiant Daggers T3 fire rate increased from 6% to 7% |
| 2026-03-06 | shining_wonderability:shining_wonder | Nerf | Shining Wonder no longer refunds half cooldown on miss | ||
| 2026-03-06 | shining_wonder_bounce_rangeability:shining_wonder | Nerf | 17m | 15m | Shining Wonder bounce range reduced from 17m to 15m |
| 2026-03-06 | shining_wonder_linger_durationability:shining_wonder | Nerf | 4.5s | 3 | Shining Wonder linger duration reduced from 4.5s to 3.25s |
| 2026-03-06 | shining_wonder_linger_timeability:shining_wonder | Nerf | 3.25s | 3s | Shining Wonder linger time reduced from 3.25s to 3s |
| 2026-03-06 | shining_wonder_rangeability:shining_wonder | Nerf | 15m | 14m | Shining Wonder range reduced from 15m to 14m |
| 2026-03-06 | shining_wonder_t3ability:shining_wonder | Nerf | +10 Max Bounces | +8 | Shining Wonder T3 reduced from +10 Max Bounces to +8 |
| 2026-03-06 | air_controlvitality | Buff | 38% | 44% (was 50% previous patch) | Air Control increased from 38% to 44% (was 50% previous patch) |
| 2026-03-06 | air_control_accelerationvitality | Nerf | +50/18% | +38/12% (less air control and acceleration) | Air Control/Acceleration reduced from +50/18% to +38/12% (less air control and acceleration) |
| 2026-03-06 | gravityvitality | Nerf | -20% | -28% (less gravity) | Gravity reduced from -20% to -28% (less gravity) |
| 2026-03-06 | gravity_from_28_to_25_was_20_previous_patchvitality | Rework | 28% | 25% (was 20% previous patch) | Gravity from 28% to 25% (was 20% previous patch) |
| 2026-03-06 | gunvitality | Rework | Gun now has falloff 22m->60m | ||
| 2026-03-06 | bullet_damageweapon | Buff | 18+0.6 | 22+0 | Bullet damage increased from 18+0.6 to 22+0.7 |
| 2026-03-06 | bullet_melee_resistanceweapon | Nerf | -6% | -8% | Bullet/Melee resistance reduced from -6% to -8% |
Hero Balance Predictions
Celeste buff/nerf prototype
Forecasts whether Celeste is likely to change next patch, using recent patch history and the Celeste predictor DuckDB.