Deadlock Hero Balance Predictions
Celeste buff/nerf predictor prototype
Generated from the Celeste predictor DuckDB, recent patch history, and a three-stage prediction model.
Prediction Model

Celeste Buff/Nerf Watch

This page is the hero-side version of the item prediction screen. The target is whether a hero looks more likely to be buffed, nerfed, or left alone in a future patch. This first page is Celeste-only so the predictors can be reviewed before expanding to every hero.

Best read: this is now a three-stage experiment. It first asks whether Celeste is likely to change, then which broad mechanic would be selected, then the direction of that selected mechanic. Later stages are conditional and must not be read as standalone certainty.
Stage 1
Will Celeste receive any balance change in the next patch?
Stage 2
If Celeste changes, which mechanic family is most likely to be selected?
Stage 3
If that family is selected, does its patch direction look like buff, nerf, or mixed/rework?
Future learning
Weekly snapshots preserve hero stats and ability values over time. They are enabled as model features only after changed and unchanged patches both have adequate coverage.
Three-Stage Next-Patch Forecast
1

Will Celeste change?

24.4%

Estimated chance of any Celeste balance change. No-change estimate: 75.6%.

Disclaimer: Experimental. This is based on one hero's patch history and has not been proven accurate — Stage 1 and Stage 2 don't yet beat a simple "no change" guess on holdout data. Treat every number on this page as a rough signal, not a confirmed forecast.

Stages 2 and 3: target and direction if Celeste changes

Mechanic Selected if changed Direction Buff if selected Nerf if selected Mixed/rework if selected Combined priority
Dazzling Trick 19.4% Buff 44.8% 30.5% 24.8% 4.7%
Radiant Daggers 19.0% Nerf 32.7% 41.8% 25.5% 4.6%
Shining Wonder 18.4% Nerf 34.7% 43.8% 21.4% 4.5%
Vitality 16.4% Buff 49.3% 27.1% 23.6% 4.0%
Light Eater 15.3% Nerf 34.1% 40.5% 25.4% 3.7%
Weapon 12.0% Nerf 31.5% 39.8% 28.7% 2.9%
Spirit 7.0% Mixed Or Rework 20.8% 37.5% 41.7% 1.7%

Combined priority multiplies Stage 1 by Stage 2 to help sort the watchlist. It is not a calibrated probability that the named mechanic will change.

Validation and Data Readiness

Every stage uses older patches for training and newer patches for testing. The current patch calendar contains 151 update dates through 2026-09-16.

Stage Test rows Balanced accuracy Macro F1
Stage 1 - hero changedWhether Celeste receives any balance change. 31 50.0% 0.446
Stage 2 - mechanic selectedWhich mechanic family is selected if Celeste changes. 217 50.0% 0.480
Stage 3 - conditional directionBuff, nerf, or mixed/rework after a mechanic is selected. 8 44.4% 0.315
Performance feature gate: withheld. Historical pre-patch win-rate coverage is 8.6%; the required coverage is 80.0%. Performance features are withheld because missingness is too sparse or too strongly associated with whether Celeste changed.

The weekly collector now stores all hero performance, base stats, and ability properties without overwriting prior snapshots. Once enough unchanged and changed patches have comparable coverage, performance and ability-strength features can enter training without leaking the answer.

Celeste Patch Changes

53 Celeste patch-change rows are included from the recent patch window.

Patch Predictor Direction Before After Notes
2026-09-16 dazzling_trick_cooldownability:dazzling_trick Buff 34s 38s Dazzling Trick cooldown increased from 34s to 38s
2026-09-16 light_eater_spirit_lifestealability:light_eater Nerf 20% 18% Light Eater spirit lifesteal reduced from 20% to 18%
2026-09-16 light_eater_t3ability:light_eater Nerf +25 +22 Light Eater T3 decreased from +25 to +22
2026-09-16 radiant_daggers_t2ability:radiant_daggers Nerf +80 +70 Radiant Daggers T2 reduced from +80 to +70
2026-09-16 shining_wonder_radiusability:shining_wonder Nerf 16.5m 15 Shining Wonder radius reduced from 16.5m to 15.5m
2026-09-16 shining_wonder_t3_max_bouncesability:shining_wonder Nerf +8 +6 Shining Wonder T3 Max Bounces reduced from +8 to +6
2026-09-16 stamina_cooldownvitality Buff 5 5 Stamina cooldown increased from 5 to 5.3
2026-08-22 dazzling_trick_cooldownability:dazzling_trick Buff 32s 34s Dazzling Trick cooldown increased from 32s to 34s
2026-08-22 dazzling_trick_t2_barrier_rescaled_from_80_and_0_7_scaling_to_70_and_0_76ability:dazzling_trick Rework "+80 and +0.7 scaling" "+70 and +0 Dazzling Trick T2 barrier rescaled from "+80 and +0.7 scaling" to "+70 and +0.76"
2026-08-22 dazzling_trick_t3ability:dazzling_trick Nerf +1.5s Silence +1 Dazzling Trick T3 reduced from +1.5s Silence to +1.25s
2026-08-22 dazzling_trick_t3_cooldownability:dazzling_trick Buff -18s -20s Dazzling Trick T3 cooldown increased from -18s to -20s
2026-08-22 radiant_daggers_spirit_amp_per_stackability:radiant_daggers Nerf +8% +7% Radiant Daggers Spirit Amp per stack reduced from +8% to +7%
2026-08-22 radiant_daggers_t3_spirit_amp_per_stackability:radiant_daggers Buff +3% +4% Radiant Daggers T3 Spirit Amp per stack increased from +3% to +4%
2026-08-22 shining_wonder_bounce_rangeability:shining_wonder Nerf 17.5m 16 Shining Wonder bounce range reduced from 17.5m to 16.5m
2026-08-22 shining_wonder_damageability:shining_wonder Nerf 165 140 Shining Wonder damage reduced from 165 to 140
2026-08-22 shining_wonder_spirit_scalingability:shining_wonder Nerf 0.9 0 Shining Wonder spirit scaling reduced from 0.9 to 0.6
2026-08-22 shining_wonder_t2ability:shining_wonder Buff Shining Wonder T2 now also increases spirit scaling by +0.45
2026-07-28 shining_wonder_buffer_durationability:shining_wonder Buff 3s 3 Shining Wonder buffer duration increased from 3s to 3.25s
2026-07-28 shining_wonder_damageability:shining_wonder Buff Shining Wonder damage increased by 10%
2026-07-28 shining_wonder_radiusability:shining_wonder Buff 16.5m 17 Shining Wonder radius increased from 16.5m to 17.5m
2026-06-30 dazzling_trick_cooldownability:dazzling_trick Nerf 35s 32s Dazzling Trick cooldown reduced from 35s to 32s
2026-06-30 radiant_daggers_buff_durationability:radiant_daggers Buff 25s 30s Radiant Daggers buff duration increased from 25s to 30s
2026-06-30 radiant_daggers_spirit_scalingability:radiant_daggers Buff 0.56 0 Radiant Daggers spirit scaling increased from 0.56 to 0.63
2026-06-30 shining_wonder_bounce_rangeability:shining_wonder Buff 15.5m 16 Shining Wonder bounce range increased from 15.5m to 16.5m
2026-06-30 shining_wonder_damageability:shining_wonder Buff Shining Wonder damage increased by 10%
2026-05-22 radiant_daggers_t2ability:radiant_daggers Rework "-18s Cooldown and +70 Damage" "-22s Cooldown and +80 Damage" Radiant Daggers T2 changed from "-18s Cooldown and +70 Damage" to "-22s Cooldown and +80 Damage"
2026-05-22 shining_wonder_t2ability:shining_wonder Buff +50 Damage +70 Shining Wonder T2 increased from +50 Damage to +70
2026-05-22 improved_the_hero_s_hitboxes_easier_to_hitvitality Buff Improved the hero's hitboxes (easier to hit)
2026-05-22 stamina_cooldownvitality Buff 4.5s 5s Stamina cooldown increased from 4.5s to 5s
2026-04-30 shining_wonder_damageability:shining_wonder Buff 120 135 Shining Wonder damage increased from 120 to 135
2026-04-30 shining_wonder_radiusability:shining_wonder Buff 14m 15 Shining Wonder radius increased from 14m to 15.5m
2026-04-30 bullet_cycle_timeweapon Nerf 0.65 0 Bullet cycle time reduced from 0.65 to 0.58
2026-03-06 dazzling_trickability:dazzling_trick Nerf Dazzling Trick no longer grants +1m Move Speed
2026-03-06 dazzling_trick_barrier_spirit_scalingability:dazzling_trick Nerf 1.1 0 Dazzling Trick barrier spirit scaling reduced from 1.1 to 0.8
2026-03-06 dazzling_trick_t1ability:dazzling_trick Buff +2.5m Move Speed +3 Dazzling Trick T1 increased from +2.5m Move Speed to +3.5m
2026-03-06 light_eater_on_hit_damageability:light_eater Nerf 25 20 Light Eater on hit damage reduced from 25 to 20
2026-03-06 light_eater_spirit_scalingability:light_eater Buff 0.23 0 Light Eater spirit scaling increased from 0.23 to 0.28
2026-03-06 radiant_daggers_spirit_scalingability:radiant_daggers Buff 0.42 0 Radiant Daggers spirit scaling increased from 0.42 to 0.56
2026-03-06 radiant_daggers_t2ability:radiant_daggers Buff "-15s Cooldown and +60 Damage" "-18s Cooldown and +70 Damage" Radiant Daggers T2 increased from "-15s Cooldown and +60 Damage" to "-18s Cooldown and +70 Damage"
2026-03-06 radiant_daggers_t3_fire_rateability:radiant_daggers Buff 6% 7% Radiant Daggers T3 fire rate increased from 6% to 7%
2026-03-06 shining_wonderability:shining_wonder Nerf Shining Wonder no longer refunds half cooldown on miss
2026-03-06 shining_wonder_bounce_rangeability:shining_wonder Nerf 17m 15m Shining Wonder bounce range reduced from 17m to 15m
2026-03-06 shining_wonder_linger_durationability:shining_wonder Nerf 4.5s 3 Shining Wonder linger duration reduced from 4.5s to 3.25s
2026-03-06 shining_wonder_linger_timeability:shining_wonder Nerf 3.25s 3s Shining Wonder linger time reduced from 3.25s to 3s
2026-03-06 shining_wonder_rangeability:shining_wonder Nerf 15m 14m Shining Wonder range reduced from 15m to 14m
2026-03-06 shining_wonder_t3ability:shining_wonder Nerf +10 Max Bounces +8 Shining Wonder T3 reduced from +10 Max Bounces to +8
2026-03-06 air_controlvitality Buff 38% 44% (was 50% previous patch) Air Control increased from 38% to 44% (was 50% previous patch)
2026-03-06 air_control_accelerationvitality Nerf +50/18% +38/12% (less air control and acceleration) Air Control/Acceleration reduced from +50/18% to +38/12% (less air control and acceleration)
2026-03-06 gravityvitality Nerf -20% -28% (less gravity) Gravity reduced from -20% to -28% (less gravity)
2026-03-06 gravity_from_28_to_25_was_20_previous_patchvitality Rework 28% 25% (was 20% previous patch) Gravity from 28% to 25% (was 20% previous patch)
2026-03-06 gunvitality Rework Gun now has falloff 22m->60m
2026-03-06 bullet_damageweapon Buff 18+0.6 22+0 Bullet damage increased from 18+0.6 to 22+0.7
2026-03-06 bullet_melee_resistanceweapon Nerf -6% -8% Bullet/Melee resistance reduced from -6% to -8%
Deadlock
Hero Balance Predictions
Celeste buff/nerf prototype
Forecasts whether Celeste is likely to change next patch, using recent patch history and the Celeste predictor DuckDB.