Deadlock Hero Balance Predictions
Calico buff/nerf predictor prototype
Generated from the Calico predictor DuckDB, recent patch history, and a three-stage prediction model.
Prediction Model

Calico Buff/Nerf Watch

This page is the hero-side version of the item prediction screen. The target is whether a hero looks more likely to be buffed, nerfed, or left alone in a future patch. This first page is Calico-only so the predictors can be reviewed before expanding to every hero.

Best read: this is now a three-stage experiment. It first asks whether Calico is likely to change, then which broad mechanic would be selected, then the direction of that selected mechanic. Later stages are conditional and must not be read as standalone certainty.
Stage 1
Will Calico receive any balance change in the next patch?
Stage 2
If Calico changes, which mechanic family is most likely to be selected?
Stage 3
If that family is selected, does its patch direction look like buff, nerf, or mixed/rework?
Future learning
Weekly snapshots preserve hero stats and ability values over time. They are enabled as model features only after changed and unchanged patches both have adequate coverage.
Three-Stage Next-Patch Forecast
1

Will Calico change?

19.9%

Estimated chance of any Calico balance change. No-change estimate: 80.1%.

Disclaimer: Experimental. This is based on one hero's patch history and has not been proven accurate — Stage 1 and Stage 2 don't yet beat a simple "no change" guess on holdout data. Treat every number on this page as a rough signal, not a confirmed forecast.

Stages 2 and 3: target and direction if Calico changes

Mechanic Selected if changed Direction Buff if selected Nerf if selected Mixed/rework if selected Combined priority
Vitality 22.2% Mixed Or Rework 31.4% 8.9% 59.7% 4.4%
Leaping Slash 15.0% Mixed Or Rework 32.3% 9.7% 58.0% 3.0%
Ava 14.3% Mixed Or Rework 32.3% 9.7% 58.0% 2.8%
Return To Shadows 9.2% Mixed Or Rework 27.3% 23.0% 49.7% 1.8%
Gloom Bombs 8.5% Mixed Or Rework 34.1% 7.3% 58.6% 1.7%
Weapon 6.2% Mixed Or Rework 29.0% 16.6% 54.4% 1.2%
Spirit 6.0% Mixed Or Rework 31.7% 9.3% 59.0% 1.2%

Combined priority multiplies Stage 1 by Stage 2 to help sort the watchlist. It is not a calibrated probability that the named mechanic will change.

Validation and Data Readiness

Every stage uses older patches for training and newer patches for testing. The current patch calendar contains 138 update dates through 2026-06-12.

Stage Test rows Balanced accuracy Macro F1
Stage 1 - hero changedWhether Calico receives any balance change. 28 50.0% 0.472
Stage 2 - mechanic selectedWhich mechanic family is selected if Calico changes. 196 50.0% 0.488
Stage 3 - conditional directionBuff, nerf, or mixed/rework after a mechanic is selected. 2 50.0% 0.333
Performance feature gate: withheld. Historical pre-patch win-rate coverage is 0.0%; the required coverage is 80.0%. Performance features are withheld because missingness is too sparse or too strongly associated with whether Calico changed.

The weekly collector now stores all hero performance, base stats, and ability properties without overwriting prior snapshots. Once enough unchanged and changed patches have comparable coverage, performance and ability-strength features can enter training without leaking the answer.

Calico Patch Changes

50 Calico patch-change rows are included from the recent patch window.

Patch Predictor Direction Before After Notes
2026-06-12 gloom_bombs_melee_resistability:gloom_bombs Rework Gloom Bombs melee resist now applies on impact rather than explosion
2026-06-12 gloom_bombs_melee_resist_debuffability:gloom_bombs Rework Gloom Bombs melee resist debuff now stacks additively
2026-06-12 gloom_bombs_t2ability:gloom_bombs Buff -5% Melee Resist for 5s -6% for 6s Gloom Bombs T2 increased from -5% Melee Resist for 5s to -6% for 6s
2026-06-12 return_to_shadows_damageability:return_to_shadows Buff 140 150 Return to Shadows damage increased from 140 to 150
2026-06-12 return_to_shadows_t2_damageability:return_to_shadows Buff +65 +75 Return to Shadows T2 damage increased from +65 to +75
2026-06-12 return_to_shadows_t3_healability:return_to_shadows Buff 350 450 Return to Shadows T3 heal increased from 350 to 450
2026-05-22 gloom_bomb_t2weapon Rework "+75 Damage Barriers" to "-5% Melee Resist for 5s Per Bomb" (stacks) Gloom Bomb T2 changed from "+75 Damage to Barriers" to "-5% Melee Resist for 5s Per Bomb" (stacks)
2026-03-06 avaability:ava Rework Ava now gradually recovers speed over time after taking damage, rather than being slowed for the entire duration
2026-03-06 avaability:ava Rework Ava now starts at a minimum speed, and increases to maximum speed over time, resetting on taking damage
2026-03-06 avaability:ava Rework Ava now uses healthbar modifier style for duration
2026-03-06 avaability:ava Rework Ava fixed camera not being centered around Ava
2026-03-06 ava_canability:ava Nerf Ava can no longer manipulate movement if meleeing while midair
2026-03-06 ava_cooldownability:ava Nerf 45s 30s Ava cooldown reduced from 45s to 30s
2026-03-06 ava_durationability:ava Nerf 16s 15s Ava duration reduced from 16s to 15s
2026-03-06 ava_isability:ava Nerf Ava is no longer disabled by damage over time abilities (same as zipline rules)
2026-03-06 ava_melee_attackability:ava Rework Ava melee attack now goes the way you are looking
2026-03-06 ava_melee_attack_cooldownability:ava Buff 0.75 0 Ava melee attack cooldown increased from 0.75 to 0.85
2026-03-06 ava_melee_attack_delayability:ava Nerf 0.4s 0 Ava melee attack delay reduced from 0.4s to 0.0s
2026-03-06 ava_t1_durationability:ava Buff +14s 15s Ava T1 duration increased from +14s to 15s
2026-03-06 ava_t2ability:ava Rework +45% Speed +45% Speed and +15 Health Regen Ava T2 changed from +45% Speed to +45% Speed and +15 Health Regen
2026-03-06 ava_t3ability:ava Rework -20s Cooldown and +35 Health Regen a growing damage amp the longer you are transformed, up to 20% for 6s Ava T3 changed from -20s Cooldown and +35 Health Regen to a growing damage amp the longer you are transformed, up to 20% for 6s
2026-03-06 fixed_gloom_bombs_t2_giving_an_extra_15_flat_bonus_released_a_couple_days_agoability:gloom_bombs Rework Fixed Gloom Bombs T2 giving an extra +15 flat bonus (released a couple days ago)
2026-03-06 gloom_bombsability:gloom_bombs Rework Gloom Bombs changed so the first grenade always lands in the middle
2026-03-06 gloom_bombs_cast_delayability:gloom_bombs Nerf 0.15s 0 Gloom Bombs cast delay reduced from 0.15s to 0.1s
2026-03-06 gloom_bombs_projectile_sticky_radiusability:gloom_bombs Buff 10 15 Gloom Bombs projectile sticky radius increased from 10 to 15
2026-03-06 gloom_bombs_t2ability:gloom_bombs Rework +16.2 damage +75 bonus damage vs barriers Gloom Bombs T2 changed from +16.2 damage to +75 bonus damage vs barriers
2026-03-06 leaping_slash_canability:leaping_slash Rework Leaping Slash can now dash vertically, even while on the ground
2026-03-06 leaping_slash_cooldownability:leaping_slash Buff 11s 13s Leaping Slash cooldown increased from 11s to 13s
2026-03-06 leaping_slash_improved_targeting_of_dash_to_end_early_if_near_enemy_heroesability:leaping_slash Buff Leaping Slash improved targeting of dash to end early if near enemy heroes
2026-03-06 leaping_slash_radiusability:leaping_slash Nerf 4.5m 4m Leaping Slash radius reduced from 4.5m to 4m
2026-03-06 leaping_slash_scalingability:leaping_slash Nerf 1.5 1 Leaping Slash scaling reduced from 1.5 to 1.2
2026-03-06 leaping_slash_scalingability:leaping_slash Nerf 1.2 0 Leaping Slash scaling reduced from 1.2 to 0.8
2026-03-06 leaping_slash_t2ability:leaping_slash Rework +40 damage +300 souls on hero kill Leaping Slash T2 changed from +40 damage to +300 souls on hero kill
2026-03-06 leaping_slash_t2ability:leaping_slash Nerf 300 Souls 225 Leaping Slash T2 reduced from 300 Souls to 225
2026-03-06 leaping_slash_t2ability:leaping_slash Nerf "+225s within 4s" "+200 within 3s" Leaping Slash T2 reduced from "+225s within 4s" to "+200 within 3s"
2026-03-06 leaping_slash_t3ability:leaping_slash Rework -50% CDR on hit -50% CDR and +60 damage Leaping Slash T3 changed from -50% CDR on hit to -50% CDR and +60 damage
2026-03-06 return_to_shadowsability:return_to_shadows Rework Return To Shadows now allows for some vertical flight movement during channel
2026-03-06 return_to_shadowsability:return_to_shadows Rework Return To Shadows now has new channel bar
2026-03-06 return_to_shadows_cooldownability:return_to_shadows Buff 90s 100s Return to Shadows cooldown increased from 90s to 100s
2026-03-06 return_to_shadows_move_speedability:return_to_shadows Nerf 30% 20% Return to Shadows move speed reduced from 30% to 20%
2026-03-06 return_to_shadows_t2ability:return_to_shadows Nerf 67.5 Damage 65 Return to Shadows T2 reduced from 67.5 Damage to 65
2026-03-06 return_to_shadows_t3ability:return_to_shadows Nerf Return to Shadows T3 no longer grants +18% Damage Amp for 6s, but grants 350 healing instead
2026-03-06 move_speedvitality Nerf 7.2 6 Move speed reduced from 7.2 to 6.8
2026-03-06 now_fires_an_additional_pellet_right_down_the_center_dps_is_the_same_the_centvitality Rework Now fires an additional pellet right down the center (DPS is the same). The center pellet is now considered the primary pellet for headshots.
2026-03-06 bulletsweapon Nerf Bullets no longer have gravity
2025-11-21 gloom_bombs_cooldownability:gloom_bombs Buff 12s 14s Gloom Bombs cooldown increased from 12s to 14s
2025-11-21 return_to_shadows_t3_damage_ampability:return_to_shadows Nerf +24% +18% Return To Shadows T3 Damage Amp reduced from +24% to +18%
2025-11-21 return_to_shadows_t3_durationability:return_to_shadows Buff 5s 6s Return To Shadows T3 duration increased from 5s to 6s
2025-11-21 clip_sizevitality Buff 10 12 Clip size increased from 10 to 12
2025-11-21 reload_timeweapon Buff 2.5s 2 Reload time increased from 2.5s to 2.6s
Deadlock
Hero Balance Predictions
Calico buff/nerf prototype
Forecasts whether Calico is likely to change next patch, using recent patch history and the Calico predictor DuckDB.