Deadlock Hero Balance Predictions
Billy buff/nerf predictor prototype
Generated from the Billy predictor DuckDB, recent patch history, and a three-stage prediction model.
Prediction Model
Billy Buff/Nerf Watch
This page is the hero-side version of the item prediction screen. The target is whether a hero looks more likely to be buffed, nerfed, or left alone in a future patch. This first page is Billy-only so the predictors can be reviewed before expanding to every hero.
Best read: this is now a three-stage experiment. It first asks whether Billy is likely to change, then which broad mechanic would be selected, then the direction of that selected mechanic. Later stages are conditional and must not be read as standalone certainty.
- Stage 1
- Will Billy receive any balance change in the next patch?
- Stage 2
- If Billy changes, which mechanic family is most likely to be selected?
- Stage 3
- If that family is selected, does its patch direction look like buff, nerf, or mixed/rework?
- Future learning
- Weekly snapshots preserve hero stats and ability values over time. They are enabled as model features only after changed and unchanged patches both have adequate coverage.
Three-Stage Next-Patch Forecast
1
Will Billy change?
12.4%
Estimated chance of any Billy balance change. No-change estimate: 87.6%.
Disclaimer: Experimental. This is based on one hero's patch history and has not been proven accurate — Stage 1 and Stage 2 don't yet beat a simple "no change" guess on holdout data. Treat every number on this page as a rough signal, not a confirmed forecast.
Stages 2 and 3: target and direction if Billy changes
| Mechanic | Selected if changed | Direction | Buff if selected | Nerf if selected | Mixed/rework if selected | Combined priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spirit | 5.5% | Nerf | 38.2% | 40.8% | 20.9% | 0.7% |
| Rising Ram | 4.9% | Buff | 64.8% | 22.7% | 12.5% | 0.6% |
| Vitality | 1.7% | Buff | 47.2% | 30.4% | 22.5% | 0.2% |
| Chain Gang | 1.5% | Buff | 50.8% | 29.2% | 20.0% | 0.2% |
| Weapon | 1.2% | Buff | 46.9% | 31.0% | 22.2% | 0.2% |
| Blasted | 0.9% | Buff | 48.2% | 30.3% | 21.5% | 0.1% |
| Bashdown | 0.9% | Buff | 46.0% | 31.2% | 22.8% | 0.1% |
Combined priority multiplies Stage 1 by Stage 2 to help sort the watchlist. It is not a calibrated probability that the named mechanic will change.
Validation and Data Readiness
Every stage uses older patches for training and newer patches for testing. The current patch calendar contains 138 update dates through 2026-06-12.
| Stage | Test rows | Balanced accuracy | Macro F1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stage 1 - hero changedWhether Billy receives any balance change. | 28 | 50.0% | 0.472 |
| Stage 2 - mechanic selectedWhich mechanic family is selected if Billy changes. | 196 | 50.0% | 0.490 |
| Stage 3 - conditional directionBuff, nerf, or mixed/rework after a mechanic is selected. | 3 | 25.0% | 0.222 |
Performance feature gate: withheld. Historical pre-patch win-rate coverage is 0.0%; the required coverage is 80.0%. Performance features are withheld because missingness is too sparse or too strongly associated with whether Billy changed.
The weekly collector now stores all hero performance, base stats, and ability properties without overwriting prior snapshots. Once enough unchanged and changed patches have comparable coverage, performance and ability-strength features can enter training without leaking the answer.
Billy Patch Changes
32 Billy patch-change rows are included from the recent patch window.
| Patch | Predictor | Direction | Before | After | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-22 | rising_ram_cooldownability:rising_ram | Buff | 30s | 32s | Rising Ram cooldown increased from 30s to 32s |
| 2026-05-22 | rising_ram_t2ability:rising_ram | Buff | +0.3s Duration | +0 | Rising Ram T2 increased from +0.3s Duration to +0.4s |
| 2026-05-22 | rising_ram_t3ability:rising_ram | Buff | -10s Cooldown | -13s | Rising Ram T3 increased from -10s Cooldown to -13s |
| 2026-05-22 | health_per_boonvitality | Buff | +48 | +59 | Health per boon increased from +48 to +59 |
| 2026-05-22 | bullet_damage_per_boonweapon | Nerf | 0.165 | 0 | Bullet damage per boon reduced from 0.165 to 0.142 |
| 2026-04-30 | rising_ram_t3ability:rising_ram | Buff | Rising Ram T3 now also reduces cooldown by 10s | ||
| 2026-03-06 | bashdown_radiusability:bashdown | Nerf | 4.5m | 4m | Bashdown radius reduced from 4.5m to 4m |
| 2026-03-06 | bashdown_t2ability:bashdown | Rework | "+1.3m Radius" | "+1 Charge and +2m Radius" | Bashdown T2 changed from "+1.3m Radius" to "+1 Charge and +2m Radius" |
| 2026-03-06 | bashdown_t3ability:bashdown | Buff | Bashdown T3 now also reduces charge time by 2s | ||
| 2026-03-06 | blasted_active_durationability:blasted | Nerf | Blasted active duration no longer slows down the decay when doing bullet damage (melee still extends it though) | ||
| 2026-03-06 | blasted_passiveability:blasted | Nerf | Blasted passive no longer reduces enemy fire rate by -14% | ||
| 2026-03-06 | blasted_spirit_scalingability:blasted | Nerf | 0.8 | 0 | Blasted spirit scaling reduced from 0.8 to 0.6 |
| 2026-03-06 | blasted_t3ability:blasted | Buff | Blasted T3 now also increases spirit scaling by +0.6 | ||
| 2026-03-06 | blasted_tooltip_simplifiedability:blasted | Rework | Blasted tooltip simplified | ||
| 2026-03-06 | chain_gangability:chain_gang | Nerf | Chain Gang no longer grants +15% Spirit and Bullet Resist | ||
| 2026-03-06 | chain_gang_cooldownability:chain_gang | Buff | 125s | 150s | Chain Gang cooldown increased from 125s to 150s |
| 2026-03-06 | chain_gang_radiusability:chain_gang | Nerf | 13m | 12m | Chain Gang radius reduced from 13m to 12m |
| 2026-03-06 | chain_gang_t1ability:chain_gang | Rework | "-25s Cooldown" | "+40% Spirit and Bullet Resist" | Chain Gang T1 changed from "-25s Cooldown" to "+40% Spirit and Bullet Resist" |
| 2026-03-06 | chain_gang_t2ability:chain_gang | Rework | "+15% Spirit and Bullet Resist" | "-50s Cooldown" | Chain Gang T2 changed from "+15% Spirit and Bullet Resist" to "-50s Cooldown" |
| 2026-03-06 | chain_gang_t3ability:chain_gang | Buff | Chain Gang T3 now also increases the radius by +5m | ||
| 2026-03-06 | chain_gang_t3ability:chain_gang | Nerf | Chain Gang T3 no longer grants +90 damage | ||
| 2026-03-06 | chain_gang_t3ability:chain_gang | Rework | 2s Unstoppable | +1 | Chain Gang T3 changed from 2s Unstoppable to +1.3s Unstoppable for each hero pulled in |
| 2026-03-06 | rising_ramability:rising_ram | Rework | Rising Ram now uses a break-off angle when grounded, allowing upward movement if looking up enough | ||
| 2026-03-06 | rising_ram_charge_durationability:rising_ram | Nerf | 0.51s | 0 | Rising Ram charge duration reduced from 0.51s to 0.3s |
| 2026-03-06 | rising_ram_cooldownability:rising_ram | Nerf | Rising Ram cooldown reduced by 50% on impact | ||
| 2026-03-06 | rising_ram_damageability:rising_ram | Nerf | 55 | 40 | Rising Ram damage reduced from 55 to 40 |
| 2026-03-06 | rising_ram_damage_spirit_scalingability:rising_ram | Buff | 1.7 | 1 | Rising Ram damage spirit scaling increased from 1.7 to 1.9 |
| 2026-03-06 | rising_ram_t1ability:rising_ram | Rework | "On Impact: -50% Cooldown" | "On Impact: +25% Weapon Damage for 5s" | Rising Ram T1 changed from "On Impact: -50% Cooldown" to "On Impact: +25% Weapon Damage for 5s" |
| 2026-03-06 | rising_ram_t2ability:rising_ram | Rework | "On Impact: +35% Weapon Damage for 5s" | "+0 | Rising Ram T2 changed from "On Impact: +35% Weapon Damage for 5s" to "+0.3s Charge Duration" |
| 2026-03-06 | rising_ram_t3ability:rising_ram | Buff | 6.5% Max Health | 8% | Rising Ram T3 increased from 6.5% Max Health to 8% |
| 2025-11-21 | rising_ram_t2ability:rising_ram | Buff | +25% Weapon Damage | +35% | Rising Ram T2 increased from +25% Weapon Damage to +35% |
| 2025-11-21 | rising_ram_t3ability:rising_ram | Buff | 6% Max Health as spirit damage | 6 | Rising Ram T3 increased from 6% Max Health as spirit damage to 6.5% |
Hero Balance Predictions
Billy buff/nerf prototype
Forecasts whether Billy is likely to change next patch, using recent patch history and the Billy predictor DuckDB.