Deadlock Hero Balance Predictions
Bebop buff/nerf predictor prototype
Generated from the Bebop predictor DuckDB, recent patch history, and a three-stage prediction model.
Prediction Model
Bebop Buff/Nerf Watch
This page is the hero-side version of the item prediction screen. The target is whether a hero looks more likely to be buffed, nerfed, or left alone in a future patch. This first page is Bebop-only so the predictors can be reviewed before expanding to every hero.
Best read: this is now a three-stage experiment. It first asks whether Bebop is likely to change, then which broad mechanic would be selected, then the direction of that selected mechanic. Later stages are conditional and must not be read as standalone certainty.
- Stage 1
- Will Bebop receive any balance change in the next patch?
- Stage 2
- If Bebop changes, which mechanic family is most likely to be selected?
- Stage 3
- If that family is selected, does its patch direction look like buff, nerf, or mixed/rework?
- Future learning
- Weekly snapshots preserve hero stats and ability values over time. They are enabled as model features only after changed and unchanged patches both have adequate coverage.
Three-Stage Next-Patch Forecast
1
Will Bebop change?
19.9%
Estimated chance of any Bebop balance change. No-change estimate: 80.1%.
Disclaimer: Experimental. This is based on one hero's patch history and has not been proven accurate — Stage 1 and Stage 2 don't yet beat a simple "no change" guess on holdout data. Treat every number on this page as a rough signal, not a confirmed forecast.
Stages 2 and 3: target and direction if Bebop changes
| Mechanic | Selected if changed | Direction | Buff if selected | Nerf if selected | Mixed/rework if selected | Combined priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weapon | 13.3% | Buff | 36.9% | 34.6% | 28.4% | 2.7% |
| Sticky Bomb | 11.8% | Buff | 37.9% | 24.3% | 37.7% | 2.3% |
| Exploding Uppercut | 11.1% | Nerf | 37.4% | 39.1% | 23.5% | 2.2% |
| Vitality | 9.6% | Mixed Or Rework | 34.8% | 25.9% | 39.3% | 1.9% |
| Grapple Arm | 2.3% | Nerf | 31.9% | 39.9% | 28.2% | 0.5% |
| Hyper Beam | 2.2% | Nerf | 31.9% | 39.9% | 28.2% | 0.4% |
| Spirit | 1.8% | Nerf | 31.9% | 39.9% | 28.2% | 0.4% |
Combined priority multiplies Stage 1 by Stage 2 to help sort the watchlist. It is not a calibrated probability that the named mechanic will change.
Validation and Data Readiness
Every stage uses older patches for training and newer patches for testing. The current patch calendar contains 138 update dates through 2026-06-12.
| Stage | Test rows | Balanced accuracy | Macro F1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stage 1 - hero changedWhether Bebop receives any balance change. | 28 | 50.0% | 0.472 |
| Stage 2 - mechanic selectedWhich mechanic family is selected if Bebop changes. | 196 | 50.0% | 0.492 |
| Stage 3 - conditional directionBuff, nerf, or mixed/rework after a mechanic is selected. | 2 | 0.0% | 0.000 |
Performance feature gate: withheld. Historical pre-patch win-rate coverage is 0.0%; the required coverage is 80.0%. Performance features are withheld because missingness is too sparse or too strongly associated with whether Bebop changed.
The weekly collector now stores all hero performance, base stats, and ability properties without overwriting prior snapshots. Once enough unchanged and changed patches have comparable coverage, performance and ability-strength features can enter training without leaking the answer.
Bebop Patch Changes
13 Bebop patch-change rows are included from the recent patch window.
| Patch | Predictor | Direction | Before | After | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-12 | exploding_uppercut_t3ability:exploding_uppercut | Buff | +17% Missing Health | +18% | Exploding Uppercut T3 increased from +17% Missing Health to +18% |
| 2026-06-12 | fixed_sticky_bomb_t3_duration_ending_once_the_bomb_went_off_rather_than_the_5s_dability:sticky_bomb | Rework | Fixed Sticky Bomb T3 duration ending once the bomb went off rather than the 5s duration | ||
| 2026-06-12 | sticky_bomb_t3ability:sticky_bomb | Rework | "On Cast: +5m Move Speed and +20% Fire Rate for 5s" | "On Cast: +5m Move Speed and +25% Debuff Resistance for 6s" (applies retroactively) | Sticky Bomb T3 changed from "On Cast: +5m Move Speed and +20% Fire Rate for 5s" to "On Cast: +5m Move Speed and +25% Debuff Resistance for 6s" (applies retroactively) |
| 2026-05-22 | exploding_uppercut_t2_weapon_damageability:exploding_uppercut | Nerf | +40% | +30% | Exploding Uppercut T2 weapon damage reduced from +40% to +30% |
| 2026-05-22 | sticky_bomb_t2ability:sticky_bomb | Buff | +75 Damage | +85 | Sticky Bomb T2 increased from +75 Damage to +85 |
| 2026-05-22 | bullet_damage_per_boonweapon | Nerf | 0.139 | 0 | Bullet damage per boon reduced from 0.139 to 0.115 |
| 2026-03-06 | hook_canvitality | Rework | Hook can now be canceled | ||
| 2025-11-21 | exploding_uppercut_cooldownability:exploding_uppercut | Buff | 19s | 22s | Exploding Uppercut cooldown increased from 19s to 22s |
| 2025-11-21 | exploding_uppercut_spirit_scalingability:exploding_uppercut | Buff | 0.49 | 0 | Exploding Uppercut spirit scaling increased from 0.49 to 0.6 |
| 2025-11-21 | sticky_bomb_t3ability:sticky_bomb | Rework | "On Attach: -30% Outgoing Damage for 5s" | "On Cast: +5 m/s for 3s" | Sticky Bomb T3 changed from "On Attach: -30% Outgoing Damage for 5s" to "On Cast: +5 m/s for 3s". Multiple instances stack independently. |
| 2025-11-21 | health_growthvitality | Nerf | 54 | 46 | Health growth reduced from 54 to 46 |
| 2025-11-21 | hyperbeam_dpsvitality | Nerf | 190 | 160 | Hyperbeam DPS reduced from 190 to 160 |
| 2025-11-21 | hyperbeam_t2vitality | Buff | +90 | +120 | Hyperbeam T2 increased from +90 to +120 |
Hero Balance Predictions
Bebop buff/nerf prototype
Forecasts whether Bebop is likely to change next patch, using recent patch history and the Bebop predictor DuckDB.