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Prediction Model

Baba Buff/Nerf Watch

This page is the hero-side version of the item prediction screen. The target is whether a hero looks more likely to be buffed, nerfed, or left alone in a future patch. This first page is Baba-only so the predictors can be reviewed before expanding to every hero.

Best read: this is now a three-stage experiment. It first asks whether Baba is likely to change, then which broad mechanic would be selected, then the direction of that selected mechanic. Later stages are conditional and must not be read as standalone certainty.

Stage 1: Will Baba receive any balance change in the next patch?
Stage 2: If Baba changes, which mechanic family is most likely to be selected?
Stage 3: If that family is selected, does its patch direction look like buff, nerf, or mixed/rework?
Future learning: Weekly snapshots preserve hero stats and ability values over time. They are enabled as model features only after changed and unchanged patches both have adequate coverage.

Three-Stage Next-Patch Forecast

1

Will Baba change?

66.7%

Estimated chance of any Baba balance change. No-change estimate: 33.3%.

Disclaimer: Experimental. This is based on one hero's patch history and has not been proven accurate — Stage 1 and Stage 2 don't yet beat a simple "no change" guess on holdout data. Treat every number on this page as a rough signal, not a confirmed forecast.

Stages 2 and 3: target and direction if Baba changes

Mechanic	Selected if changed	Direction	Buff if selected	Nerf if selected	Mixed/rework if selected	Combined priority
Baba S Brew	29.3%	Nerf	0.0%	53.9%	46.1%	19.6%
Spirit	29.0%	Nerf	0.0%	84.3%	15.7%	19.4%
Threadsap	28.7%	Nerf	0.0%	71.9%	28.1%	19.2%
Granny Long Legs	26.9%	Nerf	0.0%	68.3%	31.7%	17.9%
Weapon	22.3%	Nerf	0.0%	80.4%	19.6%	14.9%
Vitality	5.0%	Nerf	0.0%	56.5%	43.5%	3.3%
Feed The Birds	4.4%	Nerf	0.0%	56.5%	43.5%	2.9%

Combined priority multiplies Stage 1 by Stage 2 to help sort the watchlist. It is not a calibrated probability that the named mechanic will change.

Validation and Data Readiness

Every stage uses older patches for training and newer patches for testing. The current patch calendar contains 168 update dates through 2026-11-05.

Stage	Test rows	Balanced accuracy	Macro F1
Stage 1 - hero changedWhether Baba receives any balance change.	34	50.0%	0.477
Stage 2 - mechanic selectedWhich mechanic family is selected if Baba changes.	238	50.0%	0.486
Stage 3 - conditional directionBuff, nerf, or mixed/rework after a mechanic is selected.	4	33.3%	0.333

Performance feature gate: withheld. Historical pre-patch win-rate coverage is 6.0%; the required coverage is 80.0%. Performance features are withheld because missingness is too sparse or too strongly associated with whether Baba changed.

The weekly collector now stores all hero performance, base stats, and ability properties without overwriting prior snapshots. Once enough unchanged and changed patches have comparable coverage, performance and ability-strength features can enter training without leaking the answer.

Baba Patch Changes

30 Baba patch-change rows are included from the recent patch window.

Patch	Predictor	Direction	Before	After	Notes
2026-11-05	baba_s_brew_burn_dps_spirit_scalingability:baba_s_brew	Nerf	0.15	0	Baba's Brew - Burn DPS spirit scaling reduced from 0.15 to 0.13
2026-11-05	baba_s_brew_cooldownability:baba_s_brew	Buff	27s	28s	Baba's Brew - Cooldown increased from 27s to 28s
2026-11-05	baba_s_brew_cycle_timeability:baba_s_brew	Buff	1.5s	1	Baba's Brew - Cycle time increased from 1.5s to 1.6s
2026-11-05	granny_long_legs_debuff_resistability:granny_long_legs	Nerf	30%	25%	Granny Long Legs - Debuff Resist reduced from 30% to 25%
2026-11-05	granny_long_legs_melee_resistability:granny_long_legs	Nerf	30%	25%	Granny Long Legs - Melee Resist reduced from 30% to 25%
2026-11-05	spirit_resistance_scalingspirit	Nerf	0.7	0	Spirit Resistance scaling reduced from 0.7 to 0.5
2026-11-05	melee_damage_per_boonweapon	Nerf			Melee damage per boon reduced by 10%
2026-10-30	baba_s_brewability:baba_s_brew	Nerf			Baba's Brew - No longer has an initial brew time
2026-10-30	baba_s_brew_brew_order_isability:baba_s_brew	Rework			Baba's Brew - Brew order is now random each time she casts it
2026-10-30	baba_s_brew_cycle_time_between_each_type_of_brewability:baba_s_brew	Buff	1s	1	Baba's Brew - Cycle time between each type of brew increased from 1s to 1.5s
2026-10-30	baba_s_brew_silence_durationability:baba_s_brew	Nerf	3s	2	Baba's Brew - Silence duration reduced from 3s to 2.75s
2026-10-30	baba_s_brew_ui_indicator_colorability:baba_s_brew	Rework			Baba's Brew - UI indicator color now matches the current brew
2026-10-30	granny_long_legs_heavy_melee_cooldownability:granny_long_legs	Nerf	1.4s	1	Granny Long Legs - Heavy Melee cooldown reduced from 1.4s to 1.2s (default is 1.0s)
2026-10-30	granny_long_legs_heavy_melee_slow_durationability:granny_long_legs	Nerf	4s	2s	Granny Long Legs - Heavy Melee slow duration reduced from 4s to 2s
2026-10-30	granny_long_legs_heavy_melee_stompability:granny_long_legs	Rework			Granny Long Legs - Heavy melee stomp now only hits the closest Rejuvenator in range
2026-10-30	granny_long_legs_light_melee_knockback_distanceability:granny_long_legs	Nerf	10m	8m	Granny Long Legs - Light Melee knockback distance reduced from 10m to 8m
2026-10-30	threadsap_spirit_steal_durationability:threadsap	Nerf	22s	16s	Threadsap - Spirit Steal duration reduced from 22s to 16s
2026-10-30	threadsap_when_a_victim_cleanses_the_threadsap_debuff_the_matching_spirit_baba_gained_is_alsoability:threadsap	Nerf			Threadsap - When a victim cleanses the Threadsap debuff, the matching spirit Baba gained is also removed
2026-10-30	spirit_resist_scalingspirit	Nerf	0.1	0	Spirit Resist scaling reduced from 0.1 to 0.07
2026-10-15	baba_s_brew_barrierability:baba_s_brew	Nerf	100	90	Baba's Brew - Barrier reduced from 100 to 90
2026-10-15	baba_s_brew_barrier_scalingability:baba_s_brew	Nerf	1.2	0	Baba's Brew - Barrier scaling reduced from 1.2 to 0.7
2026-10-15	baba_s_brew_cooldownability:baba_s_brew	Buff	25s	27s (moved to T2)	Baba's Brew - Cooldown increased from 25s to 27s (moved to T2)
2026-10-15	granny_long_legs_cooldownability:granny_long_legs	Buff	30s	32s	Granny Long Legs - Cooldown increased from 30s to 32s
2026-10-15	granny_long_legs_heavy_melee_ground_poundability:granny_long_legs	Nerf			Granny Long Legs - Heavy melee ground pound no longer gains horizontal speed when landing on slopes
2026-10-15	granny_long_legs_light_melee_upward_launchability:granny_long_legs	Nerf			Granny Long Legs - Light melee upward launch reduced (looking up no longer lifts her as high)
2026-10-15	granny_long_legs_repeat_light_melees_while_airborneability:granny_long_legs	Rework			Granny Long Legs - Repeat light melees while airborne now have diminishing forward momentum
2026-10-15	threadsap_cooldownability:threadsap	Buff	26s	28s	Threadsap - Cooldown increased from 26s to 28s
2026-10-15	threadsap_spirit_reduction_on_enemiesability:threadsap	Rework			Threadsap - Spirit reduction on enemies now ends when Baba dies
2026-10-15	spirit_resistance_scalingspirit	Nerf	0.12	0	Spirit Resistance scaling reduced from 0.12 to 0.1
2026-10-15	now_has_7_base_bullet_resistanceweapon	Rework			Now has -7% Base Bullet Resistance