Deadlock Hero Balance Predictions
Apollo buff/nerf predictor prototype
Generated from the Apollo predictor DuckDB, recent patch history, and a three-stage prediction model.
Prediction Model

Apollo Buff/Nerf Watch

This page is the hero-side version of the item prediction screen. The target is whether a hero looks more likely to be buffed, nerfed, or left alone in a future patch. This first page is Apollo-only so the predictors can be reviewed before expanding to every hero.

Best read: this is now a three-stage experiment. It first asks whether Apollo is likely to change, then which broad mechanic would be selected, then the direction of that selected mechanic. Later stages are conditional and must not be read as standalone certainty.
Stage 1
Will Apollo receive any balance change in the next patch?
Stage 2
If Apollo changes, which mechanic family is most likely to be selected?
Stage 3
If that family is selected, does its patch direction look like buff, nerf, or mixed/rework?
Future learning
Weekly snapshots preserve hero stats and ability values over time. They are enabled as model features only after changed and unchanged patches both have adequate coverage.
Three-Stage Next-Patch Forecast
1

Will Apollo change?

36.8%

Estimated chance of any Apollo balance change. No-change estimate: 63.2%.

Disclaimer: Experimental. This is based on one hero's patch history and has not been proven accurate — Stage 1 and Stage 2 don't yet beat a simple "no change" guess on holdout data. Treat every number on this page as a rough signal, not a confirmed forecast.

Stages 2 and 3: target and direction if Apollo changes

Mechanic Selected if changed Direction Buff if selected Nerf if selected Mixed/rework if selected Combined priority
Itani Lo Sahn 26.4% Mixed Or Rework 20.0% 5.6% 74.4% 9.7%
Riposte 12.6% Mixed Or Rework 16.2% 4.7% 79.1% 4.6%
Vitality 7.9% Mixed Or Rework 33.7% 26.2% 40.1% 2.9%
Flawless Advance 7.5% Mixed Or Rework 20.9% 11.8% 67.2% 2.8%
Disengaging Sigil 6.7% Mixed Or Rework 24.8% 23.2% 52.0% 2.5%
Weapon 5.0% Mixed Or Rework 32.0% 21.1% 46.9% 1.9%
Spirit 1.7% Mixed Or Rework 32.8% 23.3% 43.9% 0.6%

Combined priority multiplies Stage 1 by Stage 2 to help sort the watchlist. It is not a calibrated probability that the named mechanic will change.

Validation and Data Readiness

Every stage uses older patches for training and newer patches for testing. The current patch calendar contains 151 update dates through 2026-09-16.

Stage Test rows Balanced accuracy Macro F1
Stage 1 - hero changedWhether Apollo receives any balance change. 31 50.0% 0.436
Stage 2 - mechanic selectedWhich mechanic family is selected if Apollo changes. 217 50.0% 0.482
Stage 3 - conditional directionBuff, nerf, or mixed/rework after a mechanic is selected. 3 0.0% 0.000
Performance feature gate: withheld. Historical pre-patch win-rate coverage is 8.6%; the required coverage is 80.0%. Performance features are withheld because missingness is too sparse or too strongly associated with whether Apollo changed.

The weekly collector now stores all hero performance, base stats, and ability properties without overwriting prior snapshots. Once enough unchanged and changed patches have comparable coverage, performance and ability-strength features can enter training without leaking the answer.

Apollo Patch Changes

41 Apollo patch-change rows are included from the recent patch window.

Patch Predictor Direction Before After Notes
2026-08-12 fixed_itani_lo_sahn_being_canceled_with_movement_abilitiesability:itani_lo_sahn Rework Fixed Itani Lo Sahn being canceled with movement abilities
2026-08-12 riposte_melee_resist_reductionability:riposte Buff -22% -25% Riposte melee resist reduction increased from -22% to -25%
2026-08-12 riposte_t2ability:riposte Rework "-30% Melee Resist" "-25% Melee Resist and +0 Riposte T2 changed from "-30% Melee Resist" to "-25% Melee Resist and +0.4s Stun Duration"
2026-08-12 riposte_t3ability:riposte Buff 60% Lifesteal for 7s 75% Lifesteal for 13s Riposte T3 increased from 60% Lifesteal for 7s to 75% Lifesteal for 13s
2026-07-28 riposte_base_stun_durationability:riposte Buff 0.6s 0 Riposte base stun duration increased from 0.6s to 0.8s
2026-07-28 riposte_t3ability:riposte Rework +1.6s Stun Duration +60% Bullet, Spirit and Melee Lifesteal against the target for 7s Riposte T3 changed from +1.6s Stun Duration to +60% Bullet, Spirit and Melee Lifesteal against the target for 7s
2026-06-30 flawless_advance_heal_on_hero_hit_spirit_scalingability:flawless_advance Buff 1 1 Flawless Advance Heal on hero hit spirit scaling increased from 1 to 1.3
2026-06-30 itani_lo_sahn_t3ability:itani_lo_sahn Buff +40% Bonus Damage +50% Itani Lo Sahn T3 increased from +40% Bonus Damage to +50%
2026-06-30 riposte_cast_rangeability:riposte Buff 25m 35m Riposte cast range increased from 25m to 35m
2026-06-30 riposte_grace_window_to_target_after_channelability:riposte Buff +1s +1 Riposte grace window to target after channel increased from +1s to +1.3s
2026-06-30 riposte_t1ability:riposte Buff -7s Cooldown -8s Riposte T1 increased from -7s Cooldown to -8s
2026-06-30 riposte_targeting_angleability:riposte Buff 70 90 Riposte targeting angle increased from 70 to 90
2026-06-12 disengaging_sigilability:disengaging_sigil Rework Disengaging Sigil now allows input to alter the direction apollo launches himself (A/D biases to the left/right and W/S affect how much backwards motion is applied
2026-06-12 disengaging_sigil_t1ability:disengaging_sigil Rework "+30 Damage" "Gain +25% Fire Rate and Bullet Speed for 8s" Disengaging Sigil T1 changed from "+30 Damage" to "Gain +25% Fire Rate and Bullet Speed for 8s"
2026-06-12 disengaging_sigil_t2ability:disengaging_sigil Rework "Gain +30% Fire Rate and +50% Bullet Speed for 10s" "On Player Hit: +1 Stamina restored and resets Air Jump/Dash limit" Disengaging Sigil T2 changed from "Gain +30% Fire Rate and +50% Bullet Speed for 10s" to "On Player Hit: +1 Stamina restored and resets Air Jump/Dash limit"
2026-06-12 disengaging_sigil_t3ability:disengaging_sigil Rework "On Player Hit: +2 stamina restored and reset Air Jump/Dash limit" "Recast within 4s" Disengaging Sigil T3 changed from "On Player Hit: +2 stamina restored and reset Air Jump/Dash limit" to "Recast within 4s"
2026-06-12 disengaging_sigil_velocityability:disengaging_sigil Buff Disengaging Sigil velocity increased by 50%
2026-06-12 disengaging_sigil_velocity_s_vertical_horizontal_ratioability:disengaging_sigil Rework 1.5:1 1:1 Disengaging Sigil velocity's vertical:horizontal ratio changed from 1.5:1 to 1:1
2026-06-12 flawless_advanceability:flawless_advance Rework Flawless Advance now allows Apollo to parry during it
2026-05-31 disengaging_sigil_t2ability:disengaging_sigil Buff +20% Fire Rate +30% Disengaging Sigil T2 increased from +20% Fire Rate to +30%
2026-05-31 flawless_advance_t1_heal_from_30_0_75_to_35_1_0ability:flawless_advance Rework 30+0.75 35+1 Flawless Advance T1 heal from 30+0.75 to 35+1.0
2026-05-31 flawless_advance_t2ability:flawless_advance Buff -10s Cooldown -12s Flawless Advance T2 increased from -10s Cooldown to -12s
2026-05-31 itani_lo_sahn_damageability:itani_lo_sahn Buff 190 200 Itani Lo Sahn damage increased from 190 to 200
2026-05-31 itani_lo_sahn_spirit_scalingability:itani_lo_sahn Buff 2.3 2 Itani Lo Sahn spirit scaling increased from 2.3 to 2.6
2026-05-22 flawless_advance_hitboxability:flawless_advance Nerf Flawless Advance hitbox reduced by 10%
2026-05-22 riposteability:riposte Nerf Riposte no longer automatically dashes. It now grants you a sub ability immediately to target the hero you want to jump to for a brief duration (can target the enemy before the parry to buffer it). Cast range is 25m.
2026-05-22 riposteability:riposte Nerf Riposte no longer triggers on damage auras (things like Flame Dash)
2026-05-22 riposteability:riposte Nerf Riposte no longer triggers off of objective damage
2026-05-22 base_regenvitality Nerf 2 1 Base regen reduced from 2 to 1
2026-05-22 improved_the_hero_s_hitboxes_easier_to_hitvitality Buff Improved the hero's hitboxes (easier to hit)
2026-04-30 disengaging_sigil_base_damageability:disengaging_sigil Nerf 100 85 Disengaging Sigil base damage reduced from 100 to 85
2026-03-06 flawless_advanceability:flawless_advance Rework Flawless Advance now gets interrupted by stun and sleep
2026-03-06 flawless_advance_t2ability:flawless_advance Nerf Flawless Advance T2 no longer increases Apollo's lunge speed
2026-03-06 flawless_advance_t3ability:flawless_advance Buff Flawless Advance T3 now also increases Apollo's attacking lunge speed
2026-03-06 itani_lo_sahn_base_damageability:itani_lo_sahn Nerf 225 190 and spirit scaling increased from 1 Itani Lo Sahn base damage reduced from 225 to 190 and spirit scaling increased from 1.6 to 2.3
2026-03-06 itani_lo_sahn_s_hit_widthability:itani_lo_sahn Nerf Itani Lo Sahn's hit width no longer scales with radius increases
2026-03-06 fixed_riposte_not_leaving_the_ground_when_started_on_the_groundability:riposte Rework Fixed Riposte not leaving the ground when started on the ground
2026-03-06 riposteability:riposte Nerf Riposte no longer triggers from trooper or neutral damage
2026-03-06 riposte_t2_melee_resist_reductionability:riposte Buff -22% -30% Riposte T2 melee resist reduction increased from -22% to -30%
2026-03-06 riposte_t3ability:riposte Buff +1.2s Stun +1 Riposte T3 increased from +1.2s Stun to +1.6s
2026-03-06 bullet_damageweapon Buff 17 18 Bullet damage increased from 17 to 18.5
Deadlock
Hero Balance Predictions
Apollo buff/nerf prototype
Forecasts whether Apollo is likely to change next patch, using recent patch history and the Apollo predictor DuckDB.