Deadlock Hero Balance Predictions
Abrams buff/nerf predictor prototype
Generated from the Abrams predictor DuckDB, recent patch history, and a three-stage prediction model.
Prediction Model

Abrams Buff/Nerf Watch

This page is the hero-side version of the item prediction screen. The target is whether a hero looks more likely to be buffed, nerfed, or left alone in a future patch. This first page is Abrams-only so the predictors can be reviewed before expanding to every hero.

Best read: this is now a three-stage experiment. It first asks whether Abrams is likely to change, then which broad mechanic would be selected, then the direction of that selected mechanic. Later stages are conditional and must not be read as standalone certainty.
Stage 1
Will Abrams receive any balance change in the next patch?
Stage 2
If Abrams changes, which mechanic family is most likely to be selected?
Stage 3
If that family is selected, does its patch direction look like buff, nerf, or mixed/rework?
Future learning
Weekly snapshots preserve hero stats and ability values over time. They are enabled as model features only after changed and unchanged patches both have adequate coverage.
Three-Stage Next-Patch Forecast
1

Will Abrams change?

12.2%

Estimated chance of any Abrams balance change. No-change estimate: 87.8%.

Disclaimer: Experimental. This is based on one hero's patch history and has not been proven accurate — Stage 1 and Stage 2 don't yet beat a simple "no change" guess on holdout data. Treat every number on this page as a rough signal, not a confirmed forecast.

Stages 2 and 3: target and direction if Abrams changes

Mechanic Selected if changed Direction Buff if selected Nerf if selected Mixed/rework if selected Combined priority
Infernal Resilience 6.7% Buff 48.6% 34.5% 16.9% 0.8%
Shoulder Charge 6.1% Nerf 31.7% 55.2% 13.0% 0.7%
Siphon Life 5.4% Nerf 16.1% 70.7% 13.2% 0.7%
Seismic Impact 4.4% Nerf 42.2% 48.9% 8.9% 0.5%
Weapon 3.1% Nerf 34.3% 47.5% 18.2% 0.4%
Vitality 2.6% Nerf 27.8% 40.5% 31.7% 0.3%
Spirit 2.6% Nerf 27.8% 40.5% 31.7% 0.3%

Combined priority multiplies Stage 1 by Stage 2 to help sort the watchlist. It is not a calibrated probability that the named mechanic will change.

Validation and Data Readiness

Every stage uses older patches for training and newer patches for testing. The current patch calendar contains 151 update dates through 2026-09-16.

Stage Test rows Balanced accuracy Macro F1
Stage 1 - hero changedWhether Abrams receives any balance change. 31 50.0% 0.456
Stage 2 - mechanic selectedWhich mechanic family is selected if Abrams changes. 217 50.0% 0.487
Stage 3 - conditional directionBuff, nerf, or mixed/rework after a mechanic is selected. 4 66.7% 0.500
Performance feature gate: withheld. Historical pre-patch win-rate coverage is 29.8%; the required coverage is 80.0%. Performance features are withheld because missingness is too sparse or too strongly associated with whether Abrams changed.

The weekly collector now stores all hero performance, base stats, and ability properties without overwriting prior snapshots. Once enough unchanged and changed patches have comparable coverage, performance and ability-strength features can enter training without leaking the answer.

Abrams Patch Changes

43 Abrams patch-change rows are included from the recent patch window.

Patch Predictor Direction Before After Notes
2026-09-16 infernal_resilience_t3ability:infernal_resilience Buff +8% +9% Infernal Resilience T3 increased from +8% to +9%
2026-09-16 seismic_impact_t3ability:seismic_impact Nerf 6s Unstoppable 5s Seismic Impact T3 reduced from 6s Unstoppable to 5s
2026-06-30 shoulder_charge_t3ability:shoulder_charge Nerf -20s Cooldown -18s Shoulder Charge T3 reduced from -20s Cooldown to -18s
2026-06-30 siphon_life_t3ability:siphon_life Nerf +3m Radius +2m Siphon Life T3 reduced from +3m Radius to +2m
2026-05-22 infernal_resilience_t1_max_healthability:infernal_resilience Rework 1.5 health regen 200 max health Infernal Resilience T1 changed from +1.5 health regen to +200 max health.
2026-05-22 infernal_resilience_t2_melee_lifestealability:infernal_resilience Rework 200 max health 18% melee lifesteal Infernal Resilience T2 changed from 200 max health to 18% melee lifesteal.
2026-05-22 seismic_impact_t2_stun_durationability:seismic_impact Buff 0.7 0.8 Seismic Impact T2 stun bonus increased from 0.7s to 0.8s.
2026-05-22 seismic_impact_t3_unstoppable_durationability:seismic_impact Buff 5 6 Seismic Impact T3 unstoppable duration increased from 5s to 6s.
2026-04-30 shoulder_charge_cancel_speedability:shoulder_charge Fix too high fixed Fixed speed after canceling Shoulder Charge being too high after hitting a hero.
2026-04-30 siphon_life_lifesteal_heroesability:siphon_life Nerf 80% 70% Siphon Life hero lifesteal reduced from 80% to 70%.
2026-04-30 siphon_life_lifesteal_non_heroesability:siphon_life Nerf 40% 35% Siphon Life non-hero lifesteal reduced from 40% to 35%.
2026-03-21 infernal_resilience_t3_damage_regeneratedability:infernal_resilience Buff 7% 8% Infernal Resilience T3 damage regenerated increased from 7% to 8%.
2026-03-21 seismic_impact_heightability:seismic_impact Buff 4 6 Seismic Impact impact height increased from 4m to 6m.
2026-03-21 seismic_impact_t2_stun_durationability:seismic_impact Buff 0.6 0.7 Seismic Impact T2 stun bonus increased from 0.6s to 0.7s.
2026-03-21 seismic_impact_t3_unstoppable_durationability:seismic_impact Buff 4 5 Seismic Impact T3 unstoppable duration increased from 4s to 5s.
2026-03-21 siphon_life_radiusability:siphon_life Buff 7.5 8 Siphon Life range increased from 7.5m to 8m.
2026-03-21 siphon_life_t3_radiusability:siphon_life Nerf 3.5 3 Siphon Life T3 radius bonus reduced from 3.5m to 3m.
2026-03-21 melee_damage_per_boonweapon Buff +10% Melee damage per boon increased by 10%.
2026-03-06 infernal_resilience_t2_max_healthability:infernal_resilience Buff 150 200 Infernal Resilience T2 max health increased from 150 to 200.
2026-03-06 infernal_resilience_t3_debuff_resistability:infernal_resilience Buff 0% 20% Infernal Resilience T3 now adds 20% debuff resistance.
2026-03-06 seismic_impact_damageability:seismic_impact Buff 75 100 Seismic Impact damage increased from 75 to 100.
2026-03-06 seismic_impact_item_useability:seismic_impact Buff disabled enabled Items can be used during Seismic Impact.
2026-03-06 seismic_impact_radiusability:seismic_impact Nerf 10.5 9 Seismic Impact radius reduced from 10.5m to 9m.
2026-03-06 seismic_impact_t2_upgradeability:seismic_impact Rework per-hero HP/fire-rate stun duration Seismic Impact T2 changed from per-hero HP/fire-rate to stun duration.
2026-03-06 seismic_impact_t3_radiusability:seismic_impact Buff 0 6 Seismic Impact T3 adds +6m impact radius.
2026-03-06 seismic_impact_targeting_speedability:seismic_impact Buff faster Seismic Impact targeting became faster.
2026-03-06 shoulder_charge_damageability:shoulder_charge Nerf 37 30 Shoulder Charge damage reduced from 37 to 30.
2026-03-06 shoulder_charge_spirit_scalingability:shoulder_charge Nerf 1.9 1.4 Shoulder Charge spirit scaling reduced from 1.9 to 1.4.
2026-03-06 shoulder_charge_stun_durationability:shoulder_charge Nerf 0.6 0.3 Shoulder Charge wall stun reduced from 0.6s to 0.3s.
2026-03-06 shoulder_charge_t1_slowability:shoulder_charge Rework weapon damage 40% slow Shoulder Charge T1 changed from weapon damage to 40% slow for 3s.
2026-03-06 shoulder_charge_t2_wall_stun_bonusability:shoulder_charge Buff 0.45 0.8 Shoulder Charge T2 wall stun bonus increased from 0.45s to 0.8s.
2026-03-06 shoulder_charge_t3_cooldown_reductionability:shoulder_charge Buff -18 -20 Shoulder Charge T3 cooldown reduction improved from -18s to -20s.
2026-03-06 shoulder_charge_t3_weapon_damageability:shoulder_charge Buff 0 1.5 Shoulder Charge T3 now grants +1.5 weapon damage after hero collision.
2026-03-06 siphon_life_dpsability:siphon_life Nerf 29 22 Siphon Life DPS reduced from 29 to 22.
2026-03-06 siphon_life_dps_spirit_scalingability:siphon_life Buff 0.5 0.6 Siphon Life DPS spirit scaling increased from 0.5 to 0.6.
2026-03-06 siphon_life_lifesteal_heroesability:siphon_life Buff 66% 80% Siphon Life hero lifesteal increased from 66% to 80%.
2026-03-06 siphon_life_lifesteal_non_heroesability:siphon_life Buff 33% 40% Siphon Life non-hero lifesteal increased from 33% to 40%.
2026-03-06 siphon_life_radiusability:siphon_life Nerf 10 7.5 Siphon Life range reduced from 10m to 7.5m.
2026-03-06 siphon_life_radius_spirit_scalingability:siphon_life Nerf scaled removed Siphon Life radius no longer scales with Spirit Power.
2026-03-06 siphon_life_t1_cooldown_reductionability:siphon_life Buff -19 -20 Siphon Life T1 cooldown reduction improved from -19s to -20s.
2026-03-06 siphon_life_t3_dpsability:siphon_life Nerf 20 18 Siphon Life T3 DPS bonus reduced from 20 to 18.
2026-03-06 bullet_damageweapon Nerf 3.86 3.6 Bullet damage reduced from 3.86 to 3.6.
2026-03-06 bullet_damage_per_boonweapon Nerf 0.13 0.1 Bullet damage per boon reduced from 0.13 to 0.1.
Deadlock
Hero Balance Predictions
Abrams buff/nerf prototype
Forecasts whether Abrams is likely to change next patch, using recent patch history and the Abrams predictor DuckDB.